US30US30 on daily will retest the neckline trendline and a demand floor for a potential buy opportunity
WALLSTREETCFD trade ideas
US30US30 rejected the roof at strong supply zone in the form of ascending trendline and sent price tanking, on technical buy us30 tomorrow, but we will look at strong confirmation on lower time frame for buy entry position
Analyzing Market Trends and FED Interest Rate Decisions "SPX"The daily chart above highlights FED interest rate cut decisions with vertical lines. I've used the DJI ticker instead of SPX, as it provides a more comprehensive representation of the overall market, unaffected by the dominance of the Magnificent Seven.
My analysis focuses on monthly candle peaks (indicating overbought conditions) and lows (indicating oversold conditions), as well as direction reversals. This cycle repeats, forming higher highs and higher lows. By identifying these patterns, we can determine the market direction, which is either trending upward (green) or downward (red).
Now we know the direction where the market is heading. Its either trending to form a new higher high OR new higher low.
With that understanding, when we plot vertical lines on FED decision days, the direction has not changed. HOWEVER, the decision is accelerating the market direction to its targeted price(either higher high or higher low).
The above guidance is for swing traders for a duration of about 2/3 weeks. Intraday traders can benefit this by looking at days high and low before decision announcement and knowing where the market is generally headed.
As a trader, I utilize custom-built screener tables that cascade data across multiple timeframes and stocks/sectors. This unique approach provides a fascinating big-picture perspective, highlighting strong stocks and sectors.
Reach out to me OR follow me for further insights.
Happy Trading!!
US30 Trade IdeaAfter a strong impulsive move to the downside and breaking below key levels, we had a corrective move to retest a recently broken support and a rejection.
DOW JONES: 5 month Channel Up bottomed and 1D MA100 hit. BullishDow Jones turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.675, MACD = -65.830, ADX = 38.532) after yesterday's sharp drop due to the Fed announcing an outlook shift to 2 rate cuts in 2025 from 4 previously. Technically though that fall presents a unique long term buy opportunity as despite crossing under the 1D MA50, it managed to hit the 1D MA100 for the first time since Aug 8th while touching the bottom of the 5 month Channel Up. Today the price is showing the first signs of rebounding. The 1D RSI rebounding from below 30.000 (oversold) is also a great bullish indicator. The drop that resembles most December's is the first bearish wave of the Channel (July-August). When it recovered, the rebound hit the R1 level at first and that is our target (TP = 45,000).
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US30 Falls to 42200 and is now in buyers ZoneUS30 Falls yesterday causing much of the traders to lose their bullish trades. The market faked like it wanted to go bullish but slid over 250 points. Price is currently closer to support 42300 and is likely to continue to consolidate between here and 92900. This is a zone to take small intraday trades to make up for any losses sustained with yesterday's slide.
For bullish confirmation look for a retest above 42900.
Be careful by paying attention to look for higher highs and higher lows.
Be safe out there. Good trading.
US30 morning analysisTechnical analysis of US30.
Cleaned Elliott Wave count off chart.
Pitchfork drawn from major pivots over the last 5 years (March 2020 low to January 2022 high to October 2022 low.
If price cannot tag the median line (red line) of the pitchfork, there is a high probability that price will return to the last pivot (green ellipse).
At present, tagging the median line would require ~20% gains from current price. Anything is possible, but odds would seem to favor <20% gains in 2025.
Price again broke pitchfork support (lower blue line) yesterday, on impulsive price action.
If top is in, price likely to topple towards October 2022 low (28586.8) on continued impulsive price action.
Dow Plummets 1,100 Points Amid Fed’s Hawkish GuidanceMarket Reacts to Limited Rate Cut Projections and Elevated Economic Uncertainty
Dow Drops 1,100 Points in Turbulent Session After Fed Announcement
Investors rushed to reduce exposure to risk assets on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell signaled a shift in the central bank's outlook for 2025.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 1,100 points following the Fed’s anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate cut and its updated forward guidance. While the rate cut was expected, the announcement that only two cuts are projected for 2024 rattled investors. Powell’s message marked the end of an extended period of monetary easing, further weighing on market sentiment.
This marked the Dow’s tenth consecutive losing session, a streak not seen since 1974, when the index endured eleven straight losses.
Technical Analysis
The Dow's price dropped more than 4.5% ahead of Powell's speech, maintaining a bearish momentum. Stability below the pivot point of 42,590 suggests further downside potential, while a close above this level could indicate a reversal.
Today, the U.S. GDP release will be a key driver of market movement:
If the GDP comes in below 2.8%, it may support a bullish move toward 42,770 and possibly 42,900.
If the GDP exceeds 2.8%, bearish momentum could drive the index toward 42,380 or even as low as 41,120.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 42,590
Resistance Levels: 42,770, 42,900, 43,190
Support Levels: 42,380, 42,150, 41,970
Trend Outlook
Bullish Momentum: If the price stabilizes above 42,590.
Bearish Momentum: Likely to persist with stability below 42,590.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) – Bullish Reversal Opportunity
This chart highlights a potential buying opportunity in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) after a sharp correction. The recent dip into a key support zone could set the stage for a bullish reversal heading into 2025.
Technical Analysis:
Key Support Zone: The gray zone around 41,200–41,400 represents a strong demand area. Historically, this level has acted as a base for bullish recoveries.
Oversold Conditions: The steep sell-off suggests that the market might be oversold, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
Weekly Pivot: The weekly pivot line serves as a near-term resistance, and a breakout above this level could signal bullish momentum.
Bullish Scenario: A bounce from the support zone followed by a break above the weekly pivot would confirm the start of a new leg higher, targeting 44,000 and beyond.
Fundamental Analysis:
Economic Resilience: Despite recent corrections, the U.S. economy remains robust, with moderate inflation and stable growth supporting equity valuations.
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: Expectations of a pause or potential rate cuts in 2025 could reignite risk appetite, favoring indices like the DJIA.
Seasonal Trends: Historically, Q1 tends to favor equities due to renewed optimism and capital inflows at the start of the year.
Conclusion:
Traders may consider entering long positions in the highlighted support zone, with stop-losses just below it to manage risk. A break above the weekly pivot could provide further confirmation of bullish momentum.
Mastering the trading on US 30! it is more than just an idea!Hi, I hope you all are doing well
* The chart time frame on chart is 4H but all time frames were used on my analysis!
* We hit together in this bearish wave ,which I spoke about before it happens, three TPs (have a look on my last two ideas which I attached their links down for you to see) and now it is more complex than before and we need to mind something I will speak about it now.
* The overall big wave for US 30 is bullish and what we see in this bearish wave is just a big correction wave because the index is searching currently for its HL to settle on and return back to do another ATH and so on. That is the easy talk because the tough question now is what the index bias now and where could be that HL?!
* To answer this question you need to see that chart again now quickly and read what will come below and always keep looking step by step. I do want only to tell you targets! I want you to understand too.
* The index retraces from its ATH by the top yellow line, correct and lost 44735 already and I spoke a lot about the importance of that price as all that bearish wave happened because of that!
* Then index kept breaking supports levels on the way down and did not care except to the target which the whalers want to send the index too to gain the power again. All the candles at the free fall were on the left side of the purple downtrend line and could not break it so far because if it will be broken, will be the end of the bearish wave but obviously the index till now did not reach to its target!
* My TP2 on my last idea was at 43800 and I chose that price carefully and wisely and not further down as I expect a bullish retrace to happen from here at around 43800 or 43780 but to where it could go up to?!
* Do you see now the yellow square which I wrote next to it not a safe zone? because the top and the bottom lines of that square are acting as support and resistance zone from 43780 till 43970 this area is so beloved by the market whalers to give a feeling it will go down or up then it could work out with only by luck! because the correct decision to take is to refrain or avoid to set your entry in this area at all and to be patient UNTILL the price break through above or down than that yellow square!
* By going down, will send the index directly to 43435 which I said many times before that is the second most important price after 44735! and I said both those levels are game changer by all the means! losing them means further down moves like what happened with 44735 and settling and bounce up from will give the index the needed buy power back! 43435 is at the blue flag on the chart! where will be the TP of that idea ONLY if the index will continue to go down and close under by minimum 1h candle's body and not with a wick as it could retrace back before the closure of the candle then you would lose the trade!
* Now have a look on the three blue curved lines and see now where they are heading to?!
the first is at the 2HH which acts now as a strong support for index, the second and the third were the points where great bullish momentum started from. Now your your eyes started to see what I see ))
* Now then, have a look too on the red line I drew for you to understand that this line is acting as support or resistance, again it is not by luck that it is located at 43435 which is at the TP level!
* Then now have a look please on the bottom yellow line of the big rising channel where there is a very big chance still that index could go and touch that line too, but I am not sure yet about it. That is why the HL point will be when the index reaches the red pr the below yellow line ))
* Before that last but it is EXTREME important! For US 30 to continue the big overall bullish wave, the 4 HL CAN NOT BE at less level that 3HH but higher or at same level is also acceptable!
* Last thing! Guess what also, Do you think still that my Fib level of 38.20% will meet the index in the same point of when the index reaching to the yellow line is luck! nothing is by luck, that is the trading guys! and the beauty of it!!
* I did not put a second TP because I do not want to confuse you but you already know where that will be now ;)
I sat the idea on neutral not short or long! do not forget the yellow square, above it so will be bullish but down from it would be bearish and if it is meant to be bearish then you know the targets!
I think now your minds are telling you 100% bearish then because the puzzle is solved now)) and all make sense! Wait, nothing in the trading is called 100% but say to yourselves, that there is a condition if it happen so I will know what I will do and I will be patient for it because nothing is called 100% and no one is perfect!
Note!! My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
Large 1000 points drop - panic drop signal possible rebound dipThe Dow had a strong dip yesterday and this shows a price in exit after the Fed announcement yesterday. Due to the sudden drop that coincides with the pocket of support at 41,700-42,300, the DJIA may signal a possible rebound. Despite declining momentum, the psychological of the market and price action signal maintain the uptrend sentiment. Hence, we maintain our long-term target at 46,000
DOW JONES - BEARISH MOVEHello Traders !
The Dow Jones price failed to create a new higher high !
Currently, The Higher low is broken (change of character).
So, I expect a bearish move📉
_______________
TARGET: 43315.00🎯
How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected.
This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974.
🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective
If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index.
1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20
The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends.
2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD
Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market.
3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment
The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance.
📈 Price Action Analysis
The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA.
✅ Key Takeaway
By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
Possible Cypher bullish pattern for Dow?Hi Guys,
The US 30 has been getting sold off from its most recent high and there has been minimal to no interest for any support thus far.
Currently it is testing the 50DMA and close to daily support level., where we may see a small bounce up to lower time frame resistance levels. A break and close below the 50DMA and further a break below support opens the door for the Dow to head to the FVG below, and a test of the 100DMA and a very obvious demand zone where a bullish move looks inevitable.
If price does move to that area then there will also be the entry point for a bullish cypher pattern with excellent fib ratios. All in all nice confluence at the cypher entry point if price can get there. Daily RSI is currently not yet in oversold but could end up being so if we move down to the cypher entry zone, which will add to confluence.
Furtermore, if the Dow can rally from there back up to the high then there could again be strong selling pressure at the 2.0 retracement of the bear market high to low located at around 45300 level. ( Dow did not quite hit that level on this swing lower and RSI was not in overbought albeit showing clear divergence)) Two potential huge risk to reward trades if price reaches these levels.
Safe Trading all
US30 BUY AT SUPPORT ZONE Here on US30 price has moved down and now trying to touch the support zone so is likely to rise after doing that so the trend is in uptrend so trader should go for long around level 41949.5 and expect profit target of 44366.1 . Use money management
US30 Mid Week Consideration 👀👉 The markets could move in any direction today. Over the past three months, since the Bank of Japan rate hike, we’ve been witnessing aggressive liquidity runs and significant, uneven reversals, particularly on Wednesdays. This midweek phenomenon has caught many traders off guard, making it challenging to adapt. It appears to reflect adjustments in the market algorithms targeting liquidity.
For this reason, I’m sitting out of the New York session today. It’s worth emphasizing that staying out of the market can be just as valuable as posting or executing a trade idea. If you have time, I encourage you to review past charts and observe this recurring Wednesday or midweek reversal phenomenon.
Stay vigilant and know when to step aside. Reducing the frequency of trades is as important as placing them. Focus on quality setups and recognize when the best move is no move at all. While this isn’t financial advice, it’s a practical observation that could prove useful.
Trade smart, and let patience guide you.
Big Money Complacency AKA "Deer In the Headlights"The violent US market selloff this afternoon after the Fed cut interest rates
was proceeded by 9 straight days of selling in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Yesterday I posed the observation
that the 9 consecutive days selling had been a warning
of something ominous and yet unknown coming soon to the market.
But no, complacency reigned.
The Fed would bail out the market the way they always do.
But no, today quite the contrary.
They're faith in all that was overwhelmingly "overwhelmed".
The proof of that " massive surprise "
was shown in the VIX, which get this rose, 74 % in just one day to 27.
My point in all this is that traders in the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average
had sniffed out all of this 10 days ago.
Sometimes broader markets show telling signs of "deer in the headlights".
This one was about big money complacency.
And as todays selloff proved.. they paid harshly for that misguided misjudgment.
THE_UNWIND
12/18/24
WOOODS OF CONNECTICUT
US30 / Consolidation Ahead of Key Breakout LevelsTechnical Analysis
The price has reached the support level we mentioned earlier and is now consolidating between 43,350 and 43,765 until a breakout occurs. Initially, the price may attempt to test 43,760 or 43,900, driven by the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut. However, it is also possible for the price to drop again, potentially breaking the support zone at 43,350.
A break below 43,350 and 43,200 would confirm a bearish trend, with further downside targets at 42,900 and 42,770.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 43580
Resistance Levels: 43765, 43900, 44070
Support Levels: 43350, 43210, 42900
Trend Outlook:
Bullish Momentum: Possible within the consolidation range of 43,350 to 43,900
PREVIOUS IDEA:
US30 shorts , huge profits huge fall on us30 , i first approach this trade by identifying the triple top at the end of the uptrend . once price broke below the neckline and pulled back . i enter my first entry and than slowly scaled into the trade with other lot sizes as the down trend continued to play out
US30 BUYI'm expecting the market to break the resistance trendline and the horizontal trendline all together to confirm the my buy.
