Get started
S&P 500 E-mini FuturesS&P 500 E-mini FuturesS&P 500 E-mini Futures

S&P 500 E-mini Futures

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Forward curve Seasonals Contracts Options

ES1! trade ideas

Bullish WeekMarket Maker Buy Model still in play. I will be looking for a perfect moment to enter longs. This will either be after sweep on 4H or once we start pushing through the FVG marked on the chart. I want break above the 4h OB (2 STDV). If we break above, it will have to retrace back to it (second possible entry) and then distribute more to the upside. If this currently forming 2AM 4H Candle sweeps 10PM 4H Candle and closes back in the range, it will be ideal. I wouldn't want the push below the breaker.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by dekatrades
April 25, 2025 - Trump’s Tango, Tech, and Insider DramaHello everyone, it’s April 25, 2025. We’re closing in on Trump’s 100-day mark back in the White House, and if there’s one word to sum up his impact on markets: chaos. With 137 executive orders signed already, he’s turned global markets into a high-stakes rollercoaster though this week saw signs of recovery, confidence remains fragile, and volatility is still running the show. The main trigger? You guessed it: Trump and his tariff diplomacy. After weeks of U-turns, threats, and NYSE:TWTR meltdowns, he’s finally announced that talks with China have begun. That was enough to send the AMEX:SPY up 2%, pull the CME_MINI:NQ1! out of correction territory (+2.74%), and ignite a 5.63% jump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, even though it’s still miles below its all-time high. OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting at $3,332, BLACKBULL:WTI hovers around $63.21, and INDEX:BTCUSD has skyrocketed to $93,200. Not bad for a week that started in total disarray. Now here’s where things get fishy: US indices started climbing before Trump’s announcement—classic “somebody knew something.” Insider trading? Just your average Thursday. And while Trump claims talks are underway, the Chinese side played coy, denying any ongoing negotiations. Either someone’s lying, or the talks are happening over dim sum in DC. Beyond geopolitics, NASDAQ:GOOG crushed earnings expectations and added a juicy dividend and GETTEX:70B in buybacks, exploding 6% after-hours. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:INTC flopped—flat profits, poor outlook, and a CEO trying to turn cost-cutting into a growth story. The market wasn’t buying it: down 5.7% after-hours. NYSE:NOW , though, is living its best life. Strong results, AI momentum, and federal contracts boosted shares 15%. Other names like NASDAQ:PEP , NYSE:PG , and NASDAQ:AAL warned on the future thanks to—you guessed it—political and economic uncertainty. On the macro front, ECONOMICS:USIJC (US jobless claims) ticked higher, inflation seems to be cooling, and if next week’s PCE and employment data confirm the slowdown, the Fed might just blink and cut rates in May. Market hopes are pinned on Powell holding steady—unless, of course, Trump decides to live-tweet through it. Futures are up 0.37% ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) this morning, signaling optimism—possibly misplaced—in Trump’s “friendly” overtures toward China. Let’s just say we’re one golf game away from another market tantrum. Enjoy your weekend, stay alert, and cross your fingers for a quiet Sunday tweet-wise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SmartApingAI
04/28 Weekly GEX AnalysisDETAILED IMAGE: Here’s what the charts and indicators are showing right now until Friday. We are approaching a key breakout zone. 🐂 🟢 IF the market breaks above the white bearish daily trendline, the next bullish target could be between 5515–5680. 🟦 ⚖️ The chop area is between 5435–5515. Expect more back-and-forth moves here if the breakout fails. 🐻🔴 Watch out: if the price drops below 5435 or 5425, there’s little support left. This could trigger a sharp sell-off ("Bearish Armageddon" scenario). GEX profiles remain positive 🟢 across all near expirations — for now — suggesting that underlying support still exists, but we need to monitor any changes closely. IVRank is still relatively high (30.9), meaning options are priced with a decent amount of implied volatility. 🟢Short-term sentiment is currently bullish, with some speculative activity picking up. This suggests that traders are expecting less volatility over the next month compared to what we saw in the past week. However, if we look at institutional positions focused on longer-term expirations (especially beyond 30 days on SPX/AM maturities), the picture remains bearish 🔴 or at least highly volatile. These players are still strongly hedging against downside risks. This confirms the broader point: Even though price action managed to recover to pre-tariff-announcement levels — with very low trading volume — we’re not out of the woods yet. Until we can break and hold above the key resistance bearish trend with HIGH BUY VOLUME (aka. momentum), we shouldn't expect a strong, stable GEX profile across all expirations like we had in the past.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by TanukiTrade
Bullish Price Delivery on MESIn this week's analysis of the ES futures contract, it still looks reasonable to expect bullish price action. Given the price delivery over the past few weeks, it appears that large institutions are continuing to push the market higher — a strong signal to maintain a bullish bias! Key levels I'm watching: Bullish target: 5,590 (with potential for even higher moves) Support zones: First support around 5,497 Stronger support around 5,447 in a worst-case scenario While it's important to recognize that we may be approaching a "high" within the larger downtrend, from a short-term perspective (this week), I expect these support levels to hold and for bullish momentum to continue. Of course, as with all speculation, we’ll monitor closely and react accordingly — always studying price action one candlestick at a time!
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by MarketsByLee_
ES Futures: Upcoming Mag 7 Earnings and NFP Report This week, although there was not much market-moving macro newsflow over the weekend, we are approaching month-end. In addition, several key catalysts are on the horizon, including earnings from the Magnificent 7 and the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which typically arrives on the first Friday of the month. The Federal Reserve is currently in its blackout period ahead of the interest rate decision scheduled for May 7th, 2025. As part of our process, we will be reviewing technical levels and drawing a plan based on current market structure. ES futures are currently trading above the March 2025 lows. A “death cross” — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average on the daily timeframe — was recently observed. This pattern is commonly touted by analysts as a bear market indicator. However, in a macro-driven environment, this could potentially be a false signal. Key Levels: • mCVAL: 5622 • Upper Neutral Zone: 5620 -5585 • March 2025 Low: 5533.75 • 2022 CVAH: 5384.75 • Lower Neutral Zone: 5171.75 -5150.75 Our scenarios are as follows: Scenario 1: Range-bound price action A P-shaped micro composite profile suggests resistance at our neutral zone. It is labeled neutral because the price is trading above the March 2025 lows. However, if the level above acts as resistance, we expect further range-bound price action. Markets may trade below the mCVAL for further price discovery and potentially establish a new short-term range, with the 2024 lows acting as downside support. Scenario 2: Mag 7 and NFP as bullish catalysts Four of the Magnificent 7 companies are reporting earnings this week. The Mag 7 collectively represent around one-third of the S&P 500 index by market capitalization. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to report on Wednesday after the close, while Amazon and Apple report on Thursday after the close. On Friday, the NFP data will be released. This could serve as a fundamentally net-positive catalyst for U.S. markets, especially in light of recent shocks that have weakened sentiment. In this scenario, we will be closely watching our neutral zone and mCVAL as potential areas to initiate long trades. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: Blue Zones: Neutral zones. C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) VAL: Value Area Low VAH: Value Area High VP: Volume Profile CME_MINI:ES1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Weekly Market Forecast: Buy Stocks! Sell Oil! Buy Gold!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Oil, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of April 28 - May 2nd. Markets are looking tradeable again. The indices look bullish, creating +FVGs as they move higher. Oil has corrected a bearish impulse, so it could be poised to move lower from the Daily and Weekly -FVG. Gold took a breather last week and could move higher from the Weekly +FVG it just created. Let's go! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
Bulls Need a Win Here—5,148 Is Key SupportMarket Overview: Welcome to today’s market overview. We’ll break down the current trends, price movement, and where we are on the Fibonacci roadmap. This helps us frame the market’s current path and the key levels that may trigger a shift in momentum. Despite a soft start to the week, market sentiment is adjusting to expectations around upcoming economic data. Investors are watching for fresh signals on inflation and interest rates, with earnings season underway and more heavyweight tech names reporting soon. After a volatile couple of weeks, the S&P 500 appears to be stabilizing—but it’s not out of the woods yet. Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis Trend Condition: Bullish Trends: 6 Bearish Trends: 8 Overview: The market is leaning slightly bearish, with 8 trend lines pointing lower and 6 still showing bullish momentum. This split reflects some indecision after a strong downtrend, suggesting the market could be attempting to stabilize but hasn’t flipped the trend yet. Price Action and Momentum Zones Current Price and Change: Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,294.25, down by 32.25 points or -0.61%. Market Behavior: Price dipped again this week but held just above recent support levels. It’s not a sharp breakdown, but momentum remains heavy, and buyers haven’t stepped in with strength yet. Momentum Zones: Price is hovering just above the 38.2% Fib retracement, in the middle of the corrective zone. In a bearish context, this area acts as a supply zone—any bounce here could still be countertrend unless buyers regain control above 5,537. Fib Retracement Levels Current Position Relative to Levels: The market is currently just above the 38.2% retracement level. Key Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% → 5,537.68 38.2% → 5,148.66 50.0% → 4,834.25 61.8% → 4,519.84 Analysis: Hovering above the 38.2% level suggests the market is still trying to find its footing after the recent drop. If buyers can hold this zone, it could lead to a short-term rebound—but failure here may open the door to deeper support around 4,834. Overall Market Interpretation This week’s move hasn’t changed the broader outlook much. The trend remains under pressure, but the fact that support is holding gives bulls a chance to reset the tone. If the market can string together a few sessions above this zone, we could see a shift—but for now, the bias remains cautious. Summary The S&P 500 Futures are showing weakness early in the week. The broader trend remains bearish, and the 38.2% Fibonacci level is acting as support for now. This zone could determine whether a recovery builds or if sellers press further. Watch price action closely next week—this is a decision zone.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traderspro_charts
ES UpdateNot many of my followers trade futures, but in case I don't have time to post an update before work tomorrow: 1) Another open gap down. I don't think it fills until RSI hits oversold and we get a bounce. 2) Dollar index broke support, but wouldn't surprise me if it did a backtest (maybe) 3) Gold trying to "break out" yet again, but a dollar backtest will look like another failed breakout (maybe) 4) Lots of earnings this week including TSLA Tues. I established a long position in gold, but I intend to hold it for a while. Not my usual short term trade. No desire to go long on stocks during earnings season when every company is going to be talking about tariff impacts.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
10
S&P 500 E-mini Futures – Bearish Setup Ahead?Price recently tapped into a key resistance zone where an imbalance was filled by a wick, showing signs of potential exhaustion. We could see a liquidity grab above before a significant move down toward the 5,150 level. Watch for a reaction in the highlighted resistance area – this could be the beginning of a bearish reversal. Major support sits lower, where a larger move might find footing. 🔹 Resistance tested 🔹 Imbalance filled 🔹 Bearish reaction anticipated 🔹 Targeting the 5,150 zone Let me know your thoughts – do you see the same setup?
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by wdstrades
7
Has the S&P 500 bottomed out?A global stock market crash under pressure from the trade war Since its all-time high last February, the S&P 500 has lost 20%, dragging all global equity markets into a general sell-off. This downward movement concerns not only the United States, but also the MSCI World index, confirming that a global aversion to risk has taken place. And unlike other periods of tension, this time there were no safe havens, except perhaps gold and certain bond segments. All sectors, even defensive ones, were affected. The source of this intense pressure on the markets? The trade war waged by the Trump administration against over 70 countries, with China leading the retaliatory tariffs. This highly conflicted geopolitical context has rekindled fears of a global economic slowdown, hence the massive flight to liquidity. The market is hoping for a PIVOT: but which one? Faced with this situation, only one thing can reverse the trend: a PIVOT. In other words, a major policy change capable of reversing the current dynamics of the financial markets. Two types of pivot are possible in the spring of 2025: that of the Federal Reserve (the FED) or that of the Trump administration. The FED's pivot is a monetary reversal. This would involve the central bank lowering interest rates again and halting the reduction of its balance sheet - in other words, injecting more liquidity into the system. In fact, the FED already slowed the reduction of its balance sheet in April, a sign that it may be getting ready to move. Two key dates to watch: May 7 and June 18, the next monetary policy decisions. But this pivot will depend on two essential conditions: the evolution of inflation and the unemployment rate. If these two variables warrant emergency support, the Fed could initiate the resumption of the federal funds rate cut. Trump's pivot: tax and trade diplomacy The other scenario is the Trump pivot. It rests on two pillars: trade diplomacy and fiscal policy. On the trade side, it would involve a return to the negotiating table, with the signing of agreements that would put an end to the spiral of customs sanctions. On the tax side, Trump continues to deploy a very marked pro-business strategy. Already, his first term (2017-2021) had been marked by a massive reduction in corporate taxes (from 35% to 21%) and tax cuts for households via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. For this second term, starting in January 2025, Trump proposes to go even further with his “One Big Beautiful Bill” project: perpetuate the 2017 cuts, abolish taxes on tips, overtime, even pensions. Above all, Trump is considering a 15% corporate tax cut, especially for industries that produce in the United States. This would be a major fiscal shock, which could boost growth expectations and thus... the equity markets. Spring 2025 is a critical time window. The market can no longer afford to navigate uncertainty without a strong signal. Either the Fed will change its tone, or Trump will bend his economic and trade line. A pivot is essential if the S&P 500 is to validate a major market low. In terms of technical analysis of the financial markets, the S&P 500 index thus corrected by 20% before recovering last week close to the major technical support of 4800 points. This major chartist support (see the chart of the S&P 500 future contract attached to this analysis) corresponds to the peak of the equity market at the end of 2021 and the starting point of the bear market in 2022, against the backdrop at the time of the Central Banks' commitment to fighting inflation. This 4800-point level represents the guarantee of the uptrend initiated at the end of 2022. Note that this horizontal support is underpinned by a graphic uptrend line that joins all major market lows since the stock market shock of the health crisis. Another factor reinforcing the strength of this support is the quantitative aspect, which describes an extreme oversold technical situation conducive to a low point. The percentage of S&P 500 shares above the 50-day moving average has fallen below 10%, a threshold that has seen market stabilizations for over 15 years. The S&P 500 chart and the quantitative chart are attached to this analysis. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote
Solid Q1 Earnings amid Tariff Turbulence Spike S&P500 VolatilityAs Q1 earnings roll in, Wall Street is digesting a rare divergence: strong fundamentals across much of corporate America paired with deepening investor anxiety. While companies are largely beating expectations, looming tariff shocks and tech sector fragility are suppressing sentiment—and returns. Tactical positioning is crucial at times like this. This paper describes the outlook for the coming earnings season and posits options strategies that astute portfolio managers can deploy to generate solid yield with fixed downside. Resilient Earnings Growth in the Current Season The Q1 2025 earnings season is underway, and early results show resilient growth despite an unsettled backdrop. According to a Factset report , with about 12% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far, 71% have beaten earnings estimates and 61% have topped revenue forecasts. Blended earnings are tracking about +7.2% year-over-year, on pace for a seventh-straight quarter of growth. However, only two sectors have seen improved earnings outlook since the quarter began (led by Financials), while most others have faced modest downgrades. Forward guidance is also skewing cautious – roughly 59% of S&P companies issuing full-year EPS forecasts have guided below prior consensus, reflecting corporate wariness amid macro uncertainty. Source: Factset as of 17/April Financials Front-Load the Upside The first wave of reports was dominated by major banks, which largely delivered strong profits and upside surprises. Volatile markets proved a boon to trading desks: JPMorgan’s equities trading revenue surged 48% to a record $3.8 billion, and Bank of America’s stock traders hauled in a record $2.2 billion as clients repositioned portfolios around tariff news. Source: Factset as of 17/April These tailwinds – along with still-solid net interest income – helped lenders like JPMorgan and Citigroup post double-digit profit growth (JPM’s Q1 earnings up 9% to $5.07/share; Citi’s up 21% to $1.96). FactSet notes that positive surprises from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and peers have boosted the Financials sector’s blended earnings growth rate to 6.1% (from 2.6% as of March 31), making it a key contributor to the S&P 500’s overall gains. Even so, bank executives struck a wary tone. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that “considerable turbulence” from geopolitics and trade tensions is weighing on client sentiment. Wells Fargo likewise warned that U.S. tariffs could slow the economy and trimmed its full-year net interest income outlook to the low end of its range. Across Wall Street, management teams indicated they are shoring up reserves and bracing for potential credit headwinds if import levies drive up inflation or dent growth. Tech Titans Under Scrutiny Attention now turns to the yet-to-report mega-cap tech firms, which face a very different set of challenges. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet – collectively heavyweights in the index – have been battered by the escalating trade war, eroding some of their premium valuations. Apple’s share price plunged over 20% in early April on fears that new tariffs could jack up the cost of an iPhone to nearly $2,300, underscoring these companies’ exposure to global supply chains. The tech sector’s forward P/E remains about 23 (well above the market’s 19), leaving little room for error if earnings guidance disappoints. With Washington’s tariff barrage and retaliatory threats casting a long shadow, Big Tech finds itself on the front line of the global trade war, suddenly vulnerable on multiple fronts. Any cautious outlook from these giants – which account for an outsized share of S&P 500 profits – could heavily sway overall forward earnings sentiment. Market Context and Reaction Despite solid Q1 fundamentals, equity markets have been whipsawed by macro headlines. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory, falling roughly 10% since the start of April and about 14% below its February peak, as investors de-rated stocks in anticipation of tariff fallout and a potential economic slowdown. Consumer inflation expectations have skyrocketed with risk delaying rate cuts in the near-term. This pullback has tempered valuations somewhat – the index’s forward P/E has eased to ~19 (down from ~20 at quarter-end) – even though consensus earnings estimate for 2025 have only inched down. Notably, the high-flying “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks that led last year’s rally are all sharply lower year-to-date (Alphabet –20%, Tesla –40%), a stark reversal that has dented market breadth and sentiment. Source: Factset as of 17/April Investors are rewarding only the strong earnings winners: for instance, Bank of America’s stock jumped over 4% after its earnings beat, and JPMorgan rose 3% on its results. Such reactions imply the market is discriminating – strong execution is being acknowledged even as the broader mood remains cautious. Source: Factset as of 17/April Hypothetical Trade Setup Solid corporate performance is offset by significant macro risks, warranting a nimble and selective approach. While recent positive earnings may provide a short-term boost, downbeat sentiment and concerns over future tech earnings could limit gains. In this uncertain environment, investors may adopt a fundamentally driven view that the S&P 500 could rise in the near term due to strong earnings. However, the upside appears limited, supporting the case for a bullish call spread. Earnings release dates for the Super 7 With major tech firms set to report earnings in early May, investors can consider the 2nd May MES Friday weekly options. A narrow bull call spread offers a higher probability of profitability. In this hypothetical setup, the long call is at 5,250 and the short call at 5,390, resulting in a breakeven point of 5,312 at expiry. This position requires net premium of USD 315/contract (USD 62.5/index point x 5). The position returns a max profit of USD 385/contract for all strikes > 5,390 and a max loss of USD 315/contract for all strikes < 5,250. This strategy is most successful when the S&P 500 rises slowly. A simulation of this scenario using the CME QuikStrike Strategy Simulator has been provided below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Friday Closeout | TA & Macro Recap + ES1! Game Plan📈 Chart Overview Current Price: 5,312.75 Daily Candle: Slight green candle, suggesting an attempt at recovery or a pause in the recent downtrend. 📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis SMA 9 (thin white): ~5,309.92 – Hugging current price, curling upward. SMA 50 (light blue) : ~5,759.54 – Above current price; Below SMA 200; indicating bearish pressure. (Death Cross) SMA 200 (thick cyan): ~5,890.90 – Above current price; Curling downward; longer-term downtrend signal. Structure: After a heavy decline in early April, price bounced on changing tariff paradigm, but is stalled short of the Prior Swing Support. This could be: A bear flag forming. Or. A basing pattern for a short-term reversal. 📈 RSI (14 Close) Current: 41.48 (37.49 MA) Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weak. A move back above 50 would be bullish. A turndown could indicate further weakness. Recent Bounce: RSI bounced from ~21, indicating the recent lows were oversold. Currently appears to be consolidating. 📈 MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD Line: -132.13 Signal Line: -125.86 Histogram: +6.27 and rising Interpretation: MACD is negative (bearish territory), but the histogram flipped positive, showing momentum may be improving. Bullish crossover is in progress, but at the moment, weak. A potential signal for a short-term upside move. 🎯 Key Levels Resistance: 5,300 (Prior Week Base Levels) to 5,384 (Prior Swing Support) is current price zone of interest Support: Recent low just above 5,000 is critical — a break below should continue the downtrend. 🧨 Volatility Outlook TVC:VIX falls well within the 'Risk off Zone'. TVC:VIX spiked to 52.33 before receding to its current 29.65 📈 Macro/Fundamental Analysis Interpretation: In high TVC:VIX environment, with Tariff, Fiscal, and Political Uncertainty, price action will likely remain mercurial. This is likely to persist into the foreseeable future. TVC:DXY Dollar weakness has continued. Likely causes include: Fed Cut Expectations increasing & Decreasing Demand for US treasuries TVC:US10Y . I expect the weakening dollar to persist. All else qual, a weakening dollar is bullish for asset pricing, though, in the face of expect growth challenges, the effect is negated. I expect US10Y sales to continue to struggle, in the face of inflation risk and rising trade tensions. Bearish Possibilities: Expect continued talk about 'firing' the current fed chair. The market should react poorly to these threats if they intensify or become increasingly probable. Failures on trade talks with major trading partners. Bullish Possibilities: Improved earnings or earnings guidance, though, I expect this is unlikely. Successes on trade talks and deals with major trading partners. Fed Rate cuts - though - i expect this is highly unlikely. Fed QE - thought - i expect this is highly unlikely in the short term, barring an explosion in TVC:US10Y yields. 📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week Thursday - 830AM - Initial Jobless Claims Thursday - 830AM - Durable Goods Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer and Inflation Expectations Notable Earnings Calendar: Verizon NYSE:VZ - Tuesday Lockhead NYSE:LMT - Tuesday Ratheon NYSE:RTX - Tuesday Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA - Tuesday Boeing NYSE:BA - Wednesday Google NASDAQ:GOOG - Thursday Intel NASDAQ:INTC - Thursday Pepsi NASDAQ:PEP - Thursday Proctor and Gamble NYSE:PG - Thursday T-Mobile NASDAQ:TMUS - Thursday 🔍 Summary 🔻 Trend: Bearish below 50- and 200-day SMAs and recent 'Death Cross'. 🧩 Momentum: Turned bullish, with flat to fading strength. 🧠 Tactics: Short Term: Expect Ranging with slight bullish upside. Likely good day trading environment. Medium Term: Dead-cat bounce or Early Reversal ...? Watch for: Daily Close above the local swing high's or Low's If we breakout higher, look for further Daily Rejection at the moving averages (especially SMA 50). If we breakdown lower, look for a retest of the 5000 psychological support, down to, 4832.50.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by WillNixTrading
1
Weekly Market Forecast: Stocks Markets Are Stalled! Patience!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 21 - 25th The Markets are stalled! No bullish follow through from the previous week. Last week failed to break the previous weekly high. This stall out looks consolidative and unclear. Wait for clarity! Let the markets break the high or low of the range convincingly... and trade accordingly. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money