Origins in Supply and Demand - Flag Chain ConceptsI have been using approaches like this for some time now. I hope you find it useful.
Thanks
ES1! trade ideas
ES OverNight Price ACtion Review 8-23-24going over the overnight Price Action ES also a bit of yesterday. looking for clues as to how the market wants to trade and looking for opportunities for todays Jackson Hole Event.
Resend: Full ES Plan For Today // Sent Out YesterdayPlan for Friday: Supports are: 5593-5588 (major), 5582, 5572, 5567 (major), 5560, 5555, 5540-45 (major), 5528 (major), 5519, 5512 (major), 5502.
Tomorrow is the Jackson Hole speech at 10am, and it could be as unpredictable as FOMC or CPI days, so trade cautiously. First off, size down—there's no point in risking big money in a market driven by algos and noise. Losing money on a known volatile day is a choice. Most professional traders have already called it a week and are skipping tomorrow—take note. Professionals focus on preserving profits, while retail traders often chase quick gains. This difference in mindset is why pros size down or stay out, while retail traders often lose money. Expect traps tomorrow—like with CPI/FOMC days, the first few moves might be fakeouts. It’s smart to wait for failed breakdowns rather than diving in. Also, avoid overtrading. Stick to level-to-level trades because price action could get complex and hard to predict. My approach will be to take one trade and protect it, only risking profits on a second trade if necessary. Tomorrow is all about preserving capital for me, and I’m only risking 10% of this week's profits. Keep in mind that last year’s Jackson Hole reaction was very bullish, but 2022’s was extremely bearish. Be ready for anything. First support is 5593-88, which we’ve been holding for a couple of hours. I’ll watch for flushes and reclaims of this zone. Given that it’s Jackson Hole day, if the market wants to sell off, it could blow through multiple supports, so I’ll be patient and wait for failed breakdowns before considering any longs. 5567 is the next support down, but I’m not interested in catching a falling knife tomorrow. Below that, 5540-45 is another level to watch. On a regular day, I’d look to buy here, but tomorrow I’ll wait for reactions before making any moves.
Resistances are 5604 (major), 5610, 5618-20 (major), 5623, 5630 (major), 5636, 5643, 5653 (major), 5661 (major), 5668, 5672, 5678, 5685 (major). I don’t short in uptrends, especially on Jackson Hole day. If you’re into risky trades, 5685 and 5705 might be worth considering, but it’s not my style.
Buyers case tomorrow, even after 11 days of rallying, a pullback would be normal and healthy. Remember, pullbacks in ES tend to be sharp drops, not slow grinds. Big picture, buyers are still in control above the breakout around 5450. Short-term, as long as we’re above 5588-93, they could push higher, targeting 5630 and 5652, with potential new highs after that.
Sellers case: it starts with a break below 5588-93, but be cautious—Jackson Hole days are tricky and full of traps. Ideally (on a normal day), I’d want to see perhaps one more bounce and/or failed breakdown here. After this, I am short 5584 or so. Level to level profit takes.
In general, Its Jackson Hole day, and the market will be on a mission to take your money. Size down. I don’t like “predicting” ahead of a day like this (since its impossible) but if I had to give a lean, its always to defer to the trend. As long as 5588-93 holds, we can simply resume up back to 5630, 5653. Perhaps final reaction, then breakout to 5685+. Sell<5588.
20240823 ESI anticipate more upside before the 10am HI news. The d bs raid will be ideal. There is only upside retracement to the top of the ORG Thursday on the chart though. The high volatility is probable today that is why it is very important to see more upside before the 10am (TGIF enviroment will be generated)that will provide the base for the later downside move and the DOL with new LOD.
AMP Futures - Alerts - Tradingview MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to create alerts using Tradingview Mobile.
The market is readyThe S&P 500 market is ready for Powell's comments on Friday. I was expecting a more quiet positive close but the market broke to the downside with sellers in place. However, I am not looking for a big move to the downside and positive positive close on Friday.
August 23 Fridays planMy 3 year backtesting shows typically mondays are up and fridays end down. That doesn't mean we short all day...
I think we go up from here based on trend, candles, elliot, and this new chart overaly with my friend AnotherDAPTrader's strategy DAP Scalp 1 MAX.. Any questions ask him please. point is we have a doji above pivot and a 3 day ABC correction typical of wave 2. we should go up.
s3.tradingview.com
and I think we close lower by the end of the day on friday, after the morning
Also kudos to AlgoAlpha for his excellent indicator called Supertrended RSI
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Strong day by the bears for most markets and on higher volume too. After climactic moves, many traders keep tight stops and won’t let the market run too much against them because they want to secure their profits. Does that mean the market is reversing? Probably not. But deep pullbacks are always possible. In trading rangs the daily 20ema and the 50% (midpoint of the range) are always magnets, so always mark them on your chart. For tomorrow I expect more volatility since we have BOJ Ueda + FED JPOW speaking.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Huge day for the bears by closing below 5600. I do think it would be fitting if we close the week with a huge bear reversal candle below 5550 or even 5500. Can we get there? Unlikely but not impossible. Could we also close above 5721? You bet. No one knows where we are going because market has moved in such extremes the past two weeks, that absolutely everything is possible tomorrow. Odds still somewhat favor the bulls to close the week above 5600 but just slightly. Daily ema is around 5500 and that are two good reasons for market to test that price. Anything above 5640 would surprise me tbh.
current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart
key levels: 5500 -5670
bull case: Bulls tried to fight it today but the down moves saw a big increase in volume and bulls could not keep the market above 5600. They need to stay above this price or risk much more downside because I do think many stops will be around 5580-5595 tomorrow. Their first target is a 15m bar close above the ema and then the 1h ema to turn the market neutral again. 50% pullback from today is 5625 and that is also a magnet for tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5580.
bear case: Bears surprised me today because the strength of the selling was not expected. Market grinded higher first but since the US open we just saw big selling coming through and every rip was sold. If bears do not keep the momentum going tomorrow, they risk another reversal and potentially another meltup to a new ath but that will strongly depend on Jpow and Ueda and how the market will interpret their speeches. Can you forecast this? Don’t bother. Mark key levels on your chart and hop along on the breakout tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 5670.
short term: 5600 is neutral and I wait. Bears need follow through selling below 5580 and bulls a strong reversal. Above 5625 I will consider longs.
medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Sell US open. No reason not to and no reason to exit until 5600 where market stalled too much.
ICT lunch macro S&P500 long trade +3000 bucks win in 20min ICT lunch macro retracement setup long, targeting buyside luquidity, after a huge downside during the am session after 1min market structure shift and old NWOG support
Why Monitoring S&P 500 Futures is My Morning Trading Ritual!Every morning before the trading day begins, I have a ritual: I analyze the S&P 500 futures. For me, this isn’t just a routine—it's a crucial step in gauging the market's direction. The S&P 500 futures offer a snapshot of market sentiment and potential movements long before the regular trading session opens.
By examining the overnight action, I can identify key levels of support and resistance, and understand the market's mood—whether it's risk-on or risk-off. This early insight helps me set the tone for my trading day, allowing me to make informed decisions, anticipate possible trends, and adjust my strategies accordingly.
In a market where timing and positioning are everything, starting my day with a clear picture of where the broader market might be headed gives me a competitive edge. It’s about being proactive rather than reactive—preparing for the day’s opportunities and challenges with confidence.
Trading the ES cautiously, other areas are safer investmentsI explain in the video but ultimately I've only done 2 ES trades over the last 2 months, and avoided two false trading signals. The trading signals were not supported by multiple timeframe trends nor did I feel the economic data around them supported them either.
You can watch the video if you want the feedback overall. Ultimately, there is a GC trade forming today for a buy position at the close of today depending on what it looks like. I may just tap out my current contracts on the 6E and 6S though and take off work until after my trip in September.
There is going to likely be a buy signal on the ES tomorrow or Monday. At this point, all things being what they are, I think I'm going to ignore it.
Safe trading, remember your risk management.
ES OVernight PRice Action Review 8-22-24Going over ES price Action Overnight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we'll position for the morning session.
ES1! Future and index level for 22/Aug/2024 My bull index idea is not done yet. market makers already set up their positions for this today and tomorrow,
Bullish market !
My private indicators still indicate market is going high and high previous high level,
previous high level will be broken down.
CKZ Q&A Series- What is your Morning Routine?Pre-Market Preparation:
Review Overnight News and Earnings Reports:** I start by checking for any significant news, earnings reports, or events that might impact the market or specific stocks. This includes macroeconomic reports, company announcements, and sector-specific news.
- **Check Futures Markets:** I look at the S&P 500 futures (often the /ES or E-mini) to gauge the overall market sentiment heading into the day.
2. Tools and Platforms:
TradingView:** I use TradingView for charting and technical analysis. This platform allows me to apply various indicators, analyze multiple timeframes, and set alerts for key levels.
- **VX Algo Indicators:** I rely heavily on my proprietary VX Algo Signals, which include the VX Volume Algo, VX Bands, VX Super Mac D, and VX Moving Averages to identify potential buy and sell signals.
News Aggregators and Twitter: I monitor news aggregators and Twitter feeds for any last-minute developments that could influence the market.
Algorithmic Buy Signals:
VX Algo Signals: I look for buy signals generated by my VX Algo on the 48m timeframe, focusing on signals that align with other indicators and market conditions. I track the performance of these signals during the day and night, as this helps refine my strategy over time.
AMP Futures - Layouts - Tradingview MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to access different chart layouts using TradingView Mobile app.
Holding its ownOn Wednesday, the S&P 500 held its own with a positive close and optimistic news about the possibility of a rate cut in September. With this type of environment and Powell speaking on Friday, look for another positive close on Thursday but not a large move. The objective would be a close above 5670.
What Wall of Worry? Path of Least Resistance for NowI reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory.
The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance actual hold for a beat.
All US Markets closing green today, Russell 2000 led the indexes today with +1.30%
DXY hitting fresh lows, but 101 and 100 are major technical support levels that I'm watching.
Review at your convenience. Thanks for watching!!!
ES Morning Price Action REview 8-21-24Going over our Main Focus list reviewing the Overnight price action, looking for clues the market left us and our plan for the day.
Es levels & Targets Aug 21stMonday, my target for the rally was 5629, and ES certainly confirmed it. We saw it tested five times from above yesterday and another five times from below. The 5629-5612 range has been nothing but pure chop—overtrading in this zone is a recipe for losing money.
As of now: Buyers need to hold the line at 5623 and 5612 to keep the targets of 5636, 5642, and 5651+ in play. If 5612 fails, we’re likely heading down to 5604 or even 5574.
Today's ES1! future option level Gamma level will push market today
Gamma option energy will drive market value and it will keep push more
NVDA, INTC etc
The S&P 500 May RetraceInitially extremely bullish at those lows, this rally has some internal qualities that smack more of a massive short squeeze and mere bear market rally, rather than a genuine bullish rally.
This may begin to retrace off a lower high—even though we're close to a new ATH, I'm doubtful that it can make it.
If this retraces, the initial target will be this trend line.
AMP Futures - Custom Watchlist - TradingView MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to create custom watchlist using the TradingView mobile app.
Setting upThe S&P 500 price action on Tuesday provides the set up as the market waits for the Fed minutes being released on Wednesday. I still think the bias is for move to the upside but with fundamentals being released how the market will move is 50-50.
