AMP Futures - Enhance line charts with gradient customization.In this idea we will demonstrate how to apply the new Gradient line chart customization feature.
ESH2014 trade ideas
Potential ESH idea short termSome handy work, albeit too much at times...? Seems the fib., is somewhat accurate. Personally like to keep the technicals to a minimum, after all, so much is news-driven. The arrows are just reminders of trades that could've/could be taken with, simple Ma's and channel trading focusing on key S&R zones. IMHO for now seems the Bulls are running the show, coming off an impressive year for the S&P.
The consensus seems to be plus 700 points for the S&P in 2025. I'm staying long for a move above ATH. Any thoughts or indicators that bode to current charting, and supporting, be humbly appreciated.
Best to all in 2025!
A Secular Bull Market Will Face Strong HeadwindsCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! )
The Year of the Dragon is quickly approaching the end. If you invested in U.S. stocks, the chances are you have a pretty good year so far. Let’s review how major U.S. stock market indices performed (data as of December 30th):
• The blue-chip Dow Jones 30 trading at 42,992 Midday today, up 12.8% in 2024. This is a back-to-back gain after a 13.7% annual return in 2023. This year, the Dow performed better than its 5-year average of 8.5%.
• The broad market index S&P 500 quoted at 5,899, up 23.7% this year, ahead of its 5-year average of 14.5% but below the 2023 gain of 24.2%.
• The Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at 19,453, up 29.6% year-to-date, which is below its 2023 gain of 43.4%, but above its 5-year average of 17.1%.
• The small-cap Russell settled at 2,212, up 9.1% YTD, below last year’s 15.1%, but above the 5-year CAGR of 6.1%.
U.S. stocks grew less spectacularly comparing to 2023, however, they still outperformed its global peers, from developed countries to emerging markets alike:
• The Nikkei 225 (Japan) gained 21.1% in 2024. However, this remarkable performance is dented when considering the 11% Yen depreciation against the dollar this year.
• The SSE (China) gained 14.8%, above its 5-year aggregate of 13.2%. Depending on when you entered the Chinese stock market, your return could vary significantly.
• The FTSE 100 and the Stoxx 50 indices were up 5.4% and 8.6% YTD, respectively. The stock performance in Europe lags the U.S. in 1-year, 3-year and 5-year terms.
• The Nifty (India) gained 9.9% this year and 68.3% total in five years. This showcases India as a growing world economy in the 21st century.
• The Ibovespa (Brazil) lost 9.4% in 2024 and gained only 3.2% over five years.
The 2025 Outlook
The new Trump administration will assume power on January 20th, and the Year of the Serpent will start on January 29th (the Lunar New Year). Judging from campaign promises and new Cabinet nominations, investors expect dramatic policy changes in the coming months and years. Heightened uncertainties will result in higher stock volatility, which increases the overall risk of investing.
With a lot still up in the air, even the Federal Reserve does not factor in policy changes in their economic forecast. Today, I will attempt a discussion on the stock market valuation through the lens of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF).
In January, during The Leap — Paper Trading Competition by TradingView, I will publish a deep-dive analysis on the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, on how they will fare under the new administration policies, and how they will impact the S&P 500 index together.
To refresh our financial knowledge, the DCF model says that an asset’s value is the present value of its expected future cash flows.
In the numerator, Cash Flow is a function of revenue minus cost. In the denominator, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is applied to discount the cash flows.
Potential policy impacts on business growth (corporate revenue and profitability):
• Tailwind: The “America First” policy is bullish on U.S. businesses. It will help bring manufacturing back onshore, create new jobs and support consumer spending.
• Tailwind: Lowering corporate income tax from 21% to 15% will improve profitability.
• Headwind: Higher tariffs will raise retail prices as well as input costs for manufacturing. Higher prices will reduce sales volume for most businesses.
• Headwind: Slashing federal spending will reduce sales revenue from industries relying on government spending, including healthcare, retirement and defense spending.
Potential policy impacts on borrowing costs:
• Headwind: The recent rebound in inflation has caused the Fed to hold back on future rate cuts. Fewer cuts mean higher expected future interest rates. This is the main reason behind the 700-point plunge in the Nasdaq following the December FOMC.
• Headwind: Higher tariffs will fuel inflation. Learning from the past, the magnitude of tariffs could be large, making it impossible to find alternative products without higher costs. This will further reduce the Fed’s appetite to lower interest rates.
Taking as a whole, it is my opinion that U.S. stocks will face more headwinds than tailwinds in 2025. The structural changes in how to run the government more efficiently will be positive over the long run, but they will cause pain if you are caught in the middle. Overall, I would adopt a more defensive strategy when trading U.S. stocks.
Trade Setup with Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
With heightened uncertainties, I would prefer shorter-term trading strategies based on incoming information and avoid making longer-term directional bets.
We could explore setting up a trade one week ahead of a “Big Report Date”, including the monthly CPI and nonfarm payroll reports and the FOMC meetings eight times a year. With higher volatility, investors tend to overreact to these big data. This makes short-term outsized gains more likely when you are proven correct in your view, by tapping into the leveraged investment instruments like futures.
Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures (MES) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s liquid benchmark E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts. They are designed to manage exposure to the 500 U.S. large-cap stocks tracked by the S&P 500 Index, widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. stock market. The Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures contract is $5 x the S&P 500 Index and has a minimum tick of 0.25 index points.
With Monday quote of 5,954, each March contract (MESH5) has a notional value of $29,770. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,522.
Hypothetically, if a trader wants to trade the January 3rd, 2025 Nonfarm Payroll report, he could long or short the MES contract on Monday, December 30th, 2024.
Generally speaking, solid job growth tends to point to the economy overheating. This would raise the Fed’s motivation to keep interest rates high. On the contrary, higher unemployment may prompt the Fed to lower interest rates to help out.
Theoretically, if a trader wants to trade the January 15th, 2025 CPI report, he could long or short the MES contract on or around January 8th, 2025.
Typically, lower inflation supports the Fed to bring rates down to a long-term normal level, while persistent high inflation would force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
Referring back to the DCF model, higher interest rates would reduce the present value of asset price, while lower rates would raise the price.
A follow-up on the MES is scheduled to publish on January 20th, 2025, at the start of the LEAP contest. With the “Magnificent Seven” accounting for 30% of S&P 500 valuation, I would apply a collective trend of these stocks to construct a trading strategy.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Possible cluster for Short on SP500An area I am closely monitoring lies between 6478 and 6516, particularly if the current high of 6152.75 (marked on December 16) is breached.
Analyzing the swing starting from the low of 3502 in October 2022, the major tops have followed a distinctive pattern in percentage terms:
3/40
5/40
8/40
13/40
21/40
The pattern suggests that each subsequent high is obtained by summing the numerators of the previous upward moves (e.g., 3 + 5 = 8, 8 + 5 = 13, and so on) while the denominator remains fixed at 40. Following this logic, the next high should be 34/40 (21 + 13).
I am confident in the reliability of this pattern because when I sum the numerators (21 + 34) and the denominators (40 + 40), the resulting level (55/80) aligns with a minor high. Similarly, by summing 55/80 and 21/40, using the same logic, I arrive at 76/120, which corresponded to a very significant high in July 2024.
While these levels may not be perfectly precise, they represent key areas of interest that warrant close attention.
If you are interested in this type of analysis, particularly when integrated with GANN angles, feel free to contact me privately at this email: drake36@inwind.it.
Bollinger Bars: A New collaboration with John BollingerIn this idea we will demonstrate how to apply the new Bollinger bars indicator.
The Trump Pump and DumpMarkets across several asset classes have seen a large move to the upside, following the confirmation of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. We have seen a massive volume injection sending stocks soaring within the 45 days following, with many companies gaining 50% and more on average in a short period of time.
At the moment, we have been trading in largely oversold territories, while declining in overall volume. Additionally, the notorious Santa clause rally was cut short, as market participants were hoping for a rally into the end of the year, which unfortunately ended with a sell off after the federal reserve rate cut in mid December.
Several stats do point to a negative quarter when we do not see a strong end to the previous year.
Although market crashes are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, often unpredictable and interdependent. Here are some plausible reasons why a market pullback could occur in January 2025:
Economic Data Disappointments: Unexpectedly high inflation, slowing economic growth, or poor employment reports could signal an economic downturn.
Federal Reserve Policy: A sudden or unexpected interest rate hike, or minimal rate cuts to stimulate the economy by the Federal Reserve might spook investors, leading to a sell-off.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of conflicts or political instability in key regions could disrupt global supply chains or create uncertainty in markets.
Corporate Earnings Misses: Weak earnings reports from major corporations, especially tech giants, could shake investor confidence.
Debt Concerns: A significant default, either by a major corporation or a government, could create ripple effects across global markets.
Tech Sector Weakness: Overvalued tech companies could face corrections, dragging down indices where they hold significant weight.
Systemic Financial Risks: A failure of a major financial institution could undermine trust in the financial system.
End of Year Tax Selling or Portfolio Rebalancing: Excessive tax-loss harvesting or portfolio adjustments in late 2024 could lead to low liquidity and amplified volatility in January.
