2024-09-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax - Bulls closed one of the “weakest” months above the bull wedge and managed to keep the big bull gap open. Can’t be anything but bullish on that close if we don’t see a big bear surprise tomorrow.
comment : If bears manage to stay below 19560, that would be really good. That is the breakout area from Friday we tested 3 times today. Not much more to say until I see tomorrow’s price action. It’s start of the month and after such a strong close, bulls need follow through.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want to stay above the 4h 20ema and keep the market in peak bubble mode. They want 20000 badly and if they melt again tomorrow, chances are good they get it. They should not let it drop below 19400, or the max bullish premise is over. In my weekly update I wrote 19500 but given the bullish close, I think 19400 is a better invalidation area.
Invalidation is below 19400.
bear case: Bears want a test of the daily 20ema and the lower bull channel trend line. Right now I doubt they can get it and I favor the bulls for an equally strong leg up like Thu + Fri. We had continued selling today but what did the bears achieve? Market closed the US session around last weeks close.
Invalidation is above 19650.
short term: Max bullish if we stay above 19470. Neutral if bulls can not get above 19570.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day : Shorting Globex near the ath was the trade to make. Second best chance was around EU open and market could not close above the 15m 20ema until it stalled around 19500.
