ES Price Action Review day Session 9-4-24Going over ES price action for the regular trading hours. looking back on how we could have traded it better and how to position for the next day.
ES1! trade ideas
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5500 -5670
bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes.
Invalidation is below 5490/5500.
bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally.
Invalidation is above 5666.
short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax.
trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
OverNight ES price Action rEview 9-4-24Going over the Overnight session ES looking for clues as to how the market wants to trade today.
ES/SPX Levels and Targets Sept. 4thYesterday, sellers finally broke out of its 5585-5665 range. The 5630 failure would trigger short, as mentioned, and we dropped 120 points. Sellers now control until resistance levels are reclaimed (first 5535, then 5588).
As of now: 5519 and 5502 are key supports. Holding those levels could lead to a pop to 5535 (resistance) and possibly 5553+. If 5502 fails, I'll be looking to sell at 5493 and 5483.
Overreaction?Did the S&P 500 overreact in the tech sector as it broke to the downside on Tuesday? The Asia session so far continues lower as momentum carries into the Asia session. However, I am not looking for a big move to the downside and without new fundamental information I do think this was an overreaction.
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Huge bear surprise today. The strength of the selling was absolutely unexpected. Bulls closed August at the very high and had all the arguments to print new ath but as of now, this selling is different and new highs are now very unlikely. Most daily charts printed a huge outside down bar, closing at the lows and below the daily ema. If bears get follow through tomorrow, they have taken control of the market and we might take the elevator down again.
sp500 e-mini futures
Here is the quote from my weekly update:
bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us.
comment : Market went only down today and did not touch the 15m ema, so it only makes sense to talk about the daily chart. Bears did exactly what they needed to do in order to make more bulls take profits. Now comes the most important part. If they let the bulls have a bigger pullback, this might go above 5650 again but if it stays below 5600 and we print 5490, that would certainly hit the last stops and could accelerate this down hard.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5500 -5670
bull case: Bulls are running for the exits. They want to secure the profits from the insane reversal over the last weeks. I expect many more stops around 5490 and bulls need to prevent the market from getting there. Bulls have the slight hope this was an early sell climax with a bear trap below the daily ema and the expanding triangle. If they can get above 5600 again, their case is valid and we could get back above 5640 again.
Invalidation is below 5490/5500.
bear case: Bears have all arguments on their side, if they keep the pullback shallow and print below 5500 tomorrow. Seasonality is on their side this month and since the market is in a very volatile state, it’s possible to see 5000 this month. The first bigger target for the bears is obviously every round number, so 5500 but I do think 5400-5420 is the real target because that is the 50% pb from the recent bull rally. I will look to see if the 1h ema will hold tomorrow. Max bearishness would be to go sideways between 5500-5560 until bears want the bigger second leg down.
Invalidation is above 5660.
short term: Bearish but I expect a pullback before another leg down. Need to see how strong bulls are tomorrow. First bigger target for the bears is 5400.
medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold. Sounds a lot easier than it is but those are the hard facts. If you struggle to do that, you need to come up with strategies to force yourself to swing part of your position and not close until a clear signal appears. Today had no signal to exit shorts.
Multi-Day downtrend incoming?If CME_MINI:ES1! fails to reclaim 5585 before todays close, expect a multi-day sell off with a first target of the 50 day moving average
New Month, Same Playbook?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled 5661.00, up 51.00 on Friday and 8.50 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,623.00, up 229.75 on Friday and down 167.75 on the week
The page has turned to September, but the choppiness that characterized last week remains. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are off their best levels, surrendering the late Friday and month-end ramp. There was no major news overnight, and the soft tape pins indices back into last week’s range ahead of a jam-packed week of economic data. Today kicks things off with the closely watched ISM Manufacturing report for August at 9:00 am CT, which comes just after the final S&P Global Manufacturing read at 8:45 am CT. Tomorrow, we look to JOLTs, Thursday brings ADP and Services PMI, and the week is capped off with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 69.4% probability the Fed will cut rates by 100bps before yearend, and whether or not they do, we believe this probability is overzealous ahead of this week’s data dump.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures slipped early this morning from the European open onward and are now back midrange. Our Pivot and point of balance at 5632 and 19,519 will be crucial in helping to determine whether this move is a blip and Friday’s ramp continues, or if sellers are in the driver’s seat. In the case of a rebound, the ceiling we defined last week is at 5661.75-5665.25 and 5669-5672.75 in the E-mini S&P and 19,623-19,656 and 19,690-19,705 in the E-mini NQ; a close above here is needed to break range and invite what is likely to be strong buy volume. To the downside, there is significant support in which neither index closed below last week and has buoyed waves of selling at 5593.25-5598 and 19,370-19,415.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5641-5646**, 5652.50-5656.50**, 5661.75-5665.25***, 5669-5672.75***, 5717.25-5721.25****
Pivot: 5632
Support: 5623**, 5608.75-5614.25***, 5602.75-5604.25**, 5593.25-5598****, 5573.50-5582.75***, 5558.50-5561.25**, 5547.50-5551.75***, 5526.75-5536.50***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 19,623-19,656***, 19,690-19,705***, 19,783-19,801***, 19,832-19,867***, 19,904-19,925****
Pivot: 19,519
Support: 19,434-19,451*, 19,370-19,415***, 19,337-19,342**, 19,227, 19,130**, 19,003****
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
SPX (ES Futures) - Short Term Outlook - KEY levelsIt's a great day! Quick update on SPX (however all prices quoted using ES futures levels).
After the "great crash of 2024" at the beginning of August, we are now seeing the SPX index above the breakdown level which is a key point in determining where things go from here. From an ES level perspective, here's what I can see:
KEY RESISTANCE: We have key resistance at the 5665 level. We need to close an hourly above this level in order to increase confidence in a short term bullish setup.
KEY SUPPORT: There should be key support that has been developed in the last couple months at the 5540 level.
Important notes: Break above 5565 increases confidence in short term bullish bias up to 5800+ and break below 5540 increases confidence in a short term bearish bias down to 5400 or lower.
ES - Learn From Your Losses Even When Your Right!Title doesn't really make sense does it..?
To me it does and this weeks price action is an example of this statement.
Last week, i was expecting a continuation in bullish price action before a eventual sell-off, not understanding that time plays a very crucial role in delivery.
What i was projecting was a multi-week 2-step plan that, so far, is going great.
Further continuation to the upside, targeting the $5,770 - $5,780 is in the cards for next weeks trading range.
ES OverNight Price Action Review 9-3-24Going over ES price Action Overnight and yesterdays holiday shortened session. looking for clues today as what the market wants to do and how we're positioning for the day. no A+ setups no Trades for us today.
ES Weekly Analysis Sept 2This week, since we are nearing the previous all time high, I decided to draw monthly and weekly overlapping Fibonacci. Last week price was choppy. I would expect a breakout soon, as we near the next FOMC Fed Rate decision.
From the weekly perspective, there is large support FVG below, with wicks left in it, signaling that at some point, price will need to retest 5566.
From the daily perspective, there is a tiny resistance FVG that is awaiting closure at 5672.
This week is the first trading week of the new month and we have busy week of inflation data. The data this week could help us determine the FOMC's feelings regarding their stance on reducing the interest rates this month.
OrderlyThe price action seen in the S&P 500 futures market for Monday was orderly. Huge volatility for the shortened trading session was not expected. So, the price action shown indicates that type of price behavior. Tuesday the potential for move to the upside to 5680 would be the next objective.
ES (S&P 500 Futures) - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES (S&P 500 Futures), it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5616.50.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
SP500**SP500:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the range between 5199.75 and 5153.50.
SP500 seasonality and market positioning are at oddsOn one hand, seasonality for the S&P 500 and indices in general tends to be unfavourable in September. On the other, asset managers are 'all in' being long the index which sits just beneath its record high. We weigh up the competing factors to decide whether we should tread carefully around seasonality, or simply ignore it.
MS
ES Futures Initial Balance with Fib Extensions approach.In this example, I used different Fib Extension levels off the ES INITIAL BALANCE high and low between 8:30 and 9:30 am.
In the previous example, GC Initial balance was calculated between 7:20 and 8:20 am CST.
I came across these very odd-looking, but VERY promising Fib Ext levels that is getting me very exited to start testing them asap.
So It's actually not traditional Fib levels. We'll just use the drawing tool for this.
It's basically adding increments of 0.3 from 0 to 2.9 and from 0 to -2.9.
Here are the levels :
.
Firstly. I'm going to suggest that you "grab this chart" - www.tradingview.com - or from options menu below and opening it up on a lower timeframe like the 3 or 5 minute and note how price not only reacts at some of those levels but also how it serves as some great SHORT TERM RARGETS.
This seems like a great tool to add to my Day Trading style because I generally execute my ideas on my 1 minute trigger chart , aiming to participate on 3 or 5 minute timeframe movement.
Secondly, try and extend those levels after the US close, to remain visible through the Asian and European session right up to 30mins before the next US session. You'll find that on most days, during the 'Overnight' they seem to remain tradable levels or targets.
Obviously, just like when using any other tool/indicator - it needs to fall in line with your trading plan/ approach
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Current bullish leg looks more like a leg in a trading range than something of a new bull trend that breaks above the previous ath. It’s 50/50 if bulls can print a new ath or this stays a lower high. It’s too high to buy for anything but intraday and too early to short unless you short small and have a stop above 5800. It’s a bullish structure but you would be buying very high in a potential trading range. Bad R:R.
Quote from last week:
comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up.
comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range.
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: Bulls need to break above 5670 if they want a new ath and it look’s very good after Friday. If they fail on Monday, I have my doubts that they can get it. Bulls are still clearly in control of the market or we would have been trading below the daily ema already. Will be interesting to see how many bears come around above 5700 and bulls taking profit, if we get there.
Invalidation is below 5550.
bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us.
Invalidation is above 5670.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5652 and now we are at 5661. 9 points off. I do think that was a perfect outlook.
short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs.
medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Big ABC correction is pure speculation. Don’t bet on it. I do think the climactic bull rally is over and market is going sideways before the next bigger breakout. Only above 5750 can bulls dream about a breakout above the big bull wedge.
ES weekly Sep 4-7Monthly : CRT in play on monthly also aligning with IRL-> ERL bringing ATH in play this week.
Weekly : CRT continuation (weekly FVG (IRL) -> ATH (ERL)
last week dipped in weekly FVG before moving up.
Expect the 50% of the weekly wick to support the price until buyside is taken.
Daily : Daily CRT was completed last week.
Most likely we retrace to 5641 (hourly breake/4h cisd) before taking out buyside.
EWT Diamond Pattern, Bearish new ATH's over!?!The last time I remember seeing this pattern was at an all time high January 2022, that over a long time creating this same diamond pattern.
There were, and are, many new ATHs created just like in the recent past...
other similar features were, and are, Head and Shoulder patterns, many of them, attempts to crash the market and new att time...
The head and shoulders is actually my Batman Pattern i discovered, instead of a head above the shoulders, it looks more like the bat ears, and wings above the head... I have posted Ideas about it going back 8 years.
In one sentence a EWT diamond top pattern.
I think we may not see any more new all time highs for a while. If fact we are at a lower high.
EWT: after 3 sets of 5 waves up, and ABCs down, followed by a lower high is called an EWT "tripple thrust pattern", to signal we go down.
Books on trading and Profitunity strategy by Bill WilliamsIn this article, I will share books that were useful for me in the process of studying trading and the Profitunity trading strategy by Bill Williams.
Bill Williams "Trading Chaos 1 and 2" ♡
The first and third books by Bill Williams contain complete and up-to-date information on the Profitunity strategy. The second book "New Trading Dimensions" is intermediate and less relevant.
The book Trading Chaos 1 includes trading psychology (an integral part of trading), the basics of understanding the markets, candlestick patterns (divergent bars and determining the trend based on a pair of bars, the market facilitation index, volume and squat bar), Elliott waves (characteristics, determining waves using the MACD 5/34/5 indicator, an analogue of the modern Awesome Oscillator, and the Fibonacci ratio), fractals, trading in waves (impulses 1-3-5 and ABC correction). And also very important topics — how to work with your internal structure and how our brain functions (Chapter 11).
The book Trading Chaos 2 (co-authored by Bill Williams' daughter Justine Gregory) includes a description of the Alligator indicator in combination with the Awesome Oscillator, divergent bars and fractals. And also tools for working on yourself - morning pages (Chapter 13, from the book by Julia Cameron "The Artist's Way") and autogenic training for traders by Johannes Schultz (Appendix 3).
Tom Hougaard "Best Loser Wins" ♡
The book greatly expands the perception of markets, the approach to trading and deeply describes the psychology of trading.
The book was first published in 2022 and perfectly complements the books by Bill Williams.
John J. Murphy "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets"
A basic book on classical (linear) technical analysis, which also contains up-to-date information on Elliott Wave Theory in addition to the corresponding section in the book by Bill Williams "Trading Chaos 1".
Alexander Elder "Trading for a living" (How to Play and Win on the Stock Exchange)
A book on the psychology of trading and classical chart analysis, includes a detailed description of popular indicators and a description of the basic strategy "Three Screens" (analysis of the chart on the senior and junior timeframes), as well as an important topic "Risk management".
Steve Nison "Japanese Candlesticks"
A basic book on classical candlestick (bar) analysis.
Thomas DeMark "Technical Analysis - a new science"
Constructing trend lines based on the support price minimums and maximums described in the book led me to search for an indicator that displays such bars, as a result, I first became acquainted with the Bill Williams Fractals indicator, even before I became acquainted with his strategy.
Theodore Dreiser "The Financier" ☽
A novel published in 1912 based on the life story of the American millionaire Charles Yerkes (1837-1905). The book shows how the financial and economic environment surrounding the main character (Frank Cowperwood) already from childhood forms in him the psychology of a businessman and stock dealer...
Robin Sharma "The 5 AM Club" ☆
This book is not about trading, but about healthy habits. But for me the book became useful, including in trading, because I made the following conclusion for myself - it is important to rest (take breaks) every day, and not only on weekends and vacations. And it is worth starting with the fact that after waking up there is free time (about 1 hour) before business activity begins, i.e. either wake up earlier, or move all things forward, so that you can start your day easily. And taking breaks in trading is very important, so I recommend paying attention, for example, to the algorithm for removing limitations using neurographics.
(◉ ‿ ◉) There are many good books, as well as good strategies, but I am sure that only independent deep study, practice, good concentration and self-control will allow you to find your own understanding of the markets and your own approach to successful trading.
