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Swiss Franc / U.S. Dollar

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CHFUSD trade ideas

USDCHF → Breakout of wedge resistance. CPI aheadFX:USDCHF is showing positive signs of willingness to continue the uptrend. The dollar is consolidating in the meantime in anticipation of CPI, which creates risks for us The currency pair is testing the support at 0.877 as part of the correction. A false breakdown and a reversal pattern is formed, which indicates the end of the correction. The price updates the local lows, and on the 4-hour timeframe it enters the realization phase after breaking the wedge resistance. The focus is on 0.882 - 0.8848. If the bulls keep the defense above this zone even after the news, the growth of the currency pair will continue in the future, as the key liquidity zones are still untested Resistance levels: 0.8848, 0.8887 Support levels: 0.882, 0.880 CPI is ahead and traders are not yet ready to take active action prematurely. The report may form a medium-term potential. A break of 0.8848 will be the trigger for continued upside. But, the structure will be broken if the market breaks 0.876 Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
2
USDCHF - Looking for a weaker franc?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. 1. U.S. Budget Deficit: The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit for November reached $367 billion, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the previous year. This rise is primarily attributed to calendar adjustments in benefit payments, which led to approximately $80 billion in additional government spending compared to November 2023. 2. BNP Paribas on Trump’s Tariff Policies: BNP Paribas believes market analysts have underestimated the implications of Trump’s tariff policies and need to take them more seriously. The bank predicts that Trump will implement a significant portion of his tariff threats, even if not entirely. BNP Paribas anticipates these policies will cause a permanent shock to consumer prices in the U.S. while having a temporary effect on inflation. Additionally, the bank expects the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate to remain at 4.5% in 2025, with the U.S. dollar likely to strengthen further, particularly against the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar. 3. Swiss National Bank Cuts Interest Rates: On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the largest rate reduction in a decade. This move was aimed at staying ahead of potential rate cuts by other central banks and curbing the rising value of the Swiss franc.Most economists had predicted a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points. This reduction represents the most significant decrease in borrowing costs since the SNB’s emergency rate cut in January 2015. With inflationary pressures subsiding, the SNB opted for further monetary easing. Inflation in Switzerland fell to 0.7% in November and has remained within the bank’s target range of 0–2% since May 2023. The 0.5% rate cut aims to further stimulate the economy and boost labor market activity. 4. Remarks by SNB President: Thomas Schlegel, president of the Swiss National Bank, stated that the bank considers all aspects of the franc’s value, not just its exchange rate against the euro. While acknowledging the effectiveness of negative interest rates, Schlegel emphasized that the SNB does not favor them but would resort to such measures again if necessary, as they have helped reduce the franc’s attractiveness. 5. Managing the Swiss Franc’s Value: The Swiss franc, known as a global safe-haven currency, often appreciates during periods of market volatility, prompting the SNB to invest significant effort in managing its value. However, UBS has noted that this issue is no longer a major concern: “While the franc has strengthened against the euro, it has weakened against the U.S. dollar, maintaining a relatively stable trade-weighted exchange rate.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
USDCHF H4 | Falling from 127.2% Extension?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.8935, which is a resistance level. Our take profit will be at 0.8886, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be at 0.8999, above the 161.8% Fibo extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Swiss National Bank cuts by half-point, Swissy dipsThe Swiss franc is down on Thursday following the Swiss National Bank rate announcement. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8880, up 0.43% 80on the day at the time of writing. Today's Swiss National Bank meeting was live, with the market uncertain as whether the SNB would cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. In the end, the central bank opted for a jumbo 50-bp cut, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%. The driver for the today's oversized cut was the November inflation report, which came in at -0.1% for a second straight month. Inflation hasn't posted a gain in six months and the SNB is concerned that inflation could fall below the 0%-2% target. The 50-bp cut marks the SNB's biggest rate reduction in 10 years. In its statement, the Bank pointed to lower-than-expected inflation, risks over US economic policy and political uncertainty in Europe. The statement was somewhat dovish, noting that "the forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty". Today's rate cut marks the fourth reduction this year. The SNB has been aggressive in its easing cycle, with the twin goals of avoiding deflation and combating the Swiss franc's appreciation. The SNB does not want a highly-valued Swiss franc as this hurts the critical export sector. The central bank implemented a negative rate policy until mid-2022 and the SNB has not ruled out a return to negative rates. After the meeting, SNB President Martin Schlegel said that today's 50-bp cut had reduced the probability of negative rates. The SNB also released its updated inflation forecast at today's meeting. The September inflation report was revised downwards, with a forecast of 1.1% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025. USD/CHF has pushed above resistance at 0.8860 and is testing resistance at 0.8879. Above, there is resistance at 0.8903 0.8836 and 0.8817 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/CHF price action: bullish momentum after SNB decisionThe Swiss National Bank's unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.5%, the largest reduction since January 2015, has sent the Swiss franc to its lowest value against the US dollar since November 2022. These aggressive cuts aim to bolster Switzerland's economy amidst rising unemployment and global uncertainties by making borrowing more affordable. Meanwhile, the USD/CHF pair has surged above 0.89019, driven by the franc's depreciation and the broader positive sentiment towards the US dollar, which remains strong despite a slight dip. The Federal Reserve's cautious optimism concerning US inflation and a robust labor market suggests a gradual pace of future rate cuts, supporting the dollar's strength relative to the franc. In the short term, if the SNB maintains its accommodative strategy while the Fed takes a measured approach, the USD/CHF's bullish momentum could persist. Traders should stay attuned to upcoming economic data and central bank communications, which will provide crucial insights into monetary policy shifts affecting the USD/CHF exchange rate.
by tastyfx
USDCHF BULLISHUSD/CHF is showing bearish momentum, driven by a rejection at a key resistance level, with strong bearish candles and extended wicks signaling dominant selling pressure. Earlier in the session, a liquidity grab above a prior high triggered buy stops, but the subsequent sharp reversal suggests sellers are taking control. The pair has broken below an intraday ascending trendline, confirming it as resistance upon retest, while bearish divergences on the RSI and MACD indicate weakening bullish momentum. Trading below the 50- and 200-period moving averages, with a death cross forming, reinforces the bearish bias. Additionally, increased volume on downward moves compared to lighter retracements highlights strong selling interest, supporting the potential for continued downside movement. + testing all KL, be careful
Short
by edl75
USDCHF: Bullish Trend Holds Firm Amid SNB's Aggressive Rate CutThere's been minimal follow-through on USDCHF's bullish push this morning after the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 50 basis points instead of the expected 25. The limited reaction is due to the SNB's preemptive approach. They are aggressively cutting rates because inflation is at 0.7%, and with the new rate at 0.5%, the real yield is effectively negative by 30 basis points.The rationale behind this move is to quickly stimulate inflation. The SNB argues that a significant cut now reduces the likelihood of needing negative rates in the future. If their assessment is correct, it could signal a pause in rate cuts, which explains the muted market reaction. From a technical perspective, the USDCHF trend remains firmly bullish as long as the price stays above 0.8810. If the price dips to around 0.8846, traders will likely step in and push it toward 0.89. The move higher would probably stem from correlations between USD/CHF and its peers, as there is still a strong case for the ECB cutting rates further, which could drag down EUR/USD and, consequently, lift USDCHF. What is your take on USDCHF? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
#USDCHF 4HUSDCHF 4-Hour Analysis The USDCHF pair has broken above a significant trendline on the 4-hour chart, signaling a shift in momentum to the upside. Additionally, a buy engulfing candlestick in the breakout area reinforces the bullish outlook, presenting a potential buy opportunity. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Trendline Breakout and Buy Engulfing Area Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position above the breakout level, confirming with bullish price action signals. Traders should monitor for continued bullish momentum with supportive indicators like RSI or MACD trending upward. Proper risk management is essential, with stop-loss orders placed below the breakout level and profit targets set at higher resistance zones.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
USD / CHF SELL OPPORTUNITY . DESCRIPTION OF TRADE IDEA . As we can clearly see head and shoulder pattern , being formed up in 4hr TF , it sells us the idea of potential short opportunity incoming in the future . Secondly , we can see a strong momentum of 4hr bearish candle formed up and making a fractal low , which in many times i have seen goes to retest on the nearest supply or demand area before reversal as per trend ,in this case it is most likely to retest from the 4hr mini supply and go downwards . SCENARIO FOR TRADES HERE . Potential trade for opening of the week Mon to Tuesday and furthest till Wednesday London session. - one could take a short from opening London session on Monday if the price is still on current supply zone . If I was to take this trade I would look to hold onto the next demand zone until of 0.87200 or until Wednesday before red news. Potential trade idea from Wednesday to Friday ( red news zone ) I would look to enter on the trade if the price retest the current supply zone to short , this might give us a proper window to manage risk with small stop loss and bigger lot size. regardless I will be posting the idea through the week as we go along and what market shows us throughout. NOTES : As i align with my confluences and experience of what i have regularly seen in the market to potentially take the trade , i am constantly monitoring key principal of trading to take the trade effectively which are : Market structure fractal structure Ibos - internal break of structure liquidity in line with supply and demand time of trade and risk management .
Short
by rubinGrg
1
USDCHF USDCHF - Bullish Above 0.88000 Current Price: 0.88365 Action: Bullish above 0.88000 Target Levels: 0.8976 0.9093 0.9178 Reason: Price Action: USDCHF has been showing bullish momentum, holding above key support at 0.88000. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is currently in the bullish zone (above 50), indicating upward momentum. MACD: The MACD is above the signal line and showing increasing positive momentum. Trend Confirmation: The pair is in an overall uptrend, as confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. Support at 0.88000 The level at 0.88000 is a key support, and a breakout above this level opens the path for the mentioned targets. Note: Always use proper risk management.
Long
by Al-Reshad