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ES1! trade ideas

Understanding MACD In TradingThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that measures the relationship between two moving averages of an asset’s price. Developed by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s, MACD is designed to provide insights into both trend strength and momentum. Unlike simple moving averages, which merely smooth price data over a specific period, MACD goes a step further by identifying when short-term momentum is shifting in relation to the long-term trend. This makes it a valuable tool for traders looking to enter or exit positions at optimal points. 1. Why is MACD important in trading? Trend Confirmation: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend. Momentum Strength: Measures how strong a price movement is. Reversal Signals: Detects potential changes in trend direction. Entry and Exit Points: Helps traders determine when to buy and sell. 2. MACD Components The MACD Line: Identifies whether an asset is in an uptrend or downtrend. This line is derived by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. When the MACD Line is positive, it indicates bullish momentum; when negative, it suggests bearish momentum. The Signal Line: Measures how strong a price movement is. A 9-period EMA of the MACD Line. It smooths out MACD fluctuations, making it easier to identify crossovers. The Histogram: Detects potential changes in trend direction. The difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line. A positive histogram suggests increasing bullish momentum, while a negative histogram suggests growing bearish momentum. 3. MACD Formula The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most widely used technical indicators in trading. It helps traders identify trends, momentum shifts, and potential buy or sell opportunities by analyzing the relationship between two moving averages. By calculating the difference between a short-term and long-term exponential moving average (EMA), MACD provides insight into market direction and strength. //@version=6 indicator("MACD Indicator", overlay=false) // MACD parameters shortLength = 12 longLength = 26 signalLength = 9 // Calculate MACD macdLine = ta.ema(close, shortLength) - ta.ema(close, longLength) signalLine = ta.ema(macdLine, signalLength) histogram = macdLine - signalLine // Plot MACD components plot(macdLine, color=color.blue, title="MACD Line") plot(signalLine, color=color.red, title="Signal Line") plot(histogram, color=color.green, style=plot.style_columns, title="Histogram") Explanation: Short EMA (12-period) and Long EMA (26-period) are calculated. The MACD Line is the difference between these EMAs. A Signal Line (9-period EMA of MACD Line) is calculated. The Histogram represents the difference between the MACD Line and the Signal Line. 4. Interpreting MACD signals MACD Crossovers A crossover occurs when the MACD Line and Signal Line intersect: Bullish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line, it signals a potential uptrend and a buying opportunity. Bearish Crossover: When the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line, it suggests a potential downtrend and a selling opportunity. MACD Divergences Divergences occur when MACD moves in the opposite direction of the price, signaling a potential reversal: Bullish Divergence: If price makes lower lows, but MACD makes higher lows, it suggests weakening downward momentum and a possible bullish reversal. Bearish Divergence: If price makes higher highs, but MACD makes lower highs, it signals weakening upward momentum and a potential bearish reversal. Histogram Interpretation The MACD histogram visually represents momentum shifts: When bars are increasing in height, momentum is strengthening. When bars shrink, it suggests momentum is weakening. Zero Line Crossings The MACD crossing the zero line indicates momentum shifts: MACD crossing above zero → Bullish trend initiation. MACD crossing below zero → Bearish trend initiation. 5. Trend & Momentum Analysis Traders use MACD to confirm trends and analyze market momentum: If MACD Line is above the Signal Line, an uptrend is in place. If MACD Line is below the Signal Line, a downtrend is dominant. A widening histogram confirms strong momentum in the trend’s direction. A narrowing histogram warns of potential trend weakening. MACD works best in trending markets and should be used cautiously in sideways markets. 6. MACD Based Trading Strategies Entry Strategies Buy when MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line in an uptrend. Sell when MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line in a downtrend. Exit Strategies Exit long trades when a bearish crossover occurs. Close short positions when a bullish crossover occurs. Position Management If the histogram is expanding, traders can hold positions. If the histogram is contracting, it may signal weakening momentum. 7. Limitations of MACD While MACD is a powerful tool, traders must consider: It lags behind price movements (since it is based on moving averages). It can generate false signals in choppy markets. Customization is required to suit different trading styles. 8. Optimization Optimizing MACD for Different Market Conditions Day Traders & Scalpers: Use faster settings like (5, 13, 6) for quick signals. Swing Traders: Stick with the default (12, 26, 9) setting for balanced signals. Long-Term Investors: Use slower settings like (24, 52, 18) for a broader market perspective. 9. Key Takeaways MACD is a momentum and trend-following indicator that helps traders identify market direction, strength, and potential reversals. Since MACD is a lagging indicator, it may generate false signals, especially in sideways markets. Combining MACD with RSI, moving averages, and volume indicators improves accuracy and reduces risk. MACD should be used alongside risk management strategies and other confirmation tools for best results. MACD remains one of the most effective technical indicators, widely used across different markets. It helps traders identify trends, confirm momentum, and optimize trade entries and exits. However, it should always be used with additional tools to minimize false signals. Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System EOD accountability report: +$2,337.50 Sleep: 5 hour, Overall health: not gud ** Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System ** 9:36 AM VXAlgo NQ 48M Buy Signal, 9:44 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 11:13 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Sell Signal (lost $525 on this play) 1:21 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Sell Signal 2:05 PM VXAlgo NQ 48M Sell Signal 2:40 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal (triple signal) Overall a pretty wild day, I'm extremely glad that we have a system that works and reads the MM very well. The only thing we need to do is be extremely disciplined and pull the trigger without hesitation.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
Liberation, Altercation or Doom? ES Futures weekly planCME_MINI:ES1! Quick Update ​The upcoming week is poised to be critical for financial markets as President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches. On this date, the administration plans to implement new tariffs aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit by imposing reciprocal duties on imports from various countries. ​ As April 2 looms, the full impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, leaving markets and investors in a state of heightened anticipation.​ We may get clarity on the tariff situation on April 2, 2025. Universal tariff announcement of categories of imports may clarify US administration’s maximum tariff escalation approach. A phased out and unclear tariff approach may keep markets in limbo. Economic Calendar Keep an eye on the data docket, NFP and other key releases are due this week. Tuesday, Apri 1, 2025 : ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings Wednesday April 2, 2025 : ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM Thursday April 3, 2025 : Balance of Trade, Imports, Exports, ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims Friday, April 4, 2025 : Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM,Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Fed Chair Powell Speech Key Levels to Watch: Yearly Open 2025 : 6001.25 Key Resistance : 5850- 5860 LVN : 5770 -5760 Neutral Zone : 5705-5720 Key LIS Mid Range 2024 : 5626.50 2024-YTD mCVAL : 5381 2022 CVAH : 5349.75 August 5th, 2024 Low : 5306.75 Scenario 1: Bold but Strategic Tariffs (Effective Use of Tariff to reduce trade deficit and raise revenue) : In this scenario, we may see relief rally in ES futures, price reclaiming 2024 mid-range with a move higher towards key resistance level. Scenario 2: Maximum pressure, maximum tariff (All out trade war) : In this scenario, we anticipate a sell-off with major support levels, such as 2024- YTD mCVAL, 2022 CVAH and August 5th, 2024 low as immediate downside targets. Scenario 3: Further delays in Tariff policy (A negotiating tool, with looming uncertainty) : In this scenario, sellers remain in control and uncertainty persists, while we anticipate that rallies may be sold, market price action may remain choppy and range bound.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
No where to go but up....What a mess! As you can see from the 240 minute chart, things are indeed ugly. But, isn't it strange that we made all time highs just a month or so ago? Look at the Magic 7 stocks and find one that doesn't look buyable here. All the bearish sentiment in the world cannot stop the flood of FOMO money that will attract to the negative look of the chart to the first clear sign of a trend reversal. I don't care about the rest of the world, I am going to try and buy this somewhere between where we are and an absolute bottom in the 5500's.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by rzacuto
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$537.50 Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: Energized As mentioned in our trade recap video yesterday, today was suppose to be really bearish and go down more, However, the inflation report ended up being really bad and that just crashed the market all day. I was expecting to see some bounces here and there along the way but it was just straight drill with no buyers in sight. Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System 8:24 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! Look to STR at 1 min MOB or resistance. 11:10 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal 3:36 PM VXAlgo NQ 48M Buy Signal
