ReCap from this morning!trade explanation going over why i had a bullish bias this morning. going over my loss of -$300 to a win of +$1,162 putting me at a profit of $866 for the morning.
ES1! trade ideas
Conservative movement to the upside is expectedAnother small conservative move to the upside in the S&P 500 is expected for Thursday with the close above 6175.
S&P Weekly chart analysis2-19-25 S&P Weekly chart
Jan 13 week, trap reversal. Two strong bars and pullback needs a 2nd leg up, in progress. Bears have NOTHING to sell. Bears had a chance with the Feb 3rd week, gapping down, but still closing bullish. Bulls will buy everything and pushing hard for targets above.
Still, price seems labored and days see bulls taking quick profits.
S&P Monthly chartLikely to form a period of consolidation, 2 more legs up followed by larger reversal. Monthly chart looking like a mature parabolic wedge.
ES NQ AND RTY FUTURES LOOK AT TODAY with TARGETSQuick look at ES NQ and RTY with full extension and dropside targets. Prio video from earlier today never uploaded.
ES Morning Update/Chart Sent Out Yesterday6120 continues to be a money magnet in ES. Yesterday’s approach was simple: the 6116-20 zone had to hold to keep 6138 and 6154+ in play. It held perfectly, and we ran to 6157—so just hold your runners.
As of now:
• We’re in a complex flag between 6129 and 6154
• 6129 must hold and rebound by 38 points to unlock targets at 45 and 54+
• If 6129 fails, expect a dip toward 6116, then 6109
Strength in NQ futuresHi Fellow traders
I'll be starting my regular post of my bias of the market. Using Futures market as a indication of potential strength and weakness of the market.
Bias will be bullish into the open on NasDdaq as you can see from the comparison of Nasdaq VS S&P that there is a bullish divergence between NQ and ES. which is in alignment with the higher time frame draw
Specifically Long Nasdaq > S&P
My prediction would be that market will open to push for higher high
Use RSI Like a GoldmanYou might be wondering, do the traders at Goldman Sachs use the Relative Strength Index (RSI)? The answer is, perhaps they do, and perhaps they don’t. However, based on my experience, I can confidently say that even the most seasoned and professional traders rely on RSI from time to time.
While it may not be their sole tool for decision-making, it’s often included in their broader strategy due to its effectiveness in identifying overbought or oversold conditions in the market. RSI is one of many technical indicators that can serve as a helpful signal in navigating market trends, and even the best traders find it useful on occasion.
When trading with technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), having a clear and structured approach is crucial to maximizing its effectiveness. While RSI can be a powerful tool for identifying potential trend reversals, it’s essential to understand the right conditions and context in which to use it.
Below are some key principles and guidelines that can help you apply RSI more effectively in your trading strategy. Whether you’re a swing trader or a day trader, these tips can help you avoid common pitfalls and make more informed decisions in the market.
⚙️ Keep Settings Simple
Keep the RSI settings minimal to avoid confusion. Stick to the standard 14-period lookback, which is widely used and reliable for most market conditions.
📉📈 Ensure Divergence Occurs Outside of Key Levels
Divergence should only be considered when the RSI reaches extreme levels, typically above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold). This helps to identify potential trend reversals. Divergence at neutral levels (like between 40–60) may not be as effective.
🔥 Base Divergence on Candle Closes, Not Wicks
Always look for divergence based on the closing price of candles. Divergence created by wick movements is unreliable and can lead to false signals. Stick to the body of the candle to ensure accuracy.
⏳ Watch the Lookback Period
The RSI’s default lookback period is 14, and divergence with a gap of more than 14 candles is generally less reliable. Wider gaps often signal weak price momentum and a higher chance of failure, so focus on shorter, more recent divergences for better results.
💧 Liquidity Must Be Taken Before Entering Trades
Liquidity is essential when confirming trade setups:
The first high or low should take out liquidity from higher time frames (such as range highs and lows).
The subsequent highs or lows should take out local liquidity, which can be identified by overbought or oversold RSI conditions. Ensure there’s a clear market structure shift before entering trades.
⏰ Timeframe Considerations for Different Trade Types
For swing trades, focus on longer timeframes like the 4-hour chart to capture larger market moves and trends.
For day trades, the 15-minute timeframe is ideal for capturing short-term price action and finer market details.
🔄 Use Divergences for Trend Reversals, in Confluence with Other Analysis
RSI divergence is best used to identify potential trend reversals. However, it should not be used in isolation. Always look for confluence with other technical analysis methods (such as support/resistance levels, moving averages, or candlestick patterns) to increase the reliability of the signal. Combining multiple tools enhances the accuracy of your trade setups.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
Absorption of the Fed minutes.Wednesday will give us insights into how the market absorbs the Fed minutes being released on Wednesday. The expectation is the market as a very good feel for what will be revealed and could maintain that upward movement seen in the market. The next objective that you'd want to see the market closing above is 6170.
AMP Futures - Tune bar replay with adjustable intervalsIn this video we will demonstrate how to adjust time intervals using Market replay.
Brief explanation of this mornings trade using Order Flow.A Brief explanation of my ES trade this morning using Order Flow and Foot print chart. I explained the foot print chart to my understanding so far using this method.
S&P 500 Futures - The stop hunt before the next move higher?Trading SPY, QQQ, or its futures counterparts had people checking their swing trades! A previous pivot point near the 0.382 level showed an area of piled up stop loss orders. With a glimpse of all time highs early in the morning a new measurement was required at the over night swing level. Price took the elevator down to grab the liquidity before moving higher? Or will this mark a reversal point for the S&P 500?
ES NQ AND RTY FUTURES QUICK OVERVIEW OF TODAY and LEVELS Areas of major interest from last nights and todays futures session. High probability levels to keep a close eye on for further developments.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/18/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/18/25
📈6170
📉6135
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 18thPatience paid off for buyers. Friday morning, longs were triggered off 6120 support in ES, forming a solid flag from 6120 to 6147. The breakout target at 6154 was hit around 2am unfortunately, so now it’s time to protect gains and let the runners ride if you have them. No new entries unless we get some dips first.
As of now:
• Next targets are 6168 and 6185-88
• 6138 is holding as support
• If the price dips back to 6120, prepare to sell below that level
RTY NQ AND ES FUTURES QUICK LOOK AND LEVELS TO WATCH FORQuick look at ES NQ and RTY futures levels and areas of interest
Bearish MES1! Contracts Ahead of the Next Day of TradeBearish setup on MES1! as price looks to break key support levels. Watch for a potential move lower as market sentiment shifts. Stay alert for confirmation of further weakness and key entry points. Risk management will be key as we navigate this potential downtrend
A calm marketThe shortened session price action on Monday in the S&P 500 implies a calm market. However, we are at levels that we have found sellers before so we do want to be cautious at these levels. The challenge will be can buyers follow through to the upside as the week progresses.
ES FUTURES QUICK LOOK AT TODAYS ACTION AND AREAS OF INTERESTFirst Video on Tradingview. Quick ES look at major levels and what to expect soon with a possible push up and a big selldown
ES Morning Update NYSE is closed and ES wrapped up early at 1pm. No change from Friday—just let those runners work. On Friday, as outlined in the plan, I was looking for a rally from 6120 to 6137-43, and we achieved that move.
As of now:
• 6120-6143 is forming a flag
• This setup paves the way for targets at 6154, 6168, and 6184 when ready
• A dip below 6120 signals a sell
Leap Ahead with a Dual Breakout Setup on ES and MESThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade S&P 500 Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition gives traders the opportunity to test their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants have access to select CME Group futures contracts, including E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) and Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES).
This article presents a dual breakout trade setup, analyzing both bullish and bearish scenarios based on key Fibonacci levels and low volatility price ranges. The goal is to trade the breakout of a well-defined range and target either a Fibonacci extension to the upside or a retracement level to the downside.
Understanding Breakouts and Fibonacci Levels
A breakout occurs when price moves beyond a defined support or resistance level, often leading to a strong trend continuation. In this case, the trading range between 6146.75 and 6121.25 is the key level to watch. A breakout above this range suggests bullish momentum, while a breakout below signals bearish pressure.
Fibonacci retracement levels are used to identify potential support or resistance zones based on past price movements. The 50% retracement level at 5985.75 aligns with a UFO support, making it a key downside target if price breaks lower.
Fibonacci extension levels project potential price targets beyond the most recent high or low. The 100% Fibonacci extension at 6288.75 serves as the projected upside target if price breaks higher.
The Dual Breakout Trade Setup
In a bullish scenario, a breakout above 6146.75 confirms entry to the upside. The target for this trade is the 100% Fibonacci extension at 6288.75. A stop loss is placed below the breakout level at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
In a bearish scenario, a breakdown below 6121.25 confirms entry to the downside. The target is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 5985.75, which aligns with a UFO support zone. A stop loss is placed above the breakdown level, ensuring a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Risk management considerations include adjusting stop losses based on a trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Scaling out at intermediate levels can help manage volatility and secure partial profits.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) details:
Full contract specs: ES Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: $50 x S&P 500 Index
Tick size: 0.25 index points ($12.50 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility – Currently ≈$15,000 per contract.
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) details:
Full contract specs: MES Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: $5 x S&P 500 Index (1/10th of ES)
Tick size: 0.25 index points ($1.25 per tick)
Lower margin requirements make it more accessible for smaller accounts – Currently ≈$1,500 per contract.
Leverage in ES and MES magnifies both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider margin requirements and market conditions when determining position sizes.
Execution and Market Conditions
Before executing a trade, a typical breakout trader would watch price confirm a breakout by sustaining above or below the key levels. Additional confirmation from volume trends and momentum indicators can improve trade accuracy.
If price does not break out, the setup remains invalid. If a false breakout occurs, traders may need to reassess conditions before re-entering.
Conclusion
A dual breakout setup provides both bullish and bearish opportunities depending on price movement. Fibonacci extensions provide upside targets, while retracement levels align with strong support zones for downside moves.
For participants in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, confirmation, and structured risk management.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
TVMV Framework PreviewAs I explained in the video, this is a preview on an upcoming framework I plan to release once I break either 100-1000 followers.
Best Wishes.
Pivot Candles with MFI OpacityHow to Use the Pivot Candles with MFI Opacity Indicator for Trade Entries and Position Management
Overview
This indicator is designed not only to display key pivot levels (support and resistance) and Money Flow Index (MFI) signals on your chart, but also to help you structure systematic order entries and position management. By combining pivot levels with dynamic MFI-based candle opacity, the indicator provides a visual framework that technical analysts and quants can use to time buy and sell stop orders as well as to pyramid positions or take profits.
Trade Entry with Pivot Levels
Buy Stop Orders Above R1:
Concept: In many technical setups, resistance levels such as R1 are viewed as potential breakout points. A buy stop order placed just above R1 allows you to enter a long position only when price decisively breaks the prior resistance, confirming bullish momentum.
How It Works:
The indicator calculates pivot levels based on the previous higher‑timeframe bar, so R1 is “locked in” for the current period.
When the current candle closes above R1, it may signal a breakout.
Technical analysts often place a buy stop order slightly above R1 (for example, a few ticks or pips above the level) to confirm the move.
Practical Application:
Quants and systematic traders can program their models to monitor when the current close exceeds R1.
Once this condition is met, a buy stop order is triggered to capture the breakout move, ensuring that you only participate if the price decisively moves upward.
Sell Stop Orders Below S1:
Concept: Conversely, S1 acts as a support level. A sell stop order placed just below S1 is designed to capture a breakdown. This order is activated when price closes below S1, indicating that selling pressure may be overwhelming.
How It Works:
With pivot levels fixed from the previous higher‑timeframe bar, S1 provides a reference for potential support.
A close below S1 can be interpreted as a sign of a bearish reversal or a continuation of a downtrend.
Practical Application:
Quants set up their systems to watch for a break below S1.
A sell stop order is positioned just below S1 to ensure that if the support level fails, the system can quickly initiate a short position to capture the downward move.
Using MFI for Position Management
Pyramiding and Profit Taking:
Dynamic Candle Opacity:
The Money Flow Index (MFI) in this indicator not only provides overbought/oversold alerts but also controls the opacity of your candlesticks. When MFI readings are high, the candles become more opaque, indicating strong buying pressure. Conversely, lower MFI values lead to more transparent candles, suggesting reduced momentum.
Pyramiding Long Positions:
Strategy:
In a strong trend, technical analysts might choose to add to a winning position gradually—a process known as pyramiding.
Implementation:
As long as the price remains above R1 and MFI readings are supportive (high and consistent), you may consider adding to your long position incrementally.
Each new buy stop order can be set above R1 with slightly adjusted trigger levels to capture further breakout strength.
Risk Management:
Quants use the MFI reading as a risk filter; if MFI begins to drop or the candles become significantly more transparent, it may be a cue to stop pyramiding or even begin taking profits.
Taking Profit Using MFI and Pivot Reversals:
Profit Targeting:
When price reaches higher resistance levels (e.g., R2 or R3) or shows signs of overextension in conjunction with extreme MFI levels (for instance, a sudden drop in MFI after a strong rally), you can begin taking partial profits.
Systematic Exit:
A systematic strategy might include scaling out of the position as the price approaches the next resistance level or when the MFI indicates that buying momentum is waning.
Similarly, for short positions entered below S1, profit targets might be set near subsequent support levels, with exits triggered if MFI suggests a reversal.
Summary
Entry Orders:
Place buy stop orders just above R1 to capture breakouts.
Place sell stop orders just below S1 to capture breakdowns.
Position Management with MFI:
Use MFI-based candle opacity as a visual indicator of momentum.
Pyramid positions in the direction of the trend when MFI confirms strength.
Consider partial exits if MFI readings start to reverse or if the price nears the next pivot level.
By following this systematic approach, technical analysts and quants can use the indicator not only as a visual tool but as an integral part of an automated or semi-automated trading system that emphasizes disciplined entries, pyramiding, and profit-taking.
