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USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Calendar Futures

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CPO1! trade ideas

FCPO TRADING : 321) falling off frm sky?this is haidojo and the number is 321 ... After hitting a double high on 2nd March22, 7108 and 9th MArch 22 ,7268 (so far, this is the record high), fcpo price has broken into NSL(New Structure Low) and since then fcpo market has been playing sideway frm 15th till 31st March22, ranging frm 5700- 6100...only on last Friday, another NSL---5477 is formed...so , we can conclude that the market is in downtrend now...Next level of support to watch out is at 5380 which is also the support level for daily uptrend. If this level is broken, both daily and hourly charts are in downtrend and we could see some fierce pull-down to happen... Following the trend is still the safest route so watch out for "short on rebound" with resistance near 5700 and 6040. This is not a recommendation for buy or sell but it is what I am watching out for my own trading plan. However, not all gloom and doom, fcpo-june should see some reversal to happen if it could break abv 6100 and stay there / move higher. That's all for the update today. *plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck* resistance : 6040-6100 (reversal of bear to bull) support : 5380 (daily critical support) lower support : 5050-5220 WARNING! RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by HAIDOJO_trading
Downtrend Signs in CPO?Market posted weekly losses and closed at 5566. Let’s have a look on what caused the market move. 1.Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine raised hopes for ceasefire as Russia claimed they will scale down their military operation around Kyiv, which will further de-escalate the conflict between both countries. 2. On the other hand, Russia said it will ban export of sunflower seeds and impose export quota of sunflower oil which may force foreign buyers to substitute with other edible oils. 3. China announced fresh 9-day lockdown in Shanghai and Southern part of Shenzhen region to tackle with latest COVID-19 outbreaks which resulted lower demand for cooking oil in food and beverage industry 4. Weakness in crude oil prices after reports that the White House announced to release 1 mil barrels per day for next 6 months from Strategic Petroleum Reserve to calm spiking in oil and gas prices. 5. Soybean oil prices plunged as market reacted to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts US 2022 soybean planting at record high of 91 mil acres. 6. Malaysia Palm Oil Board, Malaysia Palm Oil Council, Fitch Rating and Bank Negara Malaysia shared similar outlook on palm oil production. Factors that influencing in palm prices including slow recovery in production as easing of labor shortage. While heavier rainfall early this year helped to moisture and increase oil palm yields in latter part of the year. MPOB forecast for 2022: Production increase by 4.9% y/y or 19m tonnes Exports increase by 9.2% y/y or 17m tonnes End stockpiles increase by 21% y/y or 1.95m tons Technical View: 1. Long bearish bar formed after broken previous week low at 5695 which indicates sell signal. 2.Stochastic showed down sign in both weekly and daily chart. We expect market may bounce before further drop with immediate support level at 5200. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5500 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5707 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 5293 TP2 4879 Long if stay above 6050 Target Stop Loss (support level) 5843 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6257 TP2 6671 Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks. Happy Trading!! Cheers.
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
Will CPO Sustain Above 6300 to Resume Uptrend?Market posted weekly gains and closed at 6027 after failed to sustain above 6300. Let’s have a look on what were the key factors move the market. 1. Rally in crude oil prices after an attack on Saudi oil facilities by Yemen’s Iran aligned Houthi Group over the weekend and caused jittery in global oil market. 2. Rising in soybean oil prices as Russia’s troop in Ukraine seizing and destroying agricultural machinery, fertiliser, seeds and fuel stocks. Furthermore, Argentina government raised their export tax for soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 33%. However, weaker than expected export demand for palm oil and reversed in crude oil prices limited upside for palm oil prices Traders remained cautious ahead of the summit meeting between US president and NATO allies amid high expectations that US will announce a series of new economic sanctions against Russia Technical View: 1.Inside bar formed which indicates reversal signal that market likely to resume uptrend 2.Stochastic showed mixed signal as K% line is moving down in weekly but crossed up in daily chart. We expect market may move higher if market able to break and sustain above 6300. Suggestion Trade: Long if stay above 6250 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6043 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6457 TP2 6871 Short if stay below 5800 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6007 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 5593 TP2 5179 Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks. Happy Trading!! Cheers.
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
FCPO Support at 5,000? CPO plunged and closed sharply lower at 5629 last week. What caused palm oil prices deep drop last week? 1. Indonesia announced surprised policy U-turn to remove export volume restrictions on palm oil products and raised its export levy from $375 per tons to $675 per tons. Indonesia government also subsidize bulk cooking oil starting from 1st April 2022 to cool prices and maintain purchasing power. 2. Argentina imposed new export restrictions that temporarily suspended exports for soybean flour and oil amidst rumours if is planning to hike taxes due to surge in primary material costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 3. Weakness in Crude oil prices as traders focus on the progress of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine which may reduce demand for biofuel 4. China sold their cooking oil reserves as buyers favor more on discounted SBO over palm oil as premium products. Besides, resurgence of coronavirus fears in China dampening market sentiment 5. Soybean oil declined on positive weather for crops in South America ease dry crops. Technical View: 1. Obviously Long Black bar formed after palm oil prices deep drop last week which indicates sell signal. 2. Stochastic K% line is moving down in weekly and daily chart which indicates sell signals. However K% near to oversold in daily chart, which indicates market likely to rebound before further drop. We expect market may bounce if touch on immediate support level at 5365 before further drop. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5600 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5803 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 5397 TP2 4991 Long if stay above 6300 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6097 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6503 TP2 6909 Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks. Happy Trading!! Cheers.
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by happytrading96
CPO Unstoppable Rocket? Or…. Ranging?What’s other factors would continue to move palm oil prices? 1. India imports hit 12-months low on sky high prices in CPO. This may led to demand further decline as buyers are price sensitive as it relies on imports for 60% of its needs. Currently, India rely on existing stockpiles and incoming domestic rapeseed crop to meet domestic demand 2. Revision of export restriction from Indonesia as food protectionism grows. Companies need to allocate 30% of exports for home market. Government are taking steps to safeguard domestic food supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 3. Malaysia announced, the border restrictions is entering endemic phase start from 1st of April 2022 , which also means that more foreign workers arrive in May and June. 4. Soybean oil lower after USDA (United States of Department Agriculture) monthly forecasts showed world soybean supplies above expectations. 5. Declined in crude oil prices reduce demand for biodiesel blending. Technical View: 1. Again shooting star formed as profit taking after touched on historical high at 7268 which indicate sell signal. 2. Stochastic K% line is moving up in weekly and crossed up in daily chart which indicates market likely to resume its uptrend We have mixed signals this week. We expect market may move within range of 6500-7100. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 6600 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6783 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 6417 TP2 6051 Long if stay above 7000 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6817 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 7183 TP2 7549 ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
CPO Continue above 7000? Or Ready for Correction?FCPO declined by nearly 8% on last Friday and closed at 6276 as profit taking took place, but posted 2nd weekly gains after touched on historical high at 7108. So, what’s make palm oil now the costlier edible oil among the 4 major edible oils? Global commodities rallied following EU bans certain Russian banks from SWIFT bank payment system which aimed to stuttering the Russia economy and introduces further restrictions. The war expected to disrupt the processing and export of Ukraine oilseeds crops for at least 1 month and curb flow of sunflower seed to the European Union. 2. India’s reserve is facing a depletion in stocks levels with a lack of shipments of sunflower oil from the Black Sea Region. India requested Indonesia temporary reduce their biodiesel blending rules and increase the exports to mitigate disrupted supplies of sunflower oil. 3. Rising concerns on adequate palm supply levels for post-Ramadan restocking. While expectations of higher productions in coming months as high output cycle kicks in and government also announced new migrant workers to work in plantation sector capped gains. 4. Soybean oil prices closed lower as profit taking and rainfall in Brazil and Argentina eased dry weather conditions. Technical View: 1. Shooting star formed at resistance level of 7100, which indicates market losing uptrend momentum and also a reversal signal 2. Stochastic K% line is crossing down in both weekly and daily chart which indicates downtrend signal We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5825 Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 6200 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6365 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 6035 TP2 5705 Long if stay above 6800 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6635 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6965 TP2 7295 **Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks**
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
1
FCPO continue 6400 or Short Term Correction?FCPO set their biggest weekly gains in more than 9 months despite a sharp drop on Friday, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine stoked worries about global edible oil supply. I believe who traded last week hopefully you were enjoy the roller coaster ride in the market. For your information, Ukraine is a major key supplier of grains and oilseeds globally, any further threats to trade will shift demand for other vegetable oil such as SBO and CPO. As we all knew that the unresolved Ukraine crisis may further erode the supply of vegetable oil, grains, crude and natural gas due to the grain flows disruption in Black Sea export region with all transportation avenue were disrupted by military operation. Besides, India stopped buying sunflower oil following ports suspended operation on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India pivot to alternate oils could further support Malaysian palm oil and US soyoil. On the other hand, surging in COVID cases also keep palm oil prices elevated for 1H2022 as shortage of labour and supplies. Furthermore, worsening yields in Argentina and Brazil pushed importers to buy from alternative supplier. Technical View: Market uptrend remains with immediate support at 5825. Stochastic K% line is crossing down at overbought zone in both weekly and daily chart which indicates reversal signal We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5625 Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5885 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 6023 Target Profit level (support level) TP1 5747 TP2 5471 Long if stay above 6200 Target Stop Loss (support level) 6062 Target Profit level (resistance level) TP1 6338 TP2 6614 ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
FCPO TRADING : 319) new era of 6kthis is haidojo and the number is 319 ... Yesterday, 24th Feb22 marked the darkest hour in history as Russia engaged a massive full-attack on Ukraine and this triggered fcpo-may to peak at its highest at 6470! The highest price ever in the history, so far. At the time as I wrote this, fcpo-may is facing a hard profit-taking activities and plunged into 6140 region ald...So, if I were to trade, I shall temporarily go for "short" after the event of war but fcpo-may is still in the uptrend for the medium to long-term. Until further support levels are broken. It is still unsure if the event of Russia-Ukraine war outbreak will contain in the North region only or the malicious arm of war conflicts would spread to other parts of the world if NATO or the allies seek retaliation. Thus, back to technical price, fcpo-may seeks the nearest support levels ranged frm 5980-6090, the next proceeding levels range frm 5700-5778 and the strong support and critical support range frm 5380-5500. See if those levels are broken, then we might have encountered some reversal of trend. That's all for the update today. *plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck* resistance : 6340-6470 (NSH and also new historical high) support : 5980-6090 lower support : 5700-5778 WARNING! RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD … any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… trade at your own risk!
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by HAIDOJO_trading
Reversal Signs Continue in Palm Oil MarketFCPO closed higher at 5539 after gap filled at 5612 by last Friday but posted weekly losses. What were the factors that caused crude palm oil prices struggling to maintain above 5800? 1. India reduce farm infrastructure tax on CPO to 5%, which will effective until Sept 30, with the objective to increase gap between CPO and refined palm oil to benefit the domestic refining industry. 2. Uncertainties over Ukraine crisis lead market to stay vigilant on possible rising tensions. 3. Better production forecast for 1st half of Feb limited the upside of palm oil prices 4. Soybean Oil continue to move higher as concerns over weather forecast and fire incident broke in US biodiesel plant at Claypool, Indiana. Furthermore, India acquire massive purchase on soybean oil as high soybean price for local crushers to reduce output. 5. Crude Oil prices extended losses as prospects of extra supply from Iran. Weaker crude make palm less attractive option for biodiesel feedstock. 6. Near month spread widen as traders foresee East Malaysia production remains weak for Feb. Technical View: Market reversal signs remains. Gravestone doji formed in Daily Chart after market tried to move higher but sell down by the market. Stochastic K% line is crossing down at overbought zone in both weekly and daily chart We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5350. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5550 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5625 Target Profit (support level) TP1 5425 TP2 5345 TP 5245
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by happytrading96
Reversal Signs in Palm Oil Market?Market closed slightly higher at 5573 last Friday after tighter range move. Some key factors continue to weigh on palm oil prices: 1. Indonesia had expanded its export permit requirement for palm oil products where exporters must sell 20% of their exports at home and with price cap to other derivatives. This further raising fears of global supply disruptions. The regulation valid from Feb 15. 2. Latest Malaysia Palm Oil Board data showed lower inventories and production due to labor shortage and flooding; lower exports due to rising palm oil prices However, analysts’ expectations that current high price not sustainable 3. some participants expecting production to pick up in March as Malaysia Government targeting full scale reopening of international border 4. . Soybean oil continued uptrend, as LaNina brought in hot weather across key South America growing areas and strong demand on US soybean 5. Strong crude oil prices amid ongoing worries about supply disruptions from the Russia and Ukraine crisis Technical View: 1. Market uptrend paused with hanging man formed at resistance level of 5750, indicates reversal signal 2. Stochastic reached overbought level and K% line is crossing down which signalled reversal signal We expect market may have short term retracement if market unable to stay above 5500. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5365 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5478 Target Profit (support level) TP1 5252 TP2 5026 Long if stay above 5685 Target Stop Loss (support level) 5572 Target Profit (resistance level) TP1 5798 TP2 6024
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
FCPO TRADING : 318) possible reversal but needs confirmationthis is haidojo and the number is 318 ... After a mild rebound frm 5440-5520 range, fcpo-apr didn't make any New Structure High (NSH) but forming a Double Top (DT). The NSH is 5749 and any breakout pattern/trade needs to move higher than this level. The next level is 5220-5380 was also hit and rebound into 5570-5630 level. Now, fcpo-apr is at the crossroad again... IF it moves higher, THEN it will breaks the previous NSH and creates more NSH...THEN uptrend resumes. IF it moves lower, THEN it forms Lower-High (LH), and a possible reversal happens until the price breaks lower than the previous Higher-Low(HL). So, now juz sit back and relax. Wait for the price to tell us what to do. Till then, do absolutely nothing. That's all for the update today. *plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck* resistance : 5700-5749 (current NSH) immediate support : 5440-5520 lower support : 5220 - 5360 WARNING! RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD …any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING . It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… trade at your own risk!
MYX:FCPO1!
by HAIDOJO_trading