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$786.25 Sleep: :ok: Overall health: Day 1 of fasting, edgy as f I finally got to test Caffeine and lions mane on an empty stomach and it was crazy, really sharp focus but jumpy as well. We started the day off pretty scary, Huge drop to 5720 and instant recovery to the top. Traded a bit on one of my APEX evals that renewed today but Didn't really touch the funded account until 11:20 when we hit the 48m resistance and got a 10m signal. Overall day was pretty decent, 10m and 5 m chart worked really well. Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System 9:50 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal 2x 11:10 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Sell Signal 2x 12:24 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
ID: 2025 - 0073.18.2025 Trade #7 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy... Trade entry at 30 DTE (days to expiration). This trade has a little more hot sauce and fire built into it. Unbalanced butterfly, close to expiration, will adjust the wing widths as the market adjusts either up or down. Goal is to be out of this trade in under two weeks before GAMMA really begins kicking in. The reason I like going in closer to expiration after big market moves, is the volatility is better, and fills are quicker, and spreads are tighter. The downside of playing super long DTE strategies is that when the market gets spooked or turbulent, the bid/ask spreads become a mile wide. Happy Trading! -kevin
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Kevins
TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESM2025) – 3/26/2025 PLAYBOOK# 📊 TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESM2025) – 3/26/2025 PLAYBOOK ## 🟢 SCENARIO 1 (BULLISH) **DIRECTION:** Long **STRUCTURE BIAS:** Bullish **ENTRY LEVEL:** 5,795-5,815 (current zone, buying sell-side liquidity raids) **STOP LEVEL:** 5,785 (invalidate if hourly close below this level) **TARGET LEVELS:** - **Target 1:** 5,880-5900 (Weekly Key High Resistance Level) **R/R RATIO:** ~3:1 (depending on final execution) ### EXECUTION STRATEGY - **Entry Confirmation:** Look for price to raid previous unhit weekly lows (sell-side liquidity) - **Long Entries:** Establish long positions as price successfully raids these lows but fails to sustain below them - **Stop Placement:** Use 5,785 as a hard stop (hourly close below invalidates the trade idea) - **Target:** Take profits at 5880 - 5,900 (Weekly Key High Resistance) ### KEY POINTS - Current price action targeting sell-side liquidity in the form of previous unhit weekly lows - Wednesday typically not a low/high of week formation day, suggesting potential for continued movement - Tomorrow's High Impact News Event (GDP at 8:30 AM) likely to create volatility and could accelerate the move - Bullish structure prevails as long as price maintains above liquidity raid zones --- ## 🔴 SCENARIO 2 (BEARISH) **DIRECTION:** Short **STRUCTURE BIAS:** Bearish after bullish extension **ENTRY LEVEL:** 5,880-5910 (Weekly Key High Resistance Level) **STOP LEVEL:** 5,9550 (invalidate if hourly close above this level) **TARGET LEVELS:** - **Target 1:** 5,740 (Weekly Opening Gap upper boundary) **R/R RATIO:** ~3:1 (depending on final execution) ### EXECUTION STRATEGY - **No Immediate Short:** Wait for price to extend to Weekly Key High Resistance Level (blue line ~5,900) - **Rejection Confirmation:** Look for reversal candles and selling pressure at resistance - **Short Entries:** Establish short positions once price trades below confirmation level after testing resistance - **Stop Placement:** Use 5,925-5950 as a hard stop (hourly close above invalidates the trade idea) - **Scaling Out:** Partial profit near 5,800, hold remaining for potential move to 5,745 area ### KEY POINTS - After liquidity is taken at the Weekly Key High Resistance (blue line), expect manipulation and reversal - Short opportunity emerges only after bulls exhaust momentum at key resistance - Weekly Opening Gap (red zone) remains a significant downside target for next move - Any sustained hourly close above 5,965 **invalidates** this bearish setup ## MARKET BIAS - **SHORT TERM (Today – 1 Day):** - **Bullish** bias as price is likely to find support at current levels and move toward the Weekly Key High Resistance - Current price action suggests accumulation before a move higher - Tomorrow's GDP numbers (8:30 AM) represent a potential catalyst for accelerated movement - **LONGER TERM (1–2 Weeks):** - After testing the Weekly Key High Resistance level (~5,900), expect a reversal and move back toward the Weekly Opening Gap (red zone) - Market structure suggests a "liquidity hunt" pattern – first to the upside, then reversing to the downside - Major liquidity draw currently at the blue line, once exhausted, focus will shift back to the Weekly Opening Gap
CME_MINI:ESM2025Long
by LiquidityTracker
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$760 Sleep: Bad Overall health: drained Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System 9:50 AM VXAlgo ES 48M Sell Signal ( didn't work that well) 10:10 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal (Double Signal) :check: 12:47 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal (Double Signal) :check: 3:30PM doji trade + expecting 48m to flip up Market stalled a it today as expected because we ran up a lot yesterday, We did go a bit higher but not much up from yesterday's high. Overall decent range day if you trade the 1 min MOB.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007