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ES1! trade ideas

MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/17/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/17/25 📈 6047.25 (NEXT LEVELS: 6066, 6075.5, 6084.75) 📉 5969.75 (CLOSER LEVELS: 6018, 6008.5, 6000) 1/2 way mark 📈 6027.75 & 📉 5989.25 Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉💰 *These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by J3Trad3s
20250117 ESThere was a jigsaw for the AMS. The LOD was made at 4pm. This LOD created the REL. I do not anticipate these REL are to be raided this week. I would like one more upside subdivision with first d bs level raid. TGIF to start either during AMS sb or PMS Sb. I would like to see ORG as well. I anticipate some more upside, ideally to see bs raid. Though my main narrative is TGIF. The reversal to the downside is anticipated during AMS SB or PMS SB. I would like to see a clear 2022 model first before making any further judgments. Nevertheless the Wednesday ORG CE level is my -DOL if not for today but for the start of the next week.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by Yoo_Cool
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan 17thAt first glance, the market’s final hour yesterday looked bearish. However, for those who dont trade with retail..but trade against retail, things were simple. Just wait for retail to get trapped..aka failed breakdown setups (highlighted in plan for today), it was a clear long opportunity. We dipped below the 5974 and 5966 major zones, trapped shorts as usual, and triggered longs for buyers. Now, just hold runners—no further action needed, approaching our 6016 target. Remember, most professional traders dont trade on Fridays, and i rarely do as well. It's usually just managing runners from Thursday…if i have any. Capital preservation should be your main goal every Friday, with the only set ups being took are textbook failed breakdowns.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ESMorg
Market Outlook for Next Week (US):The upcoming week features key economic data and events that could influence market sentiment and asset prices. Below are the highlights and their potential market implications: Key Economic Events & Data Releases Flash PMIs for January (Tuesday, January 23, 2025) Time: 9:45 AM EST Expected Data: Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (Previous: 49.5) Services PMI: 51.3 (Previous: 50.9) If the Manufacturing PMI remains below 50, it will confirm ongoing contraction in the sector. However, an improvement in Services PMI could suggest resilience in the broader economy. Positive surprises in both PMIs may lead to a rally in equities, particularly in cyclical sectors, while disappointing data could weigh on sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday, January 25, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST Expected Data: Approximately 215,000 (Previous: 212,000) A low reading would signal continued strength in the labor market, likely reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This could put downward pressure on equities while supporting bond yields and the US dollar. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure may ease rate hike fears and support risk assets. Q4 2024 GDP Advance Estimate (Thursday, January 25, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST Expected Growth: 2.2% annualized (Previous: 2.5%) This release will provide insight into the economy’s performance during the final quarter of 2024. A weaker-than-expected GDP figure could fuel concerns about slowing growth and lead to a rally in bonds, while stronger growth may boost risk appetite but could reignite concerns about further Federal Reserve tightening. Core PCE Price Index (Friday, January 26, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST Expected Data: +0.2% month-over-month, 3.6% year-over-year (Previous: 3.8%) As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, this report will be closely monitored. A decline in the year-over-year figure may reduce pressure on the Fed to hike rates further, which could support equity markets and weaken the US dollar. Conversely, persistently high inflation could trigger renewed concerns about policy tightening, potentially weighing on equities. Consumer Sentiment Index – Final Reading for January (Friday, January 26, 2025) Time: 10:00 AM EST Expected Data: 64.8 (Previous: 64.6 preliminary) Consumer sentiment is a key indicator of household confidence and spending outlooks. An improvement could support consumer-related stocks, while any downward revision might weigh on the market. Overall Market Implications Equity markets will likely remain sensitive to any data hinting at changes in economic growth, inflation, or labor market conditions. Positive surprises in growth or inflation cooling could drive risk-on sentiment, while signs of a slowing economy or stubborn inflation might increase market volatility. Bond markets may see notable movement depending on the GDP and Core PCE figures, while the US dollar’s trajectory will largely depend on labor market and inflation data. Investors should prepare for potential volatility across sectors, particularly in interest rate-sensitive areas like technology and real estate.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeTools
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above. Invalidation is below 5950. bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish. Invalidation is above 6020. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX Futures in 8H timeframe Hello According to EW principles, one of the most controversial analysis in the market is to count a corrective waves and it is exactly what is happening for SPX. There are only one more scenario and it is when we count (ABC) down to RED CIRCLE all that happened is considered as wave 1 of 5 (green counting). I am waiting to see what will happen for out trend when it touched upper boundary of the channel. In all scenarios this is not the trade time for S&P. Thanks
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AMA_FX
2
2025-01-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral around 6000. Market is close to the daily 20ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. I won’t even think about longing this but it’s obviously wrong to short too early. As long as bulls keep it above 5950, they are good and in full control of the market. Targets above are 6030 and then 5050. If bulls break above the bear trend line, there aren’t many reasons why we could not just melt to 6100+. comment: Huge bull day but right at multiple prior resistances. Bad buy no matter how you put it. I would actually not be surprised if we trade below 5950 or lower tomorrow. We have been going wildly up and down in this bear wedge/channel and that pattern is valid until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls got the big move from the CPI news and they want to test the bear trend line and break above it. It’s just not a good buy and hoping for a breakout. I won’t make stuff up here. If bulls break above 6020, next target is 6068 and then 6100. Invalidation is below 5795. bear case: Bears need anything to stop the rally. They have good arguments with the daily ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. They came around the prior weeks and until that bear trend line is broken, I expect them to keep this a lower high as well. It would be pretty funny if we completely reverse today before we go into the weekend. Invalidation is above 6030. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 15m chart around 5956 was good.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Behind the Curtain: Key Influencers of S&P 500 Futures Returns1. Introduction The S&P 500 Futures (ES) represents one of the most actively traded futures contracts globally, serving as a benchmark for U.S. equity markets. Its liquidity and versatility make it a prime choice for traders seeking exposure to market movements. However, the factors driving these movements are far from random. Economic indicators often play a pivotal role in influencing the direction and volatility of S&P 500 Futures. In this article, we dive into how various economic indicators shape the performance of S&P 500 Futures on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. Leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we’ve identified the top drivers of these futures’ returns. The findings offer traders actionable insights to fine-tune their strategies and understand the broader market dynamics. 2. Understanding S&P 500 Futures Product Specifications: Tick Size: Each tick represents 0.25 index points, equivalent to $12.50 per tick. Trading Hours: Nearly 24-hour trading cycle, ensuring liquidity across time zones. Micro Contracts: Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES): Designed for smaller-scale traders with a contract size 1/10th of the standard E-mini contract. Advantages: Lower initial margin requirements and smaller tick values allow traders to manage positions more flexibly. Margin Requirements: Initial and maintenance margins vary based on volatility and market conditions. Currently around $15,500 per contract. Micro contracts offer significantly lower margin requirements, making them ideal for retail traders or those testing strategies. Currently around $1,550 per contract. 3. Key Economic Indicators Influencing S&P 500 Futures Daily Impacts: 1. Labor Force Participation Rate: Reflects the percentage of the working-age population that is employed or actively seeking employment. A rise in this rate often signals economic optimism, driving equities higher. 2. Building Permits: Tracks the number of new residential construction permits issued. A strong rise in permits indicates confidence in the housing market, which can positively influence broader economic sentiment and equities. 3. Initial Jobless Claims: A leading indicator of labor market health, providing real-time insights into layoffs. Weekly fluctuations can significantly impact intraday futures trading. Weekly Impacts: 1. Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): A measure of credit risk in the economy, reflecting the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads often signal economic uncertainty, weighing on equity markets. 2. Velocity of Money (M2): Represents the rate at which money circulates in the economy. High velocity can indicate economic expansion, while slowing velocity may suggest stagnation, affecting equity futures trends. 3. Net Exports: Tracks the balance of a country’s exports and imports. Positive trends often boost market optimism, whereas persistent deficits can trigger concerns about economic health. Monthly Impacts: 1. Oil Import Price Index: Reflects the cost of imported crude oil, which has ripple effects on production costs across industries. Rising oil import prices may pressure corporate earnings, impacting the broader S&P 500 index. 2. PPI: Processed Foods and Feeds: Tracks price changes in processed agricultural products, offering insights into supply chain pressures. Sharp increases can hint at inflationary risks, influencing long-term equity market sentiment. 3. Consumer Sentiment Index: o Measures consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health. o High sentiment often signals robust consumer spending, which supports equities. 4. Applications for Different Trading Styles Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators like Initial Jobless Claims and Labor Force Participation Rate. Example: A sudden drop in jobless claims could signal short-term economic strength, providing day traders with bullish opportunities. Swing Traders (Weekly): Leverage weekly trends like Corporate Bond Spread or Velocity of Money (M2). Example: A narrowing bond spread might indicate improving business confidence, aligning with medium-term bullish positions. Position Traders (Monthly): Use monthly indicators such as Oil Import Price Index and Consumer Sentiment Index to identify macroeconomic trends. Example: Rising consumer sentiment could indicate a stronger economy, supporting long-term bullish strategies in S&P 500 Futures. 5. Risk Management Through Indicator Analysis Refining Entry and Exit Points: Use indicator data to align trades with anticipated market shifts. For instance, an uptick in the Oil Import Price Index might signal upcoming headwinds for equities. Managing Leverage: Understanding the volatility drivers like Treasury Yields can help traders adjust position sizes to manage risk effectively. Diversification Across Timeframes: Incorporate insights from multiple timeframes to hedge risks. For example, while short-term indicators may suggest volatility, long-term metrics can provide stability signals. Hedging Strategies: Use correlated assets or options to mitigate downside risks. Combining economic indicator analysis with market seasonality can enhance portfolio resilience. 6. Conclusion Economic indicators provide invaluable insights into the drivers of S&P 500 Futures, helping traders align their strategies with market trends. Whether focusing on daily volatility from indicators like Initial Jobless Claims or broader monthly trends such as the Consumer Sentiment Index, understanding these relationships can enhance trading decisions. By leveraging machine learning and data-driven analysis, this article highlights how indicators shape market movements across various timeframes. The insights empower traders to adopt tailored approaches—whether intraday, swing, or long-term—while improving risk management practices. This framework not only applies to S&P 500 Futures but can also be extended to other markets. Stay tuned for the next article in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we explore another futures market and its relationship with key economic indicators. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv