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ES1! trade ideas

2024-11-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bears moving it lower but barely. Every low was followed by 7-10 point pullback. For tomorrow I can see the following, 5909 is the daily 20ema and the breakout retest is at 5924. Those could be potential targets if the bears are strong and keep the market below 6000. Above 6000 I think many bears will give up and market could retry 6030 or higher. On the daily chart we have a two legged pullback and bulls are free to melt again. Still heavily favoring the bulls since the selling is so weak. comment : Close below 6000 was good for the bears but does the 1h chart look bearish to you? Look at the daily chart and see how insignificant this move down is. Bears would need a big acceleration down and keep the market below the 5m 20ema for couple of hours and 100+ points. This will likely be a minor pullback which the bulls buy tomorrow. Be prepared for a nasty short squeeze tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we close above 6060 but consider me dumbfounded if we close the week below 5950. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5900 - 6100 bull case: Bulls want to close the week green and print another buy signal going into next week. Most bears will likely cover above 6000 and try again around 6015, which was the big magnet for the entire week and it will likely be for tomorrow as well. Above 6035 we see a complete give up by bears until 6053. Everything is in place for a big move tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5960. bear case: Bears closed below 6000. That’s the only thing they have going for them. Can they get down to the breakout price 5924 and daily 20ema around 5911? I highly doubt it. For that to happen the market would have to stay below 6000 and trap many bulls. Even a hot ppi print today could not move the market much and we had two sided trading all day. In all fairness, we have a very clear bull channel on the daily chart, with 2 upper trend lines, one around the ath 6053 and the other currently runs through 6180. I think 6180 is currently much more likely than touching the lower trend line at 5760. Invalidation is above 6001. short term: Bullish. Want to see a 2%+ up move tomorrow and squeeze further. Below 5950 we will print 5920 or 5900. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. Update 2024-11-14: Blow-off top happening right now. Got measured move targets above 6150 or higher. Santa came early, so don’t expect him to come around again this year. current swing trade : Nope trade of the day: Selling the open was decent I guess. Market looks much more bearish on the 1h tf than it was. Much two sided trading with better end for the bears. I don’t think selling 6000 was a good trade, despite going down to 5964.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPY Day Trading Using @mwrightinc Indicators Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime. In this video, I explain how I use 4 free TradingView indicators to identify entries on SPY. There is a lot of information out there about creating support and resistance zones. But, drawing reliable ones only comes with experience. In my 3 years of options trading and indicator building, I've found a few patterns that seem to work pretty reliably with SPY. Order blocks, and SPY price levels at $2.50 increments, are 2 of the most predictable. To capture price movements based on these, I explain how I use the QQQ and SPY Price Levels and Magic Order Blocks indicators with SPY options and /MES futures trading. Additionally, volume weighted average price (VWAP), plays an important role every day because institutional (large) investors commonly use it for entries and exits. It is a great gauge of daily trends. ATR bands (also known as Keltner Channels) can also provide an at-a-glance look at what can be expected of price action in the near future. To monitor these, I explain how I use the ATR Bands (Keltner Channels) SRSI and Wick Signals and Multi VWAP indicators. Specifically, how they were used on the 11/13/2024 Trading day. All of the indicators are free and open source, and were built with the goal of making everyone a better trader. I hope you find the content useful. - Mo
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Education
by mwrightinc
Veterans Day!Today being the beginning of the week and a bank holiday, the markets were choppy! From looking at the fair value gaps, I can see the potential for the market to drop. I also notice that the candlesticks are exhausting, so a pullback is evident, it’s just a question of how far will we pull back. Right now I positioned myself into a Put Options contract. We will see by tomorrow if anything will occur to help me hedge the position or add to it. With no economic data releasing until Wednesday, it’s a risk. But thats trading at its core. I am looking at today’s doji candle as a sign that we will pull back a bit more, it’s just a question of when and how much. Lately we have been on an aggressive bull run that the pullbacks have been very short lived. This is not a problem, it just takes a level of extreme focus, and unwavering confidence in your strategy to exit a Put position at the right time. We take a moment to study SPY, we see several gaps that were created last week from the run up. What goes up, must come down they say, so I would expect SPY at some point to come down a retest its gap at 593. Tomorrow will provide more data into what the pullback may look like. Until then I will keep my eyes on the futures market and prepare!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RandiMichelle
Weekly S&P ProyectionSince the market did not correct as expected, this opens up the possibility for a new period of euphoria. As show in the graph this has happened before from the year 2020 to 2022. Price is typically considered to not follow a normal distribution, therefore using one to estimate if price is over extended has its flaws. This is because the true distribution of a security is a multinomial distribution, where price can either go up, down or stay equal. The reason price behaves in such an odd manner is because price, has 2 unknown probabilities. Such probabilities can be calculated for the past, but not for the future. These are the probability of a price increase, and the probability of price staying the same, consequently the probability of price decreasing will be 1 minus the sum of the two previous probabilities. The value of such probabilities also fluctuates, and is determined by the market. When a market becomes overexcited, the probability of price increasing is closer to 1 than it's other counter probabilities. When this happens, a normal model no longer becomes suitable for estimating the limits of the distribution. If one has a multinomial distribution, thought of as a graph with nodes in a shape of a 3D tree, where each node has a relationship with 3 subsequent nodes. Where each relationship carries one of the probabilities mentioned before (with no repetitions). Starting with 1 initial node, then 4 then 16 … previous+previous*3n. One is able to create a mental map of true, the price action distribution. From these, one could calculate new limits, by using bootstrapping. However, since the computational power of such algorithm is complex, we can use the mean returns indicator to evaluate the trend and see that currently the trend is positive. This would mean that the probability of increasing is most likely also closer to one. If the mean returns were at 0 then the probability of price staying the same would be closer to one, and if it's below zero the same is true for a downtrend. Currently, the trend is positive, and not close to the theoretical limits of price action. This means that the probability of seeing a skewed distribution in the future are relatively high. However, if you still use a normal distribution to estimate the limits, then price is due for a correction. Only time will tell, as over excitement can move markets past their technical limits, and that is something that will always be a flaw in any technical approach to model price action.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov7thOn Wednesday, buyers triggered longs at 5902, sending us all the way to our 6013 target right to the tick yesterday. Now investors are taking a breather, holding around 6000 for the last 17 hours. I often mention how the day after trend legs are experienced traders’ least favorite days to trade. