UK100CFD trade ideas
The UK100 Price Plummeted After the Publication of InflationThe UK100 Price Plummeted After the Publication of Inflation Data
Yesterday, the stock market in the United Kingdom experienced a sharp decline following the release of new inflation data. The UK100 price, reflecting the leading British stock index FTSE, dropped approximately 1.5%. Moreover, the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart fell below the value of 18 for the first time since July 2023.
Analysts attribute this decline to the published inflation data, which not only failed to meet economists' expectations but also indicated a possible strengthening of inflationary pressure in the country. CPI values: actual = 4.0%, expected = 3.8%, previous value = 3.9%.
This raised concerns among investors regarding the Bank of England's future steps in managing interest rates and the potential slowdown in the country's economic growth.
Sectors most sensitive to changes in interest rates, such as real estate and finance, showed the greatest decline. Significant decreases were also observed in the stocks of companies in the retail and consumer goods sectors, reflecting growing concerns about consumer confidence and spending.
The UK100 chart shows that:
→ the price dropped to the lower boundary of the channel, indicated in blue;
→ market weakness could be inferred from the inability of the UK100 price to stay above the September maximum in December, as well as price action around the 7665 level, which switched roles from support to resistance.
If new negative news emerges for the stock market, support from the lower boundary of the channel may be breached. In that case, it is not excluded that the UK100 stock index will decline to the level of 7300, which served as strong support throughout 2023.
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Bearish Breakdown: FTSE 100 Inverse Cup & Handle FormationBody:
The FTSE 100 index exhibits a compelling technical structure, presenting a potential bearish opportunity. An Inverse Cup & Handle pattern has formed, signaling downward pressure. This classical pattern is often indicative of a continuation in bearish momentum following a consolidation period that resembles a 'cup and handle' in reverse.
Entry Point:
The trade initiated at the 7529.3 level, a strategic entry post the pattern's confirmed breakdown.
Stop Loss:
A prudent stop loss is placed at 7583.8, positioned above the pattern's resistance to account for any potential upside volatility and false breakouts.
Take Profit Targets:
Take Profit 1: Set at 7477.1, likely derived from previous support levels or a desired risk-reward ratio.
Take Profit 2: Further down at 7421.0, which may align with extended support zones or a Fibonacci level.
Supporting Indicators:
Volume patterns align with the bearish outlook, and the RSI oscillator's neutral
read indicates there's still room for the price to move without hitting overbought or oversold levels.
Rationale:
The rationale behind this trade is grounded in classic technical pattern recognition. The Inverse Cup & Handle is a reliable pattern, hinting at a continuation of the prior downtrend. This bearish setup is further supported by the recent price action, which shows a break and retest of the pattern's support-turned-resistance level.
Trade Management:
This trade idea emphasizes the importance of risk management. Adjustments to the stop loss and take profit levels should be considered if the market environment changes or new information comes to light.
Conclusion:
Given the bearish pattern and confirmatory indicators, the FTSE 100 may be poised for a descent. As with all trades, this idea requires monitoring for adherence to the pattern's implications and adjustment based on real-time market developments.
FTSE 100 Big triangle from 2023 breakout and retestOn the Daily chart for FTSE 100, we can observe a massive triangle that was forming in 2023. It started in Februaty and produced a breakout in December. For the past few days the price has been correctign and now it's retesting the resistance of the triangle, now acting as a support.
This support is aligning with the 0.382 Fib and the 200 SMA
The development on it is very important. If the price provides a reversing indication in the following hours, this can be a nice entry for a trade that can target the previous swing high at around 7750 - 7770 and bossibly higher
FTSE to find buyers at market price?UK100GB - 24h expiry
The correction lower is assessed as being complete.
Further upside is expected.
Short term RSI has turned positive.
A move through 7725 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 7775.
We look to Buy at 7710 (stop at 7670)
Our profit targets will be 7810 and 7830
Resistance: 7725 / 7750 / 7775
Support: 7700 / 7685 / 7675
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
FTSE Retreats from Resistance ZoneNew Year Hangover for the FTSE
After a strong festive period, the FTSE’s first week of trading in 2024 resembled something of a damp firework…
Having rallied from the support zone in late October all the way to the resistance zone in mid-December (see chart below), the FTSE has stalled and in recent sessions started to retreat. We’ve seen the market reject resistance five times in less than a month – indicating that FTSE bulls are starting to take profits.
It’s worth noting that the dominant market structure on the FTSE is a sideways range which has been in place since the summer. Until we see the market break and hold above the resistance, we can assume that the range will remain in play.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Lower Swing Highs Form on Hourly Candle Chart
Examining the hourly candle chart reveals a bearish sequence of lower swing highs after the recent rejection of resistance. In the short term, the market has found tentative support, but a breach could trigger increased selling pressure.
FTSE 100 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Sector Snapshot
At the sector level, we have seen a ‘risk-off’ positioning emerge over the last seven sessions. Defensive sectors such as Healthcare, Utilities and Consumer Staples have been leading the market. While aggressive sectors linked to the anticipation of lower interest rates such as Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate have erased some of their December gains.
UK Sector Snapshot (7 Days)
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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UK Index 100 FTSE 100 is neutralPivot
7805.00
Our preference
Short positions below 7805.00 with targets at 7540.00 & 7445.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Above 7805.00 look for further upside with 7930.00 & 8047.00 as targets.
Comment
The RSI has struck against a major resistance around 70% and is reversing down.
Supports and resistances
8047.00
7930.00
7805.00
7662.67 Last
7540.00
7445.00
7280.00
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
FTSE100 D1 - Short SignalFTSE100 D1
Caught in the range between the alluring 7725 sell zone and the steadfast 7275 support price. This range encompasses a substantial 450-point span, bridging the chasm between resistance and support, offering enticing opportunities on both sides of the spectrum. Notably, FTSE100 has been graced with compelling wick rejections, particularly in recent days, and yesterday's closing performance was the proverbial cherry on top.
The measure, spanning roughly 10R from resistance to support, presents an ideal setup for discerning traders who prefer to navigate the higher timeframes with a "set and
SELL FTSE100 Index Analysis on H1: 📉
FTSE100 Index Analysis on H1: 📉
EMA89 and Price Movement:
The price is currently moving below the EMA89, indicating a bearish momentum.
Price Pattern:
The market is forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a downtrend.
Sell Plan:
The plan is to initiate a Sell position in the range of 7730 - 7745.
Set the Stop Loss at 7770 to manage risk.
The Target is set at 7670.
Key Observations:
The identified range for selling aligns with the current downtrend pattern.
Risk management is essential; hence, the Stop Loss is placed to limit potential losses.
Important Note:
Stay vigilant for any price reactions and be prepared to adjust the strategy based on market dynamics.
Remember, trading involves risks, and it's crucial to have a well-defined risk management strategy. Best of luck with your trade! 📉💹 #FTSE100 #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy
#FTSE100 Santa clause rally to continue? CAPITALCOM:UK100 index has demonstrated a substantial ascent, exhibiting a remarkable 6.5% increase from its October lows to the conclusion of the calendar year. This surge followed the emergence of a bullish divergence, further fortifying the positive sentiment surrounding the index. Notably, the recent breach of the wedge pattern suggests a potential continuation of this upward trajectory.
Anticipating a retest of the 7650 level, I posit that the index is poised to sustain its positive momentum, buoyed by the prevailing bullish forces in the CAPITALCOM:US500 US equities market. This projection is underpinned by the conviction that the ongoing momentum in US equities will exert a continued uplifting effect on the UK100 index, thereby contributing to further gains.
FTSE 100 in a rangeThe FTSE 100 is in a range between 7200 and 8050.
Currently we favor purchases at the bottom and sales at the top of this range.
- You can buy the pullbacks to target 7900 then 8050.
- A break of 7200 would be very negative in the medium/long term.
- A break of the 8050 would open the way to the 8200.
FTSE 100 (ICE Europe) may rise to 7765.00 - 7787.00 - 7800.00Pivot
7730.00
Our preference
Long positions above 7730.00 with targets at 7765.00 7787.00 7800.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario
Below 7730.00 look for further downside with 7714.00 & 7685.00 as targets.
Comment
A support base at 7730.00 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Supports and resistances
7800.00
7787.00
7765.00
7749.50 Last
7730.00
7714.00
7685.00
Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
UK100 to continue in the upward move?UK100 - 24h expiry
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 7760 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 7800.
We look to Buy at 7725 (stop at 7695)
Our profit targets will be 7835 and 7855
Resistance: 7775 / 7785 / 7800
Support: 7750 / 7725 / 7700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
FTSE 100 reaches seven month high on softer CPIThe FTSE 100 surged in early trading on Wednesday as the latest inflation figures showed consumer prices had risen less than expected in the last 12 months. Headline CPI came in at 3.9% year-over-year in November, the lowest level in two years. Analysts had been expecting the figure to drop to 4.3% from 4.6%. Core inflation also dropped more than expected to 5.1% from 5.7%.
The softer data underpinned expectations for the Bank of England to start cutting rates sometime next year. Before the data and the FOMC’s surprise dovish tilt last week, markets were pricing in the first cut from the BoE sometime in the third quarter of 2024. As of Wednesday morning, the first full 25bps cut is priced in for May, but there are 13bps of easing priced in by March. By year-end, markets anticipate 134bps of easing, which would entail five 25bps cuts in 2024.
This seems to contradict the messaging that came from the BoE in their meeting last week. The central bank failed to acknowledge rate cuts, going as far as to reiterate that further rate rises could be possible if needed. Markets failed to believe this, and the Federal Reserve is mostly to blame for that. Their unexpected dovish tilt opened the door for other central banks to welcome talk about easing, but neither the BoE nor the ECB took the bait. Regardless, markets see the Fed’s change in position as the turning point in monetary policy across central banks in developed economies, which means they expect the BoE to follow suit sooner or later.
The BoE’s reluctance to show a dovish inclination at their meeting on Thursday last week weighed on UK stocks, especially those most sensitive to rates. The FTSE 100 shed over 1% as the central bank remained firm in its hawkish stance, but Wednesday’s softer CPI data has pushed the index to a seven-month high.
FTSE 100 UK100 trade idea for 20/12/2023 BullishFTSE 100 UK100 trade idea for 20/12/2023
FTSE 100 is in upward channel on daily chart. It broke out of it 2 days ago but came down back inside the channel again.
Tomorrow 20th Dec a major catalyst CPI data is released an hour before the market open. This surely will bring major volatility which gives the traders a good opportunity to grab some points if traded on the correct side.
Key levels based on technical analysis for long trade:
Entry: Ideally a dip to 7626 or 7604
Targets: 7665,7685,7724,7746
Support: 7584,7545
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