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USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Calendar Futures

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CPO1! trade ideas

FCPO Week 37 2024: BULLISH.The 4-hour chart indicates a strong upward price movement. An inverted head and shoulders pattern has emerged, with the price breaking above the neckline, marking the first wave of the move. This was followed by a brief consolidation phase, representing the second wave. Now, the price appears ready to resume its upward momentum, potentially forming the third wave. Watch for a breakout as this wave could push prices higher. A buy position may be considered, with a target price of 4018 for potential profit.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by edramlan
4
FCPO. Aiming higher. Continuing from our previous analysis (click above image), which alerted us to the probability of a bull trap, the price moved and created a false breakout, then traded back lower to the extreme low swing, thereby confirming the bull trap. Currently, we observe an initial movement to the upside with strong momentum, suggesting that wave 4 may have reached its bottom. Our focus is now shifting to the upside, and we expect to see a rally in a motive structure. The invalidation for this idea is set at 3849, where we consider this could be the end of wave 4. The downside movement is limited to this level for this idea.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by pengiran-
FCPO. REJECTION AT 38.2%.Following the guidelines in Elliott Wave Theory, "The Right Look" we adjust our wave labeling because the proportion of wave 4 is too large to fit within the subwave structure. It is a good sign that the price is rejecting decline at the Fibonacci 38.2% level. Our focus now is on the development of Wave 5. The last wave to complete the Motive cycle. Invalidation for this idea is at 3872. Refering to Elliott Wave rules for Wave 5: "Wave 5 always subdivides into an impulse or a diagonal" We would expect rallies toward the 4000 area in a classic motive wave structure. Another possible scenario to consider is the truncation of Wave 5, given that Wave 3 is an extended wave. Truncation happen when Wave 5 fail to move beyond the extreme swing high of Wave 3 Bottom line: If Wave 4 has ended and Wave 5 is in the early stages of development, any retracement is limited to the 3872 level. Trading below this level will require reassessment of the wave structure.
MYX:FCPOX2024Long
by pengiran-
FCPO. HIGHER TO COMPLETE WAVE 3 CYCLEPrice reached 2.618 fibonacci relationship compare to wave 1. Evaluation based on market structure, we see an extension wave 5 within wave (3) rally. If wave (3) has ended at fibonacci 2.618 area, we expect to see a 3 wave decline for wave (4) correction. Elliott Wave Theory: GUIDELINE OF ALTERNATION WITHIN AN IMPLUSE " If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. " Looking at our price chart, Wave (2) already unfold into a flat pattern and flat pattern is a side way correction. We can expect to see a sharp correction pattern for Wave (4) BEHAVIOR FOLLOWING FIFTH WAVE EXTENSIONS " ..when the fifth wave of an advance is an extension, the ensuing correction will be sharp and find support at the level of the low of wave two of the extension. Sometimes the correction ends there and sometimes only wave A ends there... Additional value is provided by the fact that fifth wave extensions are typically followed by swift retracements. " Projection area and pattern for wave (4) retracement using Elliott Wave Theory for alternation and fifth wave extension theory, expecting to see a sharp correction in wave (4) toward 3900-3880 area. Bottom line: Short term view, looking for significant retracement for a sign that wave (3) rally has ended. Long term view, we are still aiming higher to complete wave 3 cycle on a larger degree. Trading above yesterday high will required reassesment on the structure.
MYX:FCPOX2024
by pengiran-
FCPO. I AM WRONG IN MY PREVIOUS WAVE COUNT.One of the five ways the wave principle improves trading, wave analysis provides a specific point of invalidation, which is the level at which an interpretation is no longer viable. Knowing when you are wrong is perhaps a trader’s most important piece of information. Market always right, it was my previous operative wave count is incorrect. Adjusting to the current structure, wave 3 of 3 already reach 1.618 fibonacci relationship compare to wave 1. Currently, there is no sign of significant retracement that telling wave 3 of 3 is complete. For now, we still aim high. Next reasonable target is 2.618 fibonacci level where wave 3 is an extended wave. Let's see what the market will offer us for next week. Accept failure but never give up, it is part of the process to become a consistently successful trader!
MYX:FCPOX2024Long
by pengiran-
1
FCPO - THE MOMENT OF TRUTHWe got our 5 wave down and 3 wave up. But currently price is trading near our invalidation level. As for now, Elliott rules for impusle wave still hold where wave 2 can never retrace 100% of wave 1. Trading above our invalidation level would invalidate the current wave analysis, requiring a reassessment of the wave structure. Alternate count idea: extreme low of today morning trading session can be lable as wave 4 end point and the upside rally in today trading session as wave 5.
MYX:FCPOX2024
by pengiran-
FCPO - 5 WAVE DOWN, NEXT 3 WAVE UP!Continue from previous post. We can see a clear 5 sub-wave structure was observed during evening session. This motive movement to the downside and trading below 3686 strengthen the idea that wave C has complete. *** 5 Wave structure on 1 minute chart. Next, we would like to see a retracement that potentially will bring back price to 3700 area for sub-wave 2. Invalidation for this wave analysis = 3734. Let's see what the market will offer us next week. Happy holiday to All FCPO trader!
MYX:FCPOX2024
by pengiran-
FCPO - WAVE 5 OF C TOPPED?Continue working with the hypothesis that a running flat was forming in FCPO: We have a clear 5 wave structure advance from extreme low of Wave B giving us indication that wave C maybe complete. If Wave C topped and Running Flat pattern is complete, then we would like to see a downward movement of price toward 3686 level in a motive sequence before we start formulating a trading plan for this pattern. Invalidation level is for this idea set at wave C extreme high = 3734.
MYX:FCPOX2024
by pengiran-
2