SP500**SP500:**
New all-time high at 5828.50.
This week's forecast is that the price will continue to rise.
ES1! trade ideas
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - Hit 'n' MissAwaiting more data to make a accurate decision on the next draw on liquidity
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: The big bull trend line from 2022-01 + 2022-07 is valid so far and forms a broad bull channel with the April + August low. We are at the top and until bulls can not break strongly above 5800, that price is resistance. Bears not doing enough, so I am neutral until one side gains momentum. Also continues inside nested bull wedges and the smallest will break out next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it.
comment: Second week in a row where bears could not get a single daily bar below the previous daily low. Small pullback bull trend where we slowly grind higher. We are again at the highs of multiple patterns and betting on a breakout is a bad trade. You can literally buy any pullback and make money and until this changes, buy them. Just make sure to have tight stops at the highs.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5750 - 5850
bull case: Not much different to last week, since we are only 30 points higher. Bulls need a very strong daily bar above 5840 to make more traders believe in a breakout above. For now it’s very low probability they get it. Bulls are in full BTFD mode on every small dip and you should join them until they start making lower lows.
Invalidation is below 5770.
bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as s*** are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730.
Invalidation is above 5840.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5762 and now we are at 5791. Neutral was very good since we barely moved. Not doing anything here is also very decent.
short term: Neutral. Next breakout will come soon. I expect Monday/Tuesday since the small bull wedge has no more room to go and we are at the upper bull trend line for the bigger one. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which side it will break out to. You don’t have a magic mirror either so just be prepared for the breakout and wait for it to happen. You never ever want to be the first in a trade. The odds are so stacked against you in the long run, you can not make a living being the first as a retail trader.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None
[ES] Has the S&P 500 Finished Its Runup?I doubt it. That move doesn't look like it's done.
The general principle that this basic analysis follows is that the market moves in 3s and 5s. Now, that may sound a lot like Elliot Waves and it should. 3s and 5s were Ralph N. Elliot's primary discovery and contribution to the discovery of natural phenomena in markets.
That said, it is dangerous to get dogmatic about rules. The same applies to Fibonacci extensions. But when you combine "3s and 5s" and "Fibonacci" you end up with a pretty reliable pattern. When there is a three wave move in progress (which could eventually turn into a five), you can pretty reliably trade that move (up in this case) to the 0.786 trend extension (highest probability), the 1.000 extension (high probability), or it could turn into a five wave move that goes clear up to the 1.618 extension (lowest probability move).
It is not wise to be dogmatic about these strategies though, because you have to listen to the market. The market is the CEO of this enterprise, not the lines on your chart. That said, this works better than 50% of the time without question. It's a generally truthism that markets move in 3s and 5s. The challenge comes when it comes to 'wen buy, wen sell.' There is no right answer to that. Sure, the market moves in 3s and 5s, but to take advantage of it requires fluidity and a careful consideration of your (a) risks, (b) 'Bayesian priors" (if you will), and (c) the adjacent future outcomes as the come into view.
This is not an endorsement of either methodology. It is merely a demonstration of the veracity of components of those methodologies.
Trade well.
#ES_F 9.29 - 10.04.24 Distribution Continues ?Last Week :
Last week market opened and failed to get under VAH during the Globex session, we needed that to see more weakness from previous week. Instead we push back inside the Edge and started balancing above most of the supply which brough stability. We got a mid week Globex stop run into next unexplored Value which couldn't hold when Volume came in closer to RTH and it flushed back towards the Edge where we balanced above into the week end.
This Week :
Friday finished with a break back inside the Edge with a few days of Supply above. Sellers are at and above the Edge, holding under 5810s puts us in 5790 - 40s Range which with Supply above could give us fills back Inside/Under the Edge.
Needs to be holding above Edge and 5810 areas for a change and acceptance in 5790 - 5830s Range.
Lack luster closeThe inside day on Friday in the S&P 500 creates a lack luster close going into the weekend. It does not demonstrate the confidence that you would want to see on a Friday. My expectation for Monday is the continuation of a sideways market.
The overnight gap up on $SPYThe majority of the move in AMEX:SPY since 1993 has been in the overnight session.
In a trending bull market, and making new highs, this gap trade becomes more common.
But it doesn’t happen every day
We bought the close on Friday, looking to close out early near the open on Monday
Theres countless papers on this edge, heres one about the overnight drift
papers.ssrn.com
20240927 ESI anticipate more upside to make bs raid and new HOD. There is only projection Fibo to anticipate the level on the upside. I anticipate 5845.50 level to be the +DOL. That will be the level where PA can start to form top for this day and deliver TGIF PA with move to the downside to the level of 5762.00.
ProfessionalBuying using TradeToWin VSA and SMI - Wyckoff MethodIn this short video I explain one of the most important Wyckoff VSA set ups to go long.
Ultra High volume "Wyckoff Spring" followed by a change in market behaviour with testing shown in multiple time frames. This example is the E-Mini S&P futures starting with the hourly chart. The markets move on laws, which include Supply and Demand, No Supply and No Demand, Cause and Effect and Effort vs Result. These charts explain it perfectly. Any questions please send me a message on TradingView or You Tube.
ES/SPX levels and targets sept 27thIt was all about one key level in ES yesterday: 5790. Once we broke out, we hit the 5823+ target, and 5790 flipped to support. We’ve tested it three times now since then, with one solid failed breakdown playing out perfectly around 1 PM yesterday.
As of now: 5788 (tested already) and 5773 are the supports. As long as buyers hold it, 5812, 5823, and 5828+ are in play. Shorts only slightly trigger if 5773 cracks
S&P500 will become a long-range missile We are very close to a major correction triggered by further geopolitical escalations. The US economy and political situation will be the last nail to burst the bubble, likely in Q1 of 2025.
The market is readyThe S&P 500 market is ready for the fundamentals coming out on Friday such as the PCE and consumer sentiment. The results from these reports cannot only given attitude for current price behavior but the expectation for future Fed action.
Can $ES Overcome Resistance or It's Another TumbleES has been stuck around this level for a while, this is the point that sent price tumbling in July. This would make sense as the TVC:DXY is also finding support on the 200 week moving average. The longer we take failing to break this level we can be assured that the Dollar will have a cycle low and force the stock market down. The setup in the market is not for one to assume risk but rather manage positions established already, from here markets can unwind for a while and put one under water.
SPX $ Key Levels | Day Trading Stats 70%+ AccuracyNew price targets for Sep 26 using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy.
Topics:
- Upside Target
- Downside Target
- Support & Resistance
- High of Day
- Low Of Day
- Session Stats
- News Release Times
Overall we use stats and data pulled from a wide array of TradingView indicators and scripts so that I can have as much data as possible - even if it's unstructured or uncorrelated data. I then use AI and SOP's to systematically calculate a weekly and daily framework. My predictions are never 100% but ALL of them are mathematically proven to be 70%+ accurate historically or I wouldn't use them.
Most indicators I use on my Data Dashboard chart has the stats in their associated boxes that I show during the recording if you'd like to verify yourself.
Please leave me feedback as I am new to creating content and would like to improve.
Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade.
Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
Sideways to higherThe expected price movement for the S&P 500 for Thursday is for a sideways the higher move as additional fundamental information comes out.
my view on current market SPXhoping spx to reach 5800 then tank
My view on current market based on technical analysis
Es levels and targets sept 25thWe are still consolidating in ES. 5767 has been the key pivot, bouncing off or failed breakdown 9 times already. Yesterday’s targets were 5782, 5789+, and we’re still sitting at 5789.
As of now: 5782 and 5769 are supports. As long as buyers hold, we’re looking at 5808-10+ up next. If 5769-70 fails, 5757 we go.
Lesson 6: Staying Emotionally Aware in TradingWelcome to Lesson 6 of the Hercules Trading Psychology Course—Staying Emotionally Aware in Trading. Building on the essential traits of Patience, Initiative, and Discipline covered in previous lessons, today we explore the critical role of Emotional Awareness in achieving long-term trading success across all financial markets, including stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and forex.
How Can You Stay Emotionally Aware in Trading?
Listening to advice and consuming educational content can significantly boost your confidence and help you achieve impressive monthly returns. However, there’s a catch: experiencing high returns can lead to emotional blindness, much like speeding in a fast car without recognizing the potential for a crash.
Once you encounter this emotional wall, the decisions you make next are pivotal for your trading future. That’s why maintaining emotional awareness is crucial. Understanding that there are both right and wrong ways to win in trading, especially during periods of success, is essential for sustainable profitability.
This lesson breaks down the importance of emotional awareness, covering both the big picture and the intricate details, while emphasizing the fundamental role of money management in any trading strategy.
Why Should You Care About Trading Psychology?
Risk management is undeniably important, and many traders are becoming more adept at it. While focusing on finding the best trade entries is essential, many overlook another key player: Trading Psychology. This aspect can profoundly influence your trading results. Despite the growing emphasis on risk management, not enough traders are tuning into the psychological components of trading.
This gap highlights just how crucial trading psychology is. When traders believe they have everything under control, they might ignore the emotional rollercoaster that trading can bring, undermining their success.
What Are Key Strategies for Trading Success?
To excel in trading, one golden rule is to avoid unnecessary interference and resist the urge to act as if you know more than your trading system. Stick to these three principles, and you might find success in the long run, even amidst the emotional ups and downs that come with trading.
Emotions play a significant role in our lives—from music to relationships—but in trading, it’s vital to keep them in check. It’s perfectly normal to feel emotions, but letting them dictate your trading decisions can be detrimental. Professional traders know how to stay calm under pressure, maintaining a clear and objective mindset.
New traders often experience a rush of emotions during winning streaks, leading to common mistakes. Understanding these pitfalls is essential for maintaining a disciplined approach during both profitable and challenging times.
How to Set Realistic Trading Expectations
Managing your trading success requires balancing consistent returns with emotional control, which can be a rollercoaster ride. Achieving milestones is exciting, but it’s not just about securing wins; it’s about venturing into new territory with realistic expectations.
A common trap is believing that your wins are guaranteed—thinking you can achieve a steady 15% profit every month without setbacks. This mindset can lead to overconfidence, making it difficult to sustain long-term success.
It’s crucial to set realistic earning goals and understand that trading involves ups and downs. Anyone claiming otherwise might be misleading you. Prepare for challenges instead of assuming trading will always be smooth sailing.
How Should You Approach Risk and Returns in Trading?
It’s important to remember that if you’re not hitting that 9% monthly return and only achieving 1.5%, it doesn’t mean you’ve failed. Instead, it’s a classic case of regression to the mean. A steady 1.5% monthly return is actually impressive and can pave the way to becoming a professional trader over time, even if some high performers overlook this perspective.
Avoid the temptation to increase your risk just because you think you’re on a winning streak. Such actions can lead to unsustainable returns and significant losses. Look to seasoned investors who stay calm and play the long game, consistently achieving impressive annual returns by focusing on disciplined strategies.
When markets take a downturn, refocus on these core concepts to avoid emotional trading and strengthen your grasp on risk management.
Why Is Trading Experience So Crucial?
Jumping into trading without real experience sets you up for significant struggles. While making a profit feels great, the reality of trading can hit hard sooner or later. When things go sideways, it’s an opportunity to pause and reflect—did you stick to your rules or make impulsive decisions? These mistakes can lead to overtrading, making it essential to review and learn from setbacks.
Learning from these challenges allows you to bounce back and tackle the market with renewed strength. Grasping the bigger picture and applying those lessons is key, especially when practicing on demo accounts.
How Can Emotions Affect Your Trading?
Trading can be an emotional rollercoaster! Many traders find themselves spiraling into different emotional states that can significantly impact their decision-making. To manage these emotions effectively, consider three simple actions:
Stay Regret-Free:
Avoid feeling regret over successful trades. Instead, focus on the strategy and the process that led to those wins. This mindset helps maintain a clear perspective by the end of the trading year.
Avoid Emotional Trading:
While it’s natural to feel emotions, don’t let them take control of your trading decisions. Keeping emotions in check allows for more rational and objective trading choices.
Learn from Mistakes:
Acknowledge that mistakes are part of the trading journey. Use them as learning opportunities to improve your trading strategies and emotional control.
By adopting these practices, you can enhance your trading performance and maintain a balanced mindset.
How Does Trading Psychology Impact Your Success?
Many traders feel disappointed when their performance drops from high returns to moderate ones. Instead of celebrating their wins, they focus on what they missed, which can lead to a negative mindset and hinder future performance.
It’s essential to stay flexible and not become fixated on specific performance metrics, especially in volatile markets. Regret can interfere with your trading game, so sticking to a reliable trading system is crucial. Always monitor your risks and be strategic about when to take profits to prevent unexpected losses.
How to Move Past Trading Regrets
Regret is a common emotion among traders, especially when reflecting on missed opportunities, such as exiting trades too early. Straying from your trading system invites losses over time, as these systems are designed to be effective when followed consistently.
Relying on emotions for trading decisions often leads to chaos, particularly for those who can’t adhere to their rules. It’s tempting to increase risks during seemingly easy trades, but this is a result of hindsight bias complicating decision-making.
Instead, focus on three key principles to simplify trading and achieve long-term success without overcomplicating the process.
Why Staying Focused in Trading Matters
Reaching your trading goals is the ultimate objective, but many traders encounter obstacles due to emotional fluctuations. Choosing the right trading path is vital, as the decisions you make are crucial, especially when emotions run high after a win.
This lesson delves into not just technical analysis but the entire spectrum of trading, highlighting the essential aspects of trading psychology and money management. For beginners, it’s important to absorb these foundational insights to build a solid trading career.
Staying committed to your trading system and continuously improving your strategies ensures sustainable success and minimizes the risks associated with emotional trading decisions.
Conclusion: Embrace Emotional Awareness for Trading Success
Emotional Awareness is more than just recognizing your emotions—it’s about managing them effectively to enhance your trading performance. By staying emotionally aware, you empower yourself to navigate the complexities of all financial markets with confidence and resilience.
In Lesson 6, we’ve explored the importance of staying emotionally aware, the impact of emotions on trading decisions, and strategies to maintain emotional control. These elements are essential for building a strong foundation and achieving consistent profitability across all financial markets, whether you’re a swing trader or a day trader.
Action Steps:
Reflect on Your Emotions:
Assess how your emotions influence your trading decisions. Identify triggers that lead to impulsive actions and work on managing them.
Develop a Comprehensive Trading Plan:
Create a detailed trading plan that outlines your strategies, risk management techniques, and criteria for entering and exiting trades. Ensure that this plan emphasizes emotional control and disciplined execution.
Implement Robust Risk Management:
Protect your capital by setting appropriate stop-loss orders, limiting trade sizes, and diversifying your portfolio across different financial instruments.
Maintain a Trading Journal:
Document every trade to gain insights into your trading behavior and identify patterns that need improvement. Reflect on your trades to reinforce emotional awareness and disciplined strategies.
Practice Emotional Control Techniques:
Incorporate mindfulness practices, meditation, or journaling into your daily routine to manage stress and maintain emotional equilibrium.
Engage with the Trading Community:
Join forums, attend webinars, or participate in trading groups to share experiences and gain support from fellow emotionally aware traders.
Trust in Your System:
Have confidence in your trading system. Understand that managing emotions is a continuous process that contributes to long-term profitability.
Ready to take the next step?
Continue your journey by enrolling in Lesson 7: Emotional Awareness continuation, where we will develop even further this subject so that you’ll learn how to enhance your trading performance across all financial markets.
SPX Key $ Levels | 70%+ Accuracy! | WednesdayNew price targets for Sep 25 using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy.
Topics:
- Today's Targets
Overall we use stats and data pulled from a wide array of TradingView indicators and scripts so that I can have as much data as possible - even if it's unstructured or uncorrelated data. I then use AI and SOP's to systematically calculate a weekly and daily framework. My predictions are never 100% but ALL of them are mathematically proven to be 70%+ accurate historically or I wouldn't use them.
Most indicators I use on my Data Dashboard chart has the stats in their associated boxes that I show during the recording if you'd like to verify yourself.
Please leave me feedback as I am new to creating content and would like to improve.
Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade.
Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
RTH ES Price Action REview 9-24-24Going over the DAys price action ES reflecting back on how we could have traded better and where the clues were that the market was leaving us. always easier in hindsight but no Reflection = No Growth = No Wisdom. Pain + Reflection = Wisdom
Cautiously moving higherThe S&P 500 on Tuesday cautiously moved higher. Buyers are still present but the price action implies a market that is apprehensive but the expectation is follow-through to the upside.
ES Inverse Head & ShouldersWe have a potential inverse head and shoulders here on ES. It closed just off all time highs and near today's premarket high. In addition we have the upper trendline from its ascending wedge. Lots of resistance around here, but lately all resistances have been getting broken. New ATH today for the S&P. I'm still pretty suspicious because of the VX activity, but if we do get the breakout I'll probably try some longs on a retest. It would be a blue sky setup at that point.
To the downside, we have the lower end of the wedge and the neckline around 5775. If we end up breaking the wedge down I'd just be looking to take profits on shorts as we test previous lows. So far dips have been short lived so it's important to take your money on puts when you get it until we start trending down. Bulls are in full control right now, we'll see if they push us to another ATH this week or not.
