Morning Session REview ES 8-6-24Going over the morning session. looking back at the clues the market left for us. coming up with a plan for rest of the RTH session into the Close.
ES1! trade ideas
Es Levels & targets Aug 6thAfter sellers gave us an incredible sell on Monday, yesterday saw the 1st short squeeze with 5191 reclaim triggering longs. In the plan, i wrote I was looking for 5252, 5274, 5300, then 5338.. we clipped 5300 then dipped from there
As of now: 5250-52, 5230 are supports. Staying above, keeps 5274, 5300, 5338 in play. 5230 fails, retest 5191
OverNight Price Action REview ES 8-6-24Going over the Overnight Price Action looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. how we want to position for the Morning session.
SPX500 Plans; Crucial Understanding Of SentimentPowell has just mentioned broader disinflation occurring, and also the need to be less restrictive on rates.
This is propelling SPX long momentum.
If you are looking to trade the SPX, there's a few things you need to know first.
ES price action Review RTH 8-5-24Going over the price action ES RTH looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded the day better. do the hard work. dont skip and cheat. do as much as you can every day. did i do enough today???
ES Daily Violence Into 200 Bounce PlayAny violence into the 200sma and the subsequent small bounce is 100% shortable after the elimination of the green's body. In this case, 4250.
Sell limit order under that body low at 4245
Target the low of the range or 4850
Violence into the 200sma is NOT a buyable event and WILL roll over in a dead cat bounce.
All the dashed lines below are pivot lows where stops are placed. Ample fuel for stop runs down.
Also, trade in the direction of the 21ema as that is where the flow of power is at the moment. Why pick a bottom when you can just slip in the river and be swept downstream without trying.
AMP Futures - Session Volume Profile (SVP) - NEW chart typeIn this idea we will demonstrate how to access the NEW Chart type "Session Volume Profile" (SVP).
Catching its breathI am repeating what I said on Friday and that is the S&P 500 market has moved far enough fast enough for the market to stop and catch its breath. The reaction to Friday's S&P 500 movement carried over into the Asia session and globally to the possibility of a recession. I think now the market needs to reconnoiter and create an inside day based on Mondays movement on Tuesday.
Change of Market Structure (Reverting Back To Original Thesis)I believe I was wrong on a bull rally but instead the market is performing what I was planning back in September of 2023.
A sideways range for the next 20 years. It just took awhile to start to roll over. The June, July and August monthly candles completes the engulfing pattern at the top of the bear flag.
I am now short after taking some losses on my Dow position and will target the rising to flattening out 200sma down at 2900.
Notice the bear flag as well on the MACD? It will soon too be rolling over and going deep into sell territory. Plus the monthly MACD divergence.
I can't believe I got suckered into this fake bull rally after being a bear back in 2023.
I will link below my original thesis as I don't want to go over the same charts as before.
One thing to note on the Daily chart is the violence INTO the 200sma is regarded as a selling opportunity.
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning.
comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways.
Invalidation is below 5100.
bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend.
Invalidation is above 5460.
short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
ES Weekly Analysis: Aug 5 2024From the monthly perspective ES is falling to close a monthly FVG of support at 5088. If price action breaks past this level of support, or forms a bearish candlestick pattern at this level, we could continue to fall and test the close of the weekly FVG at 4972 (major support level).
(Still awaiting bullish reversal pattern to form before considering to ride price back up to the gap opening at 5330)
ES Levels & Targets August 5thNice news move for ES overnight. As mentioned last Thursday, the next leg down begins on the fail of the 5447, and we are now down 250 points, for the largest short opp in years. Nothing to do but hold shorts now.
As of now: 5191 is support, then 5177, 5148. Buyers must reclaim 5245-50 to trigger a relief pop
S&P analysis S&P - am I the one, called for a crash , you can see my previous content I have put same buying range for S&P few weeks back.
Good buying level now.
6100-6200 selling range.
FED M2 money supply will start in few weeks and final last propel up US markets.
DYOR.
FBoS Sell IdeaFBoS Sell Idea on $ES. 15m // 30m TF. Could work if the FBoS forms, patience required.
Overnight Price Action Review ES 8-5-24Going over the Melt down scenario across the world looking at the ES price action coming up with a plan for the rest of the morning and the day. we are Risk Managers #1 - that is our job.
S&P500 Quick Analysis | Extreme Fear Driving Markets | How Low?The SPX has been slapped as investors rip out.
This comes with fears of a breaking economy/recession, blame pointing to the fed for holding for too long post miss in tech earnings.
If you are looking to buy at value, you may be better waiting.
$SPY $SPX $ES_F Which FIB level do we pull back to. We just pulled back to the first level - the .236, but how far down do we go? a healthy pull back is .618 and that would be 4413 in ES but all levels are fair game. And speculative, of course. 😏
10% Correction Region The -5% region (dip) and -10% region (correction), align well with recent low volume nodes on the Daily ES volume chat.
This weeks outlook on the S&P 500!Technical Analysis:
Current Price Action:
The S&P 500 closed at 5376, which is a critical level. This price point will serve as our primary reference for determining market sentiment.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: If the market remains above 5376, this level will act as a new support. Traders will be watching for a bounce off this level to confirm bullish momentum.
Resistance: Should the market move below 5376, the next significant support level will need to be identified, potentially around 5320.
Moving Averages:
50-Day Moving Average: This will help us gauge the short-term trend. If the current price is above the 50-day MA, it indicates a bullish trend. Conversely, if it is below, it suggests a bearish trend.
200-Day Moving Average:
This provides a longer-term trend perspective. A price above this average signals a long-term bullish outlook, while below it suggests bearishness.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI will indicate whether the market is overbought or oversold. An RSI above 70 suggests overbought conditions, while an RSI below 30 indicates oversold conditions. Current RSI levels can help anticipate potential reversals or continuations in price movements.
Volume Analysis:
Volume spikes can signify the strength of a price move. High volume with upward price movement supports a bullish outlook, whereas high volume with downward movement supports bearishness.
Market Sentiment:
Investor Sentiment:
Market sentiment can often be gauged through various sentiment indices or social media analysis. Positive sentiment typically aligns with bullish market movements, whereas negative sentiment aligns with bearish trends.
Institutional Activity:
Monitoring the actions of institutional investors can provide insights into market direction. Large buy orders from institutions often signify confidence in market growth, while large sell orders may indicate a lack of confidence.
Conclusion:
Given the current closing price of the S&P 500 at 5376, the market outlook hinges on whether it can maintain levels above this point. A sustained move above 5376 will likely attract more bullish activity, potentially pushing prices higher. However, a drop below this level could indicate bearish momentum, leading to further declines.
In the absence of significant fundamental data this week, technical indicators and market sentiment will play crucial roles in guiding trading decisions. Traders should pay close attention to support and resistance levels, moving averages, RSI, and volume to navigate this week’s market movements effectively.
Is the crash here?Throughout all of social media and YouTube I've been seeing many people panicking if weather or not we have topped and should start selling. One thing that I've learned predicting mayor world events is to: always play it on the safe side when dealing with uncertainty. Instead of shorting the market, I prefer reducing my exposure, as short trades are extremely risky, and I've personally learned that the hard way. It is true that price action is now at an infliction point. With a vast amount of stocks entering a downtrend in such a harsh manner. It is not hard to see why everyone is panicking. Do I think this is the crash we've been waiting for? Perhaps it is, but I can't tell with certainty because even tough price is over extended, it does have a lot of structure supporting it.
The reason we are at an infliction point is due to the price action reaching the 25MA which many times is used as support or resistance and going below this threshold would for sure confirm a downtrend and with my Mean Returns indicator the story is the same. We are seeing a loss in momentum after having a very bullish push in the last years.
With all the recent news in the U.S. election, it is fascinating to see the market react to these mayor events. These do change the scope of how the market should behave, as a lot of uncertainty has just been introduced to the U.S. population in general. This lack of knowing what the future hold in store is what I believe to be the driving force of this recent downtrend. Combined with increasingly worsening economic fundamentals is what will give us the crash we are waiting for. But before making a decision on how to trade, it's important to consider all possible outcomes. Which is exactly what you can see in the graph. Where I've marked what different price action would mean to the economy and the market in general, as well as setting a trading plan for all of these outcomes.
This type of panicking is what leads me away from using stop losses. People panic and push prices violently. However, many times the analysis was correct from the start but hitting a stop loss gets you to close your position prematurely. That's why I define several entry levels and dollar cost average since the beginning. Using an equation to determine how much should I invest, at which levels to determine the correct amount of exposure to avoid missing out and to always have a favorable average price.
Thursday & Friday NFP Price Action REview ES 8-2-24Going over the price action for Thursday and Friday NFP, looking for clues as to what the market was telling us. We got stopped twice on thursday leading to an automatic Friday Suspension. 2 yellow cards in a day = a Red Card. Miss the next game. hope everyone worked on reviewing their trades and updating their trading Plan. We Are Risk Managers first and foremost. if your coach's aren't managing risk then you need new coaches.
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450.
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below.
comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here.
current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend.
key levels: 5400-5600
bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again.
Invalidation is below 5300.
bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months.
Invalidation is above 5600.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good.
short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024.
medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024.
current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500.
chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
Does the USA sill have something left in the tank?With the recent news of the FED being close to a new rate cut, it's important to start considering the possibility of the market going even higher. However, it's hard for price to keep pushing up when it's already overextended. Not saying this doesn't happen because it does. Price does tend to break the rules of statistics, given the irrationality of people. However now that most stocks are currently in an uptrend, it's hard to believe this performance will continue for much. It's likely that several stocks will begin to start forming downtrends, pushing the percentage of stocks in an uptrend down. When looking at the chats, the cyclicality of growth spurts is quite notorious. However, not every time that a down turn in the index is followed, the vast majority of stocks being in an uptrend.
Although this does tend to happen, as I've circled here in many examples. However, other examples don't show this same pattern and instead see price move even higher. This is because using the percentage of stocks in an uptrend as an indicator is not painting a full picture. Even if many stocks being going into downtrends, the force and extent of which these trends form is what actually drives price action in the index. So we should expect several stocks to begin underperforming in the next couple of days. But if the stocks that have just recently entered an uptrend keep providing strong results, it's still possible for the index to keep on going higher. The direction of the index will depend on the strength of the new form trends and the soon-to-be formed downtrends.
