ES 3hr UpdateNo idea what this market is doing, it wants the gap fill but can't figure out a way to get there, lol. It did fill the gap up from last night though.
Indicators are neutral, Powell speaks Wed, ECB meeting premarket Thu so I dumped my gold premarket today. Basically a wash trade, I wish I had figured out what was going on sooner. If ECB cuts rates, you'll see the EUro drop, which could cause a drop in gold in US dollars. Also, Euro gapped up last night which scared me, because that gap also needs to fill.
All cash, can't keep up with the news while I'm working. I saw automakers got an exemption though, lol.
We'll see a gap up Thu if ECB cuts rates, so staying cash, not shorting anything. I gotta fly out to WA to get my house ready for sale next week, might just take a break unless I see something.
WIth Trump in office, teh market is bound to go oversold again, might just wait until I sell my house before resuming trading. We'll see.
ESM2026 trade ideas
ES UpdateTrump is obviously gaming the market, so there's really no point in even looking at charts or indicators, lol. It's hard to take him seriously now.
The gap will fill, maybe as soon as tomorrow morning. Then we get another huge pump sometime within the next week when he repeals the China tariffs and sets then to 10% or something.
Just hold your favorite stock and wait it out. I bet he exempts AAPL, auto parts, and whatever else from the China tariffs. GM and even PDD went up today in anticipation.
I had a few GM puts, saw the jump, tried to climb on as fast as possible. I prioritized my retirement account ahead of my options play, but I made a little money, hopefully more the next few days, lol.
Expecting a melt up, then a jump when he caves in to China, no shorting anything for the next week until everything stabilizes. NVDA and TSLA still have other issues aside from tariffs, so those will be targets. Gotta let the short squeeze complete first, I have a 3 day rule. Wait 3 days, lol.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures – Bearish Setup Ahead?Price recently tapped into a key resistance zone where an imbalance was filled by a wick, showing signs of potential exhaustion. We could see a liquidity grab above before a significant move down toward the 5,150 level. Watch for a reaction in the highlighted resistance area – this could be the beginning of a bearish reversal. Major support sits lower, where a larger move might find footing.
🔹 Resistance tested
🔹 Imbalance filled
🔹 Bearish reaction anticipated
🔹 Targeting the 5,150 zone
Let me know your thoughts – do you see the same setup?
S&P 500 and Bitcoin are bearish. Big dump incoming.We bounced back thanks to Trump's bullish announcements but we're right back up at major resistance and we're moving sideways. With major resistance, you want to see price cut straight through like a laser. You don't want to see price hesitating. A bearish geometric pattern leading up to resistance almost always rejects and retests the lows.
SPY Futures April 2025Trump imposes new tariffs on imports from China, investors panic, and the market chops. A good level to look at on SPY Futures for the next couple weeks is 5528.00. I believe a break upwards can give bullish investors some confidence , while a rejection could bring even more downside. If we break upwards, possibly revisiting 5840.00, we're going to have to see if we can break that level and get back to the all time high. If we reject and price falls, the level to look at is 4833.00. A break of that support could mean a lot more downside in the coming months. But we're going to have to be patient allow Trump vs China to unfold.
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave Bearish BreakdownThis S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES) daily chart highlights a potential bearish Elliott Wave structure following rejection from a key resistance zone.
- The market encountered strong resistance near the 5,600 level, leading to a sharp decline.
- A five-wave impulsive bearish structure appears to be forming, with Waves (1) and (2) already completed.
- If this pattern continues, Waves (3), (4), and (5) could drive prices lower, targeting key support levels in the coming weeks.
Traders should watch for confirmation of Wave (3) acceleration, as it is typically the strongest wave in an impulse. A break below recent lows could confirm further downside, while a strong bounce from lower levels may indicate a correction or trend reversal.
Risk management remains crucial, as volatility can increase during corrective and impulsive waves. Keep an eye on macroeconomic factors and technical confluences for additional confirmation.
ES 3hr UpdateRSI hit overbought so we got a dip. We may get another dip when MFI gets overbought today, or just a bigger dip if it hits overbought premarket. Will we get a melt up instead? I dunno.
Keep in mind that China still has tariffs, but also keep in mind he's going to do exemptions. So that rules out shorting AAPL or any sector like auto.
We will get another huge pop when he pauses China tariffs eventually. Also, at this point the futures gap fill is inevitable.
Also, companies like NVDA and TSLA had issues even without the tariffs, so there's that as well. They probably overshot the target because of teh short squeeze.
I've got a PCRA trade that I posted yesterday. Other than that, I think I will just go back to playing the 3hr indicator, and buy when RSI or MFI hit oversold. Not gonna short anything until next week. Looks like GM is gonna lose half the gain from yesterday because they use Chinese parts, but Trump also said he'll do exemptions so not gonna play it. Also, EVERYTHING GOES UP in a major short squeeze, even garbage like FCEL. When he makes a China deal, you'll be hosed if you're short. PDD went up yesterday and premarket even though Trump hit China with 125%.
I can't predict what Trump will do with China, so just pay attention to the news.
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5075.00.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
ES Premarket Update3hr MFI is headed quickly to oversold, and the dollar index is bouncing back a little. FUtures are also green.
I expect the market to bounce up when MFI gets oversold, so possibly a gap up which sells off then market goes back up?
Gold trade is on hold until currency direction is determined. The dollar will eventually break though, so holding the small position I bought yesterday morning..... that way I'll watch gold. We'll see where that goes....
US dollar is oversold on 3hr and daily charts, so there's a chance it will bounce back up.... or maybe it just goes into full tank mode and ignores indicators. Hard market to judge.
Absorption dayAfter the S&P break to the downside on the daily chart, the expectation is that on Thursday the market will trade inside the range of Wednesday's action as the market absorbs what happened with fundamental comments on Wednesday. New bearish news could push the market lower but that is not expected for Thursday.
Buyers entered the S&P 500 on FridayStructurally in the S&P 500 daily chart it appears that buyers entered the market on Friday but it is in a tenuous situation because all it will take will be a comment, a negotiated deal or some other tariff situation that can create tremendous volatility for this market. If those fundamentals do not occur the expectation would be a firmer S&P 500 starting in the Asia session Sunday night at 5 o'clock Chicago time.
S&P - What will happen next for the S&P?The S&P 500 has been dropping quickly after Trump's tariff policies were announced. It fell from 5750 to 4900, and is now at 5053, all in just a few days. This is a sharp decline, and sellers are clearly in control right now.
However, after such a big drop, it's common to see a short-term bounce before the market continues to fall. There is strong resistance between 5400 and 5500, which lines up with the golden pocket (a key level in technical analysis). This could make it harder for the S&P to rise past these levels.
Looking further down, there is another strong support area between 4500 and 4600. This level also matches the golden pocket on the daily chart, making it an important point for potential support. If the market keeps falling, we could see this area tested before any significant recovery.
Right now, it seems likely that the market will keep going lower. My main expectation is that we’ll get a small rally first, which could trick some traders into thinking the market is recovering, before continuing down. However, with all the uncertainty around the news and policies right now, it's also possible the market could keep dropping sharply without much of a rally.
Keep a close eye on the markets and stick to good risk management practices. If you don’t, it could really hurt your portfolio. Stay alert and adjust your strategy as things change.
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Inside dayThe expectation for Friday's price behavior in the daily chart on the S&P 500 is for Friday's action to trade within the range of Thursday's high to low price range. It will be interesting to see how the market unfolds going into this weekend after the tremendous volatility we had this week. We need new news to see a dramatic move in this market for Friday.