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6BN2025 trade ideas
GBP Economic Outlook -BEARISH SENTIMENTUnited Kingdom Economic Analysis – February 2025
The UK economy is showing clear signs of weakness, with growth stagnating, inflation remaining stubborn, and business and consumer confidence deteriorating. GDP growth was flat at 0.0% in Q3 2024, down from 0.4% previously, confirming a lack of recovery momentum. Although annual GDP growth improved slightly to 0.9%, it remains dangerously close to recession territory. The labor market is also struggling, as unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling that Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts have failed to stimulate job creation. Inflation, meanwhile, remains a problem at 2.5% YoY, with a worrying monthly uptick of 0.3%, suggesting price pressures are still present. Projections indicate inflation could reach 3.7% by Q3 2025, raising fears of stagflation—where inflation rises while growth remains weak.
The UK’s external position remains a major concern, with a trade deficit of £4.76B and a current account deficit of -£18.1B (-3.3% of GDP), making the economy highly dependent on foreign capital. Government debt has climbed to 97.6% of GDP, leaving little room for fiscal stimulus, while persistent budget deficits (-4.4% of GDP) suggest potential austerity ahead. Business sentiment has collapsed to -47, the worst since the COVID-era, while both manufacturing (PMI: 48.3) and services (PMI: 50.8) show little to no growth. Consumer confidence has also fallen sharply to -22, leading to weaker retail sales, which declined by 0.3% in December. High corporate (25%) and personal (45%) tax rates continue to discourage investment and limit disposable income, further weighing on domestic demand.
Conclusion
The UK economy is facing a tough road ahead, with no clear signs of recovery. Growth is stagnant, inflation remains a problem, and both businesses and consumers are losing confidence. With government debt near 100% of GDP and no fiscal space for stimulus, the burden falls on the BoE, which has already started cutting rates. However, these cuts have not yet helped the economy, and with inflation expected to rise, the central bank may find itself trapped. Given the weak fundamentals, the outlook for the British pound remains bearish in the near term.
Cable analysis based on seasonal dataWhen looking at this chart, I ask 3 questions:
1). Bias = What trend are we currently in?
- Downtrend, P2
2). Are we following a seasonal pattern?
- Yes, 20 years pattern
3). What does this mean?
- Seasonals show us a move to the upside, but we are in a downtrend so this is a P2
- Seasonally we expect a market high around 31/01 before a move lower, this could be around the monthly pivot point as previously highlighted for other P1's
This is the futures trade based on news from Bank of EnglandThis is a Wyckoff VSA in action in the 6B and GBP/USD contracts after news from Fed and Bank of England.
Weekly Forex Forecast: GBPUSD is Bearish. Look For SELL Setups!This forecast if for the week of Dec. 16 - 20th.
GBPUSD is bearish, and a bit weaker than the EURUSD. Will this weakness continue into next week? WIth a strong USD, the answer is yes! Wait for sells and look to target the sell sid liquidity.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Why GBP Is the Alpha Wolf: Decoding the Market's Next Big MoveThe COT strategy has revealed potent setups once again. The codes are unlocking the market’s next likely moves. What you’re about to read is no ordinary analysis—this is how the game is truly played.
This week, GBP and CHF stand out. EUR and NZD also look promising. So, why focus on GBP & CHF? The answer is strength. While EUR & NZD took out their April lows, GBP & CHF did not. The strong remain strong. Align yourself with the wolf leading the pack.
Consider GBP. It’s more than just a setup—it's a symphony of signals:
Code #1: COT Indexes
Commercials: 100% Bullish
Small Specs: 100% Bearish
The crowd is fading into weakness. The pros are betting on strength.
Code #2: Small Spec Positioning
The masses are nearly maxed out on shorts. History tells us their extreme is our opportunity. We fade the crowd.
Code #3: Valuation
Using the WillVal tool:
GBP is undervalued relative to Gold, Treasuries, and USD. This is a fundamental misalignment—the market is screaming 'buy.' The code agrees.
Code #4: True Seasonal
Seasonal trends align. GBP’s true path is bullish up to Jan/Feb. Time and trend converge.
The final pieces of the puzzle:
Accumulation: Insider activity shows heavy buying pressure.
Weekly %R: Sitting in the buy zone.
Rate of Change (ROC): Near the bottoming zone. Strength is brewing.
So why GBP over the others? Comparative Strength. GBP & CHF resisted weakness while EUR & NZD faltered. The strong wolf will not be dragged down by the weak. This isn’t a trade—it’s a strategy rooted in probabilities, not guesswork.
Triggers have fired. I’m already long. But remember: this isn’t an invitation to blindly enter. Fundamentals identify the opportunity, technicals time the precision strike. Discipline is the edge.
The question is simple: What will you do with this information?
Will you continue wandering the Matrix, chasing shadows in the market? Or will you learn to see the code that governs it all?
The choice is yours. I can show you how deep this rabbit hole goes. DM me if you’re ready to truly learn how to trade commodity futures like a pro.
There’s no turning back once you see the truth.
GBPUSD | "Cable" Weekly Forex Forecast: Bearish! Sell The -FVG!GBPUSD is weak, and has currently retraced into a Daily Imbalance, overlapped by a Weekly Imbalance. It is from this point of Internal Range Liquidity that I expect price to seek the next External Range Liquidity, down at the low, @1.2487. This will be the draw on liquidity for the upcoming week, imo.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly Forex Forecast: GBPUSD Is Indicating Strength! GBPUSD had a strong close to last week. This led to a bullish BOS on the Daily TF, in the Weekly -FVG. I expect there to be a short term reaction to the imbalance, and then a resumption of the bullish momentum at the bullish FVG on the Daily TF.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
WHAT'S FLOWING: CRYPTO / COMMODITIES / FX / EQUITIES In today's episode of What's Flowing, we navigated key market trends across multiple asset classes with a deep dive into the following insights:
Crypto Bulls: UNIUSD and ZENUSD showed strong upward momentum, signaling bullish opportunities with favorable accumulation zones.
Commodity Spotlight: Brent oil exhibited continued strength, marking a bullish trend, while metals like M6E22024 and SI2024 displayed bearish tendencies, reinforcing the importance of hedging strategies.
Forex Trends: AUDNZD and EURCHF revealed bearish structures, while NZDCAD highlighted a strong bearish sentiment with a trendline breach and declining momentum.
Equities and Indices: The IWM, XLU, and RSP sectors demonstrated robust bullish trajectories, reflecting broader market optimism. GER30, however, showed a bearish reversal, suggesting caution in European equities.
This episode underscored how our tailored technical analysis tools, coupled with advanced TPO visualizations, help traders identify critical entry and exit points, ensuring precise execution. Stay tuned for more actionable insights as we continue to track evolving market flows!
GBP/USD Turns Bearish: Analyzing the Key Factors Behind DeclineThe GBP/USD pair has recently turned bearish after reaching a significant Supply area around 1.3228. This level, clearly visible on the weekly chart, has proven to be a formidable resistance, halting the pair's upward momentum and reversing its course. As of today, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3125, marking a notable decline from the previous highs.
Weekly Chart
Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment
Today’s economic calendar highlights the USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, a critical indicator of economic health in the United States. As a leading indicator, the PMI reflects the purchasing managers' outlook, which can offer valuable insights into the overall economic sentiment. Businesses tend to react swiftly to market changes, making this data particularly relevant for understanding the current economic landscape.
In contrast, the UK's economic calendar is sparse this week, offering little to support the GBP. The lack of high-impact economic data leaves GBP traders focusing on external factors, particularly from the US. The US economic calendar, however, is packed with significant data releases, including the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures spread throughout the week. However, the spotlight remains on US labor data, with key prints scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
Thursday’s US ADP Employment Change will be the first major data release, serving as a precursor to Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This week's labor market updates are crucial as they represent the last significant data points before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 18th.
Before these critical releases, the market will also be watching the US JOLTS job openings, scheduled for Wednesday. The JOLTS data is expected to remain steady near 8.1 million for July, closely aligning with the previous month’s figure of 8.184 million.
Technical and Sentiment Analysis: Indicators of Further Decline
From a technical perspective, the recent rejection from the 1.3228 Supply area signals a potential continuation of the bearish trend. In addition to this, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting dynamic. Retail traders are currently extremely bullish on GBP, which often serves as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that a reversal might be on the horizon.
Seasonal trends also support the bearish outlook for GBP. Historically, this period tends to favor a continuation of the downtrend, aligning with the current market sentiment and technical indicators.
Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting the Bearish Outlook
The confluence of technical resistance at the Supply area, bearish seasonal trends, and contrarian sentiment indicators all point towards a continuation of the GBP/USD decline. As the market awaits critical economic data from the US, traders should remain cautious of further downside risks. The alignment of these factors underpins our bearish outlook on GBP/USD, reinforcing the idea that the pair may continue to trade lower in the near term.
OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
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EUR | USD | GBP Weekly Forecast Oct. 28: SELL EU & GU!In this video, we will view the markets through ICT Concepts, focusing on the USD, the EURO, and the GBP.
The retracement in the USD Index is overdue and pending... but not yet! There is still room to the upside, which means EURUSD and GBPUSD will likely be BEARISH, as the USD is stronger than both at this time.
Look for the FVGs to hold price or fail, and let them guide you.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GBPUSD BUY ABOVE 1.2800As mentioned in the chart, Wave 4 is supposed to end around 1.2830 to 1.2930 area.
Wave 5 will be capable enough to target 1.3746 to 1.3765 area in long term. But immediate targets were mentioned in our morning call.
#GBPUSD #CURRENCIES
GBPUSD British pound Bullish Week**British pound GBP Value Correlation to USD
>We are now in the Oversold region Signaling for a bullish trend week.
Note: Every time we get Oversold Readings (Green Vertical Lines) we always get a Bullish Move
**Election Year Seasonality forecast
>Bullish until early next Week.
Technicals:
>Price already tested the Daily Supply Zone last Friday, preparing for a Bullish Week ahead.
>Price could reach to the opposing Supply Zone that initiated the bearish imbalance.
OTHERS:
>Scalpers can ride the bullish trending week
>Long term traders can position for a Sell for next week or position a Long trade at Supply for a retest.
***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: GBPUSD GBP | GBPUSD is at an OTE level currently, and may find support for higher prices. I am on the lookout for BUY setups, as I do not want to take shorts in this market until prices breaks below 1.3000.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Navigating September 2024: British Pound Trading ForecastAs we approach the close of Q3 2024, key pivot levels on the Camarilla indicator suggest pivotal moments ahead for the British Pound. The currency's performance at these levels could dictate the trading strategy for the upcoming period.
Camarilla Insights and Strategic Levels:
The British Pound reached a significant juncture at the $1.3220 level, identified as the R5 resistance and a prime profit-taking zone during Q1 2024. This level is now expected to serve as a focal point for institutional traders' actions, oscillating between profit-taking distributions and potential accumulations for new long positions.
September 2024 Trading Strategy:
Anticipated Long Positions: Observations suggest a potential buildup of long positions at the S3 level of September 2024, which also aligns with August 2024's R3 and Q3's R4. This setup indicates that if the price approaches this level, it could trigger buying activities. However, establishing long positions would be prudent only upon confirmation that the S3 level holds firmly. Should the price fail to sustain this level, a cautious approach would be to wait for it to reach the lower S4 level before considering any long trade entries.
Short Trading Opportunities: Conversely, if the price escalates to the R3 level, corresponding to the R5 profit-taking level of Q3 2024, it may suggest that the market is entering a distribution phase. In this scenario, traders might look for opportunities to initiate short positions, targeting subsequent support levels at S3 or S4 depending on the price movement’s momentum.
Long-Term Outlook and Price Targets:
The pattern of higher lows since September 2022 primes the GBP for a potentially bullish trajectory. A break above the previous highs of July 2023 at $1.3150 could set the stage for an aggressive bullish run, aiming for a resistance target at $1.3650.
Conclusion:
The current positioning and historical pivot levels provide a complex but navigable trading landscape for the British Pound as we move into the latter part of 2024. Traders should closely monitor these critical levels for indications of market sentiment shifts, ensuring strategies are aligned with the prevailing market phase, whether accumulation or distribution.
Stay tuned for updates as these pivotal moments unfold, offering opportunities for astute traders to capitalize on the inherent volatility of currency markets.
GBP/USD Strategic Insights: Q3 Breakouts and Q4 ProjectionsAnalyzing GBP/USD: A Journey Through Accumulation, Breakouts, and Forecasting
Q2 2024: The Accumulation Phase
During the second quarter of 2024, the British Pound entered a pronounced accumulation phase. Institutional buyers were actively engaged, positioning their trades to capitalize on future movements. This period set the stage for subsequent price actions and was crucial in understanding the currency's resilience.
Q3 2024: Strategic Movements and False Breakouts
As the third quarter commenced, the GBP/USD experienced a deceptive breakout to the downside, aligning perfectly with the Camarilla pivot support levels at S3 and S4. This false move highlighted the strength of these levels as key support zones, underscoring why initiating short trades—common among retail traders—was strategically questionable at this juncture.
By June 2024, the GBP/USD climbed towards $1.2800, briefly entering a distribution/accumulation phase, which prepped the market for an anticipated bullish continuation.
Mid-Q3 Breakout and Profit Realization
By mid-August 2024, propelled by institutional trading, GBP/USD convincingly broke past the R4 Camarilla level at $1.2950. This breakout targeted the R5 level at $1.3200, identified as the optimal take-profit point. This movement marked a significant transition from the previous range-bound market conditions, showcasing the effectiveness of strategic pivot level monitoring.
Anticipating Q4 2024: Calm Before the Next Move
Looking ahead to September 2024, expectations are set for subdued trading activity, with the GBP/USD likely oscillating between $1.3000 and $1.3200. This forecasted lull suggests another accumulation/distribution phase that could serve as a precursor to more definitive movements in the fourth quarter.
Conclusion and Forward Outlook
The trajectory of GBP/USD points towards stability in the near term, with potential gearing up for another significant movement as we approach the end of 2024. Traders should monitor these pivotal levels closely, as they offer valuable insights and strategic entry points. Given the currency’s recent history and the robust support demonstrated at key Camarilla levels, a bullish bias may be advisable heading into the next quarter, with careful attention to any shifts that might suggest a different course.
Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to navigate through these dynamic market phases and extract actionable insights to enhance our trading strategies.
20240815 6BU20241) Did I follow my plan?
A) Entry
B) Exit
2) What mistakes did I make?
3) What could I have done better?
4) What rules will help me with the above?
GBP/USD:Anticipating a Bearish Scenario for the British PoundFollowing our successful forecast on the British Pound (link below), we are now poised to take advantage of another shorting opportunity as the price retests the previous supply area. This retest suggests a possible bearish scenario on the horizon.
Our analysis is further supported by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates a notable increase in retail long positions. This influx of long positions among retail traders often precedes a bearish reversal, providing additional validation for our anticipated market movement.
As the British Pound retests the supply area, we foresee a potential new bearish impulse forming. This aligns with our strategic outlook, where we aim to capitalize on the expected downward momentum. The convergence of technical analysis and trader sentiment data strengthens our confidence in this bearish forecast.
In summary, we are preparing for a bearish scenario for the British Pound, leveraging the retest of the supply area and the insights gained from the COT report. This approach ensures we remain well-positioned to take advantage of the expected market movements. Stay tuned for further updates and detailed analysis.
Previous Forecast:
✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
6B or GBP/USD UP to 1.31 by end of Q3 fed hinting at rate cuts in future weaker dxy/ us dollar looking to long all xxx/usd pairs in the upcoming months
British Pound (GBPUSD) is getting close to 2007 crash!!!
CoT index shows Commercials(blue line) are in 3-year extreme low AND Retailers(green line) are in extreme high. Almost every time we are in this situation the asset goes down. The last time was May 2021 you can see what happened afterwards.
This is the CoT indicator of commercials net positions. Commercials net position is getting close to 2007 level where the big sell off took place.
Here is the 5, 10, and 15-year seasonality trends indicating that the market typically reaches a peak around August first. Therefore, it is expected to decline from that point onward.
British Pound Futures Down to 1.2300Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to buy British Pound Futures with a high probability and a favorable risk-reward ratio
in the Weekly chart.
Our target is $1.2300 within a few weeks.
Ibrouri
GBP (GBPUSD, 6B1!) Weekly Forex Forecast.... BULLISH!Bias is Bullish, overall.
Price has formed several +FVGs on the way to the DOL.
Potentially, a pullback to one can propel price higher to the draw on liquidity at 1.2810.
I do not think price pullback further than this +FVG at 1.2745. This is also the location of the
Volume Imbalance seen on the Daily TF.
3:1 RR on British Pound Futures Hey everyone, Lord MEDZ here! In today's video, I'm going to break down an exciting trade I caught on Pound Futures this past Friday. Utilizing the smart money concept and the Wyckoff aka Turtle Soup setup, I'll walk you through my thought process, entry points, and strategy. Don't miss out on this detailed analysis and how you can apply these techniques to your own trading. Let's dive in!
