BUY IDEA S&P 500-E MINIThe S&P 500 index can be bought in two specified support areas in two steps and profit from it up to the specified targetsLongby Ali-Rezaei-FX111
S&P 500 (ESM2024)... BULLISH BIAS!Bias is Bullish. Price swept the External LQ, then went for the Internal LQ. Price swept the old high, but didn't displace through it. With the formation of a +FVG, and price pulling back to tag it Friday, we may see price trade through the new high. Ideally, price will form FVGs to give us clear indications as to its intentions. Thank you for viewing! Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! May profits be upon you.Longby RT_Money2
202421 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500 overall market comment This week we found out how high the squeeze could get and markets made new all time highs. PPI was bad but market rallied anyway and bears gave up on CPI numbers. We are at the highs where we saw a bigger sell-off in April and it’s more reasonable to look for shorting the double tops, than betting on another melt-up for the biggest asset bubble in market history. If you don’t agree, it’s fine. I post enough links to support that thesis but you have to make up your own mind. My broader market view has not changed in the last weeks. I was early, yes but markets are forming tops and they always return to more reasonable valuation levels. Since we are at levels where you can’t find any metric that supports higher prices, I will only look for shorts for longer term trades. Does that mean the tops are in and we trade down from here on? Absolutely not. Markets can be irrational much longer than you can stay solvent. I will happily scalp long when markets move higher again. current market drivers (non price action part of my publication) second wave of inflation: PPI surprised upwards, commodities on a tear again (except oil for now) and CPI came in line. Market used everything as an excuse to squeeze shorts more and print new ath’s. Soon bad news will get interpreted as bad news again, since markets will trade lower instead of higher, before and after releases. rate-cuts: No new opinion on this one. Your guess is as good as anyone’s. If you can name 2-3 highly respected finance people, who say inflation is defeated and we will see many rate cuts, please share them with me. I’m always curious of other opinions and try to see what they see. job market: My assumption is that over the next 4-8 weeks we will see a further decline on job metrics. For now no updates. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again. comment: Very climactic rally and a pull-back is in order. We will probably retest the ath early next week and if bear’s do not step in, we could also just melt above 5350 for much higher prices. The depth of the pull-back (if it happens) will determine if we get another leg up or a bigger second leg down like the 370 point correction in April. Monday will be very interesting since opex is over and this rally looks, swims and quacks like short squeeze. current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 or breaks above 5350 key levels: 5000 - 5350 bull case: Bulls have every argument on their side for printing higher prices. Bears created 1 bear bar in 11 days and Friday closed 1 point below the daily high. That is as clear of a buy signal as it can get. At the minimum they want to retest 5349 but if bears step aside enough, we will melt right through for much higher prices. As of right now, the weekly chart printed an obvious double top but to confirm that, bears would need a strong sell-off next week. If bears will not get it, the big bull trend line pointing to 5450-5500 is the next magnet. Invalid below 5300. bear case: Bears see this as a climactic rally to retest the ath and want to sell-off now as we did the last time in late March. Market is trading very far above the daily 20ema and a 300 point gain without much of a pull-back, it’s overdue. Does that mean this was the top? No. It can go longer but talking probability-wise, a smaller second leg sideways to down is due. We had 3 clear pushes up with only very small side-ways corrections and this is climactic and unsustainable market behavior. outlook last week: “Pull-back should happen but longs are favored until bears make lower lows and break the 1h 20ema. I updated my daily chart but it’s only a very rough guess. Inflation prints will dominate the markets this week and I will give daily updates.” → Last Sunday we traded 5246 and now we are at 5349. Pull-back was very weak and even then the day printed green. Bulls wanted the new ath and they got it after CPI numbers were in line. My W4 was a bit too deep but W5 was spot on, so I hope you made some. short term: Slightly bearish - Retest of ath or 5330 expected before we should see more sideways to down price action. If bears are reasonably strong, we should see 5260 or 5200. Invalid above 5350 with follow through. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500. current swing trade: Waiting for bears to show up since I’m only looking for longer term shorts up here. Chart update: Bullish targets are met and some correction is overdue. Shortby priceactiontds2
ES - Market Maker Buy Model (MMBM)On Friday ES did beautiful retracement with SMT at Smart Money Reversal with YM. A lot of confluences much as seasonality, orderflow and structure.Longby Keclikk2
5/18 | $ESLast week, we were expecting a dip and rip. That is exactly what we got! However we dipped a bit less than expected, hence why I never alerted a big buy signal. Missed the easy move to new all time highs. On Friday, we saw end of day strength, creating a few gaps of interest below. Lower time frame areas of interest around 5317 and 5310 looking for support. If those fail, watching 5295 as a strong support. by StonksSociety0
Just picturing in my charts what I think will happen next weekLong, trap for buyers coming soon. Overall market been oversold for years when will we dig deeper is the questions for me every quarter... a broken clock has to be right at least once ??Longby zaewayfx0
Short term analysis for ES or MESCME_MINI:ES1! Broke out a 1 month flag on May 6th (in white). This pushed us to all time highs and now the spot buyers want to get over for next week is the 3 month megaphone resistance at 5349 area (in green). Get above there and buyers can push for 5374. If sellers want to dip us this upcoming week, it can start on the fail of 5302. which will target 5274 area. now realize, it has been one hell of a run, coming off 10 straight greed days. Consolidation between 5302-5349 is ideal for Monday in my opinion. Only time will tell! by ESMorg1
ES1!, big picturePutting on my bear hat this morning and reflecting on how difficult the move up from October 2022 low has been to interpret, from an Elliott Wave perspective. If you were trying to convince yourself of a major market top and completed five-wave impulse, I think this is how you'd have to do it. Wave ((5)) ends of being an expanding ending diagonal off October 2022 low. The price action off the October 2022 low has just been "weird". If you are a bull, you might see a leading diagonal and running flat to get wave ((5) started. Bears likely see double and triple-threes until the move up off October 2023 low. I think the thing that supports this idea the most is the parallel channel that connects waves ((1)), ((3)), and ((5)) and supports ((2)) and ((4)) of this proposed wave count. I'm not saying this is my primary count, but it is a count I am following.by discobiscuit1
Buyers returnedBuyers return to the S&P 500 and Friday's market action. The challenge now will be the expectation of follow through to the upside on Monday. Friday's price action implies that Thursday and Friday's market movement was buyers selling to take profits.01:43by DanGramza1
Can we time the market? YES!There is an old, seemingly wise saying, that says "time in the market beats timing the market!" This works for people that do not want to do the work... to study repeatable patterns. Throughout the bull market of 2024 (yes, the market is in a bull market) I have been waiting for and been asked by followers "is THIS the pullback to go long?" Generally, the answer is no and I have a reason rooted in Technical Analysis that I talk about in this video. But eventually... the market reveals itself to us with repeating phenomenon in price action. I have posted individual videos over the last two months as this pullback has gone on in the S&P 500. When it finally reached its culmination I talked about making my yearly allocation in tax advantages accounts. You can see these too and in this video I teach exactly how.Long10:15by norok4421
Small Account Challenge Day 5 Recap - SPY PutsAnother choppy and flat day for the challenge account. I think i did ok today but that lotto i bought should have been a call. Don't know what i was thinking buying a put after VX just broke below support. Oh well i should have been done trading at that point anyway. Next week will be better. 05:04by AdvancedPlays0
S&P 500 Hitting Heavy LiquidityES1! showing signs of heavy resistance to price movement, AKA liquidity in this rarified air. The daily ranges for the previous two trading days will be monumental in the market deciding its direction, as there is a lot of interest packing in at these levels. 5287 to 5349 are the outer limits with 5318-to-5323 also being important inflection points as this plays out. Volume has notably been low during the melt-up that got us here, but this low influx of volume has seemingly run into a wall of resting orders. I lean short, but will wait for confirmation either direction. by PrestigeWorldwideTradingCo1
ES Daily UpdateAt this point you gotta figure the daily is gonna go overbought before this stupidity ends, lol. My 3hr indicators should go oversold Monday, guess I gotta go long.by hungry_hippo6
Morning Session REview ES 5-17-24Going over the morning session looking for clues to how we could have traded today better. going into the weekend we really want to reflect & update our trading plan. eliminate what isnt working and double down on what is working. keep working hard. another week almost in the books. goal is to be green end of the day. not become a millionaire.03:10by BobbyS8130
ES Futures Double Top Rejection- 3 Failed tests on 4h timeframe - Price breakdown (hourly bear flag) - Price targets: 5226.75, 5153.75, trailing stop - Stop Loss: 5350 (break into ATHs)Shortby Eclipse_TradingUpdated 0
ES Hourly Bear Flag- Strong rejection of a key level - Bearish structure formed at top of range - Possible exhausted bull run?Shortby Eclipse_TradingUpdated 0
ES High of Day FailureES failed to break above high of day earlier. OPEX typically leads to chop, but I'll be watching to see if we can get any momentum tonthe downside. Shortby AdvancedPlays0
Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market shows signs of fatigue after 10 consecutive green days. Traders are anticipating a pullback and adjusting strategies accordingly. Important Note: It's OPEX Friday, which often leads to choppy price action and pinning (price moving a lot but ending near the starting point). Exercise caution and be prepared for potential traps. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5309-11 (major), 5294 (major) Major Supports: 5271 (major), 5249 (major), 5217-20 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5329-31 (major), 5342 (major), 5361 (major) Major Resistances: 5398-5400 (major), 5433-36 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Rally Caution: The market is overdue for a correction after the recent parabolic move. Prioritize protecting profits and consider reducing exposure. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5309-11, followed by a reclaim above 5314, as a potential long entry point. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, look for a test and bounce/failed breakdown at 5309-11, then consider shorting at 5306 for a move down the levels, exiting all runners at 5294. Proceed with extreme caution as shorting in an uptrend is risky. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending 5309-11 is crucial for maintaining short-term bullish momentum. A hold here would allow for further base-building and potentially another leg up to 5330, 5342. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5309-11 triggers a more significant dip. Consider shorting at 5306 after a bounce/failed breakdown confirmation, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for May 17th, 2024 🌍 Eurozone Financial Stability Risks: The European Central Bank has issued warnings regarding the fragility of financial stability in the Eurozone amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties during a significant election year. 💼 U.S. Defense Spending Surge: Recent U.S. military budget allocations have reached new heights, with significant implications for global military and defense strategies. 💰 China's Treasury Sell-Off: In a notable shift in financial strategy, China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency bonds, marking a record sell-off that underscores evolving trade and economic relations. 📉 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Strategy: The Federal Reserve signals a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic recovery. 📈 Global Trade Dynamics: A significant rebound in global trade is anticipated, driven by easing inflation and robust economic activities in key regions, promising a shift in international trade flows and economic recovery.Longby spytradingpro0
Prep and Lean ES/SPXCBOE:SPX if it can base above 5300 today we should see 5332 by early next week. Calls can work above 5300 for today ES Trade Plan Inflection: 5327 Upper lvls: 5368 / 5377 / 5387 Lower lvls: 5312-5316 / 5304-5308 / 5292-5296 / 5268-5274 NQ Trade Plan Inflection: 18673 Upper lvls: 18812-18817 / 18974-18982 Lower lvls: 18576-18602 / 18483-18509 / 18416-18431 / 18386 Stay Frosty! Long07:50by Beyond_Charts0
ES Trades Ideas for the DayES tested the 5333 level several times overnight and couldn't break. It's trying again now whil VX is at the bottom of its range. I'd expect ES to fail here, but it moves above and VX makes a new low I'll have to reconsider my short bias.by AdvancedPlays0
Bonds Giving Back All the CPI Rally. Is the SPX Next?I am really into the bond / stock relationship. Higher interest rates leads to an alternative to stocks, especially when stocks at all-time highs. The huge stock rally on Wednesday was helped by a big bond rally. Now the bonds have given up the entire rally. This could lead to bearish index futures patterns more likely to work.Shortby chrisbrecher0
OverNight Price Action Review ES 5-17-24Going over the price action over night ES looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and planning our lean for the day. where we want to engage and how we see the morning session unfolding. 02:28by BobbyS8130
Day Session Price Action REview ES 5-16-24Going over today price Action ES looking for clues and how we could have traded it better. working on dialing in our strategies and going with the trend and structures. 02:48by BobbyS8130