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ES1! trade ideas

2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: One again we saw a huge Globex sell spike but now follow-through. Bulls are on their way to 6100 and there we will see how many buyers we can find to retest the ath 6186. Plan is simple, trade the bull channel/expanding triangle until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames) key levels: 6000 - 6100 (above 6100 comes 6200 into play) bull case: Bulls are in BTFD mode and making higher highs again. 6100 is their next target and the last resistance until 6186. Problem for the bulls is that we get decent sell spikes and holding through them is tough. That is probably why we see bigger profit taking when we print new highs. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Bears ask themselves how many pushes on whatever time frame bulls can honestly get. The 6100 likely won’t hold but how many are willing to buy above 6100 when we could easily pull-back 100 points. We will find out tomorrow. Bears don’t have many arguments. We have a clear bull pattern upwards and the best they can hope for is to scalp short on new highs for a decent pull-back. Until bears can close consecutive bars below 6000, I would not look for bigger shorts. Given the current erratic price action due to orange man tweets, it’s a wild ride. Trade smaller and with wider stops. Invalidation is above 6120. short term: Bullish for 6100, then Neutral until clearly breaking out above again. Targets above are 6186 and then 6200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 6000, duh. Otherwise literally every touch of the 1h 20ema.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Equity Indices Starting off 2025Since the turn of the New Year, equity markets have seen a lot of volatility. The ES and NQ markets have both seen consolidation from the highs back in December, and now after testing the November lows are moving back higher. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the markets with a shift in global economics and politics on the front of many traders minds, but looking at the ES contract there is still a lot of recovery needed to retest the recent all time high levels. Looking more at the economic data, this week will be lighter in terms of data being released, and traders are starting to look ahead to the Fed policy decision next week. The CME Fed Watch Tool is indicating that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the January 29th meeting. Both the ES and NQ offer micro contracts that provide traders a unique level of scalability and a smaller barrier to entry, click here to learn more! If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by CME_Group
M.A.G.A's STORYTAIL (SP500)If I can reach the stars, pull one down for you Shine it on my heart so you could see the truth That this love I have inside is everything it seems But for now I find, it's only in my dreams And I can change the world I will be the sunlight in your universe You would think my love was really something good Baby, if I could change the world If I could be king, even for a day I'd take you as my queen, I'd have it no other way And our love would rule in this kingdom we have made 'Till then, I'd be a fool wishing for the day And I can change the world I would be the sunlight in your universe You would think my love was really something good Baby, if I could change the world Baby, if I could change the world I could change the world I would be the sunlight in your universe You would think my love was really something good Baby, if I could change the world Baby, if I could change the world Baby, if I could change the world Eric Clapton
CME_MINI:ES1!
by POWERFUL_TRADERS
S&P ES Long setup target 6129 / Calls SPY target 605Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (6020.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 17) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (6129.00). CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (6129.00), Target 2 at 161.8% (6206.00) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6243.50) Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5983.00). Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (605), Target 2 at 161.8% (613) and Target 3 at 178.6 (616) Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (592).
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by rose_excellence
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/17/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/17/25 📈 6047.25 (NEXT LEVELS: 6066, 6075.5, 6084.75) 📉 5969.75 (CLOSER LEVELS: 6018, 6008.5, 6000) 1/2 way mark 📈 6027.75 & 📉 5989.25 Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉💰 *These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by J3Trad3s
20250117 ESThere was a jigsaw for the AMS. The LOD was made at 4pm. This LOD created the REL. I do not anticipate these REL are to be raided this week. I would like one more upside subdivision with first d bs level raid. TGIF to start either during AMS sb or PMS Sb. I would like to see ORG as well. I anticipate some more upside, ideally to see bs raid. Though my main narrative is TGIF. The reversal to the downside is anticipated during AMS SB or PMS SB. I would like to see a clear 2022 model first before making any further judgments. Nevertheless the Wednesday ORG CE level is my -DOL if not for today but for the start of the next week.
