MBT1! trade ideas
BTC Open Long (eng)Hello Friends.
Unfortunately, the final downward exit did not wait
A big player closed his short position and managed to get a long position during the multi-month fleet.
Yesterday before the stock market closing I fixed the volume impulse, which finally indicated a trend reversal, at least the local one.
Closed my previous position from Nov. 08.11.2022 from the price 20200.
it appeared +15.87%
Opened Long from 16980
From 06.01.2023 time 20:12 (GMT)
The arrow indicates only the direction of the open trade - without the final target
Thus I got encouraging statistics
11 positive deals and 0 negative ones during the time period since 08.07.2021 up to now
That confirms correctness of analysis and approach
283.25% profit for a specified period, using leverage x1
Thank you all for attention and good luck in trading in the New Year!
Bitcoin weekly bullish RSIJust look at the weekly RSI
here it is looking very bullish and we predict a bullish move next week.
Enjoy the power of Bitcoin.
Ps paper money is trash and always will be.
#BITCOIN Looking Most Bullish in YearsIf this aint looking nice i dont know what is, RSI is printing the textbook definition of Bullish Divergence, we witnessed the longest Bearmarket since the inception of Crypto, its time to go ALL-IN again, sell your house, your car, bike, dog, bitch, and be prepared for the last crazy cycle before there is a streak of poverty for the entire economy. This is your last chance, btw Buttcoin only has a few X's as target, dont bother with that dinosaur, go to HEX.com instead. #NFA
BTC CME FUTURES 06 JAN 2022The volume on the BTC futures cart is the most predictable. The CME has a work schedule. Its very easy to identify. Look at the volume... as usual this is the most important indicator. It allows you not only to see where the big players are buying or selling but more importantly volume shows us where they AREN'T buying of selling. I sometimes refer to thiis area in the volume as "Negative space" or where there is little to no volume action.
If you are confused all you need to do is activate the session divider on your chart. This will bring up a set of vertical lines (North/south). Where this vertical line intersects with the volume is ALWAYS the lowest volume of the day.
There is obviously more to it. The best thing anyone can do is use the playback mode and backtest. The newest features on Trading view make it incredibly easy to keep track of how you are performing,
I have a VWAP on here but in all honestly the only indicator anyone needs is volume. There are some price action pattern traders that are good without it but imo opinion if they used volume it would make them even better.
Anyway for the short term lets see if it can make it through that negative space.
Bitcoin daily support is strongBitcoin broke downwards out of this daily triangle pattern but then it appears to have been a FAKEOUT.
Now the same triangle is showing an upward break out
Pointing to 18,50o and beyond.
Bitcoin H&S : Target $17,450Enjoy this 4hr chart showing H&S. Remember who your friend is - Bitcoin. And who isn't ? Well you know.
Enjoy 2023.
The "Recovery" from the Covid Crash was a hoaxAll of 2021 the talking heads were telling us about this amazing recovery. It was all from money printed out of thin air and dumped into the markets; all a lie. The inflation that this caused has crashed the markets. People are having to sell their assets to pay their bills . And rest assured, the financial elite WILL buy up those assets at rock bottom prices (compared to the highs of last year). If one is able, it's a good time to buy bitcoin if it can be held long term. Of course, this isn't financial advice. But I'm sure most would agree and that's what I intend to do. Bitcoin WILL recover. The rest of the legacy markets may or may not. It's hard to say if the economy can come back from what this administration has done.
Bitcoin, strange dumpthis is a hasty post tbh, this dump was strange, it should have gone up a little more before dumping, my target of $10k remains, probably a flash wick, be ready
Juggling BTC & elliot clowns We will never see btc lower than 30k ... Some make fun of this narrative and amuse themselves by saying told you so but let's see the truth behind linear logics and TA which did result in "we will never see btc lower than 30k"
My narrative is that The worst scenario is the most probable inside a bearish market and hundreds of kX inside a bull market, blah blah blah
"We will never see lower prices" narrative is the characteristics of the fifth wave ...
