USOIL Maintains a Persistent Bearish BiasThe WTI barrel has experienced a loss of over 8% since mid-January, mainly because the peace agreement between Israel and Palestine has come into effect without issues, and Trump’s ongoing comments about increased production in the United States have contributed to the bearish sentiment. Both factors have led the market to expect growing supply and weak demand prospects, which has inevitably sustained bearish pressure on crude oil prices.
Lack of Clear Trend:
Recent movements have caused the barrel to accumulate a prolonged bearish correction, casting doubt on the bullish trendline established since December 2024. Now, the price faces a key support zone, which could serve as a decision point for a potential sustained bearish trend.
ADX:
The ADX line has consistently oscillated above the neutral level of 20. However, recent movements show a current downward slope, indicating a lack of clear trend in the market. If the ADX line continues to decline, the current bearish movement may struggle to break through the existing support zone.
MACD:
Both MACD lines are consistently declining, and the histogram remains below the neutral line at 0. This indicates that bearish pressure continues to dominate in the short term. However, recent histogram readings have not reached progressively lower levels, suggesting indecision in the current bearish movement, which could allow for short-term upward corrections.
Key Levels:
$72: The current support level on the chart. Oscillations below this level could further increase bearish pressure and pave the way for a more defined downward trend.
$78: The last high reached by the barrel of crude oil. Bullish oscillations that revisit this level could revive the short-term upward trend that was forming since December.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
