Full ES/SPX trading plan for Sept 20thPlan For Friday:
• Supports:
5775, 5769, 5765 (major), 5758, 5754 (major), 5746, 5737-40 (major), 5730, 5721 (major), 5715, 5711 (major), 5702 (major), 5690, 5685 (major), 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5659, 5646 (major).
• Levels i would bid Direct:
• I’m still trailing my 10% long runner from 5685, which is now up over 100 points from 24 hours ago, following a 322-point rally from last week’s lows. Bulls remain in full control, with no signs of losing key support levels yet.
• However, this is my least favorite market configuration to trade. After such a significant rally, setups become scarce, and both longs and shorts carry elevated risks (rug pull for longs, and trying to short strong uptrends is equally risky).
• Tomorrow, 5765 is the first key level. It was tested multiple times today and is no longer fresh, but it could still offer a bid opportunity if the reaction is favorable. If the price is knifing down, wait for 5754 and a potential recovery.
• Any significant drop will likely see multiple supports lost, so be cautious with longs under key levels like 5763. Watch for a pullback to 5738-40, and if we pop above 42-43, this might offer a setup for longs.
• In a quick selloff, 5711 or 5702 could present knife catch opportunities, especially if volume supports the recovery at those levels. Without strong buying volume, expect fakeouts at these major supports.
• Resistances:
5782 (major), 5796, 5803-05 (major), 5813, 5824 (major), 5836, 5842 (major), 5850 (major), 5856, 5862-65 (major), 5872, 5880, 5887, 5897, 5906, 5915-20 (major), 5931, 5937 (major).
• I don’t short strength in ES, especially in such strong uptrends. If you’re looking to fade strength, 5803-05 or 5850 could offer potential reactions, but it’s a high-risk strategy.
• Bull Case for Tomorrow:
• In the short term, bulls need to defend 5765. A consolidation or flag pattern between 5765 and 5796 could unfold, allowing ES to target 5805, 5825, and eventually 5862-65.
• After such a large rally, it’s crucial that ES holds 5711 or 5702 on any pullbacks. Below 5702, we could see a move back to 5675.
• Volume will be key—continued upside needs increasing buying volume to support further moves, especially through major resistances like 5805 and 5850.
• Bear Case for Tomorrow:
• The bear case starts if 5765 fails. This could trigger a short-term dip, but breakdown trades are inherently risky with low win rates.
• I’d need to see ES first test 5763 and or put in a failed breakdown to the 5754 level first. After this plays out, one could place a short trigger below wherever the structure is. It should be slightly underneath any noise. It may be somethign like 5750 but could be higher.
• As always, approach breakdown trades cautiously, especially without volume confirming the move. These setups are tricky and can easily trap traders.
• Summary for Tomorrow:
• Bulls are still in control, but this staggering rally could end anytime. Until 5765 is lost, I’m deferring to the trend, expecting a range between 5765 and 5796, with upside targets of 5805, 5825, and 5863-65.
• If 5765 fails, we could see a backtest of previous breakout points from yesterday. Volume will be crucial—watch for volume increases at major levels to confirm further moves, or risk a rug pull if buying volume doesn’t support the trend.
