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LE1! trade ideas

Cattle Continuous Cattle: The gray vertical bars represent the expiration month of labeled contract and have prices of each contract as of today labeled. The 2019 low has provided a pivot for a parallel uptrend line (highlighted in yellow) that has acted as a strong magnet since moving up off the covid crash low. Any of the lines could act as support/resistance. Support area marked in gray, risk area marked in red, and opportunity area marked in green. Deferred contracts can use the uptrend/downtrend lines or highlighted areas as well… **Could use the shaded areas for 3 way option spreads on deferred contracts**.
CME:LE1!
by mtb1980
Cattle, Corn, S&P500Cattle, Corn, and S&P 500: The fundamentals may be different now compared to in 2008, but I think these 3 markets are well intertwined. The effect of a major drawdown in the equities could impact all markets for a time. It sure seems that Cattle have some strong fundamentals to make a run up as it did from 2010 to 2014, but the timing of when that potential run higher begins is a million-dollar question. If the equity markets find support, beef should be in the race to higher levels with energies and other commodities…. If equities crash further, be careful
CME:LE1!
by mtb1980
2
That’s going to be one expensive steak!Where can we feel the impact of high inflation most directly in our daily lives? Food and energy! Livestock is a market that certainly deserves more of our attention. Surging energy prices (especially natural gas) have led to high fertilizer prices, which pushed up grain prices. Eventually, that gets translated into higher prices for livestock which are heavily affected by the prices of corn and other feeds. The transmission takes time; therefore, the opportunity window to position ourselves is still open. It’s also a good time to stock up on some premium steaks in your freezer before they get a lot more expensive! December 2022 Live Cattle future has just broken out from a 10-week ascending triangle, which suggests that the next leg of the rally has likely started. Entry at 150.5, stop below 146.5. Targets are 155.5 and 160.5. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:LEZ2022Long
by inspirante
Continuous Live CattleWeekly Cont. Cattle: So far the Parallel uptrend line based off the 2019 low has proved to be a strong action/reaction line. The longer price holds to this line the stronger the bull run is. The Red uptrend line off 2020’s low must hold to continue a stable (potential bull) market for live cattle. Any of the lines on the chart could act as support/resistance (or action/reaction lines) 4th qtr risk in the 115.00 to 120.00 area. Further risk against the Red line at 105.00 to 110.00. Resistance is 130.00 to 135 area. For the week ending 10/15: Resistance at 128.00, Support at 122.00 & 119.50
CME:LE1!
by mtb1980
Continuous Live CattleWeekly Cont. Cattle: So far the Parallel uptrend line based off the 2019 low has proved to be a strong action/reaction line. The longer price holds to this line the stronger the bull run is. The Red uptrend line off 2020’s low must hold to continue a stable (potential bull) market for live cattle. Any of the lines on the chart could act as support/resistance (or action/reaction lines) 4th qtr risk in the 115.00 to 120.00 area. Further risk against the Red line at 105.00 to 110.00. Resistance is 130.00 to 135 area.
CME:LE1!
by mtb1980
live cattle. do less bad things. I implore you.I have been doing some fasting recently. I haven't been doing it that much this year compared to usual, and it's a pretty misery inducing process, but I always feel pretty good when it's done. I just finished a 24 hour fast before posting this, and now I have the energy to mark up a chart and ask people to consume less. I have gone as long as 5 days back in the day, but I'm not in the same physical condition I was then, so I'm pretty happy with 24 hours in the present. Fasting is really good for your health. Even if you can't accomplish the durations you were setting out for originally you will still reap some benefit.
CME:LEQ2021
by emehoke
live cattle. pollute less. it couldn't be more serious.Consider what effect your lifestyle has on the planet. If you are reading this you are probably in the top percent of people contributing to climate change, therefore, you also have the most potential to help. You could say these numbers are slightly skewed because of all the children in africa and india that are, lets just say, not contributing much to global warming. Don't let that make you feel better for too long, or you'll probably be one of them the next time around. I'll bet they know how to appreciate the little things a hell of a lot better than you and me. ------ Looks like price will be climbing higher, but I've marked out the major areas very plainly.
