#005 USDCHF Moving Average 0308SGT 01042025Add : I pasted a screenshot of how price looks like on the 5 Minutes Time Frame at the current swing high.
Price is stabbing the Major Resistance area, so, I guess the market players are content with the current price, and also, volume is sloping downwards, which shows that actually the market is quiet so the price is ranging at the major resistance area.
Would price go in my favour or against me? There's no telling to be honest. All I could do is to manage my trades and what I tell myself in my head.
0318SGT 01042025
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Shorting USDCHF as price retraces sharply back to the Major Resistance area as shown on the chart.
I am shorting because I think price is being manipulated right now, with the huge spike upwards to the resistance area, institutions are trying to sweep up the liquidity for USD, maybe to buy more stocks as the US stocks is down currently into its 6th week after Trumps win, I think.
I heard that TikTok US is going to be sold to a US firm. Not sure how true it is.
I held my breath for like 10 days or so in the last 10 days of March because I already made some profits in my Oanda mt4 account, and broke even on TradingView paper account.
I'll be taking this trade only for now as a set, and then I would be taking a break. I'll be going for stupid reservist next week. I feel so anxious but no choice.
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I'll be pasting what I mentioned in Ideas section below.
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I wanna sell here, but i wouldn't.
I would wait until 12 pm which is in 1 hour 7 minutes later.
I have other pairs on standby which has also touched the Major resistance and Major support already, but I am holding myself back because I promised myself that I would not trade in March anymore after getting +2.9R profit in March after 3 trades on Oanda mt4, and +0.004R profit on tradingview paper trade.
2255SGT 31032025
Just placed a Sell Limit at 0.88504, SL at 0.88737 going for 2R TP at 0.88039.
Some other pairs I am looking at has either gone without me or and in an unstable situation I am not comfortable with, so I am couldn't join them at my preferred price level, or am not going to join them.
CADCHF went without me at the support of the up channel.
EURAUD, USDSGD, GBPCAD, GBPAUD went without me, too bad.
0039SGT 01042025
Will be removing the Sell Limit if price continues without me.
Today is the first day of April so lets relax abit, even though I am actually raring to go.
I didn't get my dopamine from outside today(go do some delivery jobs) so my mental state isn't that stable, so, I better take some time and chill.
0040SGT 01042025
Will be updating the journal if I do enter the sell limit.
Also want to add, if you look at the 5 Minutes time frame, you would see price stabbing at the Major Resistance level, as the institutions are grabbing the liquidity for a push in either directions.
Power move has also been made as they create false demand for USD, coupled with today being Eid Mubarak or Hari Raya, so, the Muslims are not here with us to provide the additional liquidity. (Im from Singapore, and even though it's a chinese majority country, we celebrate Eid as a public holiday. So, there definitely is an impact there for USD, especially when the middle east is on holiday, too.)
0044SGT 01042025
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Ok I'll be turning off my laptop after I post this in a minute.
0314SGT 01042025
CHFUSD trade ideas
USD/CHF Long Trade – Breakout from Descending TrendlineI have entered a long position on USD/CHF following a confirmed breakout and close above the descending trendline on the 4-hour timeframe. The breakout signals a potential shift in momentum, with price now reclaiming key levels.
*Entry:* 0.88290 (Breakout confirmation)
*Stop Loss:* 0.87812 (Below recent structure support)
*Risk Management Level:* 0.88075 (Adjusting SL if price moves favorably)
*Target Levels:*
TP1: 0.88576 - Moving SL to BE at this point to manage risk
TP2: 0.89082
TP3: 0.90329
TP4: 0.91448
*Trade Rationale:*
*The breakout above the descending trendline suggests a shift in market structure toward bullish momentum.*
*Risk is managed with a stop below recent lows, allowing room for volatility while protecting capital.*
*Targets are aligned with key resistance levels where price may react.*
USDCHF Long off key level First publication after a very long time.
Just seen this inverted head and shoulders pattern forming with a key level being heavily respected as a key level of support.
I have seen that the last candle form on the daily chart was a bullish engulfing candle which has shown massive bullish pressure again and I will use this as my signal candle
I have my stop loss at the signal candle low wick with my target at a 1:3 reward but I am open to riding this out depending on how this idea goes ahead.
Best of luck on the charts !!!
USDCHF The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USDCHF below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.8806
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 0.8825
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USD_CHF SHORT SIGNAL|
✅USD_CHF is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 0.8860
Thus I am expecting a pullback
Which means we can enter a
Short trade with the TP of 0.8835
And the SL of 0.8866 but its is a
Risky setup so we recommend to use
A small lot size
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDCHF SHORT Market structure bearish DH
Entry at Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.88500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 3.74
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USDCHF INTRADAY sideways consolidation continuesThe USD/CHF price action exhibits bearish sentiment, supported by the prevailing downtrend. The current intraday swing high at 0.8860 serves as a critical trading level, as the pair shows potential for an oversold rally before facing bearish rejection.
Key Levels to Watch:
Key Resistance: 0.8860 (current intraday swing high)
Immediate Support: 0.8760
Lower Support Levels: 0.8720, 0.8680
Upside Resistance Levels: 0.8913, 0.8970
Bearish Scenario:
An oversold rally toward the 0.8860 level, followed by a bearish rejection, could validate the downtrend and target the immediate support at 0.8760. Continued bearish momentum could extend the decline to 0.8720 and ultimately 0.8680 over the longer timeframe.
Bullish Scenario:
A confirmed breakout above the 0.8860 resistance level, accompanied by a daily close above this mark, would negate the bearish outlook. This scenario could trigger further rallies toward the next resistance levels at 0.8913 and 0.8970.
Conclusion:
The prevailing sentiment remains bearish amid the ongoing downtrend. Traders should closely monitor the 0.8860 level for potential bearish rejections or a bullish breakout. A sustained close above this resistance could signal a shift toward bullish momentum, while failure to break above would reinforce the bearish outlook.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Earthquake in Myanmar and Safe Haven Currencies
Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Forex Trader. Today I want to talk to you about the impact of catastrophic events, such as the recent earthquake in Myanmar, on the Forex market, with a particular focus on the role of safe haven currencies. During global crises or unpredictable events, investors tend to seek safety for their capital, moving it towards assets and currencies considered stable. This phenomenon, known as "flight to safety," occurs because markets become highly volatile and uncertain, and the risk of losses increases.
Flight to safety and the importance of safe haven currencies
When dramatic events such as the earthquake in Myanmar occur, global investors prefer to protect their portfolios. This often leads to a strengthening of so-called safe haven currencies, i.e. those currencies perceived as safe and stable. The reason is that these currencies tend to maintain their value or even strengthen in times of crisis, acting as anchors of stability for financial markets.
Top Safe Haven Currencies
Common safe haven currencies include:
Swiss Franc (CHF): Switzerland is known for its economic and political stability. The Swiss Franc is often seen as a “safe haven” during times of instability.
US Dollar (USD): The dollar is considered a safe haven currency due to the strength of the American economy and its status as the global reserve currency.
Japanese Yen (JPY): Despite Japan having a high level of public debt, the yen is seen as a safe haven currency due to the country’s internal stability.
Gold and Other Safe Haven Assets: Although gold and some other commodities are not currencies, they are often considered safe havens and their value indirectly influences currency markets.
Impact of Earthquakes on Currencies and Forex
An event like the Myanmar earthquake tends to cause capital to move into these safe haven currencies for the following reasons:
Local Currency Depreciation: Myanmar’s currency, the Kyat, is coming under pressure due to economic instability and the need for large amounts of capital for reconstruction.
Safe Haven Currencies Rise: As uncertainty increases, currencies like the CHF, USD and JPY strengthen as investors seek refuge.
Market Volatility: Catastrophic events often lead to sudden price movements in major currency pairs, increasing risk while also providing opportunities for experienced Forex traders.
Commodity Impact: If the disaster area is rich in natural resources, commodities may experience price fluctuations, significantly impacting related currencies like the AUD and CAD.
Conclusion
Natural events, like the Myanmar earthquake, are a reminder of how volatile the Forex market can be during times of crisis. Closely monitoring these dynamics is essential to adapt trading strategies and protect your investments. Understanding the role of safe haven currencies in these moments allows you to identify opportunities, reduce risks and maintain portfolio stability.
I hope this article has provided you with a useful overview. If you have any questions or would like further information, do not hesitate to contact me.
USDCHF .. will the weakness continue ??I really don't see any reason for a change unless of course Mr .. causes another upheaval. For now, check out your charts and note that:
Monthly - bearish
Weekly - bearish
Daily - bearish
Intraday - all bearish.
We will hit and break a few S/R levels, but IMO, we should eventually get down to 0.8400.
This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
CHF/USD Weekly Forecast: Falling Wedge Breakout Towards TargetMarket Overview: Bullish Reversal in CHF/USD
The Swiss Franc (CHF) / U.S. Dollar (USD) currency pair has recently broken out of a Falling Wedge pattern, signaling a bullish trend reversal. This breakout is significant as it suggests the end of a prolonged downtrend and the beginning of a new upward momentum. Traders who capitalize on this pattern could benefit from potential long opportunities.
This analysis will cover the chart pattern, key levels, trading setup, risk management, and market sentiment, providing a comprehensive professional breakdown of the CHF/USD price action.
1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge – Bullish Breakout
A Falling Wedge is a well-known bullish reversal pattern that forms when price action creates lower highs and lower lows, but the slope of the highs is steeper than the lows. This leads to a narrowing structure that suggests sellers are losing strength, paving the way for a bullish breakout.
Pattern Characteristics:
✔ Prior Downtrend: The CHF/USD pair was in a sustained bearish trend before forming the wedge.
✔ Converging Trendlines: Price action squeezed into a wedge formation, showing decreasing volatility.
✔ Breakout Confirmation: The price successfully broke above the wedge resistance, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
✔ Retest Possibility: Price may revisit the breakout zone before continuing its uptrend.
A breakout from a falling wedge typically leads to a sharp bullish rally, making this a high-probability trading opportunity.
2. Key Technical Levels: Support & Resistance
Support Zones (Buying Interest):
🔵 1.0835 – 1.1000: This zone has acted as strong support where buyers stepped in aggressively.
🔵 1.1071 – 1.1095: A short-term support level that aligns with recent price action, making it a critical stop-loss area.
Resistance Zones (Profit Targets):
🔴 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance): Price has struggled at this level previously, making it the first target for a bullish move.
🔴 1.1600 (Major Resistance): If the uptrend continues, this level will act as the next major challenge.
🔴 1.1909 (Extended Target): A long-term resistance level where price has historically reversed.
3. Trading Strategy & Entry Setup
Now that we have identified the breakout and key levels, let’s design a strategic trading plan.
📌 Entry Points for Long Trades:
✅ Aggressive Entry: Buy at the current price after the breakout, expecting continuation.
✅ Conservative Entry: Wait for a retest of the wedge breakout zone or support near 1.1071 – 1.1095 before entering long.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement (Risk Management):
❌ Stop below 1.1071: This level is a strong support area, and a break below it may invalidate the bullish setup.
❌ Alternative Stop below 1.1000: A safer option for long-term traders to avoid stop-hunting.
📌 Take-Profit Levels:
🎯 Target 1: 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance Zone)
🎯 Target 2: 1.1600 (Stronger resistance where partial profits can be booked)
🎯 Target 3 (Extended): 1.1909 (For swing traders holding positions longer)
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio:
A proper Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio of at least 1:2 should be followed for efficient trade management. This means:
Risking 50 pips to gain 100 pips (or more) for profitable trading.
4. Market Sentiment & Confirmation Signals
✔ RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Above 50? Bullish confirmation.
Near 70? Overbought zone, potential pullback.
✔ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Bullish Crossover? Strengthens buy signal.
Divergence? Confirms price momentum.
✔ Volume Analysis:
High volume on breakout? Confirms strong buying interest.
Low volume? Beware of false breakout.
✔ Fundamental Factors:
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy: If SNB maintains dovish policies, CHF could weaken, pushing CHF/USD higher.
US Federal Reserve Stance: A strong USD could slow CHF/USD gains.
5. Conclusion & Trading Plan
🔹 Summary of Trade Setup:
✅ Bullish breakout from Falling Wedge – high-probability long trade
✅ Retest of breakout zone may offer better entry
✅ Major support at 1.1000 – 1.1071
✅ Targeting 1.1550 – 1.1909 range
🚀 Final Trading Plan:
📌 Buy CHF/USD above 1.1100 – 1.1150
📌 Stop-loss below 1.1071
📌 Take Profit 1: 1.1550
📌 Take Profit 2: 1.1600
📌 Take Profit 3 (Swing Trade): 1.1909
📢 Pro Tip:
Always confirm breakout volume before entering.
Monitor economic events affecting CHF & USD.
Use proper risk management (1-2% of account per trade).
📊 Final Verdict:
🔥 CHF/USD is in a bullish setup after breaking out from a Falling Wedge. Traders should look for buy opportunities on pullbacks while targeting resistance levels. 🚀
Double Bottom on USD/CHF @ W1This double bottom pattern has formed on the weekly chart of the USD/CHF currency pair following a downtrend that had been active since October 2022. It can be used as an upside breakout setup. The two bottoms are marked with the lower yellow line; the neckline is marked with the upper yellow line. My potential entry level is at the cyan line (10% of the pattern's height above the neckline). My potential take-profit level is at the green line (100% of the pattern's height above the neckline). My potential stop-loss is not shown on the chart and will be set to the low of the breakout candle or to the low of the preceding candle if the breakout one trades mostly outside the pattern's borders. I won't be trading a bearish breakout from this trend-reversal pattern.
A BIGGER PICTURE OF USDCHF Price one more reacts at a historic pullback resistance of 0.92001 what next do we expect from market participant this time? Are we likely to see further drop in price as usual or we’d see a complete change in market trend. If price falls lower to 0.85000 a longterm bear trend emerges. But until then, we may experience complete reversal in price.
USDCHF I Weekly CLS I Daily OB, Model 1, CLS 50% TargetHey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
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CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
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These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
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