11/15/24. ES results for dayFinal ES view after sell stops hit. All 3 stops entered, first target hit. Looking for additional targets (below) next week
ES1! trade ideas
S&P 500: Reached forecasted area!It finally sold off to original forecasted area at around 5900!
And went further down a little more...
Which means we should see more weakness next week.
Also, on the 1H chart, there was a H&S pattern that played out nicely!
But since price has already reached some kind of support, it should take a breather.
So if you want to take short term LONG trades, then look for chart reversal patterns at the 5min (inverted H&S, double/ triple botton, etc..)
Watch out for the down trendline. If it holds, then it should go down further. We can assess again next week on the levels.
ES WEEK 11/11/24Trying to keep this as simple as possible.
Once price breaks outside of the Blue range, watch for possible retest of broken level and be ready to long or short into the YELLOW ranges.
Price may exceed YELLOW range targets, but it’s at least a strong help to make profit 🎯🫡.
*LEVELS ARE NOT RANDOM OR BASED OFF EMOTION OR PERSONAL BIAS. BACKTESTED WITH THOROUGH RESEARCH WITH OVER 90% ACCURACY....HENCE WHY MOVE WILL MOST LIKELY BE GREATER THAN ESTIMATED.*
20241115 ESThere is nice NWOG to the downside below the 4h+OB level. I anticipate one more ss raid and reversal upside later for the TGIF profile. This is an ideal scenario. 9.30 RTH start with ORG Friday will provide more cues.
ES levels and Targets Nov 15thYesterday, shorts finally triggered in ES by breaking down a two-day flag. As mentioned, losing Wednesday’s low opened the door to 5972, 5950. We hit 5950 and dropped further overnight.
As of now: 5958=resistance, approaching. Unless reclaimed (relief pop to 5972), the selloff likely continues to 5936, 5928.
11/15/24. ES hourly chart. Daily POIPoints of interest; market currently neutral!! Look for breakout.
Buy stop: 5957 and 5979.50. TGT: 6015 then 6062
Sell stops: 5937.31, 5922.94, and 5909.
Target for shorts: 5889 then 5847. if 5847 fails, look for significant drop to TGT 3 point (not shown)
ES_F Daily LONGER Term OutlookThis is a Daily chart I have been tracking for some time using HTF Balance Ranges and Structure, it may or not play out and if it does then I would think this back fill/correction can take a long time to play out, I would say over a year+ so this is not for day trading or short term swing trading but it is something to possibly keep in mind and help track our movement with IF THEN statements and potential targets lower. 4800 area is something I have been tracking for a while that is an area to me that start our whole move which brought us here and I would not be surprised if we tried to back fill at least most of the way towards it. Again this can take a long time to play out but at least something to refer to in order to manage expectations for new highs and areas of interest for the market.
Not much else to say I tried to make notes on the chart it self so its easier to track.
For stability in the market we would need to not get back under 5820s - 5750/20s Areas and build bases over it then get back over 5990 - 6000 to think new highs, until then we could keep building supply and moving it to lower targets.
For Day Trading refer to Weekly Day Trading Plans.
ES price Action REview PPI 11-14-24Going over the PPI day and reflecting on the days price action. we have to listen to ourselves and listen to what the market is saying. just because our coaches and other traders are buying nonstop doesnt mean we have to buy. listen to the market and take it a few bars at a time. we are risk managers and our goal everyday is to be green. not become millionaires.
SPX Risk-On Rally To Continue?Long side impetus flooded Markets on economic hopes via election results.
Since then, we have seen a slight fall on Risk Off Sentiment and outflows on the USD, after some FED comments last night.
Overall Market sentiment remains reasonably stable and may the case traders temporarily feel the last move was overpriced.
Awaiting retail sales. Anything stronger may bring cause for further rallies.
Sizing - Would never take any major longs on SZ1. Further falls needed for anything significant.
Regular re-shorts at highs applicable.
Can sellers maintain control to the downsideSellers continued to press the S&P 500 lower on Thursday. Can sellers maintain control to the downside as we go into the weekend. Watch out for a bounce from Friday lows.
ES Major Trend SupportES is threatening to break below the uptrend from early August. It has been respecting this trend pretty well except for the fakeout below in late October. I expect a bounce here, but it's worth noting today was the first close below 6k since ES broke above it. It needs reclaim quickly and hold this uptrend, otherwise we could see another leg down to the 5900 area.
2024-11-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Bears moving it lower but barely. Every low was followed by 7-10 point pullback. For tomorrow I can see the following, 5909 is the daily 20ema and the breakout retest is at 5924. Those could be potential targets if the bears are strong and keep the market below 6000. Above 6000 I think many bears will give up and market could retry 6030 or higher. On the daily chart we have a two legged pullback and bulls are free to melt again. Still heavily favoring the bulls since the selling is so weak.
comment : Close below 6000 was good for the bears but does the 1h chart look bearish to you? Look at the daily chart and see how insignificant this move down is. Bears would need a big acceleration down and keep the market below the 5m 20ema for couple of hours and 100+ points. This will likely be a minor pullback which the bulls buy tomorrow. Be prepared for a nasty short squeeze tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we close above 6060 but consider me dumbfounded if we close the week below 5950.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5900 - 6100
bull case: Bulls want to close the week green and print another buy signal going into next week. Most bears will likely cover above 6000 and try again around 6015, which was the big magnet for the entire week and it will likely be for tomorrow as well. Above 6035 we see a complete give up by bears until 6053. Everything is in place for a big move tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5960.
bear case: Bears closed below 6000. That’s the only thing they have going for them. Can they get down to the breakout price 5924 and daily 20ema around 5911? I highly doubt it. For that to happen the market would have to stay below 6000 and trap many bulls. Even a hot ppi print today could not move the market much and we had two sided trading all day. In all fairness, we have a very clear bull channel on the daily chart, with 2 upper trend lines, one around the ath 6053 and the other currently runs through 6180. I think 6180 is currently much more likely than touching the lower trend line at 5760.
Invalidation is above 6001.
short term: Bullish. Want to see a 2%+ up move tomorrow and squeeze further. Below 5950 we will print 5920 or 5900.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
Update 2024-11-14: Blow-off top happening right now. Got measured move targets above 6150 or higher. Santa came early, so don’t expect him to come around again this year.
current swing trade : Nope
trade of the day: Selling the open was decent I guess. Market looks much more bearish on the 1h tf than it was. Much two sided trading with better end for the bears. I don’t think selling 6000 was a good trade, despite going down to 5964.
Es levels and targets Nov14thAfter last week’s 330-point rally, ES has been following its usual routine after a big move: consolidation, forming a flag. Resistance/target sits at 6028-32, marking yesterday’s highs, and 6009 support held overnight. Don’t overtrade.
As of now: 6009=support. This level keeps 6032, 6038, and ATHs in play. Breakdown only kicks in if 5996-98 fails.
ES Overnight Price action review 11-14-24 PPI Going over Price action Overnight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we plan on trading the day. no A+ setup no trade Thursday. we do have PPI today but not as big a deal as CPI. or close.
SPY Day Trading Using @mwrightinc Indicators Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime. In this video, I explain how I use 4 free TradingView indicators to identify entries on SPY.
There is a lot of information out there about creating support and resistance zones. But, drawing reliable ones only comes with experience. In my 3 years of options trading and indicator building, I've found a few patterns that seem to work pretty reliably with SPY.
Order blocks, and SPY price levels at $2.50 increments, are 2 of the most predictable. To capture price movements based on these, I explain how I use the QQQ and SPY Price Levels and Magic Order Blocks indicators with SPY options and /MES futures trading.
Additionally, volume weighted average price (VWAP), plays an important role every day because institutional (large) investors commonly use it for entries and exits. It is a great gauge of daily trends. ATR bands (also known as Keltner Channels) can also provide an at-a-glance look at what can be expected of price action in the near future.
To monitor these, I explain how I use the ATR Bands (Keltner Channels) SRSI and Wick Signals and Multi VWAP indicators. Specifically, how they were used on the 11/13/2024 Trading day.
All of the indicators are free and open source, and were built with the goal of making everyone a better trader. I hope you find the content useful.
- Mo
AMP Futures - How to create order presets.In this idea we will show you how to create order presets using the Tradingview platform.
S&P 500: As forecasted, price is in a range!Likely going to be the same again i.e. range with bearish bias for tomorrow.
There's the Core CPI news at 8:30AM EST, so do take note of that. It might change the market's sentiment.
I'm still leaning towards price heading down to the 5900 support zone, but we shall see.
Sitting on the sidelinesThe structure in the daily chart of the S&P 500 implies a market sitting on the sideline as it awaits the PPI numbers being released on Thursday. This is a balanced formation and the bias is for move higher. Ideally you would want to close above 6070 if there is an enthusiastic response from buyers.
ES price Action review RTH 11-13-24 CPI Going over the price action from the CPI report and reflecting on how we could have traded better and how price action resolved from our plan. do your nightly work see you guys in the morning.
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov 13thYesterday, ES saw its first pullback after last week’s 330-point rally. We got a dip to 5986.75, bouncing up 40 points from there. With CPI on deck in 15 mins, it’s time to size down.
Plan for now: Key supports at 6002 (weak) and 5988. A reclaim of 6009 opens up targets at 6019 and 6032-33. If 5988 breaks, look for an initial dip to 5972.
ESPrice tagged upper trend monday...
I highlighted last 2 times price went this overbought and tagged uppertrend.
The first tag was after the August sell off. We reached the uppertrend and chopped for 2 weeks before dumping
The second tag was mid Sept, we again chopped for 2 weeks but afterwards we bounced off the 20sma and grinded up another 2% or 90 points.
So here we are now the pullback has been miniscule compared to the run up so I'd say we are in a chop phase
So we either a chopped towards the 20sma around 5900 and bounce or
Money flow is starting to dip low on the hourly which leads me to believe we will reclaim the highs again this week
Be honest with you, I don't see a 10% drop coming till after the elections or by some unforseen catalyst.
NASDAQ:NVDA earnings next week will have more of an impact on the indexes than CPI and PPI combined 😆
So my analysis is ,
Overbought
Not bearish
Seasonality strong..
Market will look for any reason (News) to buy dip.
Choppy (1% range) for another week
11-12-24 RTH ES price action review and Overnight session 11-13going over yesterday's price action RTH ES and reviewing the overnight session looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and our plan for the day. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong and size down today. only A+ trade setups. thats it.
Profit-taking?Is the selling action on Tuesday in the S&P 500 representing buyers selling to take profits or are new sellers entering the market to drive prices lower before the CPI numbers on Wednesday. The overall structure has a bullish bias with a neutral setting.
