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S&P 500 E-mini Futures

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ES1! trade ideas

MES Futures – ORB Strategy Long from London Open Range BreakDescription: Executed a clean ORB long trade on MES during the London session, with confirmation from the 5-min chart and structure mapped on the 15-min. Setup Breakdown: Session: London Open Strategy: Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Entry: Break of ORB high with confluence from 15-min demand zone + EMA support Stop: Below session low and structural demand Target: Previous session high & key 1HR supply zone T echnical Context: Price rejected from previous session low and formed a clear ORB range. After consolidation, a strong bullish candle broke above the range high with increasing volume and EMA cross. Trade was managed up to the previous session high and partials secured before price met the diagonal resistance trend line. Key Zones: ✅ Entry Zone: 6270.00 🟥 Stop Loss: ~6260.25 🎯 Target Area: 6287.75 (Previous Session High) 🟥 15-min Supply overhead could pose resistance Staakd Rating: ★★★★☆ (Rated 4/5 for textbook ORB play, clean risk:reward, and structure alignment)
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by stakkd
S&P 500 BULLISH BREAKOUT ABOVE ALL TIME HIGHS!Hey Traders taking a look at the S&P500 this week it is clear that we are in a strong bull market. Notice that we broke above 6300 on the ES Futures Contract last week on July 3. This level is extremely important because it was the all time high from Feburary 2025. So now that the market has closed above this level buying opportunities can be considered at the trendline. 6135-6150 look like a good place to grab this bull again by the horns. 😁 So if your bullish wait for the pullback no need to chase the market imo. Eventually it will pullback lets see what happens July 9 WED with the Tarrifs. Expect Volatility! However if your bearish be very careful I don't think there is a good risk to reward ratio to shorting at this time. Good Luck & Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
CME_MINI:ESU2025Long
by TradeTheIndex
14 day look ahead at ES spy futures CME_MINI:ES1! I am watching fundamentals and any incoming tariff news this week (mostly for scalps on small timeframes). This is because of the Japan news reaction we saw last week which presented good opportunity. Bear: I am watching price seek possible consolidation up here after being bullish at a strong upwards angle. I see small exhaustion being cooled off and possibly looking for more cooling until the middle of this week, I expect no serious price movement until Wednesday July 9, 2025. Watching that 4h green slanted trendline to break for scalping opportunities. If the white larger trendline is broken I will be considerably more bearish that we would likely reach a price of 5,805 or lower again, this would be a lot to ask but it is a location I would assume price would find solid support if reaching that area in the future weeks/ month. Watching horizontal lines for support this week specifically at price 6,271 to be broken or held. There looks like there is some slim price action (little support or resistance) from 6,100 to where we are now. This could push the downward volume quicker to the downside possibly presenting great opportunity for bears in the possible near future, if we break down below 6,197. Bull: we are clearly in a macro bullish trend it is silly to decide we would all of a sudden drop significantly unless something obscene happens fundamentally. I step into this week assuming we will keep strong upward trendlines far above the macro (my white thick) trendline. watching fib extension levels for more upside since we are consolidating a bit already it would be easy to assume we will jump up to the .236 at 6,342 and even get to the .382 at 6,387 and higher. I still expect the ADX to cool down here in the beginning of the week if not all week. I also assume to see the rsi finish its bearish divergence off with a strong predicted sell off- but to reach higher highs after (buy the dip, trade the reaction, WAIT for the dip).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Daughter_of_the_water
1
2025 Q1 + 6M/12M ranges 8h interim cycling bullish. s1 @ 5554 r1 @ 5592 macro r1 @ 5738 sustain above and macro rotation pushes higher, r2 @ 5921. its 8 days into the trading month and we've spent the entire 1M atr with extension to the downside. 8H / 1D interim rotation is bullish and no hh on di- since feb 27, despite almost a 500pt drop. Extended boxes for 6M / 12M, and major levels noted for annual sup/res also marked. In the last 20+ years, 12M candles closing red still printed an avg 4.74% H above the open; and after hitting lows, closed the year with an 9.97% rebound. The rotation is a feature not a flaw. Accept that it's fixed, and you'll see that nothing is broken. You'll know the signal when you see it. Appreciate the risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by iSovereign
4
SPX Is Pure RiskAbsolutely insane for people to be saying things like "a new bull market" when it never ended. All of the risk is to the downside. If markets ran another 10% to the upside that gives investors a chance to determine if they want to buy a correction to see new highs or not. But to say that a bull market is coming is the antithesis of thinking when current risk is all downside. This is risk management 101: Lets say you have a SP:SPX target of 10,000, would you rather buy it at 6,500 where you know your downside is 7-8% or right here at 6300 with a potential downside of 22%+? Who in the market is long right now? Everyone because all the short sellers are stopped out, and the dumbest of money the guys who just got promoted to the rank of captain in the branch of hindsight bought the "breakout." The retracement to the highs has been one of the most hated rallies off of a bounce ever seen and why? Because it required a large amount of vibes and to a degree stupidity to buy where it bounced but it paid off. So if it was borderline stupid to do that, what does it mean to lever up at the top? The correct method is to either be short here or be patient for a breakout with volume and a successful retest. There you can limit your downside and have nearly unlimited upside if it plays out that way.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CrashoutCapital
ES, SPY, SPX will be testing key support on Sunday After a welcome rally into new highs for the s&p, there appears to be a critical crossroad forming. Using the ES continuous contract I have placed 2 anchored VWAP's. The first being anchored to the last higher low on Thursday, June 19. And the the second, being anchored to this last Thursdays high on July 3rd. For this post we will call the anchor from June 19 - VWAP1. And for the July 3rd anchor - VWAP2 VWAP1 r1 has acted as a key support line since the higher low was set. Successfully bouncing and holding support several times. As we headed lower on this Thursdays July 3rd session, we remained between the center and r1 of VWAP2 indicating strong selling pressure for the day. With it being a shortened trading day with less liquidity however, I have less concern over the days price action. The forming crossroads and the upcoming Sundays open will be more telling for where we likely head this week. The blue Horizontal Line at 6266 is placed directly on VWAP1s r1 (green line) which has acted as support. If we trade into this level on the Sunday open, it's a clear signal the sellers are still in control. If however, price can consolidate at that level (6266) and form structure, a breakout of the structure would be evidence of sellers backing off and buyers stepping in creating a good buying opportunity for the week. Another possible scenario, if we first manage to trade up into s1 of VWAP2 (orange line) around the 6300 level, I will be looking for a short scalp down to the r1 of VWAP1 at 6266. From here it would be prudent to sit and wait for more confirmation on if this is a reversal, or just another pullback in the uptrend. These are my two trade setups and ideas for Sunday's open. Hope this analysis helps. Happy trading 🤙💰📈
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradeitUntilyouMakeit
July 9, the next key date for the S&P 5001) Caution: the S&P 500 is now in short-term technical overbought territory and may enter a retracement (without jeopardizing the underlying uptrend) Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 future contract has technically broken above its all-time high of 6,150 points, thereby validating a signal that the underlying uptrend is continuing. The market has risen for several consecutive sessions without pausing, and is now overbought in the short term. From a purely technical point of view, the market is therefore exposed to a reversal, and a test of its former all-time high is a possible scenario for deflating short-term overboughtness and waiting for dynamic support. The chart below shows the monthly, weekly and daily Japanese candlesticks for the S&P 500 future contract. You can see that there is still potential on the long-term timeframes, but the short-term framework (daily timeframe) is overbought in terms of momentum (momentum being represented here by the RSI technical indicator). The market will need to be able to hold the 6000/6150 technical support in order to preserve the uptrend in place since the beginning of April. 2) The US labor market remains resilient according to the latest NFP report, which is good news for the macro-economic situation, but postpones the FED rate cut The US job market has just delivered an unexpected signal: the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1% of the working population, after several months of stability around 4.2%. Although this drop may seem modest, it comes at a time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) is closely monitoring the labor market for signs of a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity. This drop in unemployment suggests that, despite the monetary tightening of the past two years, the US economy remains resilient. It is now unlikely that the FED will resume cutting the federal funds rate on Wednesday July 30. 3) BEWARE of the Wednesday July 9 deadline for trade agreements between the USA and its trading partners US President Donald Trump has confirmed that the USA plans to send a series of official notifications to several trading partners from this Friday July 4, setting unilateral tariffs that will take effect from August 1. A dozen letters will be sent initially, followed by further mailings over the next few days. This marks a new stage in his strategy of pressuring foreign countries to conclude agreements before the deadline he had announced for Wednesday July 9. At this stage, it seems unlikely that the Wednesday July 9 deadline will be extended. So it's important to bear in mind that the trend at the very beginning of next week will be directly influenced by the news coming in on the trade war/diplomacy. The S&P 500 index will react very directly to this information. We need trade agreements with China, India, the European Union and Japan if we are not to jeopardize the S&P 500's fundamental uptrend. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote
SPX inflection point: Parabolic Up or Breakdown? See here the entire futures contract (ES front contract) history for the S and P. What becomes very clear from connecting the lows is that the S and P has been growing parabolic over its futures chart *entire* history. So we are now at an inflection point in the stock market history. For the first time this year, we below the parabolic arc. It reclaimed it in May to only right now be bumping up against two major intersecting resistance lines. If we break through, hold on to your hats because we are going wayyyyy higher. Just to keep the parabolic growth curve would put us 50% higher by next year. If we breakdown, look out below. There is no support below this parabolic arc and the implosion could be catastrophic. Either way good luck and happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CryptoTaoist
Shocking Market Move Revealed! Will Prices Soar or Crash?1. Market Context Timeframe: The chart covers late June to early July 2025, with daily candlesticks showing recent price action. Trend: The price has been in an uptrend, breaking resistance around 6,180.00 and testing 6,290.00-6,300.00. This suggests bullish momentum, but the move is nearing a key resistance zone. 2. Key Levels Support: 6,180.00-6,200.00, where prior consolidation and moving averages align, offering a potential entry or stop-loss zone. Resistance: 6,300.00 is a critical level. A break above could target 6,350.00, while failure might lead to a reversal. Stop Loss: Place below support (e.g., 6,170.00) to protect against a breakdown, adjusting for your risk tolerance. Take Profit: Aim for 6,350.00 if bullish, or scale out at 6,290.00 if you expect resistance to hold. 3. Technical Indicators Candlestick Patterns: Recent green candles indicate buying pressure, but watch for reversal signals (e.g., doji or shooting star) near 6,300.00. Volume: At 77.04K, it’s moderate. A surge on a breakout would confirm strength; a drop might signal exhaustion. Moving Averages: The chart shows multiple MAs (e.g., 50-day, 200-day). If the price is above them, it supports the bullish case; a cross below could indicate a shift. 4. Trade Plan Entry: Consider entering long near 6,290.00 if the price consolidates or breaks 6,300.00 with volume confirmation. Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for at least 1:2 (e.g., risk 20 points to gain 40 points toward 6,350.00). Position Sizing: Calculate based on your account size and risk per trade (e.g., 1-2% of capital). Exit Strategy: Take partial profits at 6,320.00 and let the rest ride with a trailing stop, or exit fully if resistance holds. 5. Risk Management Volatility: The range (6,120.00-6,300.00) suggests moderate volatility. Adjust position size accordingly. News/Event Risk: Check for upcoming economic data or earnings that could impact the instrument. 6. Scenario Analysis Bullish Case: Break above 6,300.00 with strong volume could push to 6,350.00+. Monitor for follow-through. Bearish Case: Rejection at 6,300.00 with a red candle might drop to 6,180.00. Prepare to cut losses quickly.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by tradingbauhaus
DIYWallSt Trade Journal: Why Price Action Beats News **07/02/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis ** EOD accountability report: +763 Sleep: 4.5 hours Overall health: sleep deprived ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 4/4 success** — 9:57 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 11:10 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :x: **What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? ** You can't trade on news, the only thing that matters in day trading is price action. Bad news can still make the market go up. News The U.S. economy lost 33,000 jobs in June, as per ADP, badly missing forecasts for a gain of 99,000. MICROSOFT TO LAY OFF AS MANY AS 9,000 EMPLOYEES Tesla’s NASDAQ:TSLA Q2 deliveries miss consensus expectations **What are the critical support levels to watch?** --> Above 6250= Bullish, Under 6240= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) Market AnalysisKey Observations The S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) is currently trading at 6,240.00, with a high of 6,259.00 and a low of 6,244.75, based on the 4-hour chart provided. The price is approaching a significant resistance level around 6,240–6,259, where recent selling pressure is evident from the volume profile. The market has shown a strong upward trend, with higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) forming since the last major low near 6,020, but momentum appears to be slowing. Technical Analysis Price Action: The chart indicates a consolidation phase near the current level of 6,240.00, following a rally from the support zone around 6,020–6,040. The recent red candles suggest a potential reversal or pause in the uptrend. Volume Profile: The right-hand volume profile shows high volume nodes (HVNs) between 6,180 and 6,240, with the point of control (POC) near 6,220–6,240. This indicates strong trader interest and a potential support/resistance zone. The pink bars (selling volume) dominate above 6,240, signaling rejection at higher levels. Support and Resistance: Support: 6,220–6,240 (POC), with a deeper support at 6,180–6,200 if the price breaks lower. Resistance: 6,259 (recent high), with a psychological barrier at 6,300 if bullish momentum resumes. Indicators: The chart includes Market Profile levels (e.g., HH, HL, LH, LL), suggesting a structured approach to identifying value areas. The flattening of the value area suggests a lack of directional conviction at present. Market Context The ES has been influenced by mixed economic data, including the June 2025 ADP employment report, which reported a loss of 33,000 jobs, signaling potential economic slowdown. This could pressure equity markets, including the S&P 500. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report on July 03, 2025, is a critical event. A weaker-than-expected result (forecasted at 110,000 jobs) could increase bearish pressure, while a strong report might push the ES toward new highs. Recent market performance (e.g., NASDAQ 100 weakness due to Tesla news) may also be impacting the broader index, though the S&P 500 has shown relative resilience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by tradingbauhaus
End of Month and QuarterAs we wrapped up the end of the month and the end of the quarter, it can be helpful for traders to take time and look back on how markets have performed. The second quarter of 2025 showed extreme volatility in many markets, starting off with the strong broad selloff with the tariff announcement in early April, and as that was walked back the markets have rallied and equity markets are trading near all time high prices, specifically the S&P and Nasdaq. Traders also saw the Fed keep rates unchanged at the June meeting, stating that rate cuts are available if needed depending on the data. As of now, the CME Fed Watch Tool is pricing in another pause for rates at the July meeting in a few weeks, and the first cut coming at the September meeting at a near 75% probability by 25 basis points. Powell has mentioned that the Fed does not want to be early with rate cuts, and wants to only use the cuts if necessary and as a tool. There will be imperative data looking at GDP, inflation, and jobs that may give traders an idea of the direction the Fed will go on rates for the second half of the year.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CME_Group
TiqGPT buy setup ESJul 2, 2025 8:43 AM MARKET NARRATIVE: 1D Timeframe: The daily chart shows a strong bullish momentum with a series of green candles indicating a sustained upward move. This suggests institutional buying pressure and a lack of significant sell-side resistance. 4H Timeframe: The 4-hour chart confirms the bullish sentiment seen on the daily chart, with recent candles forming higher highs and higher lows. This is indicative of continued institutional interest in driving prices higher. 1H Timeframe: On the hourly chart, the bullish trend continues with price action showing smaller pullbacks followed by aggressive bullish candles. This pattern suggests that any dips are being used as buying opportunities by institutions. 15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart shows more granularity in the price action, with recent bullish candles breaking past previous minor highs. This indicates that short-term liquidity is being taken on the buy-side, likely trapping late retail sellers. 5M Timeframe: The 5-minute chart shows a consolidation pattern forming at higher levels, suggesting a pause in the immediate bullish momentum. This could be a setup for another push higher as the market digests the gains. 1M Timeframe: The 1-minute chart shows choppy but generally upward-trending price action, indicating ongoing micro battles between buyers and sellers with buyers maintaining a slight edge. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation and upward price pressure across multiple timeframes. The consistent formation of higher highs and higher lows across these timeframes suggests a coordinated effort to drive prices higher, likely targeting overhead liquidity pools where institutional sell orders may be placed. LEARNING POINT: "Multi-timeframe confluence of bullish order flow and mitigation of lower timeframe liquidity pools." SIGNAL: BUY SYMBOL: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1) ENTRY PRICE: $6,266.25 STOP LOSS: $6,250.00 (Below the recent minor low on the 15M chart) TARGET PRICE: $6,285.00 (Next potential liquidity pool on the 1D and 4H charts) CONDITION: Buy limit order at current market price with confirmation of continued bullish momentum on lower timeframes. RATIONALE: Strong bullish momentum across all timeframes, consistent institutional buying, and potential for reaching higher liquidity pools. STRATEGIES USED: Multi-timeframe bullish momentum, liquidity pool targeting. URGENCY: HIGH TIMEFRAME: Short-term to medium-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 90% based on institutional confluence RISK/REWARD RATIO: Calculated as 1:3.8 Risk: $16.25 (Entry Price - Stop Loss = $6,266.25 - $6,250.00) Reward: $18.75 (Target Price - Entry Price = $6,285.00 - $6,266.25) Ratio: 1:3.8 (Reward ÷ Risk = $18.75 ÷ $16.25)
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Mistermoriarty
DIYWallSt Trade Journal: Why Traders Are Rotating from Nasdaq to**07/01/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis ** EOD accountability report: +1160 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: Need to catch up on sleep again ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 4/4 success** 9:39 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: 11:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3 :check: 11:24 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal :check: 12:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: **What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? ** RTY and YM leading the way today NQ lagging Why is this? The answer is, Simple Supply and Demand theory. Money has to come from somewhere. If Money is going to YM and RTY, Money has to leave from NQ or ES or both. There is not an infinite amount of money, So if one index is outperforming like crazy over the other. It must be draining from it Why would it drain from NQ? Easy Because NQ and ES already hit ATH, YM and RTY has not hit ATH yet. So people are selling NQ and buying YM because it is on Discount News N/A **What are the critical support levels to watch?** --> Above 6235= Bullish, Under 6210= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007