USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W18 D30 Y25USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W18 D30 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅15’ order block
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
CHFUSD trade ideas
USDCHF short: Sellers Getting Ready to DominateAfter a strong impulse from buyers, we saw exhaustion near the highs. Price retraced to a major support zone, but instead of a strong bounce, we got a tight, controlled accumulation range.
the higher timeframe, i.e 4H is in a strong downmove
What’s interesting is the structure within that box: the breakout attempts are weak, volatility is contracting, and there’s a noticeable lack of bullish follow-through—just coiling.
Smart money doesn’t chase—they trap. This triangle near key support is exactly where larger players hide intentions behind "indecision." But to me, the silence screams. This doesn’t look like preparation for a markup—it feels like a setup for distribution under the disguise of consolidation.
I’m anticipating a sellers' takeover.
Entry Idea: Short on breakdown of triangle structure or on a faker as shown on the chart
Stop: Above false breakout wick
Target: Near 0.80408 (based on prior imbalance + clean levels below)
Risk-reward speaks for itself.
Let’s see if the tape reveals what I believe it’s been hiding in plain sight.
Market Analysis: USD/CHF – 4H ChartThe USD/CHF pair is exhibiting a **clear bearish trend** on the 4-hour chart, with price currently consolidating around the **0.81500** level after a sharp decline. This consolidation is forming a **range-bound structure**, with support near the recent H4 low and resistance around the **0.82500** zone.
Key Observations:
Bearish momentum remains dominant, evidenced by lower highs and lower lows.
Price is currently trading just above a well-tested H4 support level.
There are two probable outcomes from this consolidation zone:
Potential Scenarios:
1. Bullish Breakout:
A rejection from the H4 support could see price push back towards the **0.82500** level.
A breakout beyond this resistance could lead to further recovery towards **0.83500** or higher.
2. **Bearish Continuation**:
A break below the H4 support zone would confirm further downside momentum.
This could lead price towards the next key support around **0.80000**, with potential extension to the **0.78500** region.
Conclusion:
USD/CHF is currently at a decision point within a broader bearish structure. Traders should watch for a breakout from the current range to confirm the next directional move, with **0.82500** and **0.80000** acting as critical inflection zones.
Potential bearish drop?USD/CHF has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8253
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38,2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8321
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.8135
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
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USDCHF seems to continue its bearsih rallythe price made a decent pullback, but now it looks like that trend will be bearish as soon as it breaks the marked support level. The overall trend is bearish, and more importantly, DXY is falling sharply, which suggests that the trend will remain downwards. Other useful information has also been given in the chart with also short position been drawn
USD/CHF High-confidence, Trend-Aligned setup. – April 26 2025 1️⃣ Technical Outlook
TF Structure & Momentum Verdict
Weekly (W1) Lower-lows since Jan; bearish OB at 0.8400 caps rallies Bearish
Daily (D1) Clean bearish channel; Friday close < mid-channel Bearish
H4 Consolidation under 0.8335 FVG after liquidity sweep Bearish
Trend-Aligned ✅
2️⃣ Primary Alert Zones (H4)
Zone Price Type Setup Idea
0.8335 – 0.8350 Bearish OB + FVG Break-&-retest short
0.8260 – 0.8250 Weekly swing low TP1 / possible bounce
0.8200 – 0.8180 Liquidity pocket TP2 / extended target
3️⃣ Indicator Snapshot
RSI (H4): 38 → momentum still weak
MACD (D1): below 0, widening histo → bearish pressure
ATR (1 h): ≈ 10 pips (14-period)
Tick Vol (trigger-candle rule): need > 20 % above avg
4️⃣ Fundamental & Sentiment Radar
USD side: Dollar Index 99.25, stabilising after 4-wk slide
Investing.com
CHF side: SNB jawboning risk – talk of curbing CHF strength
Investing.com
Next Red-Flag Events:
FOMC (May 6-7) – full blackout starts Apr 26 00:00 (today)
Home
US ISM Mfg (May 1)
Swiss CPI (May 2)
Net positioning: CFTC shows record CHF longs vs USD → crowded trade (contrarian squeeze risk).
Risk Mood: Equities firm; CHF retains safe-haven bid if risk fades.
5️⃣ Trade Considerations (BEES v2)
Entry Trigger: M15 bearish engulf at 0.8335 OB + volume > 20 %
Rejection Filters: No trade if price < 0.8300 without retest (chase risk)
No-Trade Zone: ±50 pips around 0.8400 HTF resistance unless clean breakout
6️⃣ Risk Management
ATR-based SL: 1.5 × 10 pips ≈ 15 pips
TP Plan:
TP1 0.8260 (≈ 2 R)
TP2 0.8200 (≈ 3 R)
Trail remainder via H1 swing highs
7️⃣ Execution Checklist ✅/❌
HTF trend aligned
Volume surge > 20 % required
Outside 6 h of red-flag release (entry after NY open Mon)
Confidence ≥ High
Price not in No-Trade Zone
8️⃣ Pre-Trade Grading (0–2 each)
Criterion Score
Trend Alignment 2
Confluence Strength 2
Price Behaviour 2
Risk : Reward Quality 2
Event Risk Filtered 1
Total 9 / 10 → Trade Valid
🗺️ Time-Based Volatility Map
Session Expectation
Asia (Sun 17:00-00:00 EST) Likely gap fill, low vol
London (03:00-06:00 EST) Highest probability retest zone
NY (08:00-11:00 EST) USD data spikes; monitor spreads
🧩 Correlation Radar
EUR/CHF also heavy – confirms CHF strength
DXY soft; correlated pairs (USD/CAD, USD/JPY) biased lower
USD/CHF H1 | Rising into a pullback resistanceUSD/CHF is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.8269 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 0.8345 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 0.8194 which is a swing-low support.
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Bullish bounce?The Swissie (USD/CHF) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.8211
1st Support: 0.8114
1st Resistance: 0.8372
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USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W18 D29 Y25USDCHF LONG FORECAST Q2 W18 D29 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅15’ order block
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
USD/CHF Outlook: Bearish Shift ExpectedHello,
FX:USDCHF has experienced further upside, but downside is still expected. CHF maintains a stable monetary policy with a favorable risk stance, though economic data is mixed. Despite this, its safe haven status is influenced by regional factors, with a shift into bearish territory anticipated soon.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
USDCHF – breakout (down), retest and bearish continuation The area between 0.8410 and 0.8330 has been a solid support but recently, price broke (to the downside). Now, price has been pulling back for a re-test and I believe that next week we may see a bearish continuation. Price will also come closer to the 20ema that I rely on as a guide to the mean.
I will be watching this area on a lower time frame, looking for bearish price action to go short. If bearish price action does resume, we are likely to see the round number 0.8000 be achieved.
This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
USDCHF I Intraday Long Opportunity from Support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDCHF Analysis - Listen to video!
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USDCHF | 15M | Needs to break for uptrendHey there my friend;
I’ve prepared my analysis of USD/CHF for you. For USD/CHF to move into an upward trend, it needs to break out of the parallel channel. Once it breaks out of the parallel channel, I’ll share the target levels with you.
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US DOLLAR TO LOOSE THE FIGHT AGAINST THE SWISS FRANC????Good day once again traders on USDCHF we hab=ve a beautiful market structure as you can see the market dipped into our D1 FVG then showed us a bearish market structure shift after breaking the buyside $, combining that with time of day gives us a high propability trade,GOODLUCK!!!
USDCHF possible bullish reversal for 08470 & 0.8530#usdchf weekly bar is a key reversal bar, made a new low, closed towards high. market liquidity sweep below the previous double bottom. weekly key reversal bar is an early indication for bullish reversal. trend is quite bearish. better to wait for correction i.e. 61.8fib level, 70.0fib level and 79.0fib level as well. stop loss below the key reversal bar. Initial take profit level is 0.8470, next one is 0.8525-30.
USD/CHF Trade Setup - Bias: Bearish below 0.8300USD/CHF Trade Setup – April 28
USD/CHF is showing renewed downside pressure, trading around 0.8270 amid increased safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc. Trade-related uncertainty between the US and China and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on risk appetite. Technically, the pair remains in a bearish structure, and sellers are pressing below the key 0.8300 psychological level.
With the Fed in blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting and upcoming US GDP and employment data, volatility could pick up. A break below 0.8250 could open the path toward deeper support at 0.8200. However, if US data surprises to the upside later this week, a recovery back above 0.8300 would invalidate the bearish bias and suggest a retest of 0.8370 resistance.
Bias: Bearish below 0.8300.
Key Levels: Support – 0.8250 / 0.8200 | Resistance – 0.8300 / 0.8370.
Risk Event: US Q1 GDP and NFP releases later this week.
#USDCHF #Forex #TradeSetup #TechnicalAnalysis