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ES1! trade ideas

8.18.2024 Weekly Pre-Market Analysis S&PThis is my Weekly Pre-Market Analysis on the S&P> Right now we are going to wait for market structure to form. We saw lower highs and higher lows form on Friday after the last bullish move up. So we do not have a clear direction as to which way if may head. We have a plan for a SHORT position as well as a plan for a LONG position. We just need to watch the LOWS & HIGHS form on the 15 minute chart, before we even think of getting into a trade.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by MoneyDuck_Butch
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday. comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. current market cycle: Trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: From panic to euphoria. Good times. Bulls want a close of the bear gap to 5650 now and if they manage that, no reason we can’t print a new ath. More likely though is that we stay below 5600 and go much more sideways and wait for a new impulse. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are gone it seems. Best they can hope for now is to stay below 5600 and make the market go sideways. If big sellers appear again, first target would be 5500 and then a close below daily ema but that is very low probability as of now. No bigger update this week since parallels to dax are big and I do think it’s best to be neutral here and wait for a pullback and see where that goes. Invalidation is above 5650. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there. → Last Sunday we traded 5370 and now we are at 5578. My upper targets were 5450 and bulls just melted it. Part of outlook was ok because you don’t get bearish at climactic selling lows but this reversal is not anything that is likely to happen after such selling. short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. medium-long term: Same as dax. I wait and let market give more info. Right now it’s max confusion. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed all but the small bear gap.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Combined US Equities Since the last heads up analysis before the bearish pullback, some more new developments came into play, particularly how the equity market turned bullish... 1. Heads up given for RISK ON in the green ellipse. The weekly chart is actually very obvious with a long tail candlestick; 2. The latter part of that week finished with a combination of a long bullish candle, breaking and closing above a resistance trendline; 3. Then continued by another breakout of a range; and 4. This week closed with another colid bullish candle that closed the gap resistance, with another bullish candle to boot. 5. MACD and VolDiv indicators are bullish since the early part of the week. Can easily expect a revisit to the last high of 906.50, but not before a retest of the gap support.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Weekly Morning Star formation on both ES and NQWith better econ data out and morning star formations found on both ES and NQ, I believe we will revisit recent all time highs. NQ will likely reject at 20,000 and potentially bounce the daily 9ema or 4 hour 21ema to break though. Jackson Hole on Friday provides something for investors to look forward to, provided Jerome Powell doesn't shoot the idea in the foot that day. He will likely set the stage for the first round of cuts in Sept. The question is, what does the market price in beforehand? Will it be higher or lower than what he says?
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by AlphaWolf_Trader
ES - Will S&P 500 Join Gold In The Bull Run?There are a few hoops to climb through if i am to speculate all-time highs for next weeks trading although, not impossible. What i am interested in is for ES to peak it's head above buyside @ $5,601, creating a blow-off top before selling off into this weeks price range. $5,574.75 - $5,464.25 daily volume imbalance has sparked my interest as an area in price that smart money could sell their profitable short positions if this bearish bias, bullish narrative plays out.
CME_MINI:ESU2024Short
by LegendSince
ES Supply Short IdeaNice recovery for ES and NQ after last Monday's dump. Straight back up, much like April. I think this could be near a major top, or at least a short term pull back for bulls to take a breather. Either way, the setup is solid. This is a really nice supply zone here and NQ has a similar one. I'd expect the first retest to cause at least one rejection. It got pretty close today but didn't quite touch it. Maybe it hits it overnight and fails or never hits it at all. This is just another short confirmation for the next few months. The supply is right at a major high when ES retested its trend and failed. I think we could easily fail from here or hit supply again first. Doesn't matter much to me, I just want to be short if it stays below and probably long if it breaks above.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AdvancedPlays
Wyckoff Top Melt upI think I know why Buffet sold 50% of apple. Because all the big boys will be selling key levels of this melt up so they don't get caught. Retail will keep driving price. 2 legs, possibly something like 40% each. Maybe first into Powel Fed 9/18, then a pull back, then second leg less vertical than the first, into the election EOY. And then we would get massive flushes of selling as large stake holders dump on retail, let them drive it back up, then dump again. I thought this could happen, but even I didn't see the set up until this moment. It's either that or we do now very hard. What does the sentiment tell you will happen? We blow up. We get interest rate cuts because the economy is in danger. Fed may even not make a cut until the bitter top, triggering the selling in the winter. I planned out a Wyckoff blow off months ago, but the price action was so difficult to get a handle on since October, and you really have to shrink and compress your candles down to see the true shape of it. I'm not that experienced, but it appears we'd get near 13k before the end. And whomever becomes president will get the gift of an 80% market drop during their term that has nothing to do with them. But will have been because of corporate greed, record buybacks to inflate values. Something had to give. Something has to give. Jack holes. And record retail use. Geez. Wonder what GME does in this bubble? I'm all in on RIVN to the top and then I sell everything. I but it hits 420 and dies. Lol. This world we live in.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by CaptainLogik
It's a Bull - It's a Bear - It's Time to Make Up Your Mind3 straight weeks of setting from mid-July crescendos with a crash August 2. But the "crash" was met with a vicious buying spree that now places the major index 50% of so from the large high to low swing. In this video, I breakdown the technicals and scenarios trying to make some sense of where we could be heading. We are mostly through Q2 earnings. PPI and CPI prints have been digested (market likes it mostly). We still have retail sales and unemployment claims this week and if the market reacts bearish, it's a pretty obvious sign the market is more concerned about a softer labor market and recession than it is inflation. If the markets reacts bullish and continues to grind higher, we may be looking at another incredible V bottom without the FED having to do anything - which would be a surprise :) I'm cautiously bullish and believe the market will struggle to blow through all-time highs, but it's possible we still test and sniff them out, though unlikely it will be broad. More about big money moves are cutting positions in Mag 7 so a true broadening will be a nice change of pace instead of a highly concentrated Top 10 carrying the overall market. Enjoy the video and thanks for watching!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChrisPulver