USDCAD Long **Martingale Friendly**Short CAD futures (6C) off the 0.7330 supply shelf: BoC’s easing bias and mixed Canadian data outweigh the latest bounce in crude. Risk is capped above 0.733 for roughly 4‑to‑1 reward.
6CM2030 trade ideas
CAD Potential Short Fundamentals aligned with the technical to take a Level over level monthly to weekly supply zone short in the area that I marked for a potential 3R on the CAD futures. Fundamental analysis is based on Betting against retailers, short seasonality and overvaluation against bonds and the USD
Action Plan for the Next Big MoveThe Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading around 0.725, caught in a rare balance where clear conviction is elusive and volatility appears to be compressing, beneath the surface, the stage is set for a potentially explosive move. With the Bank of Canada set to announce its policy decision next week and trade issues with the US still simmering, the market feels poised for a major breakout, even as the immediate backdrop remains subdued.
Fundamental Analysis: Waiting Game with Trade Tension
All eyes are on the Bank of Canada’s upcoming decision. The policy rate, having dropped to 2.75% after a string of seven cuts, now stands at its lowest level in nearly three years. The latest inflation print (1.7%) supports a cautious stance, and the market is pricing in a 70% chance of no change. Yet, this calm could be deceptive: should inflation slip further or job data disappoint, talk of renewed easing will return quickly.
Canada’s deep trade relationship with the United States means any change in tariff policy is especially consequential. Although a US court recently ruled in favor of Canada, experts warn that the broader tariff debate is far from over. Any fresh escalation or, conversely, an easing of trade tensions could move the CAD sharply in either direction. Meanwhile, a mild rebound in oil prices adds some support, but the real driver remains policy and politics.
For now, fundamentals argue for patience, with no strong directional bias until the next catalyst emerges.
Technical Analysis: Tight Range, But Pressure Is Building
Price action has settled into a well-defined range after the sharp volatility of late May. The contract retreated to the point of control at 0.7220, absorbing liquidity and confirming this zone as reliable short-term support. On the upside, repeated failures above 0.73, including rejection wicks earlier this week, highlight strong resistance and a market not yet ready to commit to a sustained trend.
Despite the lack of a decisive move, this compression phase often precedes an outsized breakout, especially with macro catalysts on the horizon.
Sentiment Analysis: Crosswinds, Not Clarity
Institutional flows show a recent uptick in short positions on the CAD, while retail sentiment appears balanced to slightly bullish CAD (short USD/CAD), reflecting indecision. The VIX, now close to its annual average, signals that risk appetite is neutral, there’s little evidence of panic or euphoria. This cocktail leaves the CAD without a clear consensus but suggests that when conviction returns, the move could be sharp.
Listed Options Analysis: Pin Risk, Gamma Potential, and the Calm Before Volatility
The monthly options board reveals significant open interest in calls clustered between 0.7350 and 0.74 for the next expiration, the 6th of June, while downside protection is less pronounced. Implied volatility, though lower than recent extremes, remains elevated compared to historical averages, and there’s a mild bias toward downside hedges. If spot moves above 0.73, options dynamics could quickly flip, fueling an upside acceleration toward 0.7350 or even higher, as dealers are forced to chase delta hedges. A pin at these strikes is possible if the move is not explosive, but a genuine breakout could be dramatic.
Trade Idea: Flexibility Over Forecasting
With so many crosscurrents and volatility compressing, the market appears primed for a breakout. Rather than forcing a directional bet, the most rational approach is to prepare for both outcomes with clear levels.
Bullish Breakout Scenario
Entry: Buy above 0.7320 (daily close or strong breakout confirmation)
Stop: 0.7245 (below recent support)
Target 1: 0.7395 (OI cluster)
Target 2: 0.7500 (psychological level)
Bearish Breakdown Scenario
Entry: Sell below 0.7220 (daily close or strong breakout confirmation)
Stop: 0.7310 (above the prior resistance)
Target: 0.7145 (recent lows/retail stops)
Rather than predict, this approach lets price action dictate. Volatility may be low for now, but context argues that a range breakout, especially to the upside, could be sudden and violent given options positioning and macro uncertainty.
With policy on pause, trade headlines pending, and options open interest suggesting magnetic levels higher, the CAD sits on the edge of potential. As volatility compresses, the market’s indecision is itself the clearest signal: the next major move, when it comes, is likely to be fast and fueled by positioning. Flexibility, not bias, is the trader’s greatest edge in this environment. Be ready for it.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/.
This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CAD/USD heading back to .72Cad heading back to .72 and possibly beyond. Price will follow this channel up until it breaks below it
CAD/USD growing more bullishIn this chart we can see the CAD/USD conversion rate has formed a bullish divergence.
This pattern is formed when price action creates lower lows whereas simultaneously the RSI creates higher lows.
This divergence is indicative of a future sharp and sudden rise in price.
Entered (2) 6CM contracts at .72145
Target price of .72645
Multi-Year Bottoming Watch =**Week of:** April 7–11, 2025
**Bias:** Bullish Rotation Setup
**Trade Duration:** Multi-week to multi-month swing
**Status:** Compression Zone Reclaim | Macro Spring Forming
**Reflexivity Phase:** Phase 2 – Structural Reversal Attempt
---
## 🧠 Thesis
Canadian Dollar Futures (6C1!) are emerging from a multi-year downtrend channel with signs of base compression and reclaim. This may represent the early stages of a **macro spring** setup — the kind that forms silently while sentiment is bottomed out.
We are now in a zone where smart money often rotates before the crowd reacts.
---
## 🔍 Structure Overview
- Decade-long downtrend channel — structure well defined
- Price has reclaimed key breakdown levels
- Early higher lows forming inside compression zone
- Base forming after major sentiment washout
- No parabolic rallies = controlled accumulation
---
## 📊 COT + Sentiment Snapshot
- **Commercials:** Gradually increasing net long CAD positions
- **Leveraged Funds:** Still net short — potential fuel for reversal
- **Narrative:** CAD broadly dismissed due to oil & USD dominance
- **Retail:** No attention = stealth phase
---
## 🔄 Reflexivity Phase Model
| Phase | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| **Phase 1:** CAD declines for years, sentiment deeply bearish
| **Phase 2:** Structure stabilizes, price reclaims compression zone (now)
| **Phase 3:** Sentiment catches up, breakout attempt begins
| **Phase 4:** Violent revaluation as positioning flips
✅ **Current Phase:** Phase 2 – Smart money accumulating, crowd unaware
---
## 🎯 Strategy Guidance
- Favor long bias while above reclaimed levels
- Ideal entry zone: Retest of reclaimed base
- Invalidation: Re-entry below channel support
- Target: Multi-month upside if breakout holds
---
> “The broader the base, the bigger the move. CAD may be waking up from a multi year sleep.”
Is it Time for Commodity Currencies to Shine?As Trump announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which was bullish the USD, the CAD closed the day green as Commercial traders are net-long while Speculators are increasing their short position. Will fading this crowded trade (not max crowded yet) end up being one of the better trades during the first quarter of 2025? This is also not the only currency set up that way. Other commodity currencies include the AUD and NZD.
These three currencies are where Speculators are most short. Now we wait for the market to confirm the long trade with a news failure.
For new followers, the CMR process is to wait for Speculators (both small and large) to become extremely crowded and then fade their trade after a news failure in the market confirms the trade. You want to be on the same side as Commercials when the market turns.
Thanks,
Jason
Canadian Dollar Short ends now we have the 3rd new moon
backtest show that after 3 moves in one direction its time for a correction.
so exting CAD short at the new low looks like a good idea.
reason to get into the short trade was a low COMMERCIALs Position on the COT index, now we have a much higher reading so its time to exit DOLLAR long positions as well
The Market Code: Decoding Opportunity in the Canadian Dollar**The Market Code: Decoding Opportunity in the Canadian Dollar**
There is a moment when the veil is lifted, and the truth becomes clear—when the illusion of chaos resolves into perfect order. This week, I have read the code written within the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, and it reveals a symphony of opportunity, waiting for those who are ready to listen.
The markets are alive with setups—Currencies, Energies, Metals, Grains, Treasuries—all pulsing with hidden potential. But let me be clear: not all secrets are free. I will offer you only a taste, a glimpse of what lies beneath the surface. The rest? That’s reserved for those who dare to journey deeper into the rabbit hole.
Among the revelations, one stands above the rest: **The Canadian Dollar is primed for longs**. But do not mistake this for a call to rush blindly into the market. This is the *setup*, not the signal. To act with precision, you must wait for the *trigger*. This distinction is critical, yet misunderstood by most.
The Codes Decoded
-Commercial Positioning: The commercials—those who understand the market better than anyone—are close to holding their longest positions in three years. The last time they were this long was in August, just before a sharp bullish move. Coincidence? Hardly. This is the first code of the Canadian Dollar setup.
-Open Interest Surge: During the recent multi-week price decline, Open Interest has spiked. Ask yourself: *Who is driving this increase?* The data reveals it’s the commercials, increasing their longs. This is not noise—it’s a signal.
-Bearish Sentiment Extreme: Investment advisors are at a relative extreme in bearishness. Contrarians thrive on such moments, as extremes are where the most compelling opportunities are born.
-Valuation Insight: The Canadian Dollar is undervalued relative to U.S. Treasuries. When valuation and positioning align, the market is speaking in a language few understand.
-Seasonal Trends: The true seasonal trend supports a long, pointing to upward movement into January. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
-Small Speculator Shorts: Small speculators are heavily short—an extreme in their positioning over the last 26 weeks. This is yet another clue in the unfolding narrative.
-Technical Support: %R is signaling a buy zone, and the weekly stochastic is oversold. The technicals align with the fundamentals—yet another piece of the puzzle.
The Question
What will you do with this knowledge? Will you watch from the sidelines, content to let the markets continue to elude you? Or will you take the red pill, embrace the truth, and step into a new understanding of how the markets truly operate?
The Invitation
I’m not here to sell you illusions or half-truths. I’m here to show you how to *see*. The Commitment of Traders strategy isn’t a system—it’s a lens that reveals the market’s music, the hidden rhythm that guides price action.
If you’re ready to go beyond the surface, to see the *why* behind the *what*, reach out. I’ll teach you how to decode these markets for yourself. The rabbit hole goes deep, but I will guide you.
The choice is yours: stay in the comfort of ignorance, or step into the unknown and discover what lies beyond.
Are you ready to see how deep the rabbit hole goes?
Red Pill of Trading: A Glimpse into Hidden Market SetupsIn the depths of the market matrix, few can see beyond surface price action.
The Commitment of Traders data is a revelation, a signal that speaks to those ready to see the true forces at work. This strategy has uncovered potent setups across currencies, energies, grains, and metals—all primed for major moves.
But I cannot offer this knowledge freely. Information that comes cheap is rarely valued. True insight, like the red pill, demands a commitment. A choice to see beyond the veil. Today, I offer you just a glimpse—one of many market truths revealed by this strategy.
The Canadian Dollar.
The CAD is positioned for longs. But let me be clear: we don’t blindly long this market. Instead, we wait, watching for a confirmed entry trigger on the daily timeframe. Yet everything points towards a powerful move.
Commercials are positioned extremely long relative to the last 26 weeks, and approaching levels we last saw in August—right before CAD surged. Open interest has been increasing, and when OI increases, we ask ourselves: "Who is causing this open interest increase?". In this case, it is increasing while the Commercials are getting very long, which is bullish.
Last week, investment advisor sentiment hit a bearish extreme, a contrarian signal that lingers now into this week. CAD is undervalued against both gold and treasuries—another indication of buy potential. Two weeks ago, we saw ADX drop below 20, while commercials heavily increased their longs, creating a bullish divergence that grows with each new indicator.
Supplementary indicators stand by this setup: Insider Accumulation, Stochastics, %R, even a bullish momentum divergence is setting up, though it’s not yet confirmed.
And this is just the beginning.
If you want to uncover the full array of setups across markets this week and next, to see the real truth behind the moves, then take the red pill. Reach out. This is an opportunity, a privilege to step beyond mere price action and learn the market’s deepest secrets.
Inquire with me, and together, we’ll peel back the layers of the matrix. The choice is yours.
Possible Canadian Dollar StrengthI’m monitoring for Canadian Dollar strength in the near to mid-term. Based on my data, the risk-to-reward ratio appears very favorable. I plan to start building a short position on the USDCAD pair if it rises above 1.40, only initiating the trade once this threshold is reached. If it doesn’t, I will refrain from entering. Given the strong current momentum, it’s possible the pair could move significantly higher, so I’ll begin with a small initial position. I scale into and out of my trades gradually, taking multiple smaller positions along the way.
COT Red Pill: Canadian Dollar Primed for a Long The Red Pill of Trading: Illuminating the Canadian Dollar's Long Potential
In the vast and enigmatic expanse of the financial matrix, truths often lay hidden, obscured by layers of complexity and uncertainty. Today, I offer you an opportunity—an invitation to take the red pill and awaken to the profound insights that the market has to reveal. We turn our gaze to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), a currency poised for potential transformation, waiting for the discerning trader to recognize its worth.
The Commercials
Let us begin with the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, a powerful tool that unveils the positioning of the market's key players. The commercials—those seasoned entities whose knowledge and resources run deep—are currently positioned significantly long. Their holdings approach levels last seen in August 2024, a time of significance with extreme long positioning that heralded a remarkable four-week upswing in prices. This is no mere coincidence; it is a bullish signal, a whisper from the market that should not be ignored.
However, wisdom demands patience. To embark on this journey, we must first wait for a confirmed trend change entry trigger on the daily timeframe. The fundamentals are ripe for a rally, yet we must ensure our actions are grounded in calculated strategy rather than impulsive enthusiasm.
Open Interest: A Window into Market Dynamics
As we delve deeper into the market's secrets, we uncover the insights offered by open interest analysis. During the recent multi-week downtrend, we have witnessed a spike in open interest—a phenomenon that warrants our attention. Here, we must pose a critical question: who is driving this increase?
in this case it is the commercials, accumulating long positions and enhancing their stake, we find ourselves looking at a robust bullish indicator. The increase in open interest driven by those with intimate market knowledge signifies a potential shift in the market’s direction. This insight is a crucial key to unlocking the doors of opportunity.
The Contrarian’s Edge
But the revelations do not end there. Investment advisor sentiment has plummeted to bearish extremes, a classic contrarian signal that savvy traders know to watch. As the masses succumb to pessimism, history has shown us time and again that opportunity often lies in the shadows of despair.
The WillVal indicator further illuminates our path, revealing that the Canadian Dollar is currently undervalued compared to Gold and Treasuries. This mispricing signals an impending revaluation—a chance for the discerning trader to seize the moment. Seasonal trends indicate that we should anticipate price movements upward as we approach January, and the positioning of small speculators(the usually wrong public)—excessively short—presents yet another contrarian opportunity, one that the wise trader can capitalize on.
The Choice Before You
You now stand at a significant juncture, a crossroads where knowledge and opportunity intersect. The insights I have shared are akin to taking the red pill—a revelation that exposes the true nature of the market, laying bare the possibilities that await those willing to see.
As you contemplate your next move, remember that successful trading is not about surrendering to the whims of the crowd but about embracing the hidden truths that lie beneath the surface.
Join me on this journey into the unknown. Follow Tradius Trades, where we dissect the intricate patterns of the market and equip you with the insights necessary to navigate this complex landscape. The truth is out there, and together, we can unveil the secrets of trading with clarity and conviction. Choose wisely, for the matrix of opportunity awaits your command.
High Timeframe Analysis for Canadian DollarDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. There are significant risks involved with trading. Do your due diligence.
MULTI-TIMEFRAME STRATEGY.
This approach is great for traders that don't have a lot of time to spend at the charts. This strategy can easily be managed with a few minutes a night. If you have kids, or are busy with another profession, this strategy is excellent.
HTF: 12 Month
ITF: 2 Week
ETF: 12 Hour
CANADIAN DOLLAR ANALYSIS:
I am looking for the Canadian Dollar to trade up to 2023 highs. My bias is due to the "swing low" we put in over the last few years, suggesting that overall there is some bullish momentum.
The intermediate timeframe is in flow with my htf objective. I want to see CAD trade down into the 2W fair value gap &/or 2 week orderblock, and then give an entry (cisd, 18 period ma entry, 10-8 mac entry). The target is 2023 highs. These trades can last a fairly long time due to the high timeframe objective. I will either roll over into next contract, or utilize spot forex market for these positions. To be clear, this does not mean I blindly long. What this means is this market has a setup, which means we wait for the trigger/timing tool to get me in. Until then, I do nothing.
If you want to learn more about the PD (Premium/Discount) arrays, I suggest you study ICT (Inner Circle Trader). My application of his work is unique, but to learn the fundamentals, there is no better place than his YouTube.
If you have questions, feel free to shoot me a message.
Have a great week.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT CAD - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Canadian Dollar (6C)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6C if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
OI Analysis: Upmove in price has seen Commercials aggressively move to the short side - bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 2-6 : USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for SEPT 2-6th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
20240814 6CU2024Did I follow my plan?
- Entry
- Exit
What mistakes did I make?
What could I have done better?
What rules will help me with the above?
Canadian Dollar Historic Long(Futures)
This is the CoT index of Commercials(Blue) and Retailers(Green). As you can see, Commercials are in the high extreme and Retailers are in low extreme of the index. The vertical blue lines are the past identical situations which ended up in big rallies.
Plus, when the retailers net position(green area) is around -8000 (the dotted green line) resulted in rallies also.
On top of that Commercials net positions(the blue area) is close to the all time high (since 2001). the last time Commercials net positions were this high was May 2017 which ended up in a BIG rally.
Besides, the 15-year seasonality shows bottom of the market around the end of June and top of the market around the end of July.
Keep in mind that this is the Canadian Dollar futures chart which is the inverted of USDCAD of Forex chart.
6C Possible Higher Low Major trend reversalGood for at least a scalp.
Possible long ride on a retracement
Weekly Forex Forecast May 20-25th... Part 1This 2 part video covers ...
- USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
- S&P500, NASDAQ, GOLD, SILVER, CRUDE OIL
Thank you for viewing!
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
May profits be upon you.
CAD - Futures - 23/04/2024CAD holds one of the highest non commercial vs commercial positions, it has shown strength last week when there was very positive news in the US and CAD held price between 0.7292 and 0.7229. Creating a pinbar which the price was rejected against going lower.
We have gone into the trade with a 0.5% exposure.
Canadian Dollar Futures Trading Plan and ExplanationAfter analyzing options trades on CME, we found a promising opportunity to short Canadian Dollar. The option contract is for April with an expiration date of April 5, 2024.
We noticed an interesting option portfolio on March 22 that aligns with the trigger level on the futures chart (refer to chart). A trigger level is a graphical pattern on the underlying asset that
prompts traders to take or avoid specific trading actions.
For the Canadian futures chart, the trigger level is the price breakdown of the local resistance at 0.7403-0.07406. Opening long positions at the breakdown point was encouraged by the bullish shape and intensity of the candlestick with minimal shadows. This level was attractive for making purchases for both chartists and adepts of candlestick analysis.
The study of options trading has revealed that these levels are useful for opening counter positions when the price reaches them. To execute this strategy, smart traders use naked options in advance, specifically PUT options with a strike of 0.74. By utilizing the leverage effect of options, traders can create substantial short positions on futures contracts while maintaining a risk-free position for a limited time.
IMPORTANT! We do not expect the price to move towards the strike level. Instead, we recommend using the obtained exchange data and analyzing it to gain an edge when opening a trade, providing a better starting point and improving the risk/reward ratio.
CAD - Futures - 24/4/2024 CAD Futures - Last week we had a very strong price rejection which created a weekly pin bar.
but we needed more evidence to support this. This evidence came in a form of Commercials changing positions which is at 91,572 net positions. This is the highest net position in the last 26 weeks.
Also in another weeks time we will have the NFP and CPI reports coming out and CAD is now showing strength against the Dollar prior to these reports coming out
