Es Levels & Targets Aug 8thExpect more two way volatility today.
As of now: Bounce is underway. 5228 is res, 5211 is support. Staying above keeps 5250-53, 5273+ in play. 5211 fails, retest 5185-91 again
ES1! trade ideas
ES / MES/ SPX / SPYMy ES, SPX & SPY charts are "busy" with scalp levels (Using MES)
The current short-term H&S pattern has played out, but it's possible we make a neckline around 5000 for a much larger H&S, similar to what we saw in late 2021 into 2022.
IF we form a neckline at 5000 and create a right shoulder (5400ish), and that neckline is later broken the downside target would be 4300ish.
In theory, H&S target is the same distance between the neckline and head. 2022's neckline to peak to trough was almost 1:1; it did miss by a little. Low was 3843 and in theory, should have hit around 3775 (it needed to go 1.7% lower to hit) but that extremely close.
If the labor market weakens further , and we see a mild recession, this wouldn't be far-fetched.
Expected EPS for 2024 = 245
Using a recession multiple of 17/18x P/E and 5% EPS growth vs the 10-15% expected, earnings would be 257ish.
At 4300, and 257 earnings, the P/E would be 16.7x
Bear Flag or bottom? And, the Japanese Yen Carry Trade...The debate among traders is if this is a real bear flag that's forming and there's another leg down for the indices? Or, if the bottom, had be set by the lows on Monday.
I believe that the lows were established on Monday and the indices are consolidating and will move upward soon. This consolidation period also allows the moving averages to catch up after the fast decline we had experienced.If the selloff is caused by Japanese Yen carry trade then it is a one-time event without much lasting effect. As I mentioned before - most of the Macro trends point to a higher year end - consumption, jobs, liquidity.
Reality maybe settling inReality may be settling in the S&P 500 that it overreacted to the possibility of a recession. With this in mind, be cautious if you're on the short side of this market.
Long S&P 500 setup as bulls absorb big selling volumes S&P 500 E-minis have absorbed plenty of selling over the past few sessions but are yet to take the lows struck on Monday. While that doesn’t mean they won’t, it looks like futures may be settling into a new sideways range between 5350 on the topside and 5154 on the downside. Granted, the latter is only a minor level that was breached in the peak of the market puke on Monday, but the dip was bought aggressively below the level.
While signals on momentum like RSI (14) and MACD point to continued downside risks, sitting near the bottom of the newly established range, a long setup could be on the cards if we see risk-reward of the trade improve. It’s not a high probability setup, so if we’re going to go against the trend, we don’t want to be risking a lot.
Pullbacks towards 5154 offer one entry point, allowing for a stop to be placed below Monday’s low for protection. The trade target would be the top of the range at 5350. Those wishing to get in now could do so with a stop below 5154 for protection. Target would be the same as the preferred setup.
From a fundamental perspective, Thursday’s US jobless claims data may be influential on the trade with a stronger-than-expected outcome likely to ease concerns about the US economic trajectory, and potentially the outlook for corporate earnings.
DS
AMP Futures - Introducing NEW TICK Charts (Beta)In this idea we will demonstrate how to access the NEW TICK charts using Tradingview.
ES Approching weekly treendlineES Apporching long-term trend line, BELOW 100 EMA, and already blew through threw daily trendline and could hit the next ema and trendline support on the weekly.
ES Price ACtion Review 8-7-24Going over the RTH ES price action. reflecting on how we could have played it better and which signals were the ones to trade. looking forward to the Overnight session and how we want to position ourselves.
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise.
current market cycle: Bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5300
bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150.
Invalidation is below 5090.
bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above.
Invalidation is above 5280.
short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
1/3AWR+ to 1/3ADR- simple 1:4RR !1/3AWR+ was like a resistance and from this level I targeted 1/3ADR- simple bread & butter setup. Just checkout my profile! Every day there is a setup
ES soybean oil8 7 24 Here I made some comparisons between the es and soybean oil. I made my point in the video so there's no need to spend a lot of time on this introduction. I believe the biggest problem Traders have aside from not having enough capital, is that the biggest problem they have is the way they think and their inability to recognize it and make meaningful changes. and because of this inability to change they end up trading to a personal psychology filled with remorse and disappointment and anger and hopelessness...... and they don't know how to change. as I write this introduction it occurs to me that this is not so much different from my efforts over the past year or so to lose weight, to stop eating sugar and most carbohydrates even though it would be good for me. and I still eat sugar and carbohydrates and I have lost weight....... but it reminds me That most of us have our demons and that if we want to improve our lives we have to spend time and acknowledge what the demons are and what we need to do to change. I've never made a business of teaching people about trading for me to make money. but there have been a few people that I've tried to help because they didn't know how to trade or they didn't make money when they trade and I would tell them that they need to study the market and look for Clues and then test their Insight without risking money because the risk of financial loss sabotages the ability of most people to learn and learning takes time and you have to draw the lines if you know what they are on the chart before you start trading.whatever your internal dialogue is like.... I will speak for myself so I don't offend anyone.... I don't understand how I could trade with fear or remorse or anger...or a sense that I had some control....not to change the market but to take a good trade with a small stop and a reasonable reward and that I could relate it to the way other buyers and sellers including the smart money and the retail money.... and do this with a stop that isn't going to make me angry or fearful because I've tested it and have experienced from the past I believe most people start trading to make money. what they really should do in my opinion if they want to trade.... is to learn how to think before they trade.
SPX500 Sentiment Pause - Will Risk Off Return?It is very helpful as a trader to split Market scenarios into two categories; risk on, and risk off.
Risk on environments are times when risk is ON for traders. They want to invest, and take risks. The SPX, for example, is one of these assets as there are some stocks which have higher inherent risk based on their history.
Risk off environments are when we see fear flood in and risk is OFF. Investments that require high risk are taken away and the money is plugged into safe haven assets, like JPY/CHF or cash / fixed income assets.
We have just seen the two be played out in the same couple of weeks. This has stalled on a few words out the fed calming the seas.
However, nothing can stop one bad print coming it and it trashing Markets, nor can the BOJ easily stop their situation with the yen and unwindining.
I would not be surprised if markets turn over again, so be careful on any sizes and entries.
ES Levels & Targets Aug 7thThe top target yesterday for ES was 5238-42. We hit it to the tick, then flushed 100 points. Overnight buyers retested it. 5338-42 backtested Sundays sell, and reclaiming it is very bullish
As of now: currently building a base . 5313, 5298=supports. Staying above keeps 5342 again, 5365+ in play. 5298 fails, dip 5274 once again.
OverNight ES Price Action Review 8-7-24Going over the Overnight session looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. how we want to position for the day.
Waiting for clarity of directionThe structure from the S&P 500 on Tuesday provided that rest day and implies a market waiting for clarity of direction. It needs an excuse to make a move. I also think it's recognizing it overreacted to the possibility of a recession.
ES Price Action REview 8-6-24Going over the ES price action RTH looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. every day there is 5-6 moves the market gives us and its our job to find those and then take ACTION, use our knowledge to take action. knowledge is not for philosophy. talk way less, listen way more. that is the way.
AMP Futures - Order ticket - TradingView MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to execute trades from the order ticket using TradingView mobile app.
ES Bear FlagES nearly filled the gap today from Sunday evening, but rejected before it did. That was also another test of 5300 that briefly overshot before erasing the entire move. This is the second time in the past week where ES and NQ have rallied substantially and then reversed the entire move in 24 hours. The volatility I have been warning about is here and this is the new normal until VX cools off, if it does anytime soon. I'm not sure if it will, but for now I see this action as extremely concerning for bulls.
ES did have a very nice inverse H&S that led to today's rally, but it quickly stalled and failed after it broke 5300. We saw some large orders coming in up there around 5310 and 5300, which I think is significant enough to note. ES has been forming this clean bear flag since opening Sunday night and today it rejected off the top end and came all the way back to the bottom end and closed nearly right on the line. This is critical if bulls can not save it here, ES and NQ are likely to break below the April lows this week if bulls do not step in.
That would just makes things a whole lot worse. As I've said, this is just the beginning. Price will not go straight down, we'll have rallies and short squeezes. However, there is a high probably of continued downside for at least 2-3 months in my opinion. If we break April lows, the next major target is 2023 lows, which seems very far away for most. Price can get there faster than anyone can imagine, be careful out there.
ES1! Monthly ButterflyLooks like a bearish butterfly is complete on ES,
Typical targets are usually between the A-C points or possibly extending down to around 2800 or so which would be a pretty large correction
Medium term fib cluster levels shown for possible short term bounce
If it really starts to fall and in all honesty I think looking at some of the FANG stocks that have such a large weighting on the indices and the JPY carry trades unwinding I think a deeper retracement is likely as there is a general sense of de-risking...
No trade for me but pretty clear example
Morning Session REview ES 8-6-24Going over the morning session. looking back at the clues the market left for us. coming up with a plan for rest of the RTH session into the Close.
Es Levels & targets Aug 6thAfter sellers gave us an incredible sell on Monday, yesterday saw the 1st short squeeze with 5191 reclaim triggering longs. In the plan, i wrote I was looking for 5252, 5274, 5300, then 5338.. we clipped 5300 then dipped from there
As of now: 5250-52, 5230 are supports. Staying above, keeps 5274, 5300, 5338 in play. 5230 fails, retest 5191
OverNight Price Action REview ES 8-6-24Going over the Overnight Price Action looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. how we want to position for the Morning session.
SPX500 Plans; Crucial Understanding Of SentimentPowell has just mentioned broader disinflation occurring, and also the need to be less restrictive on rates.
This is propelling SPX long momentum.
If you are looking to trade the SPX, there's a few things you need to know first.
