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6E1! trade ideas

COT reports + SMT. How to determine the long-term trend (BIAS).A pattern in the COT reporting curve to determine long-term trend or bias (BIAS). With a scope from several weeks to months. Of course, reports arrive with a delay, but on a long-term scale this is not a big problem. Many people use divergences, or SMT in the teachings of Smartmoney Michael Huddleston (ICT), when analyzing charts. Why not use COT and divergence reports together as a useful chart analysis tool. Everyone probably noticed that the positions of Commercial traders in the curve constructed from reports coincides with the price movement (there is some direct correlation, and a large one). After a long observation and playing with the scale, obvious discrepancies in correlations and emerging divergences (SMT) caught my eye. And very often at the peaks of movements, followed by a reversal. Data reports are of course released once a week. Therefore, tracking such SMTs can be used as an additional factor to determine bias in the analysis of higher time frames. And already having a bias for the next few weeks, or even a couple of months. You can look for signals in trades with confirmation on lower timeframes. I like these divergences, they are built on an indicator that is completely independent of price. unlike any RSI, Stochastics, etc. The curve is constructed solely based on trading volumes on the CME exchange, and does not depend in any way on the price, therefore it does not follow the price further to infinity. This is a direct correlation of two different data streams, and their divergence (divergence). I think I’ll make a separate short article about “data streams”, what I mean by this. And finally, of course, the tool is not the holy grail. But with a proper and adequate approach in skillful hands, it is a very good tool that can be kept in mind during a complex analysis of charts. At a minimum, if divergence occurs, you can be wary and reconsider your plans. I hope the information will be useful. Don't forget to like, subscribe, share with friends, leave comments. All you have to do is click a button, and I love seeing feedback. Thank you.
CME:6E1!Education
by Forex_Hoby
EUR (6E1!, EURUSD) Taking a BEARISH TurnLooking for an Internal to External move this week. From the Weekly -FVG to the low at 1.06285. The early part of the week may see price head up to sweep LQ before turning over and dropping. * Should the 4H show a bearish break of structure with a strong close, it may provide an early signal that the retracement has ended and sells should be sought. LIKE, COMMENT or SUBSCRIBE if you like and want to see more analysis. Thank you for viewing!
CME:6E1!
by RT_Money
EURO FUTURES - STIL STRONG SELLINGHello, On this opportunity I am sharing my Supply & Demand Analysis about Euro Futures Contract @ Monthly Timeframe for Position/Institutional trading. Following Supply and Demand probability rules (high probability and liquidity on extremes) I expect price reach Monthly Demand Zone (0.88430 - 0.86050) then strong buy towards up to Monthly Supply Zone (1.60245 - 1.55235). It's advised to buy EUR/USD, GB/PUSD, XAU/USD, BTC/USD when and only when price reach Monthly Demand zone until then there's no high probability buy on these pairs. Hope you enjoy it.
CME:6E1!Short
by eldes
$EURUSD Heading toward 1.0500. See Why!!!Idea - Looking at the Monthly Candle it is clear that There's not enough demand strength to push higher toward the highs, from both the original bullish FVG and Also the recent monthly FVG - The recent monthly FVG should've expanded toward atleast previous 3M high but after sweeping previous high, confirmation of bullish weakness to target, the Previous Month and 3M low toward previous years low, from which enough liquidity can be found to deliver higher -If Monthly Candle closes comfortably below 3M Low. Prepare for more Euro Bearishness - Look at my DXY idea, Capitalised Heavily on the move. And Possibly more profits to be secured in this quarter 1. Created new FVG to deliver toward June 2023 Highs but Failed to Deliver higher in December 2. FVG Failed to Deliver toward recent highs. There's no Demand strength to push Higher 3 Enough Liquidity Behind previous Month Highs to push prices lower toward first target. Previous Quarters Low. Then Previous Years Low
CME:6E1!Short
by Phronesis_Flow
Euro Futures SupportAccording to the latest sentiment analysis data open source, the bullish sentiment on the Euro remains strong. The data shows that the number of short traders are more than long traders which mostly leads for furher upmove. Option Trades Sentiment Option trades sentiment is another important factor to consider when making trading decisions for us. Based on the latest option trade analysis data from CME exchange, option trades data on the Euro is also bullish. The baseline is that naked puts can be easily convert in to syntetic long positions. Options traders commonly use this technique due to the leverage effect in options trading. Buying activity at this level can have a significant impact. However, the presence of strong support does not guarantee that quotes will head towards this level. Growth may continue without a break.
CME:6EM2024Long
by ClashChartsTeam
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - fx - eur/usdGood evening and i hope you are well. The FX markets are not exciting, since most central banks are doing nothing but waiting currently. Short update it is… eur/usd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week. I hope you listened to this because this was as perfect of an outlook was it gets. Have been talking about the retest of 1.1 for weeks now and the high this week was 1.0985. bull case: Bulls got their breakout and their next target is the upper triangle line around 1.097 to break above for the retest of 1.1. They also created a bull channel and want a third leg up. Right now the market expects a pullback to probably retest the breakout and maybe the daily 20ema which are 1.087 - 1.09. Bears printed 2 weak looking bear bars on the daily, which increases the odds that we probably go sideways here. bear case: Bears sold the upper triangle line which started 3 years ago. Their next target is the lower bull channel trend line and the daily 20ema around 1.0875, which is pretty far away, given the weak selling pressure they created the last 2 trading days. If they find strength, they could argue a trading range to trade back down to the lower triangle trend line 1.078 but that’s so far away and there are many support areas to break through first, so very low probability. outlook last week: “up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low)“ → Last Friday we traded 1.086 and now we are at 1.092. I said the breakaout will happen this or next week and gave the obvious target we undershot by 15 pips. Pretty fn amazing. short term: Sideways to up - target above is 1.1 where i expect many profit taking & sell orders - invalid below 1.084 medium-long term: Sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 - the next 2-3 months something will happen news-wise which will set the market tone until the end of the year and we will see bigger fx movements - until then, neutral inside given range
CME_MINI:M6E1!Long
by priceactiontds
My EUR Futures Trade Analysis Dear fellow traders, I wanted to share with you a trade I made on the EUR Futures last Thursday. To start, I conducted a thorough top-down analysis to assess the order flow. I began from the monthly timeframe and worked my way down to the 15-minute chart. Interestingly, I executed the trade based on the 30-second timeframe, highlighting the importance of adaptability in responding to market conditions. The trade presented a risk-to-reward ratio of 6.9 to 1, which I took, but went on to make a significant move of over 205 pips which could have resulted in a 17 to 1 trade. It's crucial to conduct a top-down analysis, pinpoint a point of interest, and patiently wait for confirmation before entering a trade. I'm eager to hear your feedback on this trade analysis, and if you're interested, I can share more insights like this in the future. Remember, each day presents an opportunity for improvement in our trading journey. Until next time, I'm continuously honing my skills to become a better trader in every aspect. Best regards, Lord MEDZ
CME:6E1!
by Skinwah
DXY Seems Likely to Show Some Mid-Term StrengthDXY has pulled back a lot as US bonds have ripped to the upside, however it would appear that the Yields may be setting up for a short term bottom which would result in the DXY coming back up. This would align with the Euro coming back down, but I'm not convinced the move up in DXY will be long-lasting, however I do think it will be notable enough to initiate some Bearish Reversals in Gold, BTC and the SPX and the completion of a potential Bullish 5-0 on the Euro which would take it to the 50-61.8% retrace down at around $1.08, before continuing to the upside.
CME:6E1!Short
by RizeSenpai
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - fx - eur/usdGood evening and i hope you are well. Quote from last week: Bulls got their major trend reversal and i conclude the bear trend from the 2023-12 over. I drew my next best guess on how this new trend could play out. It’s a small trend inside a bigger trading range, so it will probably be choppy and weak. Bulls managed to trade above the daily 20ema and made it support, which trapped all bears who sold below 1.08, if bulls can keep the bullish gap open, this might fuel the rally faster up to 1.092 as it’s first target. Bears closed the gap early but failed at 1.08 which turned support it seems, at least for now. I adjusted my w5 series slightly price and time wise but not much. W2 was deeper than expected but inside acceptable range for a pullback. bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week. bear case: Bears closed the bullish gap but failed to print below 1.08 and the best they can hope for is to stay inside the given range above. Bears had 4 good pushes down from 2023-12 to 2024-02 and i don’t think they want to die on that hill below 1.09. More will probably show up around that price and definitely at 1.1. outlook last week: “up - but invalid below 1.08m then we move more sideways first (bull gap close - see chart)“ → Last Friday we traded 1.0860 and now we are at 1.0860. Funny eh. Good outlook i guess. Market acted as expected and i keep leaning bullish. short term: up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low) medium-long term: sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 until bigger breakout
CME_MINI:M6E1!Long
by priceactiontds