SPX vs. NASDAQ vs. BTC1! vs. ETH1!: filling the gapsWe are in for a big week with the Fed's announcement on potential interest hikes and further tapering of their bond buying program. Are they already priced in? Let's have a look...
We have seen the typical panic across the board for the Fed's announcement (we knew this since last July!), the expectations are increased interest rates and potentially more than 4 hikes this year. Obviously, this is needed because of the record inflation numbers. However the Fed also wants to prevent heavy corrections in the market. Since the March 2020 lows, both stocks and crypto have been flying on monetary expansion and inflation creating a buy the rumor, and - when inflation numbers hit the market - sell the news.
We have seen a strong correction in Bitcoin, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq. Does this means interest hikes are priced in and this is the bottom? Maybe. But I still lean towards; no. There are many factors at play here, the most obvious one are the futures and options on Bitcoin, the S&P500 and the Nasdaq. With increasingly bearish action and bearish puts or shorts, market makers had to respond with a squeeze. Most obviously in Bitcoin, where a few hundred million of short liquidations were within reach. I also posted about a potential squeeze on Friday - even though price dipped further - a squeeze was expected and therefor always take profits before you get wiped out.
The ball is now with the Fed and I assume market makers already know the outcome of their new policy or have a clue. This defines also my trading strategy: what would I do if I was the market maker. Now, puts and shorts have been favor for the last week, creating reason for a squeeze, however, net gamm is still long and institutions have taken a hit with bullish calls on BTC. In the last 24 hours has seen a total of 300M liquidations (on all coins) and there is still liquidity to take out to the upside but offset that with immense call volume above 40K uptill 100K+ there is room for downside as well. With a relatively big options expiration on Friday, further downside towards the 30K zone could be favored even though max pain is at 42K. This is also seen in the higher volume in at the money options traded by the market makers to hedge against lower prices. Furthermore, puts at the 30K zone could be consumed by the market maker to create liquidity for a short squeeze in February - unless see a rally on Wednesday already if the Fed announces mild policies.
Short conclusion is: the market maker is neutral at this point having hedged against the recent drops and now awaits the reaction to the Fed on Wednesday. Mind you, they will know it much earlier than you so they will start to act before the news is out.
We can not trade any direction at this point and you're not missing out on anything if you're in cash right now. Risk / return wise cash is the place to be and it has been ever since my first warning in early December. Sentiment around Bitcoin is becoming increasingly bearish and Ethereum increasingly bullish; something that I expected for a while now and a full story on that later.
All gaps to the upside are filled here and there are only gaps left to the downside, a direction that market makers have been preparing and retail has not considered. Short term we can expect a choppy market again, long term I do expect further continuation of the trend especially if we can not reclaim the weekly 50 EMA. First, lets wait for Wednesday.
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
