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ES1! trade ideas

Look Below /Above And Fail In trading, "look above or look below and fail" is a specific market behavior observed on candlestick charts. This term describes a situation where the price of an asset moves beyond a certain level (either a high or a low) but fails to sustain that movement and retreats back to the original range. Here’s a breakdown of the concept: Look Above or Look Below: This phrase refers to the price action of an asset either pushing above a resistance level or dropping below a support level. These levels are often watched by traders as significant indicators of potential price movement continuation or reversal. And Fail: The “and fail” part of the phrase occurs when, after breaking a key level (above or below), the price does not maintain its new trajectory. Instead, it returns back into its prior trading range. This is a failure to establish new ground, suggesting the breakout or breakdown was not supported by enough market conviction. Implications in Trading: False Breakout/Breakdown: This scenario is often referred to as a false breakout or breakdown. It can be a trap for traders who may enter positions expecting the price to continue in the direction of the break, only to find themselves in adverse positions when the price reverses. Market Sentiment: Such price actions can be indicative of the underlying market sentiment and can lead to significant price moves once the failure is recognized. If many traders acted on the initial break, the reversal could be rapid and sharp due to a rush of traders exiting positions. Strategy Formulation: Traders might use this behavior to formulate strategies, such as entering trades on a pullback into the range after a failed breakout, anticipating that the price will continue within the range. Understanding these dynamics helps traders manage risks and set more precise entry and exit points based on the validation or failure of breakouts and breakdowns.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
Full ES Trading Plan for July 10thPlan for Wednesday: supports are 5627-30 (major), 5618-20 (major), 5615, 5611, 5604 (major), 5598 (major), 5593, 5585 (major). We are in very low-quality trading conditions, which will persist until an external catalyst, like the CPI report on Thursday, brings more volatility. For now, we face low-quality, post-rally, midsummer fluctuations. As noted yesterday, if you plan to overtrade in these conditions, it's best to shut down your computer and save your capital. For now: 5627-30 to 5641 is the new chop zone, with everything in this being untradeable slop. 5627-30 is first support down, but has been tested heavily today so is no longer a reliable level. I would only consider engaging it if sellers can flush to 5627ish or lower then buyers pop back above 5630 to trap sellers, but even that is poor quality in the conditions we are in. Below there is 5620 support. One can try longs here to catch a few points. If sellers take us lower than that, we probably flush quite hard and I would not be interested in trying longs again until 5604. sellers flushing it, then buyers reclaiming it is always safer than buying direct. Resistances are: 5634, 5640-42 (major), 5644, 5647 (major), 5654, 5658 (major), 5664, 5670, 5674 (major), 5682 (major), 5687, 5697, 5708, 5717. All members know, I have a hard rule not to short resistances in ES, so I won’t be shorting any of the above resistances. For those who like these low win rate trades though, 5658 would be one spot to try shorts at... as would 5674. 5640-42 may also have one final dip left in it but a high risk. Buyers case: Nothing has changed, to be honest. The levels just vary slightly each day as time goes on. For tomorrow, buyers need 5620 to hold. If it does, ES is likely to form a structure between 5620 and 5640. From there, buyers would likely push up again, targeting 5647, 5658, and then 5674+. Normally, I provide entries for adding on strength, but given our stretched position, there aren't any high-quality opportunities. Perhaps look for pops above 5633-34, but be prepared to enter and take profits aggressively at the first level up." Sellers case: Starts with the failure of 5618-20, with 5630-27 failure as the initial micro trigger. For the 5618-20 failure, I need to see a test here followed by a bounce or a failed breakdown to fully use up the level. After this, I'd consider going short around 5617 for a level-to-level dip. Refer to previous plans for the risks associated with these types of trades." In general, we continue to experience post-rally chop, and I will maintain light trading until conditions change. This huge move buyers have gave us for the past week could end abruptly and without warning, likely due to a catalyst now though, and it could happen at any time. Until then, I must follow the trend only, as that's what allows me to maintain an 85% + win rate for the year. As long as the 5620 level holds (and if the bulls are highly motivated, 5630 will also hold), we can establish a base around 5620-5642 before beginning the next upward movement to 5647, 5658, 5674, or higher. If 5620 fails, sellers dip us.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
4
We need a Covering, Even if it comes all the way back.Since Nov 2023 been in a two leg trend. Half way up the second leg, and we could just continue in this sad, slow manner. However, all the small and mid cap and TESLA are ready to really step up. But we need a preliminary surge and full retracement. Like I'm long RIVIAN, but if it gets out, I'll sell all at the peak and rebuy down near my original price. But I hope today is that day. Quick week of up and back and then that COULD give us a chance for a true turn and burn. If not, if we go back below this trend line, i think there is a real chance we avoid the bubble and we keep going up into maybe September. JPOW possibly rate cuts and we go back down to like 4700 to get back in balance before any new rally. Clearly, my accounts prefer the bubble.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by CaptainLogik
Managing Markets Reaction to PowellE-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5625.25, up 3.75 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,659.75, up 39.00 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures settled at a fresh record highs to kick off a long week that begins heating up today. Fed Chair Powell visits Congress for his first of a two-day testimony at 9:00 am CT, before July CPI data is due Thursday. There is additional comments around that time from the Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Barr and Treasury Secretary Yellen, but most interesting is Fed Governor Bowman due to speak at 12:30 pm CT. She is known as the most hawkish voice at the Fed, and it begs the question, is she planned to balance a more dovish Fed Chair Powell? Certainly, we would believe comments from Powell hold more weight. After a consolidation off early morning highs yesterday, price action in E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures ramped in the final hour, led by tech. This is easily distinguished from the E-mini Dow’s silence. We highlight major three-star support aligning that late afternoon low with unchanged on the week at 5619.25-5621.50 in the E-mini S&P and 20,617-20,621 in the E-mini NQ. Furthermore, price action is firm above our near-term momentum indicator detailed as our Pivot and point of balance below. We believe continued price action above here as the day unfolds stokes higher prices. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 5640.50**, 5673.25*** Pivot: 5630 Support: 5625.25-5626**, 5619.25-5621.50***, 5615**, 5605-5608.25**, 5585-5590.25***, 5574.50-5576.75**, 5563.75-5569.75**** NQ (September) Resistance: 20,770**, 21,000-21,016**** Pivot: 20,685-20,694 Support: 20,617-20,621***, 20,588-20,600**, 20,496-20,523***, 20,411-20,428***, 20,373**, 20,216-20,274**** Micro Bitcoin (July) Yesterday’s close: Settled 56,755, up 70 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 58,130-58,845***, 59,825-60,390*** Pivot: 56,755-57,200 Support: 54,455-55,190***, 53,215-53,205**, 51,687-51,750****, 47,770-49,430*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Exploring Bullish Plays with E-minis, Micro E-minis and OptionsIntroduction The S&P 500 futures market offers a variety of ways for traders to capitalize on bullish market conditions. This article explores several strategies using E-mini and Micro E-mini futures contracts as well as options on futures. Whether you are looking to trade outright futures contracts, create sophisticated spreads, or leverage options strategies, this guide will help you design effective bullish plays while managing your risk. Choosing the Right Contract Size When considering a bullish play on the S&P 500 futures, the first decision is choosing the appropriate contract size. The E-mini and Micro E-mini futures contracts offer different levels of exposure and risk. E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Standardized contracts linked to the S&P 500 index with a point value = $50 per point. Suitable for traders seeking significant exposure to market movements. Greater potential for profits but also higher risk due to larger contract size. TradingView ticker symbol is ES1! Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for E-mini S&P 500 futures is approximately $12,400 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions. Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures: Contracts representing one-tenth the value of the standard E-mini S&P 500 futures. Each point move in the Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures equals $5. Ideal for traders who prefer lower exposure and risk. Allows for more precise risk management and position sizing. TradingView ticker symbol is MES1! Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures is approximately $1,240 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions. Choosing between E-mini and Micro E-mini futures depends on your risk tolerance, account size, and trading strategy. Smaller contracts like the Micro E-minis provide flexibility, especially for newer traders or those with smaller accounts. Bullish Futures Strategies Outright Futures Contracts: Buying E-mini or Micro E-mini futures outright is a straightforward way to express a bullish view on the S&P 500. This strategy involves purchasing a futures contract in anticipation of a rise in the index. Benefits: Direct exposure to market movements. Simple execution and understanding. Ability to leverage positions due to the margin requirements. Risks: Potential for significant losses if the market moves against your position. Requires substantial margin and capital. Mark-to-market losses can trigger margin calls. Example Trade: Buy one E-mini S&P 500 futures contract at 5,588.00. Target price: 5,645.00. Stop-loss price: 5,570.00. This trade aims to profit from a 57-point rise in the S&P 500, with a risk of a 18-point drop. Futures Spreads: 1. Calendar Spreads: A calendar spread, also known as a time spread, involves buying (or selling) a longer-term futures contract and selling (or buying) a shorter-term futures contract with the same underlying asset. This strategy profits from the difference in price movements between the two contracts. Benefits: Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions. Potential to profit from changes in the futures curve. Risks: Limited profit potential compared to outright positions. Changes in contango could hurt the position. Example Trade: Buy a December E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. Sell a September E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. Target spread: Increase in the difference between the two contract prices. In this example, the trader expects the December contract to gain more value relative to the September contract over time. The profit is made if the spread between the December and September contracts widens. 2. Butterfly Spreads: A butterfly spread involves a combination of long and short futures positions at different expiration dates. This strategy profits from minimal price movement around a central expiration date. It is constructed by buying (or selling) a futures contract, selling (or buying) two futures contracts at a nearer expiration date, and buying (or selling) another futures contract at an even nearer expiration date. Benefits: Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions. Profits from stable prices around the middle expiration date. Risks: Limited profit potential compared to other spread strategies or outright positions. Changes in contango could hurt the position. Example Trade: Buy one December E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. Sell two September E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts. Buy one June E-mini S&P 500 futures contract. In this example, the trader expects the S&P 500 index to remain relatively stable. Bullish Options Strategies 1. Long Calls: Buying call options on S&P 500 futures is a classic bullish strategy. It allows traders to benefit from upward price movements while limiting potential losses to the premium paid for the options. Benefits: Limited risk to the premium paid. Potential for significant profit if the underlying futures contract price rises. Leverage, allowing control of a large position with a relatively small investment. Risks: The potential loss of the entire premium if the market does not move as expected. Time decay, where the value of the option decreases as the expiration date approaches. Example Trade: Buy one call option on E-mini S&P 500 futures with a strike price of 5,500, expiring in 73 days. Target price: 5,645.00. Stop-loss: Premium paid (e.g., 213.83 points x $50 per contract). If the S&P 500 futures price rises above 5,500, the call option gains value, and the trader can sell it for a profit. If the price stays below 5,500, the trader loses only the premium paid. 2. Synthetic Long: Creating a synthetic long involves buying a call option and selling a put option at the same strike price and expiration. This strategy mimics owning the underlying futures contract. Benefits: Similar profit potential to owning the futures contract. Flexibility in managing risk and adjusting positions. Risks: Potential for unlimited losses if the market moves significantly against the position. Requires margin to sell the put option. Example Trade: Buy one call option on E-mini S&P 500 futures at 5,500, expiring in 73 days. Sell one put option on E-mini S&P 500 futures at 5,500, expiring in 73 days. Target price: 5,645.00. The profit and loss (PnL) profile of the synthetic long position would be the same as owning the outright futures contract. If the price rises, the position gains value dollar-for-dollar with the underlying futures contract. If the price falls, the position loses value in the same manner. 3. Bullish Options Spreads: Options are incredibly versatile and adaptable, allowing traders to design a wide range of bullish spread strategies. These strategies can be tailored to specific market conditions, risk tolerances, and trading goals. Here are some popular bullish options spreads: Vertical Call Spreads Bull Call Spreads Call Debit Spreads Ratio Call Spreads Diagonal Call Spreads Calendar Call Spreads Bullish Butterfly Spreads Bullish Condor Spreads Etc. The following Risk Profile Graph represents a Bull Call Spread made of buying the 5,500 call and selling the 5,700 call with 73 to expiration: For detailed explanations and examples of these and other bullish options spread strategies, please refer to the many published ideas under the "Options Blueprint Series." These resources provide in-depth analysis and step-by-step guidance. Trading Plan A well-defined trading plan is crucial for successful execution of any bullish strategy. Here’s a step-by-step guide to formulating your plan: 1.Select the Strategy: Choose between outright futures contracts, calendar or butterfly spreads, or options strategies based on your market outlook and risk tolerance. 2. Determine Entry and Exit Points: Entry price: Define the price level at which you will enter the trade (breakout, UFO support, indicators convergence/divergence, etc.) Target price: Set a realistic target based on technical analysis or market projections. Stop-loss price: Establish a stop-loss level to manage risk and limit potential losses. 3. Position Sizing: Calculate the appropriate position size based on your account size and risk tolerance. Ensure that the position aligns with your overall portfolio strategy. 4. Risk Management: Implement risk management techniques such as using stop-loss orders, hedging, and diversifying positions to protect your capital. Risk management is vital in trading to protect your capital and ensure long-term success Conclusion and Preview for Next Article In this article, we've explored various bullish strategies using E-mini and Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures as well as options on futures. From outright futures contracts to sophisticated spreads and options strategies, traders have multiple tools to capitalize on bullish market conditions while managing their risk effectively. Stay tuned for our next article, where we will delve into bearish plays using similar instruments to navigate downward market conditions. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 3 Best looking bull bars very late in the trend, breaking above two strong resistance lines. 75% that this is a bull trap and we break down Mo/Tu below 5580 and be on our way to test the daily 20ema and the lower bull wedge/channel line. Will short this on weakness on Monday. Next 500-1000 points are made to the downside. Can I be wrong? Absolutely and everything can and will happen in the markets. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Yadayadayada. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got their retest as written and now market is technically free to have a major trend reversal. June was a perfect bull trend from the beginning of the month. Market had 3 legs up with a two legged correction completed now. We could spend more time at the highs in a trading range or have a deeper pullback from here, which is my preferred path forward. The bull trend line will probably be tested around 5460 and there market will decide if it wants to stay above 5400 or get down to 5320/5350. comment: Market tested 5500 twice and since it found no sellers down there, bears stepped aside and bulls printed 3 climactic bull bars very very late in this trend. The odds that this is a legit breakout above multiple resistance lines is very low. Much more likely is a bull trap and market will reverse over the next 1-5 days. current market cycle: Bull trap and the end of this trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback and we will form a trading range where the low is 5000. key levels: 5500 - 5630 bull case: Bulls see this AI bubble as legit and markets can only go up. Breaking above the bull trend line from 2023-01 is ok bc Daddy Jensen is signing breasts. That the markets are only held by 7 stocks is also a big buy signal since most eco indicators are puking. Don’t know what to tell you here. Market can obviously go much higher for longer and we can print a couple of higher highs. But I will never join the “this time it’s different” crowd. The only sure thing before bubbles popping is that markets print more and more ridiculous highs while more and more people say “it’s really different this time” and they always popped and always will. That’s the nature of the game. Am I saying you should short this right now? No. Do you want to buy this at 5621? If your answer is yes, I do hope you make money, enjoy my letter and take something from it. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: 16 Month old bull trend line and couple of more where market want’s to break above on low volume and declining economic activity across the board. Good luck with that. Will never buy into the frenzy. Bull trap most likely and I want to see strong selling before joining. Bears first target is 5500 and shortly after probably the gap close to 5430. Invalidation is above 5630. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until bears get follow through and print lower lows below 5500. I’d short to 5490 and see how market reacts to the daily ema. If the support is weak, more shorting to 5450ish. Absolutely no interest in buying here. → Last Sunday we traded 5521 and now we are at 5621. Meh outlook. Was bearish if market would go below 5500 but it never did, so nothing lost or gained here. short term: Most likely outcome for me is a bull trap above 5600 and we will see a correction over the next weeks. I wait for bear strength before shorting. I will only continue to buy quick momentum scalps if we continue upwards. medium-long term: Bearish if the latest climactic top turns out to be a trap and we trade below 5580 again. If so, we will see a bigger correction down to at least 5450 in the near term and likely also 5300. Still think 5000 will be hit in 2024. current swing trade: None Chart update: Removed the smaller two legged correction and added another bull gap highlighter. Double top did obviously not hold but I still think this is a bull trap and a bigger two legged move sideways to down is more likely.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
3