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MBT1! trade ideas

$BTC Futures FractalTaking a closer look at BTC CME chart in late 2020, after a high of $14,000 Bitcoin Futures corrected and rallied back up (with a gap) to $12,000. After another 21% correction (almost closing the gap) we started to rally to all time high. Looking at the current chart today we have a very similar set up. From a major correction, and then a rally (Gap up) we have closed the gap. If the timing is exactly the same... (unlikely).., well see another rally to new all time highs. First target is still $130,000.
CME:BTC1!Long
by A7Fund
5
Bitcoin: A US Reserve CurrencyCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) On the morning of March 2nd, President Donald Trump posted a tweet to reinforce his commitment to a Crypto Strategic Reserve, including XRP, SOL and ADA. Cryptocurrency market took off immediately. Despite not being mentioned in the tweet, Bitcoin shot up from $78,400 to $83,900, and Ethereum from $2,090 to $2,240. Later in the afternoon, President Trump posted an update and clarified that BTC and ETH will be in the Reserve. “I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”, he tweeted. At the time of this writing, BTC is quoted $94,308, up 20.3% since the first tweet. ETH is trading at $2,520, up 20.6% within the day. We are in a new age of cryptocurrencies, where BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA just gained the official backing of the US Government. This day has been in the making for months. • On May 24, 2024, then presidential candidate Trump promised to launch a national crypto stockpile if he wins the election. Investors warmed to this idea and Bitcoin lifted 18% • On November 5, 2024, Trump won the US election. Market cheered for the most pro-crypto president and Bitcoin shot up 57% in a month • On January 23, 2025, President Trump signed the “Executive Order to establish United States leadership on digital financial technology.” Bitcoin went up 17% • Recent events have brought bitcoin down 28% since reaching its all-time-high of $109,241. In a matter of two tweets, the crypto market has completely turned around Bitcoin for the Long Haul A year ago, I published this market commentary, “A Bitcoin Bull Run?”, and laid out the key drivers for bitcoin’s long-term rise. Limited supply, increased demand and excessive liquidity helped bitcoin prices doubled in a year. In my opinion, these tailwinds remains intact for bitcoin in the coming months. On top of these, we now have the explicit endorsement from a sitting US president. Therefore, I stay bullish for holding bitcoin for the long haul. Trading with Micro Bitcoin Futures On “HODL with a Twist”, published on May 6, 2024, I explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). This strategy worked nicely in the past, and I favor to continue deploying it. The paragraphs below provide a brief update with new contract months and new price data. Firstly, using futures over spot bitcoin provides these compelling advantages: • Capital efficiency in using margins. A trader could invest with as little as $2,075 to take on the full exposure of $9,431 (1/10th of a bitcoin) • Futures contracts come with build-in leverage. For MBT, it is approximately 4.5 times (= 9431/2075). If bitcoin moves 10% in your favor, you could gain 45% with futures • Price protection. MBT has a daily price limit (limit-up and limit-down) at 10%. In a volatile day with big moves, the Exchange will pause trading at the prescribed limits Secondly, futures contracts have a limited lifespan that will influence the outcome of your trades and exit strategy. Micro Bitcoin futures are traded actively in the nearby March and April contracts. Liquidity in the back-month contracts has yet to pick up. Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding. Below is an illustration on how to hold a long MBT position overtime: • In March, a trader buys (going long) April contract (MBTJ5) at $94,308 • In April, the trader enters an offsetting trade, going short on MBTJ5, to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling price and purchasing price • Simultaneously, the trader would buy May MBT contract (MBTK5) and re-establish a long position in Bitcoin • In May, the trader will close out MBTK5 (going short) and buy June (MBTM5) • The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view Finally, Bitcoin prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Bitcoin with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With the leverage in futures, a sharp price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls. Trader could set up a stop-loss in the buy order, limiting the maximum loss. Hypothetically, he could set the stop-loss at $85,000 when executing long futures at $94,308. If bitcoin moves sharply down, the maximum loss will be $931 (= (94308-85000)*0.1). His margin account will be decreased to $1,144 from $2,075. To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Bitcoin CME Gap Wars continue with a Bigger New Gap- what next ? Last week we saw the Bitcoin PA Drop down and begin filling that existing CME gap, that had opened in Nov 2024 CME Gaps ALWAYS get filled I said. And they usualy do PA got down to 78600 and bounced back up. It had NOT completely filled the Gap, leaving a gap from 78600 down to 77920. This is a small gap But significant in that the BTC Bulls pushed PA up before the gap was filled....waving 2 fingers at he CME. CME Closes for the Weekend and the price at close on Friday evening was around 85345 I thought we were going to see PA turn and drop back down to complete the Fill..I even had a Spot Buy order down there.. BUT NO - The Bulls arrived again and BANG- When CME opened for the New weeks trading, Bitcoin was up at EXACTLY 95K This had created a NEW gap, with the remains of the older one just below. And so now, Whats next ? Since then, PA dropped to 91635, Filling a more recent smaller gap and has since then, pushed back up higher. When will the Bigger new Gap get filled ? We have a number of possible scenarios and I think my preferred one is that we revisit the Lower levels, Fill the Gap and at the same time, continue to cool off that Still Bearish weekly MACD., whihc, once at Neutral, will have more than enough ability to push to s decent new Cycle ATH in Q4 Another option is that BTC PA ranges high, for Longer and Cools off that Weekly MACD, till around June, Leave the gap open for a later date OR, PA Simply pushes to a New ATH now, exhausts itself and falls hard after, filling the Gap as it plunges to 65K or Lower. Take your pick The MACRO side of Xrypto now is noce but I do worry about how this cold all just make Bitcoin rise to Fast and go POP at the top We need to continue the Slow Steady rise, maintain a balance and act like Adults..Not like Teenagers with a new Bag of Sweets. Be REALLY careful righ tnow, But MAKE MONEY TOO But remain cautious. This Gap WILL GET FILLED ONE DAY
CME:BTC1!
by Orriginal
Bitcoin, Mind The Gap (85,720) The massive move initiated from Trumps tweet Sunday about the Crypto Strategic Reserve has left a massive gap on the Bitcoin Futures Chart. Gaps tend to get fill sooner rather than later, with a high 90% hit rate on gaps getting filled. We could see a pullback this week to fill the gap with another run up following back above 90k to save the weekly close ... again. We see confluence with the golden pocket (0.6128 - 0.65 Fib) here on that retracement and also the most amount of volume (VPVR) being traded there. A final test of the demand below 90k, which if shown as support, will lead us back into the range of 90k to 110k.
CME:BTC1!
by Mamocoin
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels. The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE). We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post). ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING? As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market. CME GAP Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles. To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post. The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close. NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle. 21W EMA & 20W SMA Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC. ORANGE TREND LINE Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher. * Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top. * Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s). Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
1
"Bitcoin Filled the CME Gap – What’s Next?🚨 Boom! Bitcoin just did EXACTLY what I predicted. 📌 The CME Gap at $92,695 - $93,790 is now completely filled! 📊 In My previous analysis, I highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin pushing towards this key level due to liquidity engineering. Now that the gap has been filled, the BIG question remains: ⚠️ Was this just a liquidity grab, or is Bitcoin gearing up for a massive breakout? 🔸 Scenario 1 - Bullish Continuation: If BTC holds above $94K, we could see a push towards GETTEX:98K - $102K in the coming days. Whales accumulating above this level could indicate further upside momentum. 🔹 Scenario 2 - Reversal & Liquidity Trap: If BTC fails to hold above this level and starts closing below GETTEX:92K , this could be a classic fake breakout before another drop towards FWB:88K for a deeper retest. 💰 Key Levels to Watch: 🔹 Resistance: $94K | GETTEX:98K | $102K 🔸 Support: GETTEX:92K | FWB:88K | $84K 👀 Next Move: A clear 4H or Daily close above $94K could confirm a continuation higher. A rejection and close below GETTEX:92K might indicate a potential reversal. 📌 This was exactly what I predicted in My last analysis. If you missed it, check it out here: 🔗 Previous Analysis: Bitcoin Another Drop or the Biggest Market Trap? 🔥 This is a CRITICAL moment for Bitcoin. Are we about to see a true breakout, or was this just a perfectly engineered liquidity grab? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀👇 #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #MarketManipulation #WhaleGames #Trading #LiquidityTrap #CMEGaps #CryptoBreakout #PriceAction
CME:BTC1!
by SeyedHamid822
1
Bitcoin: Another Drop or the Biggest Market Trap?🚨 Is Bitcoin’s decline a natural correction, or are we witnessing a masterfully engineered shakeout? Bitcoin currently stands at a critical crossroad, leaving both retail traders and institutional investors in a state of uncertainty. To fully understand this moment, we must look beyond charts and price action—we must uncover the true forces at play. 🔍 The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin’s Volatility From its inception, Bitcoin was seen as a decentralized revolution, but as it gained momentum, it also became a tool for financial anonymity. Over the years, untraceable payments to cartels, mercenary groups, and illicit networks forced global regulators to move from passive observation to active intervention. Institutional money didn’t just fuel Bitcoin’s growth—it forced governments to rethink their stance. The Trump administration took a radical step, considering Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States. This wasn’t a random event—it was a carefully planned maneuver. 💣 The Trump Inauguration Pump-and-Dump: Market Manipulation at Its Finest On Trump’s inauguration day, Bitcoin saw a violent pump, led initially by Binance, followed by Bybit and Coinbase, triggering an all-time high breakout. However, this wasn’t a genuine breakout. Instead, it was a classic fakeout, designed to trigger mass FOMO, liquidate short positions, and set up liquidity for institutions. 🔹 Bybit initiated large-scale sell-offs 🔹 Binance and Coinbase followed suit 🔹 Bitcoin collapsed from its peak To believe this was random is pure naïveté. Liquidity providers don’t act in isolation—they operate within a much larger framework of financial and political power. 📊 CME Futures: The Financial Gaps That Had to Be Filled If you analyze the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Futures chart, you’ll notice multiple unfilled gaps, which indicate severe financial imbalances between spot and futures traders. 🔸 The 80,705 - 77,905 gap took 9 months to fill. 🔸 A new gap between 92,695 - 93,790 has now appeared. These gaps are not accidental—they are byproducts of an engineered system designed to manipulate liquidity and correct imbalances. 📉 Bitcoin’s Support Levels & Why It Shouldn’t Drop Further 🔻 $75,000 is a crucial support level. 🔻 A temporary dip to $70,000 is possible but unlikely to hold. 🔻 A drop beyond $70,000 could lead to catastrophic financial turmoil: ⚠️ Mass liquidations worldwide ⚠️ Corporate bankruptcies ⚠️ Stock market collapses ⚠️ Institutional liquidity crises This is why Bitcoin’s freefall must be controlled, and governments, exchanges, and major players will intervene before the damage spreads too far. 🚀 The Birth of a New Altcoin Season? 🔹 Traders are exhausted. 🔹 Bitcoin’s volatility has shaken confidence. 🔹 Capital is looking for alternative growth. We may be witnessing an unprecedented event: the first altcoin season where altcoins move independently of Bitcoin’s influence. 🚀 If Bitcoin remains trapped in uncertainty, altcoins could decouple and establish their own market cycles. But beware—this could be another orchestrated setup to drain liquidity before Bitcoin’s next move. ⚠️ The Perfect Short Squeeze Setup? Markets have been flooded with short positions, driven by: 🔹 Fear & Pessimism 🔹 Institutional Manipulation 🔹 Lack of Retail Confidence But what if this hopeless sentiment is the ideal setup for a market-shaking reversal? Imagine a scenario where: 🔺 Bitcoin traps overleveraged shorts 🔺 Suddenly reverses with explosive momentum 🔺 Traders who expected further decline get liquidated We’ve seen this happen before. The question is—who will be caught off guard this time? 📢 What Do You Think? Comment Below! 💬 Is Bitcoin heading for another major dump or a massive short squeeze? 💬 Will altcoins finally move independently of Bitcoin? 💬 Are we seeing a government-controlled Bitcoin strategy unfold? 🔥 If this analysis was insightful, don’t forget to like & follow for more deep market insights! With respect, Hamid #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoMarket #Altcoins #Blockchain #CryptoNews #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #MarketAnalysis #BTCChart #CryptoSignals #BitcoinManipulation #WhaleGames #CMEGap #InstitutionalInvestors #MarketLiquidity #ShortSqueeze #Altseason
CME:BTC1!
by SeyedHamid822
Bitcoin: Short into the Real Bull Market Market sentiment has plummeted to unprecedented lows as Bitcoin approaches critical support zones around the $80K level, coinciding with the CME futures gap. While I have outlined a potential bullish scenario, I remain cognizant of the significant downside risks. A sharp decline could unfold, instilling widespread fear among market participants before the true bull market takes shape. Above, I have illustrated a bullish harmonic pattern, a structure characterized by price contraction followed by an eventual expansion. This formation suggests a retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci levels of both the prevailing uptrend and the resistance formed by the downtrend. What particularly draws my attention is the positioning of the Point of Control (POC)—the most actively traded price within the previous range. This key level represents an area where price may face rejection from the broader value zone. From a psychological standpoint, such a move would create an illusion of stability as Bitcoin retraces toward the $96K– GETTEX:98K region, enticing investors who anticipate a break above $100K and a push toward new all-time highs. However, this very zone could serve as a major liquidity exit point for larger players looking to offload positions and potentially establish short positions against the market. Should this scenario materialize, the likelihood of the harmonic pattern playing out increases, potentially leading to the loss of the value area and forcing Bitcoin to revisit previously established support, where it traded in the value area around the $60K range. This sharp decline would likely convince many that the bull market has ended, triggering an influx of short positions. However, such a setup could ultimately serve as a bear trap, culminating in a dramatic short squeeze and marking the true inception of the next bull run. A decisive reclaim above the POC and key confluence zones would significantly enhance the probability of revisiting all-time highs. Nonetheless, I will be closely monitoring the critical levels detailed in my journal for signs of a broader market reversal. Only time will tell...
CME:BTC1!Short
by afurs1
BITCOIN FILLED CME GAPToday BTC might have bounced-off a 5 months away gap. OPPORTUNITY : Ideal buy was in the now filled CME GAP. We might revisit these price, so 79100$ remain a good spot for a BUY/LONG alert. General buy zone is from 72.5k$ to 85k$ and should last until approximately mid April . TARGETS : Ideal sell would be 136425$ in late July (23/07). Probable sell zone go from 130k$ to 160k$ and should span from early June to early August . MAXIMAL $ TARGET : - There is still a chance for a powerful leg up, in the event of prices nearing 200k$ , profit will have to be taken regularly and without restraint. MINIMAL $ TARGET : - A faillure to break above last ATH, so 110k$ is definitely a partial sell price (and will react). MAXIMAL time TARGET : - All positions (including altcoins) should be closed before October 2025. Based on Chart Tools : - Fibonacci levels from Retracement and Extension - Expansion/Consolidation periods durations tendencies from this bullrun - Regression over time of said periods - Percent change of said Expansions periods Statistical Arguments : - Past Bitcoin cycles (2016 & 2021) general seasonality - Coinglass's Bull-Market-Peak-Signals had 0/30 indicators showing a top Fundamentals : - Optimistic US inflation - Peace negociations - Pro-business policies - Blockchain technology usage growth - Bitcoin & major crypto adoption in finance Bias : - Up-trend intact - No hard corrections compared to previous bullrun - I guess i could use some profit
CME:BTC1!Long
by LOKEN94
BTC Finally Up From Here? Bitcoin has faced significant headwinds recently, experiencing a nearly 30% decline from its all-time high, instilling widespread fear and uncertainty across the market. With the Fear and Greed Index plummeting to its lowest level in the past year, the key question arises: are we approaching a pivotal inflection point, or is this the beginning of the end for the current bull cycle? There are several compelling reasons to believe that the uptrend may persist from this juncture: Market Structure & Elliott Wave Analysis The prevailing market structure suggests a higher probability of a corrective phase rather than a definitive trend reversal. Historically, corrective movements tend to retrace back to their origin, implying a potential rotation toward previous highs. Furthermore, Elliott Wave theory identifies Fibonacci extension levels as key termination zones for corrections, with the most common being the 1.0x and 1.618x extensions. Notably, Bitcoin has precisely touched the 1.618 extension, reinforcing the possibility of a structural rebound. CME Gap & Liquidity Injection A critical CME gap has now been filled, which could catalyze fresh liquidity inflows from sidelined capital. This is further evidenced by the formation of a substantial buyer wick on the daily candle, suggesting renewed interest and accumulation at these levels. Anchored VWAP & Market Strength The anchored VWAP from the August range low—marking the inception of Bitcoin’s 100% upward move—appears to be in the process of reclamation. If successfully held, this could signal a significant resurgence in market strength, providing a solid foundation for further upside momentum. Should Bitcoin manage to reclaim its all-time high heading into the summer months, it could pave the way for an extended bullish continuation. However, as always, only time will reveal the ultimate trajectory.
CME:BTC1!Long
by afurs1
BTC will fill CME GAP at around 77KWe're seeing some wild swings in Bitcoin's price, and I'm calling it: this isn't just the market doing its thing. I mean, where's all the BTC on exchanges? It's like there's none left, and the prices are shooting up to levels that Wall Street boys would think twice about jumping into. This smells like big-time manipulation by the heavy hitters, like those hedge fund giants and the exchanges themselves. They've got the power to make the market dance, and with so little Bitcoin floating around, every move they make has an outsized impact. It's like they're playing with a loaded deck. I'm not saying I've got the smoking gun, but the signs are there. When you see prices that don't match the supply, you gotta wonder, right? Are we just pawns in their game, or is there something else at play? Let's keep our eyes peeled, because if this is manipulation, it's on a whole new level. What do you guys think? Am I onto something, or am I just seeing shadows? Remember, this is speculative based on what we're observing in the market, and while manipulation is a concern, it's one among many factors influencing crypto prices. Whats your thouhts?
CME:BTC1!Short
by r0b1n4t0r
1