Looking for sideways to higher before new lowsThis is a continuation of my recent first TV post a couple weeks ago. It looks even better confirmed now that the 208 area was our short to intermediate term top in cattle. There is a possibility it was THE top, if we close below our 189 wave 1 area, especially on a weekly basis for conservative confirmation. Then it'd be 2015 all over again, the likely confirmed end of the larger cattle bull cycle. My preferred take is still for new all-time highs later this year though. We were extremely overbought, the funds at record long, and technical indicators all showing us we were due for a notable top and heavy correction. Here we have been getting the hard down the last couple weeks. I feel that today's 38.2% retracement back to the 8/21/24 low at 195.50 is a good area to look for some interim strength, or at least basing. This wave 4 down is likely to be complex and longer-driven, as wave 2 was a simple zigzag and short and to the point. It's quite possible we drag this thing out until sometime in April for a seasonally weaker time frame, before making a final 5th wave up. Seasonality and some other indication points to a possible major trend change in September of this year, so that's possibly when we finally drag out the top wave 5 in? It could be quite a bit sooner though too. I still like the idea of the 220 area in the longterm, and it's still possible with EW technicals, as although wave 5 would be "longer than the norm" when wave 3 is extended (it looks to have been), wave 5 could still be 0.618 of wave 1+3 which would get you around that 220 area if we do indeed drop down to the 190 area for wave 4. It could also be shallower than that, but it's likely to be complex like a flat or triangle in here either way.
My related post:
