LE1! - Live Cattle Futures Looking BullishConsistent with commodities in general - cattle prices looking ripe for a move up.
LE1! trade ideas
leq21. live cattle. eat less meat, you're not a velociraptor.eat less meat. the world will continue to host human life for longer as a direct result. I'm operating on the assumption that prolonged human presence is a good thing. This is what optimism must feel like. I can hardly contain my joy.
Continuous CattleWeekly Cont. Cattle: So far the Parallel uptrend line based off the 2019 low has proved to be a strong action/reaction line.
**Cycle high/low targeted the week of 3/29 and appears to have done the job. Next cycle date will target the week of (or around) 8/02 to place a swing high or low….Range bound support is the gray bubble and resistance is the Yellow bubble. Outside risk is the red bubble and Outside resistance is the blue bubble. Will watch current front month charts for direction to fine tune targets.
Any of the lines on the chart could act as support/resistance (or action/reaction lines)
mastering elliot waves. whats lean cattle doing?Lean cattle, given the selection of m1 that I have chosen to focus my attention on, is showing Rule 7, condition c.
This is an unfortunate selection for the lazy-hearted. Rule 7 Condition c has a lot of extensions, and given the different circumstances could be labeled with an F3, L3, L5, or sL3. I still don't know what those mean, but I can draw some conclusions based off of how the author is writing that an "Irregular Failure Flat" is linked to L5's, "Contracting Triangles" are linked to L3's, "Expanding Terminal Impulses" are linked with :sL3, and "Running Corrections" are also linked to L5's somehow. Furthermore, I don't know what those terms mean, but I am confident that I haven't drawn any false conclusions. Why doesn't this book come with flashcards?
I can't label m1 all of these things. I will now choose the description that I think fits it most closely:
I selected ":F3" because -- if m1 takes the same amount of time (or less) as m0 or m1 takes the same amount of time (or more) as m2, despite any other circumstances, ":F3" is a good possibility; place ":F3" at the end of m1.
The other choices all needed too many things to be true for them to be the proper designation.
The next closest was an ":L3" designation. I discarded this idea because m2 was supposed to be sharper than m2 and it is not. m0 was very sharp on this one. This was the contracting triangle one, which I don't know what that means exactly, but it does break out of a triangle to the casual viewer.
What do you think would you place an F3 or an L3 at the end of m1?
-----------
Wow, this was a ton of work to come up with a shaky conclusion. Looks like I need to read ahead a little because I have no idea how F3 fits into anything anyways.
Here is the definition of (F3):
This structure label is the abbreviation for "First three (3)." An ":F3" either starts a series, occurs after an "x:c3" or is found between two ":5's" (all variations). If you find two ":F3's" next to each other, a new pattern (of a smaller magnitude) begins with the second ":F3." Circle the start of both ":F3's", but do not attempt to connect the two until the second ":F3" can become part of a polywave pattern using waves which proceed it (a polywave is an Elliot pattern composed of three or more monowaves).
It goes on to give a couple lists of how an F3 would fit into a sequence. An example of that would be
1. ? - F3 - c3 - L5 (circle start of F3).
...And so on.
This is mostly just to say none of this really makes sense to me right now, but I have to keep trying to shape these ideas or else I won't be able to use any of this info. I don't really like this book. I have to read every passage several times to make it stick :/ ... Not nearly as enjoyable as looking for simple patterns.
I was going to give more accurate take on live cattle vs feeder cattle, but now I'm kind of bummed so I'll do that another time perhaps.
cattle pushing tentatively higher.cattle are moseying upward. looking for continuation out of a bull flag with trendline support.
I like the patterns I see here so I will plan to make an overly-complicated Elliot wave translation of what I'm seeing sometime within the next 10 hours.
Regarding seasonality, I can't remember any good details on seasonality, but I can remember reading two pages on this topic in a book like 3 years ago, but I can't remember what was on the pages. I remember a little bit though now that I'm asking for recall. There's like a 3 part life cycle as far as markets are concerned. There is a baby stage, where they just kind of count the numbers of possible cattle for the months ahead.. then a maturation stage, where some of the cattle are big enough to go to market, and some are sent back into the feeder for more growing, then there's the slaughtering stage, where all the large cattle get shipped out. There is a period of the year generally when they are contributing more attention to the growth of cattle than other times of the year, and the count of these numbers maybe could be used to predict shortages or surpluses. I would guess that's spring and summer, but I'm not certain. I am from Wisconsin so it's a little shameful I don't know this. Then obviously the price of raising cattle is dependent on the price of feeding them so if wheat/corn is higher then it costs more to feed them. I'm not sure if the result is farmers feed 900 cattle instead of the regular 1000 or if they just eat the cost and just feed as many cattle as they can regardless of feed prices. That assumption also relies on farmers following strict rule based feeding schedules, which I think they do pretty well if they are running big farms. But you never know.
I could be getting the stages of cattle mixed up with the stages for hogs. My brain wants to lump them together, but I'm also am finding an asterisk so I think there are significant differences that I'm unaware of. Probably better to do your own research. You can maybe tell I'm more of a price action oriented person.
LEQ2021 Aug Live CattleAug Cattle – Daily: Tenkan support at 121.50, Kijun support at 120.25 and further support at 118.75.
Risk would be priced against the uptrend line
Targets above at the 125.70 high and then above at 127.10, 128.50 with a primary target at 130.50
LE1! Continuous CattleWeekly Cont. Cattle: So far the Parallel uptrend line based off the 2019 low has proved to be a strong action/reaction line. Currently working as a magnet with last week’s close right on it.
**Cycle high/low targeted the week of 3/29 and appears to have done the job. Next cycle date will target the week of (or around) 8/02 to place a swing high or low….Using the parallel lines would have support at that time in the 116 to 112 area, and have upside potential around 136. Any of the lines on the chart could act as support/resistance (or action/reaction lines)
Live Cattle. Reverse, Reverse.Live cattle is still very much bullish. I'm only gloating at this point, because my position is doing very well.
I was following this chart for a while, saying that it was going to go up, and it did go up. This is a needed boost for my confidence at the moment because my stock positions are in a tactical drawdown.
I do not like stocks. Not on a boat. Not on a goat.
We'll Meat Again, Don't Know Where...This one can be a volatile spread, and that goes both ways.
The idea is to buy Live Cattle and sell Lean Hogs for a trade that runs May though to August. The reason for this trade is seasonal. That is, there is a pattern that tends to repeat itself each year.
Heading into mid-year, Cattle slaughter tends to be high while Hogs are at the opposite end. But that pattern reverses itself when we are past mid-year and looking towards the end of the year. That creates the spread movement.
In the last 25yrs, buying April Cattle and selling Dec Hogs, has lost money only 3 times. 22 out of 25 is not bad. Optimized data of course, but there is a pattern there! The average profit in that time has been over $3500 for one spread. You can also do this spread in nearby contracts, eg Dec Cattle.
It’s a volatile one though. Drawdowns can be, what’s the word…interesting. It makes this trade more about getting entries correct. An early to mid-June pull back has happened in more years than not. Waiting for that can give a better entry time.
Caveat: it ain’t that simple. Spread trading takes knowledge, support, patience and trade management, but the gems are there when we look in the right place.
One last thought: you cannot use 'beef stew' as a password. It's just not stroganoff.
- Please follow and like for more trade ideas and learny stuff! -
LEM2021. Live Cattle. The saga continues.I have been following live cattle for a while. I chose it because it seemed like a really random market that I wouldn't be bringing any market prejudices along with me, therefore, might help myself to trade it with a clear eyes.
I feel like I am seeing the market clearly, at least to the best of my present ability, and that live cattle is in a very favorable position to limit your downside and maximize your upside.
For the love of god, at least take this in your sim account so you can be a little more sensitive to it's movements.
LEM21. Live Cattle reacting to lines. Zooming in.Live cattle is playing by the rules. Still waiting for the resistance break.
Live Cattle(/LE) vs Feeder Cattle(/GF) 3:2 Ratio Notional ValueLive Cattle(/LE) vs Feeder Cattle(/GF) 3:2 Ratio Notional Value
LE1!*1200-GF1!*1000
Live Cattle Update. Small bounce could become big bounce.We got a small bounce at an important level, and now we are waiting for the trendline to break which would tell us it could become a big bounce.
At the moment we have price hesitation which turned into a pro gap. That's a good bullish sign. But, this downtrend has been very strong, and I'm not willing to be a minute trader for LC. This causes me to wait for the larger time frame candles to show verified momentum. I'm looking for a big green leg candle on the daily before I get involved.
Maybe I will change my mind, but I feel pretty secure with that strategy.
Lean Cattle. Convincing myself it will go higher.It looks really good to me.
I have an incredible lazy streak. It's possible this only appeals to me so that I can take some action and stop paying attention every day. Obviously, this is not the ideal characterization of a profitable trader, but I'm still doing a good job convincing myself it's a high probability outcome.
Sooner or later I'm going to become clever enough to be useful to myself. But, then you might not like me anymore :(.
---
I could also reason one of two things:
1) Price has come down this far : It's a good buy.
2) Price has come down this far: It could go lower.
Unless, there is something like a cow-pox I feel like prices should go higher. I don't think there will be a cow-pox. Just using it as a stand in for 'big-unpredictable-market-specific-catastrophe'.
So door #1 says the .5 level is good enough for me, and I'm thinking it will go back up. In fact, I don't think it will go down, and I think it's a good price possibly for the next full calendar year.
Door #2 says I think it's possible price comes lower, and I think it will come lower.
----
I really don't think #2 is the door most people will open. I think the idea that price might not be this low for another entire year would be enough to make any forward thinking meat distributer want to use at least a good portion of there liquidity in the markets over the next few days. Actually this has been happening as evidence from what the consolidation is telling us.
Traditional|LE1!|Long and shortLong and short LE1!
Activation of the transaction only when the blue zone is fixed/broken.
The author recommends the use of anchoring fixed the blue zone, this variation is less risky.
If there is increased volatility in the market and the price is held for more than 2-3 minutes behind the activation zone after the breakdown, then the activation of the idea occurs at the prices behind the activation zone.
Working out the support and resistance levels of the consolidation zone.
* Possible closing of a trade before reaching the take/stop zone. The author can close the deal for subjective reasons, this does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue working out the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author.
+ ! - zone highlighted by the ellipse is a zone of increased resistance, in this area there is a possible reversal for a correction, please take this factor into account in this transaction.
The "forecast" tool is used for more noticeable display of % (for the place of the usual % scale) of the price change, I do not put the date and time of the transaction, only %.
The breakdown of the upper blue zone - long.
Breakdown of the lower blue zone - short.
Working out the stop when the price returns to the level after activation + fixing in the red zone.
Blue zones - activation zones.
Green zone - take zone.
Red zone - stop zone.
Orange arrows indicate the direction of the take.
Red arrows indicate the direction of the stop.
Priority - The value of the priority parameter implies the author's subjective opinion about the more likely activation zone on this idea, this does not mean that this idea will be 80% activated by this parameter, the purpose of the parameter is to provide for the risk of the inverse of the zone parameter.
Example: "Priority Long: So the author inclines more in the direction of the activation zone open long trades, in this case, when reaching the activation zone in short you should be very careful, because this area may be highly likely to be punched about the breakdown/do not get to take/activate transaction from go to stop."
Please consider this parameter if you use my ideas.
SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas of the "new" format (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take.
P.S Please use RM (risk management) and MM (money management) if you decide to use my ideas, there will always be unprofitable ideas, this will definitely happen, the goal of the system is that there will be more profitable ideas at a distance.
Brazilian Cattle consolidationBr cattle has got a nice uptrend but now is showing some weakness for moment its a neutral position and take a profit if you ride it
LEJ2021. Live Cattle Daily. In the golden pocket.Any dedicated live cattle traders, I would love to hear your take! If you are there is no need to read what I have below. You would probably find it very stupid.
------
I do not understand the fundamentals surrounding this market as far as when the high prices are. Doing a quick google search I see from the first image brought up that typically live cattle is falling right about now and getting ready to rebound. We have been rising steadily for a while, so I think it's safe to say the market is not behaving to expectation. That makes me a little uncertain, but I am falling back on TA entirely for any decisions here.
I hate to buy anything before I see the momentum in my favor, but if I ever were to buy a zone, this wouldn't be a bad one. I have picked this apart thoroughly, and as non-biased as possible, and I think I did a really good job so I hope you enjoy.
-------
One thing I notice is that whenever I say "this wouldn't be the worst" or "this wouldn't be a bad one" historically it has been a bad one. If this goes against me I will have to make some conscious decisions to change just a little in that department.
---------
Cattle and Corn: An Obscure Spread With Interesting NumbersAn interesting spread here. I’ve traded this one on and off over the years. It’s a long-term hold and some years this spread just has a nice smooth trend.
Think of this spread as a cost of carry, in a way. Or perhaps: wholesale versus retail is a better way to look at it.
Feeder Cattle (young moo cows) + Corn (food) + time equals Live Cattle (grown up ones).
It’s like that math parents do when say “do you realize how much it costs to have a teenager and send him/her to college?”
In futures we can trade that, for cattle and corn at least. We can see where base cost of production is over or undervalued and with a bit of patience, these kinds of trend trades reveal themselves.
This one has a great seasonal pattern. That is, it tends to repeat itself each year. Not every year, but most years. Research says selling Feeders and Corn and buying live Cattle can be quite profitable. On average, an entry late April and exit late Sep has been profitable every year since 2005.
From 2006 onwards: 100% strike rate, average profit $3374 for one spread.
Formula:
(+2*400*Live Cattle) – (1*50* Corn) – (1*500 * Feeders)
Essentially it says one contracts of feeders (50000lbs) plus one of corn (5000 bushels) makes about two live cattle (80000lbs).
Some also trade a 1 Corn: 2 Feeders and 4 Live Cattle. Its’ essentially halving the corn requirement from above.
Remember, there are no rules in spread trading. Our job is to find the correlations and trade them.
Risk:
Hmmm, there are two ways to look at that. The stats say the worst drawdown in the last 15yrs in $5400 and that is about double of most other years in that time. So it’s not a small risk trade.
The other way is to eyeball a chart. That recent move from +2000 to 0 did not take long at all. Unless get a well-timed entry, then stops will have to be wide - a few thousand at least (about 3.3 times ATR). It’s one where you would start with a wide stop and bring it in should you see some equity.
Entries and exit need finesse since it’s not an exchange traded spread. Experienced spreaders only, with knowledge of seasonality. In you are new to these kinds of spreads, mark it down as market knowledge and come back for a look later on.
Continuous Live CattleWeekly Cont. Cattle: The shaded boxes represent the previous 4 years of price action. Observe: Price trends up into early February. Cattle broke resistance against the (dashed) downtrend line and is attempting to break above the (solid) uptrend parallel line.
A break above the solid up trend parallel will be fighting the larger structure of a long term bear. **When it makes a swing low, the reaction high has failed to take out the up trending parallel line above. After marking the swing high, price action eventually moves lower taking out its current up trending line. Can Feb or April Cattle buck the trend?
A solid move above the current parallel would target the $130 area at the next light gray uptrend parallel. A move lower targets the lowest solid uptrend parallel between 95 and 100. End of March and July will be time frames to watch for potential cycle highs or lows.
**Put/Call Spreads or 3 way spread may be ideal at this current area**
Brazilian Cattle resumes its trend upBrazilian cattle has got continuation over its main trend up for moment now its a up trend in direction or 345 prices... bad for customers in brazil that will pay higher prices over main meat!
Catlle Up trend.... I know few people here might trade cattle but in brazil its quite a nice market to pay attention as we are the top cattle market in the world.
From now its a long position.
Brazilian Cattle.... indecisionFor moment if you ride my call on catlle from april.. now its moment to take profits and wait for another decision.. for moment is out
View on Live Cattle (26/11)Likely to see price drop in this and next week
Looking for potential buying set up at the start of 2nd week of december.
remain bullish bias unless price breaks below 102.5
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. We may or We may not take the trade.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation.
I am not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activity