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by Yoo_Cool
Market Outlook for Next Week (US):The upcoming week features key economic data and events that could influence market sentiment and asset prices. Below are the highlights and their potential market implications: Key Economic Events & Data Releases Flash PMIs for January (Tuesday, January 23, 2025) Time: 9:45 AM EST Expected Data: Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (Previous: 49.5) Services PMI: 51.3 (Previous: 50.9) If the Manufacturing PMI remains below 50, it will confirm ongoing contraction in the sector. However, an improvement in Services PMI could suggest resilience in the broader economy. Positive surprises in both PMIs may lead to a rally in equities, particularly in cyclical sectors, while disappointing data could weigh on sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday, January 25, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST Expected Data: Approximately 215,000 (Previous: 212,000) A low reading would signal continued strength in the labor market, likely reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This could put downward pressure on equities while supporting bond yields and the US dollar. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure may ease rate hike fears and support risk assets. Q4 2024 GDP Advance Estimate (Thursday, January 25, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST Expected Growth: 2.2% annualized (Previous: 2.5%) This release will provide insight into the economy’s performance during the final quarter of 2024. A weaker-than-expected GDP figure could fuel concerns about slowing growth and lead to a rally in bonds, while stronger growth may boost risk appetite but could reignite concerns about further Federal Reserve tightening. Core PCE Price Index (Friday, January 26, 2025) Time: 8:30 AM EST Expected Data: +0.2% month-over-month, 3.6% year-over-year (Previous: 3.8%) As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, this report will be closely monitored. A decline in the year-over-year figure may reduce pressure on the Fed to hike rates further, which could support equity markets and weaken the US dollar. Conversely, persistently high inflation could trigger renewed concerns about policy tightening, potentially weighing on equities. Consumer Sentiment Index – Final Reading for January (Friday, January 26, 2025) Time: 10:00 AM EST Expected Data: 64.8 (Previous: 64.6 preliminary) Consumer sentiment is a key indicator of household confidence and spending outlooks. An improvement could support consumer-related stocks, while any downward revision might weigh on the market. Overall Market Implications Equity markets will likely remain sensitive to any data hinting at changes in economic growth, inflation, or labor market conditions. Positive surprises in growth or inflation cooling could drive risk-on sentiment, while signs of a slowing economy or stubborn inflation might increase market volatility. Bond markets may see notable movement depending on the GDP and Core PCE figures, while the US dollar’s trajectory will largely depend on labor market and inflation data. Investors should prepare for potential volatility across sectors, particularly in interest rate-sensitive areas like technology and real estate.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeTools
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above. Invalidation is below 5950. bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish. Invalidation is above 6020. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P ES Short setup target 5811 / Put SPY target 574Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) has already found resistance at the Fib level 78.6% (6057.75) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 7) has closed below retracement Fib level 38.2% (5963.75). My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go down to hit first target at Fib level -27.2% (5811.50). S&P CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 5811.50, Target 2 at -61.8% (5731) and Target 3 at -78.6 (5691.75) Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (5991.25). Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart (Down Fib from 602.48 to 580.50) shows price to go down to Target 1 at -27.2% (574.52), Target 2 at -61.8% (566.92) and Target 3 at -78.6 (563.22) Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (591.50).
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by rose_excellence
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong buying into US close and I expect 5900 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday. The bear channel is valid until broken, so I want to either long closer to 5800 or short closer to 5900. current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle on the daily tf) key levels: 5800 - 6020 bull case: Bulls want to hit 5900 again and the bear trend line from the descending triangle. Their breakout late today is reasonably strong to expect follow-through tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we see early weakness and then a lower high around 5830/5840 before we move higher. Invalidation is below 5795. bear case: Bears will likely wait for 5900 and the bear trend line before they initiate bigger shorts again. Overall we see more two-sided trading today than a strong bull trend, which means the upside is likely limited and prior resistance will hold. Bears want to hit 5800 and likely somewhat lower to retest the October and November lows. Invalidation is above 6030. short term: Bearish closer to 5900 to trade back down to 5800 and longs only on a decent dip below 5850 again for target 5900. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high. Clear range 5820 - 5840 which was amazing to trade back and forth.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ID: 2025 - 0021.13.2025 2nd trade of 2025 executed today. Trade entry at 158 DTE (days to expiration). Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13. Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved. IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days. Happy Trading! -kevin
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Kevins