EURO (6E1!, EURUSD) ... BEARISH!Bearish.
Price has moved up into
the -FVG after a BOS.
Expecting a move down
from here, as Internal
moves to External LQ.
SSL is the target, at the
lows to the left.
I enjoy any feedback or questions in the comment section.
All opinions are welcome!
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6E1! trade ideas
EURO FUTURES - STIL STRONG SELLINGHello,
On this opportunity I am sharing my Supply & Demand Analysis about Euro Futures Contract @ Monthly Timeframe for Position/Institutional trading.
Following Supply and Demand probability rules (high probability and liquidity on extremes) I expect price reach Monthly Demand Zone (0.88430 - 0.86050) then strong buy towards up to Monthly Supply Zone (1.60245 - 1.55235).
It's advised to buy EUR/USD, GB/PUSD, XAU/USD, BTC/USD when and only when price reach Monthly Demand zone until then there's no high probability buy on these pairs.
Hope you enjoy it.
$EURUSD Heading toward 1.0500. See Why!!!Idea
- Looking at the Monthly Candle it is clear that There's not enough demand strength to push higher toward the highs, from both the original bullish FVG and Also the recent monthly FVG
- The recent monthly FVG should've expanded toward atleast previous 3M high but after sweeping previous high, confirmation of bullish weakness to target, the Previous Month and 3M low toward previous years low, from which enough liquidity can be found to deliver higher
-If Monthly Candle closes comfortably below 3M Low. Prepare for more Euro Bearishness
- Look at my DXY idea, Capitalised Heavily on the move. And Possibly more profits to be secured in this quarter
1. Created new FVG to deliver toward June 2023 Highs but Failed to Deliver higher in December
2. FVG Failed to Deliver toward recent highs. There's no Demand strength to push Higher
3 Enough Liquidity Behind previous Month Highs to push prices lower toward first target. Previous Quarters Low. Then Previous Years Low
Expect strong EURO Tapped into bullish OB that formed within 40D lookback range. We see good respect to that OB so our target next would be 1.10065 (Bearish OB formed within 60D lookback range). And from there we can expect 1.11400 to be taken. Expect all this to take place before 26th of April. You can take a swing trade long from here if you want just set your stop below 1.07075. I am using the EURO FUTURES contract as it gives more clarity for the EUR/USD.
OANDA:EURUSD
Euro Futures SupportAccording to the latest sentiment analysis data open source, the bullish sentiment on the Euro remains strong. The data shows that the number of short traders are more than long traders which mostly leads for furher upmove.
Option Trades Sentiment
Option trades sentiment is another important factor to consider when making trading decisions for us. Based on the latest option trade analysis data from CME exchange, option trades data on the Euro is also bullish. The baseline is that naked puts can be easily convert in to syntetic long positions.
Options traders commonly use this technique due to the leverage effect in options trading. Buying activity at this level can have a significant impact.
However, the presence of strong support does not guarantee that quotes will head towards this level. Growth may continue without a break.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - fx - eur/usdGood evening and i hope you are well.
The FX markets are not exciting, since most central banks are doing nothing but waiting currently. Short update it is…
eur/usd
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week.
I hope you listened to this because this was as perfect of an outlook was it gets. Have been talking about the retest of 1.1 for weeks now and the high this week was 1.0985.
bull case: Bulls got their breakout and their next target is the upper triangle line around 1.097 to break above for the retest of 1.1. They also created a bull channel and want a third leg up. Right now the market expects a pullback to probably retest the breakout and maybe the daily 20ema which are 1.087 - 1.09. Bears printed 2 weak looking bear bars on the daily, which increases the odds that we probably go sideways here.
bear case: Bears sold the upper triangle line which started 3 years ago. Their next target is the lower bull channel trend line and the daily 20ema around 1.0875, which is pretty far away, given the weak selling pressure they created the last 2 trading days. If they find strength, they could argue a trading range to trade back down to the lower triangle trend line 1.078 but that’s so far away and there are many support areas to break through first, so very low probability.
outlook last week: “up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low)“
→ Last Friday we traded 1.086 and now we are at 1.092. I said the breakaout will happen this or next week and gave the obvious target we undershot by 15 pips. Pretty fn amazing.
short term: Sideways to up - target above is 1.1 where i expect many profit taking & sell orders - invalid below 1.084
medium-long term: Sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 - the next 2-3 months something will happen news-wise which will set the market tone until the end of the year and we will see bigger fx movements - until then, neutral inside given range
My EUR Futures Trade Analysis
Dear fellow traders,
I wanted to share with you a trade I made on the EUR Futures last Thursday. To start, I conducted a thorough top-down analysis to assess the order flow. I began from the monthly timeframe and worked my way down to the 15-minute chart. Interestingly, I executed the trade based on the 30-second timeframe, highlighting the importance of adaptability in responding to market conditions.
The trade presented a risk-to-reward ratio of 6.9 to 1, which I took, but went on to make a significant move of over 205 pips which could have resulted in a 17 to 1 trade. It's crucial to conduct a top-down analysis, pinpoint a point of interest, and patiently wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
I'm eager to hear your feedback on this trade analysis, and if you're interested, I can share more insights like this in the future. Remember, each day presents an opportunity for improvement in our trading journey.
Until next time, I'm continuously honing my skills to become a better trader in every aspect.
Best regards,
Lord MEDZ
DXY Seems Likely to Show Some Mid-Term StrengthDXY has pulled back a lot as US bonds have ripped to the upside, however it would appear that the Yields may be setting up for a short term bottom which would result in the DXY coming back up. This would align with the Euro coming back down, but I'm not convinced the move up in DXY will be long-lasting, however I do think it will be notable enough to initiate some Bearish Reversals in Gold, BTC and the SPX and the completion of a potential Bullish 5-0 on the Euro which would take it to the 50-61.8% retrace down at around $1.08, before continuing to the upside.
$EURUSD Long IdeaTrade Idea
- Obviously Price Has reached It's targets for the Week. (Weekly Swing High & Previous Months High)
- Currently there's no context for higher prices, as daily in the process of creating a FVG we can use to deliver higher prices
- 4H Bullish FVG can push prices Higher toward these 4H two highs
- 1H FVG Entry
- R Target; 2R
EURUSD 6E LongToday EU had a fairly strong daily close. Also, DXY rejected from some key daily levels.
My Daily DOL is Monday's high.
We also saw SMT divergence at the lows (EU failing to make lower lows while DXY made higher highs).
I want to see the H1 discount bullish arrays respected, to then look for a bullish displacement entry trigger on M5/M15.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - fx - eur/usdGood evening and i hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
Bulls got their major trend reversal and i conclude the bear trend from the 2023-12 over. I drew my next best guess on how this new trend could play out. It’s a small trend inside a bigger trading range, so it will probably be choppy and weak. Bulls managed to trade above the daily 20ema and made it support, which trapped all bears who sold below 1.08, if bulls can keep the bullish gap open, this might fuel the rally faster up to 1.092 as it’s first target.
Bears closed the gap early but failed at 1.08 which turned support it seems, at least for now. I adjusted my w5 series slightly price and time wise but not much. W2 was deeper than expected but inside acceptable range for a pullback.
bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week.
bear case: Bears closed the bullish gap but failed to print below 1.08 and the best they can hope for is to stay inside the given range above. Bears had 4 good pushes down from 2023-12 to 2024-02 and i don’t think they want to die on that hill below 1.09. More will probably show up around that price and definitely at 1.1.
outlook last week: “up - but invalid below 1.08m then we move more sideways first (bull gap close - see chart)“
→ Last Friday we traded 1.0860 and now we are at 1.0860. Funny eh. Good outlook i guess. Market acted as expected and i keep leaning bullish.
short term: up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low)
medium-long term: sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 until bigger breakout
EURUSD 6E Long-Price failed to close below 50% of the Daily RDRB price range.
-Price failed to close below Tuesdays low, as well as failing to close below several other previous daily lows.
-Daily DOL is Wednesdays high.
-I need to see H4/H1 discount arrays being respected to then look for bullish displacement entry triggers on M15/M5
EURUSD Short IdeaPrice has rejected multiple times on the daily chart from the 50% level of the bearish orderblock @ 1.08635 . Price also failed to displace and close above Mondays high.
My Draw on Liquidity (DOL) is Tuesday's low, and am hunting a short setup.
I want to see H1 candles closing with rejection wicks in the H1 bearish FVG areas ( 1.08565 to 1.08580) as well as 50% of the H1 bearish orderblock (1.08605).
H1 candle closing rejecting this area, and I'd look for entry on M5.
Let me know your thoughts on this trade idea, and what you are looking for on EUR.
EURZAR SELLING OPPORTUNITY (short EUR) (long ZAR) BRICS powerEURZAR SELLING OPPORTUNITY short EUR long ZAR BRICS power. The EURZAR pair has been volatile in recent months, with the EUR weakening against the ZAR. This is due to a number of factors, including:
The ongoing war in Ukraine, which has put upward pressure on energy prices and boosted the South African rand as a commodity-linked currency.
The prospect of rising interest rates in South Africa, which could make the ZAR more attractive to investors.
Concerns about the strength of the European economy, which could put downward pressure on the EUR.
BRICKS economies: The BRICS economies are generally considered to be emerging markets with high growth potential. However, they also face a number of challenges, such as political instability and high levels of debt. The performance of the BRICS economies can have a significant impact on the value of their currencies.
Before making any investment decisions, it is important to do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance. You should also consult with a qualified financial advisor.
Here are some resources that you may find helpful:
South African Reserve Bank: www.reservebank.co.za
Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com
Reuters: www.reuters.com