I'm taking about golden rectangle on the chart and i remember about people playing with fibs ... I don't claim that i didn't buy the top, somehow i did ... But we need to evolve
So we are in a zig zag on btc ... And we might touch the cme magnet 🧲 at 34k ...wherien the suckers will say don't miss this out since that's where they eat greedy retails, i will not buy the top again, i don't wanna be shi** left in the oceans
Anything is possible like another drop before the B wave but long term buying is not on the table and 300_1200_5000 are the areas we need to keep an eye on them, if you don't believe that then i say do not f** with long term TA
Sorry that i couldn't make this post funnier
I might be wrong cause we are humans trying to be the best
Patience is virtue of kings
$BTC @ crossroads - still weak - NO SIGNS of bottom$BTC has pros & cons
Let picture speaks for #bitcoin
Daily & weekly #BTC in the screenshot
Still Waters Run Deep - Bitcoin Set To Go Bullish?BACKGROUND
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in decline for the past year with price crashing as much as 20% on a single day in June. Still, the low set of $17,750 on 18 June (Saturday & hence unseen on CME chart) has turned out to be a resilient support level.
BITCOIN PRICES RESILIENT RELATIVE TO S&P500 (SPX) and NASDAQ-100 (NDX)
NDX and SPX with which BTC is generally correlated have both set new lows since June while BTC has been traded within the same range (of $18k - $20k). This again shows remarkable price resilience. Analysis from market experts points to significant deleveraging within the crypto industry and hence the perception that crypto prices might have bottomed out.
SHRINKING IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Thirty-day forward implied volatility is at record low. Low premiums to acquire call options to secure outsized gains from price break-out is seen on non-traditional crypto derivatives exchanges. Call-put ratio of 2.09 on Deribit points to 2.09 calls for every 1 put, underscoring the bullishness in BTC. However, call-put ratio on CME is 0.362 at the time of this writing.
BULLISH ONCHAIN SIGNALS
Turning our attention to on-chain analysis, we notice that Long Term Holders GLASSNODE:BTC_ACTIVE1Y (those who held BTC for at least 12 months) now represent nearly two-thirds of total BTC supply. This again points to further selling pressure being limited.
BULLISH TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Talking of technicals, BTC/USD is showing a falling wedge formation, suggesting the possibility of a breakout.
BTC has retested its June support at DXY local maximum. As the USD is the primary base currency against which BTC is traded, the value of the Dollar strongly impacts BTC price. The DXY has been rallying all year with an unprecedented rate hiking cycle. However, the DXY has started to show a broadening ascending wedge formation, signaling the softening of rate hiking cycle. The CME FedWatch tool currently suggests three more rate hikes are likely by 22nd March 2023. Anticipation is that each of these upcoming hikes will be incrementally lower relative to the last four outsized rate rises.
TRADE SET-UP
CME’s Bitcoin futures for December are currently discounted relative to spot at the time of this writing, offering investors an opportunity for a long position - amid a macroeconomic backdrop which poses a significant threat to risk assets such as BTC. With that backdrop, an entry around $20,770 with a stop loss at $17.7k (the June low) might provide a compelling trade set-up. Profit could be taken at previous bear market rally highs of $22.7k and $25k delivering a risk reward ratio of 1.38 and 0.63, respectively.
CASE STUDY WITH 1 LOT OF CME Micro Bitcoin Futures
One lot CME Micro Bitcoin Futures provides exposure to 0.10 BTC. CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring January 2023 requires a maintenance margin of USD 528 per lot.
Entry at $20,770 and take profit at $22,700 would result in $193 in profits with a return on capital of 36.5%. However, if the trade turns sour triggering a stop-loss at $17,700, it would lead to a loss of $307 amounting to a loss of 58%.
Investors must take note that when prices plunge sharply, stop-losses might be triggered at levels way below the set levels inflating realised losses.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk.
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Bitcoin - Buckle Up for the Downward Spiral RideCME: Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) and BTC Options ( CME:BTC1! )
On December 11th, Bitcoin is trading at $16,890, down 63% year-to-date. Current price falls below 50-day moving average (MA) of $18,300 and 200-day MA of $26,470.
