MBT1! trade ideas
Fake out to shake out, POC testWouldn't surprise me to see this run of liquidity to gap-fill below and test the local Point of Control (POC), before rocketing up to test the VAH (value area high), also filling another gap...
If bullish momentum continues, expecting a run to fill the last local gap in the 34-35k region.
Ultimate target for the "Echo Bubble" of 23 would be around 48k..
BTC consolidation phase = channel, Symmetrical Triangle, update!Posted this couple hours ago
Going to focus on short times frames for CRYPTOCAP:BTC
IMO that is best until we get a BETTER view of what is really happening
IMO #BTC should still go higher but needs consolidation, rest
RSI is hanging in middle
#bitcoin is on a CHANNEL but it's also forming TRIANGLE pattern (these tend to be CONTINUATION patterns)
4hr shows this a lil bit better
Would be nice 2c volume coming in, not much happening on 1HR
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EDIT
See the volume atm? This is VERY important!
Holding the triangle pattern we spoke about before
Not convinced to go buy as the last time this happened #BTC had another leg down
KEEP in MIND that these are SHORT TERM charts so be careful
This is good 2c though, VERY GOOD!
BTC OutlookCMA Gap fill in the $20K area, busted inverted head and shoulders, short liquidations trigger upside into the halving.
BTCUSD PLAN Hello to all small and big traders, today I was checking all the empty spaces of CME when I noticed 3 gaps that have not been filled yet, one is in the area of 34000 to 34800, one is in the area of 21000 to 20000 and the other is in the area of 9500 to 10600. It doesn't matter if it is filled, but it must be filled. This plan is for a long-term view. Now or first, we will pay 34,000 dollars, and then the drop and the new floor, and then we will move right at the time of halving for the new ATH, or it will be filled later, whatever the case may be. be careful .
BACKTEST SELLOFF TRIGGEREDI believe the quick drop yesterday could have been a large order that was triggered by backtesting this trend line. Im bearish from here until proven otherwise.
Anomaly Shooting up +10% to liquidate. Shooting down immediately after -10%. This is a problem in the market. Or maybe we can continue the conversation? Why does this happen? Is it always a pervasive force or are there benefits to such action that are unforeseen to me? I truly would like to learn more. Because - to me - this does not represented a healthy market. It seems like a detractor from public confidence.
In Bitcoin You Trust?I keep hearing an awful lot about bitcoin is the future, that bitcoin will skyrocket to $100,000 which makes no sense because they fail to realize the amount of money that would take. I wonder where the money comes from...? In this chart, I will give my take on Bitcoin and where I see it going. If I am wrong, I gladly accept it but I highly doubt that I will be. Let's start where it begins:
Bitcoin 2017
In December 2017, Bitcoin futures were now offered and part of the market thanks to CBOE . As you can tell, in early 2018, up to Dec 2018 bitcoin wasn't following the equities market until 2019 where we see the Nasdaq rising consecutively from Feb 2019 until July 2019. In that same period we also see Bitcoin rallying. It isn't until March 2020 where we see the truth. Bitcoin crash as the same time as the markets did, and in fact it lead in terms of percentage lost, it was the worst performing asset.
Quantitative Easing
March 2020 saw the beginning of QE4, where the Fed started throwing money at everything. Hence the parabolic rise in the stock market, setting new all time highs.... during a PANDEMIC & RECESSION. Make sense? Not at all. The Fed is solely responsible for the markets rallying. Period. Ironic that at the same time the Equities market rises, Bitcoin also rallies.
Quantitative Tightening
In Nov, 2021, the Fed announced that QE had done its job (creating the biggest bubble ever) and now stated they were going to ease, and reduce their balance sheet . Well, as we saw, the Nasdaq AND Bitcoin peaked in November 2021 and started crashing significantly. Once again, Bitcoin was the leading loser and worst performing asset.
2023 Rally Explained
Now, investors are looking at Bitcoin rising from $16,000 to now $28,000 and saying this the beginning of a bull market. But, once again, with a little digging we see that stocks and bitcoin are rising because...... The Fed Balance sheet skyrocketed during the March banking crisis. Stocks were crashing but in came the Plunge Protection Team, saved the day by pumping the dying toxic stock market. The stock market is like a nice looking car, but under the hood and on the inside, it's all old, worn, broken, missing the engine, torn up and abused. The stock market does not reflect the economy, because if it did, the markets would be down 50% at least.
If you need a visual aid, search S&P500 vs Fed Balance Sheet
Conclusion and Key Take Away's
- Bitcoin follows the market, no doubt.
- Bitcoin benefitted from QE
- Bitcoin is NOT a safe haven, and in fact is -the worst asset to hold during turmoil.
- Bitcoin , like the equities market is manipulated and controlled.
So, where do I see Bitcoin going? I see it collapsing when the markets collapse. The markets can not hide the absolutely horrible economic data much longer. If this was 2008, based on this data coming out, markets would be far passed a correction. The ONLY thing holding this market up is the Fed and it'll continue to do so for a little more until it slips their control. So, if the stock market collapses and if we clearly see that Bitcoin follows the stock market to a T, than what does this mean for crypto when markets fall? It will once more collapse and be the worst performing asset when it does fall. Smart money is going into gold and silver . Everyone else believes in crypto as a safe-haven, yet clearly have not done simple due diligence to see that not only is it not a safe haven, but between commodities , stocks, and treasuries, crypto is absolute worst asset to own. The $30 trillion dollar QE charade bubble is about to explode and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it. The data is getting worse. The consumer debt is at record highs and savings are at record lows. Retail isn't coming back. Discretionary spending is down significantly. Demand has collapsed. ISM crashed. Manufacturing crashing. Housing is crashing faster and steeper than in 2008. Autos down significantly. Inventories are down to March 2020 lows. Orders are being cancelled. Layoffs are rising faster than in the last 3 years. The writing is on the wall folks, they can't hide this much longer. The greed will give way to financial pain.
Benefit from BTC crash?
Absolutely. Look into BITI and go from there ;)
Bitcoin, Fed, and EquitiesIn supplementation to my most recent chart, "In bitcoin we trust" I wanted to make my point even more clear by adding the Fed Balance Sheet.
As you can see, it has been and always was the Fed pumping every asset. March 2020, the Balance Sheet exploded higher, as did stocks and bitcoin/crypto market.
Prepare for anything because they're on to something. This just seems very odd and worrying. So much printing, so much new debt.. what happens to the USD, inflation? None of this is good. The higher markets go, the harder the crash will be.
These rallies are not based on sound healthy economy or inflation hedge or good earnings.. this is pure pump nonsense.
Bitcoin Gap Trade: $20k and then up to $35kShort-term bearish, long-term bullish.
I'm not currently trading Bitcoin and am only stacking, but I use the short-term technicals to time my buys which have been nearly every week since September 2022, and my current cost average is ~$20k.
Bitcoin price is attempting to hold above $28k after breaching but failing to hold above $30k this past week. The reversal here isn't surprising considering that price just pretty much ran from $20k to $30k unhindered so a pullback was expected at some point given the bearish sentiment that still surrounds crypto in general.
As for gap trades, Bitcoin tends to fill gaps sooner rather than later compared to other assets so the most likely path for Bitcoin going forward from here is a fill of the gap down near $20.5k in the coming weeks, price finding solid support in that range, and then a move higher to fill the gap up in the $35k range in the coming months.
Good luck out there traders.
Rising Wedge BreakoutLooking for 24-25k on this drop depending on how you want to drop your lines. 20k is on the table if we dont hold there and try to fill the gap.
BTCUSDCME GAP AROUND 28000 has been filled.
But considering the selling pressure, I don't think there will be any support from this area
BTC! CME Gap ChartChart of filled and unfilled gaps of CME BTC futures contracts
Green = Previously filled gap
Yellow = Unfilled gap
Red = Unfilled gap with large distance from current price
Double bottom on BTC CME futuresAlready swept the low on BTC futures because it doesn't include weekend volatility. Low could be in now and we could squeeze shorts all the way up to the 28k gap, or more likely we could be in an accumulation zone that will be more prolonged. Clear invalidation level if we dip below the range low, which could well happen if we get a true capitulation still.
Bitcoin, the possibilities #BTC #BTCUSDT #Bitcoin#BTC
#BTCUSDT
#Bitcoin
The Bullish & Bearish scenario is around a 10k difference to the upside & a 6k difference to the down side, remember that the market makers will ALWAYS leave at least two options on the table (someone has to loose).
The Bullish scenario would be a move to 43K (Blue B) before a pull back to 20K (Blue C) before commencing a bull run
The Bearish scenario would be a move to 34.4K (White 4) to 14K (White 5) before commencing a bull run
In both cases the bottom of the pink channel looks like it will be a catalyst for a reverse in trend, it just depends on how & when we arrive there.
The only way we will be able to tell which scenario is playing out will be if & when we close a weekly above $36150 as this will signal the invalidation of the White waves.
Time will tell but let me know your thoughts
BTCUSDT CME GAP I wanted to remind CME GAP ihvs to be careful with your transactions, it looks like a bloodbath is coming
BTC Overlay scenariosFigured out some overlays for BTC, I was actually kinda bullish on it until today when it didn't rally with the market.
Up or down, it needs a pause, Crypto has been moving in a stair step pattern, so it probably drifts sideways until the next Fed meeting. Bull and bear scenarios shown.
I'm just playing around with overlays from previous formations to get an idea of what it's gonna do. Not sure if it goes up or down, but I think it's not gonna do much for a month. No positions.
Digital Assets Outlook 2023Digital assets have had a strong early 2023
Digital asset prices, led by Bitcoin, have had a strong 2023 so far. Bitcoin is up by over 70% this year and Ether is up by over 50%1. Together, these two assets still account for over 63% of the total market cap of the digital assets space. While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is still raising interest rates, the market seems to expect that the recent bank failures (Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse) will lead to central bank easing. Lower interest rates would benefit long-maturity assets, such as digital assets. Moreover, several traders have been caught off-guard and short-sellers expecting more downside in digital assets have had to liquidate positions leading to higher prices.
We believe we could be on the cusp of the fourth major bull market in crypto, although the exact timing is uncertain. Our belief is that the next bull market will be enabled by advancements in speed and scalability of the blockchain networks, more intuitive user interfaces, and innovations in blockchain wallets, as well as developments in digital identity, which will pave the way for Web3 applications. The critical determinant, of course, will be the user applications that will take the market by storm and we will keep monitoring potential candidates on a continuous basis.
Despite dismal price action last year, digital assets are supported by a healthy and vibrant software developer community. The number of monthly active developers actually rose last year by 5%2, which is significant, and confirms our view that developers remain actively engaged in their respective blockchain ecosystems.
Layer 2 networks finally coming into their own, promising to solve the scalability issue
The main impediment of current Bitcoin and Ethereum networks has been their inability to handle a large volume of transactions. It is estimated that, without a layer 2 solution, Bitcoin can only handle approximately 7-10 transactions per second while Ethereum can only handle approximately 15-30 transactions per second. While it is on Ethereum’s road map to be able to ultimately handle 50,000-100,000 transactions per second, this is not a reality at the moment. As a contrast, Visa is said to handle at least 1,700 transactions per second although there are some estimates that Visa could handle up to 24,000 transactions per second and Visa itself is claiming this number to be as high as 65,000 transactions per second3.
One way to solve the scalability issue of blockchains is to use a layer 2 network, which is built on top of a layer 1 blockchain. Layer 2 networks move transactions off-chain, roll them up and bundle multiple transactions into a single transaction, which can then be secured on the layer 1 blockchain benefiting from underlying blockchain’s security and robustness. This bundling enables faster throughput, faster settlement, and lower prices. For Bitcoin, the most well-known layer 2 solution is the Lightning Network, while for Ethereum there are several options available, including optimistic rollups, zero-knowledge rollups (ZK rollups) and sidechains. It is also worth mentioning that the Ethereum network is expected to go through so called ‘sharding’ later this year, which is expected to split the network into separate ‘shards’ thereby increasing the capacity of the network and reducing the transaction (gas) fees in the process.
Digital USD tokens emerging as a major use case
Stablecoins, digital tokens issued on public blockchains and pegged to an underlying asset, such as a currency or a physical asset, were initially used in trading and interexchange settlement but have become increasingly popular in payments and remittances. Because stablecoins are global and accessible to anyone, they offer an attractive way to cheaply and securely transmit money around the world 24/7 and settle transactions (almost) instantaneously. The world’s largest stablecoin, Tether’s USDT, is particularly popular in Asia, while in the West Circle’s USDC is widely used. Stablecoins are designed to offer stability while an asset like Bitcoin is more volatile.
To give an idea of the magnitude of transaction volumes, last year, Visa settled HKEX:12 trillion worth of payments, mainly related to consumer spending, while stablecoins settled HKEX:8 trillion worth of on-chain transactions, higher than the $2.2 trillion settled by Mastercard or HKEX:1 trillion settled by American Express4. This year, it is possible that the combined amount of stablecoin transactions exceeds the payments settled by Visa. These stablecoin transaction volumes, of course, are not related to consumer spending but rather to payments, trading and decentralised finance, and do not take into account trading volumes on centralised exchanges.
Competition for instant payments heating up
The market for instant settlement of payments seems to be in flux at the moment. Crypto regulation in both Europe and the US are focusing on stablecoins and are expected to set stringent reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers and also forbid interest being paid to stablecoin holders. We view transparency requirements into reserve assets of stablecoin issuers important but also believe that attention should be paid into issuers’ risk management, cybersecurity, and blockchain code testing quality.
In the US, the Federal Reserve is planning to launch an instant payment system called FedNow in July 2023. The network will not be based on blockchain but will be able to settle payments in seconds and can support transactions between consumers, merchants, and banks. Some believe that the closure of Silvergate’s SEN network and Signature Bank’s SigNet network in mid-March 2023, both offering instant settlement service where clients were able to move assets between fiat currencies and crypto exchanges at any time, could have had something to do with the launch of FedNow. Around the world, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are also being actively developed. They offer a digital form of a government-issued currency that is not pegged to any physical commodity and these digital currencies will continue to be based on the fractional reserve banking system.
In Europe, the European Commission adopted a legislative proposal in late October 2022 that mandates all banks to offer instant euro payments to any individual with a bank account in the eurozone. At the moment, the EU banking sector, on average, lags behind other major international markets in instant payments, although single-country solutions have been adopted and variations between countries are large. In some European countries, instant payments cover 70% of banks but, in others, only 1% of payments are settled instantly. The European banking sector has stated that they need up to two years to make banks instant-payment ready5.
Europe has its own version of an instant settlement network. BCB Group, regulated in the UK and Switzerland, offers BLINC network that links crypto companies to the banking system and enables business accounts to trade in fiat and digital assets 24/7. The company already offers fiat-to-crypto rails in sterling, euros, Swiss francs, and yen in Europe and plans to add USD fiat-to-crypto rails by early Q2 2023. BCB’s goal is to plug the gaps left by the SEN network. Unlike SEN, BLINC is multicurrency-based and is not tied to any single credit institution. It was designed as a payment institution to provide on-ramps to banks in Europe, the UK and Switzerland. The company emphasises that its funds are always 1:1 backed and are unleveraged and un-rehyphothecated6.
Sources
1 Source: Coingecko.com
2 Source: Electric Capital, 2022 Developer Report
3 Source: Visa Fact Sheet, 2022
4 Source: CoinMetrics
5 Source: Euromoney
6 Source: BCB Group, Coindesk
2019 FRACTAL BEFORE 2024 HALVING IN PLAY2019 FRACTAL BEFORE 2024 HALVING IN PLAY???
What do you think?
1/2 Look @ $BTC & trouble at resistance, run over?Look @ CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Since post , #BTC has lost roughly 1k more points
The yellow line was expected.
Selling doesn't seem out of the ordinary & will likely provide more entry points soon UNLESS something changes.
Doesn't #bitcoin move look ORGANIZED since mid March?
#crypto
BTC FUTURES In Bitcoin futures, there were two gaps that needed to be filled on the way up at around 28,000 and 35,000. The 28,000 gap has already been filled, and now we are moving towards the next one. We are currently very close to the golden zone, which is a price range where the price may either break through or bounce off. Based on my analysis, I believe that the price will drop back down to 6,900 at the 0.236 level before the halving event.
