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ES1! trade ideas

Trading Plan ES TODAYCurrent Position: Average entry price stands at 5741, ATM. Trading Plan: Targeting a push toward 5800, with plans to exit prior to the U.S. market open. Although seller momentum appears depleted, I remain cautious about the likelihood of a sustained rally. Intraday Strategy: Hold a bullish outlook until the market open. Anticipate a retracement toward yesterday’s close, at which point I intend to re-enter long positions. Monitoring Approach: I will closely supervise the U.S. market open trades with heightened scrutiny compared to pre-market positioning.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by OssianH
2024-2025: A New Global Crisis with Echoes of 2008In 2024, a new global crisis begins , and as usual, crises in the U.S. strongly impact the global economy, causing synchronized market declines worldwide. The S&P 500 market peak has been reached. The 2024–2025 crisis will be comparable in scale to the 2008 crisis, with a target decline range of 37-57% from the market peak. In terms of duration, the crisis is expected to persist throughout 2025 and may end in 2026. A more precise forecast of the crisis's conclusion can be made by monitoring the actions of the Federal Reserve, including changes in the United States Money Supply M2.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Smollet
ES1 1W Bear ABCD Ext harmonicThe Bullish 5-0 pattern which has been at play over the last few years has finally run its course to price target at 1.272 extension. A bearish ABCD Extended pattern has formed recently, with retracement, but has reversed out of the prz and should drop rapidly to ABCD point C ~4350. This coincides with active bear deep crab harmonic on NQ1! (see prev post). This is a Weekly chart intended to show trend reversal and swing trading at key pivots--not for intraday.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by wormmaster2021
2 Day Anchored VWAP on ES futuresInitially you have to understand what the volume weighted average price (VWAP) is. Broadly it can be defined as: Total dollars traded divided by the total shares for the period studied Vwap= ∑(Price∙Volume)/∑(Volume) This means that VWAP is more responsive to volume than price and its calculation does not depend on the timeframe we are in. It is also the most common benchmark used to compute transaction costs. what is the anchored VWAP ? The AVWAP is an indication of the average transaction price of the participants for however long it’s plotted. Normally the VWAP resets everyday at the start of the trading session, but the anchored vwap will continue its calculations from the candle it was anchored until the present bar meaning no resets in that period. In an uptrend buyers will try to defend that average entry price when price comes back to it. in the uptrend when the AVWAP is below price that means that the average participant is making money, when price crosses under they start to lose money and that could lead them to try to exit and push price even lower. So the cross of the AVWAP can mark a change on the near term trend. It is very important to mark the AVWAP from significant price levels or catalysts, in this case we will analyze the 2 Day anchored VWAP (2DAVWAP) on CME_MINI:ES1! futures. Where do you anchor the 2DAVWAP ? For example, if it's a wednesday morning you want to anchor the VWAP at monday 5pm CME_MINI:ES1! futures open. An easy way of finding the right candle to anchor is checking the "session breaks" option in the chart settings so after your session break line shows the next candle (in any timeframe) that will be the one anchored so you can trade it at the next session. How to trade it ? 1. It is very important that CME_MINI:ES1! is in a clear and strong uptrend, this is a following the trend strategy. It can also be used in downtrends but backtesting it has proven to me that long setups are the best setups. If CME_MINI:ES1! has been uptrending and then starts consolidating but starts to move up from a good support level you can also enter a setup on that market context. 2. Anchor the VWAP from the session open and wait until next day. 3. Wait until price retraces to the 2DAVWAP the next day. It only works when the retracement happens the next day, don't trade that anchored VWAP further than that. 2. Watch the price action - Volume when it reaches the AVWAP. Price action and volume should Show an effort of buyers to continue the trend, Candle should reach the 2DAVWAP and form a hammer candlestick closing above the AVWAP in the 15 min TF (best entry point, wait for candle close). 3. Mark the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels from previous day low to the present day high. The lowest price can go for you to still consider entering the trade is the 50% retracement, lower than that you dismiss the trade. Go with confidence if there is a confluence between fib and the 2DAVWAP. 4. Set a Stop loss based on maximum adverse excursion (MAE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is always try to enter the closest to were you would be wrong in a trade, which can be below the 50% retracement for example. 5. Set a Target profit based on maximum favorable excursion (MFE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is try to exit at least at previous highs if there is volatility on the day. Finally, the entry could be at any time of the day, it could happen at 2 am EST or it could happen at 10 am EST, it really does not matter. Always take trading seriously, stay discipline and do your own backtesting and find what works the best for you. I will be posting more educational posts on AVWAP. This strategy has only been backtested in CME_MINI:ES1! futures.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by FTWTraders
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bull trend line is now also broken and once market prints below 5800, this is over until year end rally might try 6000 again. Same logic as dax but market is not as bearish after today. Bears need follow through below 5820 and then 5800, if they get it, buckle up. Bulls obviously want to reverse up like the past 2 weeks and trade above 5900 again. current market cycle: triangle probably broken - entering bigger trading range key levels: 5800 - 5870 bull case: Bulls need to stay above 5830 or we test 5820, followed by 5800. Today’s close does not look good. Before the close I heavily favored the bulls to reverse this again but then we saw couple of sell spikes which erased the previous lows. Market turns neutral again above 5865. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears need follow through. No surprise. 5800 is the target for tomorrow, once they get it, market is free to fall down to 5730-5740. Interesting day ahead of us. Invalidation is above 5920. short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5865. Best chance for bears in a long time. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 5880 and buying 5850 has been profitable for many days now. So it was today.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds