Will Bitcoin do a repeat of 2019-2020?Banking Crisis and Technical Rallies
If there is one thing that is fundamentally bullish for crypto its bank failures. Crypto was built for this: banks becoming insolvent and the inability to trust the Fed or a third party to secure your wealth and value.
And we have gotten nothing short of a major rally over the past few weeks on the back of what has happened. With the Fed, Swiss, and ECB being forced to provide liquidity for failing banks, this rally in crypto could continue. Especially as a bunch of billionaires from Silicon Valley Bank need to store some of their wealth outside the banking system. Crypto is perfect for this.
From a technical perspective, we have had some key developments that line up and we can dive into some analysis to see where things may be headed.
I want to look at 2019 to early 2020 as I think this comparison is shaping up very closely.
Notice the orange triangle pattern - The last time we had this type of capitulation when Bitcoin fell to ~$3,000, it marked the bottom. At this juncture, a lot of people thought the end was nigh. We had a similar capitulation event occur which lead to the same triangle formation on the back of the failure of FTX. The capitulation event in 2019 marked the bottom. So far the failure of FTX, Celsius, 3AC, and others has marked the bottom of this cycle. The fractal is strikingly similar
2019 was followed by a massive multi-month rally which took Bitcoin back to its 50% retracement from its previous high. If we were to do something similar it would put us in the $40,000- $45,000 range or just shy of that in the 37-40k range.
Some technicals:
1. Weekly MACD is positive and sloping up.
2. Moving averages on the daily time frame are sloping positively.
3. The weekly 9 MA is crossing above the 200 MA.
4. RSI is showing strength.
Between technicals and Bank failures, we could see Bitcoin and the rest of crypto continue to run higher from here.