Meanwhile, Open Interest of CME Bitcoin Futures (BTC) has been growing from about 8,000 lots to 14,000 in December. This strongly suggests that Bitcoin investors are bearish and increasingly use futures to hedge their investments.
Is Bitcoin a commodity, a security or a currency?
This is a $1 trillion question. Regardless of your own view, what really matters is how financial regulator in your country of residence defines it.
In the US, there is a turf war among federal regulators for oversight of the crypto market. A recent Senate bill, if becomes law, would task Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as the primary regulator for Bitcoin and Ether.
Indeed, Bitcoin shares key characteristics with other commodities. It’s homogeneous (all Bitcoins are of the same quality), fungible (can be divided up to trade), and with finite supply (21 million in all). Just like gold, it takes labor and cost to mine new Bitcoins and they can be stored for future use.
We can’t say the same for other cryptocurrencies. Those issued through an initial coin offering (ICO) resemble stock IPO, and could fall under the jurisdiction of SEC. As a stock investor, you understand that any company could go bankrupt, rendering its stocks worthless. So is the risk of any ICO.
Bitcoin is a virtual currency, even the CFTC says so on its website. It facilitates transactions across borders and can be stored as a means for wealth. However, price volatility of Bitcoins is too large to make it a functional currency, limiting its appeal to the general public.
Risks Associated with Bitcoin Investment
Let’s say we agree that Bitcoin is a commodity. We need to understand its unique risks compared with other types of financial assets.
Firstly, extremely high volatility. Below is annualized volatility of various markets. While Bitcoin promoters point to its decentralized structure as a safe investment, it is nevertheless a very risky asset as measured by the off-the-chart price volatility.
• Bitcoin: 80.6% (as of December 4th)
• S&P 500: 24.01% (as of December 9th)
• Gold: 16.45% (as of December 8th)
• Euro/USD: 24.71% (as of December 9th)
• WTI Crude Oil: 46.82% (as of December 7th)
• 10-Year Treasury Note: 6.41% (as of December 11th)
Secondly, extremely vulnerable to event risks. Bitcoin is built upon global consensus. An unexpected major event could result in a market rally if it strengthens such consensus. On the other hand, Bitcoin price could be crashed, if the consensus is weakened.
• El Salvador announces to make Bitcoin a legal tender (market rally)
• Elon Musk tweets that Tesla no longer accepts Bitcoin as payment (market crash)
• China bans cryptocurrency trading and mining (market crash)
Thirdly, regulatory risks. If you trade on an unregulated Exchange, your crypto assets do not enjoy the same legal protection as a trading account at New York Stock Exchange or Chicago Mercantile Exchange would have. The demise of No. 2 Crypto Exchange FTX serves as an example of such risks.
Finally, crypto assets are vulnerable to hacking whether you store them with an Exchange or in a digital wallet. You also run the risk of not being able to retrieve your bitcoins if you forget the private keys or misplace your password.
Bitcoin Trading Using Futures Contracts
Every trade has a Long and a Short. If you have a short-term trading horizon, you should be prepared to take either side depending on whether you are bullish or bearish.
BTC futures are good instruments to express your view with limited amount of money. CME Micro BTC (MBT) is based on 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $430 per contract, about ¼ of the full cash value.
For anyone who is a HODLer and invests in Bitcoin for the long haul, its 63% decline in a year is very hard to swallow. Hedging your position is a good way to minimize large drawdown on your portfolio. Put options on BTC futures is a vehicle to achieve just that.
In my trade idea published in June, I called out an "Unstoppable Downtrend" in Bitcoin and recommended buying CME BTC Put Options. On June 2nd, Bitcoin was $30K. On June 14th, it dropped 25% to $22K. If you bought a put option of BTCM2, you could have realized a sizable return. (Please read the original trade idea for details.)
Where will BTC go from here?
Technical indicators suggest potential breakout to the downside, as we discussed earlier.
Fundamentally, I think that Fed rate hike is the dominant price driver across global financial markets these days, stocks, bonds, FX, commodities and crypto included.
