GBP Economic Outlook -BEARISH SENTIMENTUnited Kingdom Economic Analysis – February 2025
The UK economy is showing clear signs of weakness, with growth stagnating, inflation remaining stubborn, and business and consumer confidence deteriorating. GDP growth was flat at 0.0% in Q3 2024, down from 0.4% previously, confirming a lack of recovery momentum. Although annual GDP growth improved slightly to 0.9%, it remains dangerously close to recession territory. The labor market is also struggling, as unemployment rose to 4.4%, signaling that Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts have failed to stimulate job creation. Inflation, meanwhile, remains a problem at 2.5% YoY, with a worrying monthly uptick of 0.3%, suggesting price pressures are still present. Projections indicate inflation could reach 3.7% by Q3 2025, raising fears of stagflation—where inflation rises while growth remains weak.
The UK’s external position remains a major concern, with a trade deficit of £4.76B and a current account deficit of -£18.1B (-3.3% of GDP), making the economy highly dependent on foreign capital. Government debt has climbed to 97.6% of GDP, leaving little room for fiscal stimulus, while persistent budget deficits (-4.4% of GDP) suggest potential austerity ahead. Business sentiment has collapsed to -47, the worst since the COVID-era, while both manufacturing (PMI: 48.3) and services (PMI: 50.8) show little to no growth. Consumer confidence has also fallen sharply to -22, leading to weaker retail sales, which declined by 0.3% in December. High corporate (25%) and personal (45%) tax rates continue to discourage investment and limit disposable income, further weighing on domestic demand.
Conclusion
The UK economy is facing a tough road ahead, with no clear signs of recovery. Growth is stagnant, inflation remains a problem, and both businesses and consumers are losing confidence. With government debt near 100% of GDP and no fiscal space for stimulus, the burden falls on the BoE, which has already started cutting rates. However, these cuts have not yet helped the economy, and with inflation expected to rise, the central bank may find itself trapped. Given the weak fundamentals, the outlook for the British pound remains bearish in the near term.