Global Health Crisis: Renewed concerns about pandemics or other health emergencies might impact investor sentiment and economic activity.
All in all, to visualize strength in the market I would like to see the SP500 trade above the 600 level on the SPY , or 6000 on Futures.
Until then, the risk of downside does seem very real to move into the gap formed by the market just below 5700 on the ES futures, which could be a critical turning point in the market.
Only time will tell..
ES - bearish setup The overnight push up was shaped as abearish ascending flag
Watch the 50% retracement of the Monday decline = 6,036.25
Remember, 6,032.25 is the Weekly resistance
Bears have a setup to drive ES down to 5,987 with possible extension down to 5,972
I would not be surprised to see first a fake breakout of that flag tagging 6,036, the 50% retracement then brutal bearish reversal followed by a break under the lower blue trend line
A failed breakout is the best trigger / catalyst of a bearish leg to a lower low
The key level of support for this morning is 6,007
ES Futures Trade Idea- NFP Week
Big Picture ES Futures:
ES Futures are trading above yearly and monthly open at 5,949.25.
On the weekly time-frame, we see the inside week on December 23, 2024. This was broken to the downside last week, and it closed back in prior week’s range. However, it is still inside of the FOMC December 2024 week.
Sellers have failed to push lower and buyers have been stepping in around 5,875 and 5,850 levels. Looking at Volume Profile since 2024, we note that price is staying above Composite Value Area High. Acceptance of higher prices can be noted at yearly open level where high volume node (HVN) is visible and 6,150 level where another high volume node (HVN) is visible.
All time highs are not far off. This week features a busy calendar with major events, including the NFP jobs report and a shortened trading day on January 9th in honor of President Carter.
Key Levels:
Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25
CVAH: 5,854.25
Neutral Zone: 6,035 - 6,050
Key Support 1: 5,854.25 - 5,864.25
Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115
Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155
All time highs: 6,184.50
Scenario 1: New All Time Highs
ES consolidates above neutral to test R1. Break above R1, will open a path towards testing All time highs this month.
Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback
Any push from sellers that takes prices below CVAH/Key Support 1 will create further downside pressure to test 5,800 and 5,750 bull supports.
ES/SPX Morning UpdateYesterday’s target was around 6070, originating from Thursday evening’s big failed breakdown at 5918 in ES. We hit that level and sold off. Around 4pm yesterday, ES formed another mini-failed breakdown at 6016, up about 10 points so far.
As of now:
• 6016 is weak support.
• Holding above keeps 6043-46, 6066, and 6087 in play.
• If 6016 fails, look for a selloff toward 5997.
Inside day with the bullish biasThe expectation for the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract for Friday is a session that trade inside the Thursdays range with a positive close.
Follow-through is expectedFollow through to the upside in the S&P 500 is expected for Monday. This will also give us a clue whether the buying action we saw on Friday was profit taking by sellers or the market getting low enough to find buyers entering the S&P 500.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.05 - 1.10.25Last Week :
Sunday Globex opened inside VAH of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range after a Friday failure over upper Edge. Failures over/under HTF Edges usually provide good reaction back to previous Value and Edges which is what we got to start the week as we got a move from VAH to VAL and pushed out to tag lower Edge but the whole move pretty much happened during pre market hours so when we opened up we didn't get continuation, instead we got balancing/covering with weakness since we had supply that was coming out from above, we balanced most of the week between the lower Edge and Value of the range until we built up enough supply to flush it through the Edge, the sell through was strong but we only had enough supply to tag lower VAH where buying came in to push us back inside the Edge. Since it was end of the week we expected more covering to be done, since the Edge held pre market without any more size selling that brought in more covering and momentum buying to push back into our current HTF Ranges Value to close the week.
This Week:
Last weeks close may seem strong but we have to keep in mind that currently our structure is going through a change on higher time frames, for now Daily is slowly transitioning into a possible longer correction after failing and building supply over the Daily Edge which was 640s - 70s area ( Remember Failures over Edges bring us back to Value AND could target previous Edges, since its daily it can take time to get there but Daily VAL is 846 - 28 and Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24)
We are holding under Smaller and Bigger MAs and they are getting closer for a cross which will be signaling a correction lower, seems like this time around we are in for a longer/slower correction that can take time to play out and time to end. Last few weeks with failures over the Daily Edge we have been getting moves back to Daily Value and going back and forth between it's VAH and Mean areas with dips under the Mean that were bought.
Daily VAH is around 987 - 67 Area and going into this week if we can't show stability over it by holding over/between 5993 - 6007 areas and get tests at/over above VAH then we would look for price to return under the VAH back inside 973 - 932 Intraday Range and possibly start holding under Daily VAH.
Lower Edge 993 - 913 may provide enough support for us to continue balancing over it but we have to keep in mind that holding under current HTF Ranges VAL and building more supply at/over the Edge can bring in more weakness and if we get through Intraday area of 932 - 27 with more supply above that can give us sells towards lower VAH again and possibly this time around we can try to get inside lower Value again, we have swing stops to watch out for under 850s which if taken could provide more selling towards lower VAL and possibly moves out of it IF we will have enough supply.
We do have that area of 800 - 750 and next Edge below us which was our distribution balance for some time at one point, so we have to watch out what we do that as we may hold above it or price may want to try and get inside it again as that is an area where it found balance before. Of course all of this we have to watch area by area for continuation as we may keep getting buying at and under current Edge but things are set up for these moves if we want to go at least for lower Value but we MUST take out key areas for any continuation as price may find balance around current Value and stay in this range if we are not ready to move yet.
For price to remain stable we would need to be able to hold inside current Value without getting back under VAL that could keep us stable enough to balance inside the Value in current intraday range of 6018 - 78 which so far we haven't showed acceptance in, and for any strength beyond that we would need a strong push over above VAH and hold over it to start building new cost basis, even if we get moves to or over current VAH it's a place to be careful as we can keep seeing sells from there back inside Value.
ES morning update Jan 8thYesterday, after a pop to the 6045 target, 6004 emerged as the critical bull/bear battle line. Once it broke, a 70-point selloff followed—bears control while it stays below.
As of now:
• 5928 is support.
• 5935 must recover quickly for a push to 5965, then 5982.
• If 5928 fails, expect a selloff toward 5918, then 5900.
Inside day for TuesdayBased on the price action that we've seen in the S&P 500, the expectation is for Tuesday to trade within Monday's range.
ES Morning UpdateThanks to a textbook failed breakdown, year 2025 has kicked off in the Green. Mentioned yesterday, a failed break of last week’s 5917 lows triggered will be a good entry... and we’re now up 66 points.
As of now: Protect gains and let the runner ride.
• Supports: 5978 and 5950 to keep 5996, 6004+ in play
• If price dips below 5950, watch for further downside.
The reaction to the Supply Zone is the keyOn this chart, you can see that the topping signal and the formation of a fresh Supply Zone (highlighted in red) initially resulted in only a temporary shallow pullback. However, this pullback did not indicate a reversal of the uptrend. Instead, the market quickly resumed its upward momentum, as evidenced by the appearance of another "Buy re-test" signal shortly after.
This is a great example of how a topping signal—which might typically indicate potential exhaustion—can sometimes act as merely a pause in a strong uptrending market, rather than leading to a significant reversal. The trend continued higher as buyers re-established control, with subsequent key supports holding firmly to reinforce bullish strength.
Key takeaway: Topping signals and Supply Zones should be evaluated within the broader context of the market's trend. In this case, the bulls demonstrated sustained dominance despite the brief pause, confirming the uptrend's resilience.
Market Open Update: ES Buy Zone Here? APEX Trade of the DayHere's our APEX Trade of the Day!
The ES provided us with a healthy pullback providing a re-buy zone around the $5975 - $5982. We can use this as an overall market gauge to see some pushes higher in our trades that we have shared!
If you have seen them yet, be sure to follow for more as we can analyze the Market and finding what's available as to get positions in as we move forward into 2025!
Connect with us to stay tuned for more at @MyMIWallet #MyMIWallet
How invalidation of a short setup becomes a long setupExplanation of the Trading Setup Based on the Chart:
"Short Re-test" Signal Creates Two Scenarios:
Plan A: When a "Short re-test" signal appears, it indicates potential resistance and a possible continuation of the downward move. You can short with the expectation that sellers will dominate and push the price lower.
Plan B: Alternatively, you prepare for a breakout, where price moves above the resistance formed by the "Short re-test" signal. This indicates a potential trend reversal or continuation of bullish momentum.
In this case, Plan B was triggered, leading to a textbook breakout above the resistance zone.
Breakout Confirmation and Retest Setup:
After the breakout, the price moved higher and provided a "Buy re-test" signal. This is a classic example of a breakout retest pattern, where the price pulls back to test the broken resistance, which now acts as support, before continuing upward.
Multiple "Buy Re-test" Signals Strengthen the Trend:
Following the initial breakout and retest, the chart shows multiple green "Buy re-test" signals along the way. Each signal marks a new key support level, confirming bullish control and the reliability of the uptrend.
Notice how each of the three key supports held, demonstrating strong demand at these levels and affirming the strength of the bulls.
Key Takeaways:
The initial "Short re-test" signal gave traders the opportunity to anticipate both a short continuation or a bullish breakout.
Once the breakout occurred, it was followed by a strong series of retests, giving traders multiple low-risk entry points to go long.
Holding key support levels after each "Buy re-test" signal validated the bullish momentum, creating high-confidence long setups as the trend progressed.
This setup exemplifies how combining breakout strategies with retest confirmations can lead to profitable trades while maintaining manageable risk.
Contact me to get a trial of that Impulse Master indicator
S&P 500 struggles at the 1/4 Warning LineLet's not make trading harder than it is.
All we can do is project - or read the Coffee ground.
I'll prefer to use my projections with the Medianlines, using the Fork as my main tool.
The nice part with this is, that I can relay on a proven framework with rules.
Adding some risk & money management to it and the soup is ready to enjoy.
So, I follow the same process with the ES.
I see that price got rejected at the 1/4 line of the WL (Warning Line), and that price missed it to reach the WL1, which is a HAGOPIAN. That makes me lean on the rule, that price will go farther in the opposite direction than from where price came from (U-MLH).
I outlined the scenarios with the arrows what to expect in the next weeks.
Personally I'm overall very, very bearish, and I see the move to the Centerline coming. But this is just my opinion.
Weekly Trading Plan: ES Futures 1/6/2025Market Context
The ES Futures market is currently balancing, with a defined pivot point at 5964. This plan focuses on trading around the pivot while targeting key upside and downside levels. We’ll also prepare for potential failure scenarios where the market tests beyond key levels but fails to sustain momentum.
Key Levels
Pivot (Midpoint): 5964
Upside Targets:
6056
6107
6146
Downside Targets:
5875
5819
5785
🧑💼 Strategy Overview
Objective: Trade within the balancing market, utilizing the pivot (5964) as a directional bias. Prepare for possible breakout failures near key levels.
Risk Management: Place stops just outside extreme levels to mitigate breakout traps.
Execution Plan: Execute trades systematically based on price action confirmation near pivot and target levels.
Trade Execution Plan
Pivot Zone: 5964
If price holds above 5964: Look for long opportunities targeting upside levels.
If price breaks and holds below 5964: Look for short opportunities targeting downside levels.
Upside Trade Setup:
Entry: Enter long positions near 5964 on confirmation of support (e.g., bullish candlesticks or strong buying momentum).
Targets:
6056
6107
6146
Downside Trade Setup:
Entry: Enter short positions near 5964 on confirmation of resistance (e.g., bearish candlesticks or strong selling momentum).
Targets:
5875
5819
5785
⚡ Failure Scenarios
Looking Above 6146 and Failing:
Scenario: The market breaches 6146, signaling a breakout, but quickly reverses back below.
Trade Opportunity: Short the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candles, increasing sell volume).
Targets:
6107 → 6056 → Pivot (5964)
Stop Loss: Place stops just above 6146 to avoid prolonged breakout risk.
Looking Below 5785 and Failing:
Scenario: The market breaches 5785, signaling a downside breakout, but quickly reverses back above.
Trade Opportunity: Long the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candles, increasing buy volume).
Targets:
5819 → 5875 → Pivot (5964)
Stop Loss: Place stops just below 5785 to avoid prolonged breakout risk.
Fake Breakout from Pivot (5964):
Scenario: The market shows a breakout from 5964 but fails to sustain momentum and reverses.
Trade Opportunity: Trade in the direction of the failed breakout, targeting the opposite side of the range.
Stop Loss: Place stops just outside the failed breakout level.
💡 Risk Management
Position Sizing: Risk no more than 1-2% of your account balance per trade. Tighten stops to minimize loss in failure scenarios.
Break-Even Adjustments: Move stops to break-even once the first target is achieved.
📈 Trade Monitoring
Order Flow Analysis: Monitor volume and order flow near key levels for signs of breakout or failure.
Market Context Update: Adapt the plan if the market establishes a new range or breaks out of balance.
💰 Exit Plan
Take profits incrementally at each target.
Exit immediately if the market signals sustained breakout momentum beyond extreme levels.
🔔 Stay disciplined and adapt to price action!
#ESFutures #WeeklyPlan #BalanceZone #RiskManagement
Not looking for dramaNot looking for drama in the S&P 500 for Wednesday. The expectation is a low volatility day.
Sellers continue to be presentSellers continue to be present in the S&P 500 demonstrated by a week or close on Tuesday. However, we are approaching levels that would be logical to see a buyer bounce. So, be cautious on the short side of this market.
