6E1! trade ideas
M6E Short 06/03/2022M6E Short 06/03/2022
Price at the extreme of previous volume profile.
Previous day POC is untouch, aiming for prev nPOC
EURUSD Sell stop order entry on 1 Hour chart EURUSD Sell stop order entry on 1 Hour chart at: 1.0605
Take profit at : 1.0499
Stop loss at: 1.0726
M6E Potential BuyM6E Buy Potential 05/31/2022
4HR TF
-Price currently at 3 weeks VAH
-Price rejects 50EMA
-Price went above both 25 and 50 EMA
30min TF
-Price still currently inside the previous day VAH
Waiting for price to react the 30mins VAL and get an entry confirmation as we are still at the previous Value Area High before entering the trade.
If price break the 30mins VAL, trade will be invalid and I will expecting the price to aim for the nPOC of 4HR TF which is at 1.0557 area.
Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with price breaking the ascending trend channel, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1.07910 at the swing high to the support at 1.06185 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and overlap support. Additionally, there is a bearish divergence on the RSI indicator which further supports our bearish bias. Alternatively, price may reverse and rise to the resistance at 1.09570 at the overlap resistance.
Potential Bullish Momentum On the h4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will bounce off the overlap support at the buy entry at 1.07430 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and rise to our take profit at 1.09480 in line with the overlap resistance. Alternatively, price may break support structure at our buy entry and drop to the stop loss at 1.06565 at the horizontal support.
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Euro Futures Long Idea 6E1 Daily TFChoch after we had a sweep of previous lows with divergence. imbalance tested so price expected to continue higher or wait for orderblock to be retested.
Euro Futures Short IdeaHello friends. This idea is very similar to the XLE short idea. We are shorting this chart because despite prices rising, the buy/sell ratio is saying that buyers stopped buying as much. We also see that the Wave Master indicator gave us a sell signal.
Thanks for playing.
EURO FX FUTURES (6E1!), H1 Potential for Bullish MomentType : Bullish Momentum
Resistance : 1.07570
Pivot: 1.07085
Support : 1.06155
Preferred Case: With the MACD having a bullish momentum and prices moving above the ichimoku cloud , which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.07085 in line with overlap support to our 1st resistance at 1.07570 where the 61.8% fibonacci projection and swing high resistance are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1.06155 in line with the overlap support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 38.2% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: The most recent ECB announcement points to a rate rise in July. The pace is projected to be moderate, given the dangers of a recession based on the situation of the long-running conflict in Eastern Europe. As a result, we have a weak bullish bias.
EURO FX FUTURES (6E1!), H1 Potential for Bullish MomentType : Bullish Momentum
Resistance : 1.07570
Pivot: 1.06715
Support : 1.06155
Preferred Case: With the MACD having a bullish momentum and prices breaking the ichimoku cloud, which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.06715 in line with overlap support to our 1st resistance at 1.07570 where the 61.8% fibonacci projection and swing high resistance are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1.06155 in line with the overlap support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: The most recent ECB announcement points to a rate rise in July. The pace is projected to be moderate, given the dangers of a recession based on the situation of the long-running conflict in Eastern Europe. As a result, we have a weak bullish bias.
Volatility 19 May 22 Currency Futures Eur, Gbp Aud, Chf YenAUD Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5397 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.96%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.21%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.008
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 0.704
BOT 0.687
GBP Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5408 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.78%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.98%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.012
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1.246
BOT 1.222
EUR Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5408 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.65%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.82%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.009
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1.056
BOT 1.039
CHF Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5399 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.58%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.73%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.007
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1.02
BOT 1.006
YEN Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5399 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.75%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.93%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.007
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 0.0078 + 0.008
BOT 0.0078 - 0.008
Euro - 6e FXWith the ECB's rate hikes heading into Summer- the 6e being
the largest weighting in the 6 Basket - The DX can and likely
will make an RT.
Mid Curve rates may fall as well.
A geopolitical event would sh_t mix this...
EURO FX FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)Breaking the strong bounce zone and continuing the landing, and now it will continue to descend to the lowest of the bottom junctions.
EU Futures Full Fulcrum formedEntered 05/05/22 but will offer more entries next week unless Fulcrum is broken.
Reason For Entry: Full Fulcrum was forming with low probability of breaking due to volume during the Fulcrum so risk was limited. You will note we have weekly lows at the same level for 2 consecutive weeks followed by a considerable rally.
Long EUR FuturesBuyers and Sellers are keeping price in a Range
Buyers are holding at the low
Buyers step up
Buyers get washed and Pivot is created
Buyers step back up and take price higher
Buyers are turning price up
Looking For a Double of the Range
Timing is everything! While the general direction for the US Fed and the ECB are similar, their timelines differ greatly!
On the US Fed (USD) front, we are days away from the next FOMC meeting (4th May 2022) where market participants are expecting a 50 bps hike. On the ECB (EUR) front, the ECB is expected to taper its asset purchase program by early Q3, before it will consider any rate hikes.
The difference in timelines of the Fed and ECB could provide some interesting hints on where the EURUSD is heading in the short term. With the Dollar being the first mover here, we expect strength in the dollar to drive the EURUSD lower over the short term before the ECB firms up its hike schedule.
The EURUSD pair is also trading just below the 7- year support level. Zooming in on a shorter timeframe, we also spot a breakout and retest at this level, suggesting the move has begun.
Entry at 1.08070, stop above 1.12080. Targets are 1.06760 and 1.03835.
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Bullish Divergence in Euro FuturesBasically the same idea that I posted last week about the Bearish Divergence in $DXY but more time has passed, and it looks even more pronounced in the Euro itself.
Pick your poison: /6E, /M6E, EURUSD are all good Long candidates to play this idea. Another good option could be to short /SFX - which is the Small Exchange's US Dollar Futures contract. If you don't know about The Small Exchange, I'd highly recommend looking into their products.
community.thesmallexchange.com
LONG EUI am expecting a run lower on DXY thus EU should go higher
Yield divergence on 4H
Seasonal tendencies
Cot
and Quarterly shift align for a bullish quarter
Controlling TL since Feb 10thTechonomic Trading Strategies has been looking for an area to short (scalp) the Euro. We shorted (@1.10755) after the second failed retest on the hour chart of a controlling TL that has been in place since Feb. 10th. In such volatile markets it's a double edge sword to have a such a tight stop @1.11020. However, during such volatile times, preservation of capital with tighter stops is a must in order to trade again another day.
EURO Futures contract- price should retrace to the imbalance marked on chart and then bounce off that area
- looks weak at the moment but i believe it to be strong in the long run
My OTE entry for a swing long is towards the bottom of the area of imbalance below current price