CME:LEQ2021
by emehoke
Continuous CattleWeekly Cont. Cattle: So far the Parallel uptrend line based off the 2019 low has proved to be a strong action/reaction line. **Cycle high/low targeted the week of 3/29 and appears to have done the job. Next cycle date will target the week of (or around) 8/02 to place a swing high or low….Range bound support is the gray bubble and resistance is the Yellow bubble. Outside risk is the red bubble and Outside resistance is the blue bubble. Will watch current front month charts for direction to fine tune targets. Any of the lines on the chart could act as support/resistance (or action/reaction lines)
CME:LE1!
by mtb1980
mastering elliot waves. whats lean cattle doing?Lean cattle, given the selection of m1 that I have chosen to focus my attention on, is showing Rule 7, condition c. This is an unfortunate selection for the lazy-hearted. Rule 7 Condition c has a lot of extensions, and given the different circumstances could be labeled with an F3, L3, L5, or sL3. I still don't know what those mean, but I can draw some conclusions based off of how the author is writing that an "Irregular Failure Flat" is linked to L5's, "Contracting Triangles" are linked to L3's, "Expanding Terminal Impulses" are linked with :sL3, and "Running Corrections" are also linked to L5's somehow. Furthermore, I don't know what those terms mean, but I am confident that I haven't drawn any false conclusions. Why doesn't this book come with flashcards? I can't label m1 all of these things. I will now choose the description that I think fits it most closely: I selected ":F3" because -- if m1 takes the same amount of time (or less) as m0 or m1 takes the same amount of time (or more) as m2, despite any other circumstances, ":F3" is a good possibility; place ":F3" at the end of m1. The other choices all needed too many things to be true for them to be the proper designation. The next closest was an ":L3" designation. I discarded this idea because m2 was supposed to be sharper than m2 and it is not. m0 was very sharp on this one. This was the contracting triangle one, which I don't know what that means exactly, but it does break out of a triangle to the casual viewer. What do you think would you place an F3 or an L3 at the end of m1? ----------- Wow, this was a ton of work to come up with a shaky conclusion. Looks like I need to read ahead a little because I have no idea how F3 fits into anything anyways. Here is the definition of (F3): This structure label is the abbreviation for "First three (3)." An ":F3" either starts a series, occurs after an "x:c3" or is found between two ":5's" (all variations). If you find two ":F3's" next to each other, a new pattern (of a smaller magnitude) begins with the second ":F3." Circle the start of both ":F3's", but do not attempt to connect the two until the second ":F3" can become part of a polywave pattern using waves which proceed it (a polywave is an Elliot pattern composed of three or more monowaves). It goes on to give a couple lists of how an F3 would fit into a sequence. An example of that would be 1. ? - F3 - c3 - L5 (circle start of F3). ...And so on. This is mostly just to say none of this really makes sense to me right now, but I have to keep trying to shape these ideas or else I won't be able to use any of this info. I don't really like this book. I have to read every passage several times to make it stick :/ ... Not nearly as enjoyable as looking for simple patterns. I was going to give more accurate take on live cattle vs feeder cattle, but now I'm kind of bummed so I'll do that another time perhaps.
CME:LEQ2021Education
by emehoke
cattle pushing tentatively higher.cattle are moseying upward. looking for continuation out of a bull flag with trendline support. I like the patterns I see here so I will plan to make an overly-complicated Elliot wave translation of what I'm seeing sometime within the next 10 hours. Regarding seasonality, I can't remember any good details on seasonality, but I can remember reading two pages on this topic in a book like 3 years ago, but I can't remember what was on the pages. I remember a little bit though now that I'm asking for recall. There's like a 3 part life cycle as far as markets are concerned. There is a baby stage, where they just kind of count the numbers of possible cattle for the months ahead.. then a maturation stage, where some of the cattle are big enough to go to market, and some are sent back into the feeder for more growing, then there's the slaughtering stage, where all the large cattle get shipped out. There is a period of the year generally when they are contributing more attention to the growth of cattle than other times of the year, and the count of these numbers maybe could be used to predict shortages or surpluses. I would guess that's spring and summer, but I'm not certain. I am from Wisconsin so it's a little shameful I don't know this. Then obviously the price of raising cattle is dependent on the price of feeding them so if wheat/corn is higher then it costs more to feed them. I'm not sure if the result is farmers feed 900 cattle instead of the regular 1000 or if they just eat the cost and just feed as many cattle as they can regardless of feed prices. That assumption also relies on farmers following strict rule based feeding schedules, which I think they do pretty well if they are running big farms. But you never know. I could be getting the stages of cattle mixed up with the stages for hogs. My brain wants to lump them together, but I'm also am finding an asterisk so I think there are significant differences that I'm unaware of. Probably better to do your own research. You can maybe tell I'm more of a price action oriented person.
CME:LEQ2021Long
by emehoke
LE1! Continuous CattleWeekly Cont. Cattle: So far the Parallel uptrend line based off the 2019 low has proved to be a strong action/reaction line. Currently working as a magnet with last week’s close right on it. **Cycle high/low targeted the week of 3/29 and appears to have done the job. Next cycle date will target the week of (or around) 8/02 to place a swing high or low….Using the parallel lines would have support at that time in the 116 to 112 area, and have upside potential around 136. Any of the lines on the chart could act as support/resistance (or action/reaction lines)
CME:LE1!
by mtb1980