BTC price is inversely related to treasury yield. If the Fed sticks to a 75-bp hike, 10-Year Yield would rise and BTC could fall. However, if the Fed moderates to a 50-bp increase, the opposite could happen. Therefore, I would watch the FOMC decision on December 14th closely. This would guide us for longer-term market direction in 2023.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Auto Support & Resistance From Options Strike PricesPilfering the old script hoard 3 at a time:
SPY Moving Averages and Signals
Trade-Deep-OTM-Strangle-Options-with-COG-Channel-Squeeze/
Auto Support & Resistance From Options Strike Prices
BTC support on the weekly - 1st green candle buy to over 20kBTC support on the weekly - 1st green candle buy to over 20k
Bitcoin - Pain is comingTA:
1. Monthly closed below the trendline (constructed using closing prices).
2. Monthly RSI momentum is down.
3. TD D-Wave 4 suggests that a Wave 4 may be on the way (possibly a close below 30k).
4. TD Sequential (the green/red dots) broke the bull sequence.
FA:
Basically, the FED is tappering and likely going to raise intrest rates that will crash stocks and crypto.
Bitcoin Will Hit 100k Bitcoin MARKET UPDATE
Bitcoin support levels - 17000$ and 16500$ strong Support
Bitcoin resistance - 17500$ and 18000$ strong resistance
———————————————————————
Analysis -
BTC Support is at 17000$ and 16500$
Resistance is at 17500$ and 18000$
Trade carefully and manage your risk according to mentioned support and resistance levels.
Looking at 1 hour timeframe, currently Volume is slightly decreased Currently BTC RSI is at 67.95 BTC dominance is at 40.65 and Total Crypto Marketcap is at 858.3Billion
CMEs suggesting Bitcoin bottom is in?- quite a powerful setup on the weekly: consecutive rising wicks imply rising demand and rising demand implies there are no willing sellers left, at least at this price point
- bottom confirmed only if 17.8k is reclaimed on at least a daily closing basis
- with the CPI & FOMC coming in on the 13th & 15th of December, it is likely next week´s price action will determine whether BTC puts in a bottom here or, in fact, heads lower
20 reason for sell BTC 🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️
1 ✨Eagle eye: Near to bottom, last impulse move is ready
2 📆Monthly: extreme support level is coming from 13500 to 12000. Overall area trend is bearish
3 📅Weekly: bear
4 🕛Daily: Rounding Pattern /need to correct Structure Imbalances level
😇7 Dimension analysis
🟢 analysis time frame: Daily
5: 1 Price Structure: Bear
6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: resistance at mid-band
7: 3 Volume: low volume at correction
8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: sideways between 40 to 60
9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: resistance at mid-band or 20 moving average
10: 6 Strength ADX: bearish farming a retracement curve bears are strong
11: 7 Sentiment ROC:
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
12: Entry TF Structure: bullish till level
13: entry move: we will enter at a bearish move
14: Support resistance base: daily resistance
15: FIB: waiting for a trigger
☑️ final comments: wait till full correction
16: 💡decision: sell at resistance
17: 🚀Entry: 17900
18: ✋Stop losel:18750
19: 🎯Take profit: 13500
20: 😊Risk to reward Ratio: 1:8
🕛 Excepted Duration:30 days
BITCOIN my personal analysis from today bitcoin will take a beautiful journey to 20000$ it's in a bullish trend
What are the odds the EXACT #BTC price zone we gave to members mThought exercise:
What are the odds the EXACT #BTC price zone we gave to members months in advance was precisely met during the #FTX crash?
Why hasn’t price crashed lower? Who’s holding it up? Why are they holding it up?
Why are they making you exit all exchanges at this very moment?
Why has the FTX ‘hacker’ just converted $50M of #DAI into #ETH , making them the 36th largest holder of ETH?
Why is SBF still walking free?
The upcoming monthly candle closure will paint the bigger picture of what’s next.
Eradicate emotions and fear from the equation and think rationally. This situation is more than SUS to say the least.
Be safe out there Innovators.
#crypto #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #ripple #xrp #ethereum #sbf #alameda #cryptocrash #bitcoincrash #cryptochart #technicalanalysis #cryptonews #cryptotips
