Potential bullish rise?The Swissie (USD/CHF) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.8976
1st Support: 0.8940
1st Resistance: 0.9049
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CHFUSD trade ideas
USDCHF Bearish Rejection from Premium Zone LiquidityTarget0.8793Overview:
The USD/CHF 4-hour chart displays a well-defined Wyckoff Distribution pattern, suggesting a bearish continuation. Price has rejected from an extreme Premium Zone (0.8990 - 0.9050), indicating that sellers are regaining control. The market is now poised for a potential decline toward unmitigated liquidity levels near 0.8793, which serves as the next key support.
Key Technical Analysis:
Buying Climax: The market experienced an aggressive bullish move before forming a Buying Climax (BC), which trapped late buyers.
Sign of Weakness (SOW): A major SOW (Sign of Weakness) confirms bearish intent, with price struggling to sustain above key resistance.
Change of Character (CHoCH): A confirmed shift from bullish to bearish structure, reinforcing the downtrend.
Extreme Premium Zone: The rejection from 0.8990 - 0.9050 acts as a strong supply area where institutions have placed sell orders.
Liquidity Hunt & Retest: The price recently swept liquidity near 0.8990 and is now testing a previous support zone, which is likely to turn into resistance.
Trade Plan:
📌 Entry: Short near 0.8990 - 0.9000 after a retest confirmation.
🎯 Target 1: 0.8800 (Key psychological level).
🎯 Target 2: 0.8793 (Unmitigated liquidity).
🎯 Target 3: 0.8735 (Deeper bearish target).
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 0.9050 to minimize risk.
Swiss franc dips as Swiss GDP declinesThe Swiss franc is down for a second straight trading day. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8980, up 0.38% on the day.
The Swiss economy slowed to 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 0.4% in Q3 and in line with expectations. This was the weakest expansion since Q2 2023. Construction weakened in the fourth quarter but manufacturing and exports rebounded from the previous quarter. Annualized, GDP rose 1.5%, down from 1.9% in Q3, the softest expansion in three quarters.
The weak GDP data supports the case for the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates. The central bank is in the midst of an easing cycle and showed its aggressive side in December when it chopped rates by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%.
The SNB only meets on a quarterly basis, magnifying the importance of each meeting. The next meeting is on March 20 and the markets have priced in a 25-bps cut at close to 100%. There are two key factors that Bank policymakers will be looking ahead of a rate decision - inflation levels and the exchange rate. Inflation has fallen by 0.1% for four consecutive months and is putting pressure on the SNB to continue lowering rates. The next inflation report is on March 5 and another soft report would cement a rate cut at next month's meeting. The SNB also uses monetary policy to ensure that the Swiss franc is not too strong, which would hurt the export sector.
The US releases second-estimate GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 later today. The initial estimate came in at 2.3%, down from 3.2% in the third quarter. The US economy remains strong and inflation has been largely contained. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this year only once or twice, unless the economic data does not evolve as expected.
USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8992. Above, there is resistance at 0.9018
0.8969 and 0.8943 are providing support
PREPARING FOR SHORT POSITIONSUSD/CHF 4H - As you can see price has just traded up and into the Supply Zone I gave out to you all the other day. Now price has traded in, we want to see price reject well so we can prepare to short.
I will be looking at the corrective wave that traded price up and into this zone for a break in the last protected low thats been set. Once we have that we will have reasonable confirmation to presume the new impulse is ready to be printed.
Once we have that break to the downside its just a case of waiting for price to pullback up to set a lower high, this is where we will be looking to enter in from. We can find areas for price to set a lower high by scouting fractal Supply Zones.
These will act as key areas for price to trade us short from. Its just a case of waiting for price to trade up and into these so we can place our positions with as much confluence as possible.
USD/CHF NEXT MOVESell after bearish candle stick pattern, buy after bullish candle stick pattern....
Best bullish pattern , engulfing candle or green hammer
Best bearish pattern , engulfing candle or red shooting star
NOTE: IF YOU CAN'T SEE ANY OF TOP PATTERN IN THE ZONE DO NOT ENTER
Stop lost before pattern
R/R %1/%3
Trade in 5 Min Timeframe, use signals for scalping
USDCHF to continue in the downward move?USDCHF - 24h expiry
Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
Our short term bias remains negative.
Previous support level of 0.8965 broken.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
50 4hour EMA is at 0.8987.
We look to Sell at 0.8987 (stop at 0.9012)
Our profit targets will be 0.8915 and 0.8905
Resistance: 0.8974 / 0.9004 / 0.9020
Support: 0.8950 / 0.8930 / 0.8912
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USDCHF sideways ahead of US GDP figuresThe USDCHF currency pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation.
The key trading level is at 0.8946, the previous consolidation price range, and the rising support trendline zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 0.8946 level could target the upside resistance at 0.9033 followed by the 0.9050 and 0.9087 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 0.8946 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 0.8913 support level followed by 0.8860.
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USDCHF -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
0.89147 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
The ascending flag taking shape suggests we will soon see another leg higher.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 0.89115 on 02/25/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 0.90367, 0.91497, 0.92218 and more heights is expected.
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#USDCHF 4HUSDCHF (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is currently respecting a channel support, indicating that buyers are holding the price within the upward structure. This suggests that the market may continue its upward movement as long as the support remains intact.
Forecast:
A buy opportunity may arise if the price confirms a bounce from the channel support, signaling potential bullish continuation.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered near the channel support after confirmation of bullish price action.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the channel support to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target key resistance levels based on previous price action.
Market Sentiment:
The channel support suggests that buyers are still active in the market. A strong rejection from this level can provide better confirmation for a buy setup.
USD/CHF H4 | Rising into 61.8% Fibonacci resistanceUSD/CHF is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.8995 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.9040 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 0.8918 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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Will the USD/CHF trend continue to decline?USD/CHF news:
👉The USD/CHF pair rose to near 0.8950 on Wednesday in early European trade, snapping a four-day losing streak. The greenback rebounded from an 11-week low as the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach helped limit the greenback’s losses.
👉Meanwhile, a 0.5% rise in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield also contributed to the greenback’s strength
👉However, weak consumer confidence data from the Conference Board could dampen investor sentiment and put selling pressure on the greenback. Together with other disappointing economic indicators, this has reinforced expectations for two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the next one expected in July.
Personal opinion:
👉USD/CHF remains bearish in line with the main trend. There will be a correction to the upside due to the rise in US 10-year bond yields but this is an opportunity for sellers to jump in at better prices
Analysis:
👉Based on important Fibonacci levels and trend lines combined with fundamental information to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Setting up the price zone:
👉Buy USD/CHF 0.8960 – 0.8970
❌SL: 0.9010 | ✅TP: 0.8920 – 0.8880– 1.0600
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Potential bullish rise?USD/CHF has reacted of the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8918
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 0.8881
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.9006
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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