AMP Futures - Study Templates - Tradingview MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to create study templates using the TradingView mobile app.
ES1! trade ideas
Plan For Friday SessionPlan for Friday: supports are 5343, 5338 (major), 5328, 5322, 5308-10 (major), 5306, 5298 (major), 5278 (major), 5268 (major).
Yall should know what I’m going to say here. We had a monster rally today, 160 points. My absolute least favorite time to trader is after a big trend day. Longs are risky - chasing with no pullback after this large of a rally is non sense. Shorts are risky - we are in a squeeze. And the odds of complex, messy chop are high. As a result, tomorrow is capital preservation Friday for me, and I’ll just be taking it light, protecting what I have from this week. From here, 5338-42 is first down. This has been the brick wall resistance all week, and now, for the first time, we are closing above it and its now support. A possible entry could be something like if we test 5328 and recover the zone. Below there, we flush down the levels again, and this may be a sort of macro failed breakout. If so, that means all longs will be very risk and should be done with small size. 5308-10 is first support down. If we are knifing down, one could try it micro sized, or better yet, wait for it to flush and reclaim. Use common sense. Below there we knife down the levels. 5268 would be one spot of interest to watch for a bounce, and if we test it then recover 5280 it is even better. Below there we probably flush down to 5228-33 again, reaction zone, then down to 5186-91, which I would be willing to try one final small long at before we start the next macro leg lower into the 4900s.
Resistances are: 5351 (major), 5362, 5372, 5378 (major), 5388, 5394, 5398 (major), 5409, 5414-16 (major), 5427, 5433, 5439 (major). I am currently long and I won’t be flipping short tomorrow on strength. For those who are looking for spots to try reaction shorts though, 5378 would be one zone, then 5438 would be another. Either could provoke sells.
Buyers case: Bulls did some good work today, holding 5186-91 major support, then recovering the 5338-42 area. We are only a few points above now so its still chance for a trap - we need to take it level to level. Generally though, we remain in a recovery leg since Monday, as long as above that 5186-91 level. Buyers want to defend 5338-42 level now (or if it does fail, quickly flush to something like 5328 and reclaim), and begin working up towards the next major backtest magnet which is now 5438. There are big resistances en route like 5378 any of which can end the leg. I normally give spots to add on strength, but I cannot do so here when are at the highs of day. I can only say that I would see any overnight flagging above 5338-42 and below todays high as being bullish, and favoring continuation.
Sellers case: the real sellers case begins on the fail of 5186-91. Obviously 5186-91 is very far away now, so in order to short there I obviously would not just be blindly shorting below. I’d need to see a strong reaction there or failed breakdown and good final bounce, then I’d consider short 5180ish. On a shorter-term basis, 5269 is also a level I’d consider a breakdown short of. Same drill - I need to see a bounce there and/or failed breakdown first. On the shortest term basis, 5308-10 failure likely provides a good level to level short. Same drill, I need evidence the zone is used up (this zone is already fairly well tested). After this, I’d look short 5304.
In general, Today I was looking for a rally to 5338-42, and we got there and beyond. Post-rally trading is the worst trading, so I will be in capital preservation mode tomorrow. My general lean though is to respect the 5338-42 late day breakout. As long as it holds, we can work up to 5378 next. Decision point there - and if bulls can push through, we likely head all the way to 5414, 5438. If 5338-42 fails, ES has to do more work on the downside as per the above plan.
Price Action Review ES RTH 8-8-24Going over the price action ES looking for clues the market was leaving us and planning our attack for the Overnight Session. always work hard. do all your market work soon as the market closes so we can get on with our lives. do the hard things and freedom will be yours. skip the hard work and you'll be a slave for rest of your life. your choice
A Margin Selling Bottom?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled 5227.50, down 38.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,966.50, down 212.50
Equity markets fell precipitously in the second half of yesterday’s session, finishing at Monday’s intraday low. From yesterday’s high, this was a 3.5% move into the overnight for the E-mini S&P and more than 4.5% for the E-mini NQ. I have noted here and in my short ‘end of day’ videos that although there is a high probability a low area was created Sunday night, we expect continued choppiness this week. For one reason, there is tremendous overhead supply at Friday’s gap settlement, the area in which we failed yesterday. Second, as the market works through a consolidation across this region, there are margin calls carried from as early as Friday. In that case, Friday’s calls were at Day 3 yesterday which means forced liquidation. This explains, at least partly, once the selling started why it did not stop.
Today’s economic calendar brings Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, a number becoming increasingly important, especially after last week’s read hit a cycle high. The read came in better than expected at 233k versus 241k expected, soothing recession worries, but last week’s was revised up 1k to 250k. At noon CT, there is a 30-year Bond auction and it brings an interesting dynamic. With the yield curve steepening although yesterday’s 10-year auction was weak, the yield of the 30s has outperformed the yield of the 10s by about 20bps over the last month. This could be a defining moment for buyers to step in. In such a case, we see it supporting risk assets.
When compared to last Thursday’s reversal, yesterday’s selling was lower in volume. We believe this to support our narrative of a choppy but constructive consolidation. Given additional weakness after the settlement, both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ have ground to make up and a more difficult path in turning positive on the session. Our Pivot and point of balance noted below for each aligns with settlement and will be crucial through the first hour. If we see strength as the afternoon approaches, major three-star resistance in the S&P will become absolutely critical at 5262.50-5266.25, and a move above here will set the indices on a path of repairing just yesterday’s damage. However, a break below major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at 5189-5192.25 is likely to invite additional selling.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5262.50-5266.25***, 5278.75-5279.50**, 5292.25**, 5300.50**, 5319.25-5323***, 5331.75-5334**, 5342-5349.75**, 5354.75-5459.25**, 5366.50-5376****, 5420***, 5432.50-5441.25***
Pivot: 5217.50-5227
Support: 5202.25-5204.25**, 5189-5192.25***, 5146-5161.25***, 5120**, 5092-5102.75***, 5059.75-5078.75*** 4988.25***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 18,147-18,179***, 18,243-18,289***, 18,341-18,382**, 18,438-18,482***, 18,520-18,557****, 18,725-18,738***
Pivot: 17,966-18,016
Support: 17,856-17,893**, 17,711-17,741***, 17,509***, 17,333-17,398****, 17,110-17,180****, 16,826-16,870***
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ES Overnight Price ACtion Review 8-8-24Going over ES price Action Overnight session looking for clues as to what the market wants to do. putting a plan in for the day both bullish and bearish. remember we are risk managers. not philosophers. wait for the setups, execute, then manage risk. that is the way.
Es Levels & Targets Aug 8thExpect more two way volatility today.
As of now: Bounce is underway. 5228 is res, 5211 is support. Staying above keeps 5250-53, 5273+ in play. 5211 fails, retest 5185-91 again
ES / MES/ SPX / SPYMy ES, SPX & SPY charts are "busy" with scalp levels (Using MES)
The current short-term H&S pattern has played out, but it's possible we make a neckline around 5000 for a much larger H&S, similar to what we saw in late 2021 into 2022.
IF we form a neckline at 5000 and create a right shoulder (5400ish), and that neckline is later broken the downside target would be 4300ish.
In theory, H&S target is the same distance between the neckline and head. 2022's neckline to peak to trough was almost 1:1; it did miss by a little. Low was 3843 and in theory, should have hit around 3775 (it needed to go 1.7% lower to hit) but that extremely close.
If the labor market weakens further , and we see a mild recession, this wouldn't be far-fetched.
Expected EPS for 2024 = 245
Using a recession multiple of 17/18x P/E and 5% EPS growth vs the 10-15% expected, earnings would be 257ish.
At 4300, and 257 earnings, the P/E would be 16.7x
Bear Flag or bottom? And, the Japanese Yen Carry Trade...The debate among traders is if this is a real bear flag that's forming and there's another leg down for the indices? Or, if the bottom, had be set by the lows on Monday.
I believe that the lows were established on Monday and the indices are consolidating and will move upward soon. This consolidation period also allows the moving averages to catch up after the fast decline we had experienced.If the selloff is caused by Japanese Yen carry trade then it is a one-time event without much lasting effect. As I mentioned before - most of the Macro trends point to a higher year end - consumption, jobs, liquidity.
Reality maybe settling inReality may be settling in the S&P 500 that it overreacted to the possibility of a recession. With this in mind, be cautious if you're on the short side of this market.
Long S&P 500 setup as bulls absorb big selling volumes S&P 500 E-minis have absorbed plenty of selling over the past few sessions but are yet to take the lows struck on Monday. While that doesn’t mean they won’t, it looks like futures may be settling into a new sideways range between 5350 on the topside and 5154 on the downside. Granted, the latter is only a minor level that was breached in the peak of the market puke on Monday, but the dip was bought aggressively below the level.
While signals on momentum like RSI (14) and MACD point to continued downside risks, sitting near the bottom of the newly established range, a long setup could be on the cards if we see risk-reward of the trade improve. It’s not a high probability setup, so if we’re going to go against the trend, we don’t want to be risking a lot.
Pullbacks towards 5154 offer one entry point, allowing for a stop to be placed below Monday’s low for protection. The trade target would be the top of the range at 5350. Those wishing to get in now could do so with a stop below 5154 for protection. Target would be the same as the preferred setup.
From a fundamental perspective, Thursday’s US jobless claims data may be influential on the trade with a stronger-than-expected outcome likely to ease concerns about the US economic trajectory, and potentially the outlook for corporate earnings.
DS
AMP Futures - Introducing NEW TICK Charts (Beta)In this idea we will demonstrate how to access the NEW TICK charts using Tradingview.
ES Approching weekly treendlineES Apporching long-term trend line, BELOW 100 EMA, and already blew through threw daily trendline and could hit the next ema and trendline support on the weekly.
ES Price ACtion Review 8-7-24Going over the RTH ES price action. reflecting on how we could have played it better and which signals were the ones to trade. looking forward to the Overnight session and how we want to position ourselves.
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150.
Invalidation is below 5090.
bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above.
Invalidation is above 5280.
short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
1/3AWR+ to 1/3ADR- simple 1:4RR !1/3AWR+ was like a resistance and from this level I targeted 1/3ADR- simple bread & butter setup. Just checkout my profile! Every day there is a setup
ES soybean oil8 7 24 Here I made some comparisons between the es and soybean oil. I made my point in the video so there's no need to spend a lot of time on this introduction. I believe the biggest problem Traders have aside from not having enough capital, is that the biggest problem they have is the way they think and their inability to recognize it and make meaningful changes. and because of this inability to change they end up trading to a personal psychology filled with remorse and disappointment and anger and hopelessness...... and they don't know how to change. as I write this introduction it occurs to me that this is not so much different from my efforts over the past year or so to lose weight, to stop eating sugar and most carbohydrates even though it would be good for me. and I still eat sugar and carbohydrates and I have lost weight....... but it reminds me That most of us have our demons and that if we want to improve our lives we have to spend time and acknowledge what the demons are and what we need to do to change. I've never made a business of teaching people about trading for me to make money. but there have been a few people that I've tried to help because they didn't know how to trade or they didn't make money when they trade and I would tell them that they need to study the market and look for Clues and then test their Insight without risking money because the risk of financial loss sabotages the ability of most people to learn and learning takes time and you have to draw the lines if you know what they are on the chart before you start trading.whatever your internal dialogue is like.... I will speak for myself so I don't offend anyone.... I don't understand how I could trade with fear or remorse or anger...or a sense that I had some control....not to change the market but to take a good trade with a small stop and a reasonable reward and that I could relate it to the way other buyers and sellers including the smart money and the retail money.... and do this with a stop that isn't going to make me angry or fearful because I've tested it and have experienced from the past I believe most people start trading to make money. what they really should do in my opinion if they want to trade.... is to learn how to think before they trade.
SPX500 Sentiment Pause - Will Risk Off Return?It is very helpful as a trader to split Market scenarios into two categories; risk on, and risk off.
Risk on environments are times when risk is ON for traders. They want to invest, and take risks. The SPX, for example, is one of these assets as there are some stocks which have higher inherent risk based on their history.
Risk off environments are when we see fear flood in and risk is OFF. Investments that require high risk are taken away and the money is plugged into safe haven assets, like JPY/CHF or cash / fixed income assets.
We have just seen the two be played out in the same couple of weeks. This has stalled on a few words out the fed calming the seas.
However, nothing can stop one bad print coming it and it trashing Markets, nor can the BOJ easily stop their situation with the yen and unwindining.
I would not be surprised if markets turn over again, so be careful on any sizes and entries.
ES Levels & Targets Aug 7thThe top target yesterday for ES was 5238-42. We hit it to the tick, then flushed 100 points. Overnight buyers retested it. 5338-42 backtested Sundays sell, and reclaiming it is very bullish
As of now: currently building a base . 5313, 5298=supports. Staying above keeps 5342 again, 5365+ in play. 5298 fails, dip 5274 once again.
OverNight ES Price Action Review 8-7-24Going over the Overnight session looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. how we want to position for the day.
Waiting for clarity of directionThe structure from the S&P 500 on Tuesday provided that rest day and implies a market waiting for clarity of direction. It needs an excuse to make a move. I also think it's recognizing it overreacted to the possibility of a recession.
ES Price Action REview 8-6-24Going over the ES price action RTH looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. every day there is 5-6 moves the market gives us and its our job to find those and then take ACTION, use our knowledge to take action. knowledge is not for philosophy. talk way less, listen way more. that is the way.
AMP Futures - Order ticket - TradingView MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to execute trades from the order ticket using TradingView mobile app.
ES Bear FlagES nearly filled the gap today from Sunday evening, but rejected before it did. That was also another test of 5300 that briefly overshot before erasing the entire move. This is the second time in the past week where ES and NQ have rallied substantially and then reversed the entire move in 24 hours. The volatility I have been warning about is here and this is the new normal until VX cools off, if it does anytime soon. I'm not sure if it will, but for now I see this action as extremely concerning for bulls.
ES did have a very nice inverse H&S that led to today's rally, but it quickly stalled and failed after it broke 5300. We saw some large orders coming in up there around 5310 and 5300, which I think is significant enough to note. ES has been forming this clean bear flag since opening Sunday night and today it rejected off the top end and came all the way back to the bottom end and closed nearly right on the line. This is critical if bulls can not save it here, ES and NQ are likely to break below the April lows this week if bulls do not step in.
That would just makes things a whole lot worse. As I've said, this is just the beginning. Price will not go straight down, we'll have rallies and short squeezes. However, there is a high probably of continued downside for at least 2-3 months in my opinion. If we break April lows, the next major target is 2023 lows, which seems very far away for most. Price can get there faster than anyone can imagine, be careful out there.
