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Pork Cutout Futures

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PRK1! trade ideas

Hogs: Dealing with a logarithmic vs. arithmetic discrepancy My long trade is the assumption that the breakdown on the log chart is a false breakout. I trade based on LOG almost entirely, but there is a mixed bag of data here that leads me to believe it is worth considering both metrics (log vs arithmetic). Many traders dislike trend lines - this is just one of those reasons among many. The way I deal with these situations is to analyze them horizontally and see which levels are violated from there. From the horizontal perspective price is at an attractive symmetrical level as shown in purple. I am a cautious buyer here. My stop is relatively wide because $5.4 per pound ($54 per 100 weight) would still register as a buy.
CME:HE1!
by Lanmar
Lean Hogs - After every rain the sun returns...Instead of looking the curve of the price for lean hogs in the short term, which shows a most obvious down since July 14, I noticed that in the long term this market is in a Bull-Trend from 1999. The consumption of the porcine meats has constantly increased in the last 10-15 years, favoring also a grow of the US meats production, that has reached industrial levels. In the short term the market’s still reacting to a negative data series. After the containment of the PED virus that has carried to the exorbitant prices in July, the demand has clearly diminished and at the same time the production increased. By now the market has reached the lowest level since more than 5 years and it does not seem to want to change direction. Last week the USDA has recorded an increase of the +6,2% slaughterings to 2.26 million heads, an ulterior negative factor for the prices. The wholesale domestic demand of porcine meats has literally collapsed and reached the lowest level since 2010. Foreign demand has weakened as well: between January and November the exports shrunk by -1,7% to 4.46 billion pounds. Short term the trend’s unquestionable down and can carry us straight until 40 cents/lb. But, analyzing the historical trend from 1999, the lean hogs futures are exactly on the support line, that gives us a purchase signal. Like in 1998, 2002 and 2009 the market could suddenly change direction, also in total absence of positive fundamentals. If my supposition’s exact, the hours of the reduction are counted… “after every rain the sun returns…” More Commodity Reports on: www.swisscommodity.com
CME:HE1!Long
by swisscommodity.com
Short Hog Spread entered 1-22-15. $480 profit, $990 margin. What an extremely sharp move after a crossover deep below overbought range, right before a huge day on 1-30-15. I wish I could say that I rode this all the way up to it's top but I had a nice little profit at 10.875 and exited when it leveled off after it's strong open just over 11.000. Looking at it now, a trailing stop using the last 14 days Average True Range, which was .6220, I would've given it room to do it's thing and captured it's peak right at close, but that's $250 worth of wiggle room, and it could've gone against me too. For those of you tracking me, this was the recommendation I emailed out on 1-22-15. Trade 4212, 15/15 years profitable, $681 avg profit, which we caught 70.4%. But this is a spread that's been profitable historically for the next 17 days, until 2-19. So I'll be looking for a dip to do it again. Will you be with me?
CME:HEM2015Long
by Trendingup101