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ES1! trade ideas

2024-12-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Parabolic buy climax which will end soon. Longs after pullbacks are ok but I will only look for weakness. This is climactic and unsustainable. comment: Strongest bull bars that late in the trend? Tough. I have two higher targets still. First is the bull trend line to around 6160 and second is a measured move target to 6300. Bears are doing nothing but it’s also unlikely that we just continue higher in this tight of a channel on the daily chart. Market is on it’s last legs up and these windfall profits will get taken off the table before they disappear. You don’t get bullish this late in a trend, you get cautious. current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon key levels: 6000 - 6170 bull case: Bulls are in complete control but it’s overbought and climactic. the 4h 20ema has been bought for two weeks now and longs near it make sense. Buying above 6050 does not Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Market is overbought and we will likely test down to the 4h 20ema soon. We can’t expect it to just trade through it and we would likely see another bounce up. Bears have nothing until then. Wait for the clear sign that bigger profit taking has started and we do not make new ath every 15m. Slight chance 6102 was the high and we go down to 6000 tomorrow. Invalidation is above 6170. short term: Bullish until proven otherwise but will happen sooner than later. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere. Again.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.01 - 12.06.24Last Week : Last week market opened up inside the Value of this 930s - 650s HTF Range, beginning of the week we were able to stay around the Value and balance inside this 620 - 970s Intraday Range with pushes out of Value that got sold back in. Wednesday again opened over Value and sold back in with RTH Volume but closed right under VAH to finish regular trading week. Shortened holiday sessions didnt have much supply so we were able to hold over VAH which build up stops that got squeezed in upper Edge once end of week covering came in on Friday. This Week : This is technically the first tag of this new HTF Range Edge since our first push towards it failed just shy of it. More often than not first tests of big areas like an Edge provide a reaction in the oppositive direction, of course we could say the push that gave us selling from this area the first time was it and that this time we may hold long or continue but because this move was during shortened holiday sessions we need to watch out with looking for continuation from here unless market can hold over 640s - 50s, stay around/inside the Edge AND get through 670s with Edge top and start holding over it. Until this happens I would be looking for us to either try and balance around this Current Intraday Range of 620s - 670 which we pushed into Friday or if the buying just pushes us up during lighter volume days and wont stick come next week then we can see a move back towards VAH and if we can't hold over it then its possible to see continuation back inside the Value/Mean and if we have enough supply a push for lower VAL. We have HTF stops built up there under 970s if that area gets taken it could bring in more selling to give us an Edge to Edge move from bottom to the top, if we can't take the stops at VAL then we could continue to balance inside this Value building Supply. This is new month and last month of the year, will we start our first week with a sell towards the buyers who are under 940s or do we have enough buying to give us a hold over Value and try to test new one ? On Daily TF we are still inside a 5720s - 6070s Range and currently we are inside Daily Edge, if we can't get through it then possible return towards Daily VAH which is in 980 - 60s Area.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Max bullish. New ath is done, now I have two upper targets left for this year. We have 2 decent upper bull trend lines where only the #1 target of 6300 fits. The other would be 6450 but too far and too low probability for now. Bears would need anything below 5850 to kill the rally. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again. comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs . current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6500) bull case: Last hurrah. 6150 is my next target and if we don’t stop, 6500. Is this a bubble? Yes. Can you short this? No. Trends can go much further than anyone can imagine and your account can not sustain the drawdown of early shorts. Breakout is clear, as is the chart. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Non-starter is this here. Daily close below 5850, then I start looking at this with a bigger bullish eye. Invalidation is above 6070. outlook last week: short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now. → Last Sunday we traded 5987 and now we are at 6051. Perfect outlook. short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Full Gameplan For Monday Dec 2ndPlan for Monday **Supports:** • Major: 6045, 6032, 6024, 6014, 5988-93, 5983, 5961-5959, 5954, 5943, 5933, 5914, 5893, 5878-81, 5859-62, 5843, 5820. • Minor: 6038, 6033, 6018, 6009, 6002, 5976, 5972, 5948, 5928, 5922, 5921, 5908, 5904, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5854, 5850, 5836, 5828. **Resistances:** • Major: 6063, 6088, 6100, 6119, 6131, 6143, 6162, 6181, 6195-6200, 6223, 6242, 6253, 6274-78. • Minor: 6055, 6072, 6093, 6106, 6123, 6153, 6168, 6172, 6190, 6206, 6217, 6233, 6260, 6264. **Market Context and Strategy** Current Position: I am still trailing my 10% long runner from the 5988 reclaim last Monday, with adds already completed at 6002 and 6025. Last week was an extremely profitable session, and now is a time to sit back and wait for new opportunities. This means there is nothing for me to do until price resets. This means either 1) A sharp selloff or 2) ES starts to build another consolidation that gives me some structure to work with. Closing at all-time highs limits actionable trades at the open: 1. Longs: Risky due to potential retrace as normal volume returns Monday, and no current structure supports a strong continuation without price discovery. 2. Shorts: Not viable for my strategy as they go against strength and the prevailing uptrend, which is a very low win rate strategy. 3. Consolidation Risk: Very High, due to shorts and longs being of high risk... ultimately giving the need for the market to digest the recent parabolic move. Additionally, “Hangover Mondays” often see ES retrace a significant portion of a holiday rally, reflecting the shift from low-volume, artificial, hype holiday trading turning to real money trading basically. Of course this doesn’t always happen (there is no always in markets), but its a fairly strong seasonal tendency particularly after Thanksgiving week. **Bull Case for Monday:** The bull case depends on defending Friday’s breakout levels while building structure for continuation. Key zones for bulls to hold include: 1. 6045 (Major Support): The first key level to test. A flush and reclaim here or tight flagging would signal continued strength. 2. 6032 (Major Support): A failed breakdown at this level would confirm strong demand, providing an opportunity for longs. Upside targets: • Initial resistance at 6063. If bulls can consolidate or break through here, the next moves aim for 6072, 6088, and eventually 6100. Structure to watch: • A tight flag or basing above 6045 but below 6063 going into monday would signal readiness for a breakout continuation. **Bear Case for Monday:** There is no significant bear case unless 5993 fails, but short-term bearish setups could emerge if: 1. 6032 Breaks Down: A loss of this level would invalidate Friday’s breakout, signaling that the holiday rally may have been fake. 2. Sharp Flush to 6024: This would align with the typical “hangover” effect, where ES retraces the low-volume holiday move. Watch for failed breakdowns or reactions at this level before shorting below it. **Key to trading breakdowns:** • Do not chase. Look for: • A flush to 6024, followed by a reclaim and bounce, or • A failed breakdown at 6032 to gauge where buyers step in. • If these recalims subsequently fail, momentum could build toward lower supports like 6014, 5988-93, or deeper levels. My Short Entry Strategy: Wait for a final bounce attempt at the level (traps happen more than anything, so in order to short, you need to wait for a trap to happen first), then short after sellers flush the lows of the structure. This ensures demand has been exhausted first. More on this in Private group **Summary for Monday:** A light trading day with the following key takeaways: • Bullish Lean: Hold levels like 6045, 6032 (failed breakdown possible) to resume the breakout and test 6063, 6088, 6100+. • Bearish Risk: A failure of 6032 invalidates Friday’s breakout, likely leading to a deeper retrace to 6024, 6014, or lower. Be patient and wait for price discovery to reveal the next structure for setups. Avoid chasing moves in either direction and focus on clear opportunities with defined risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg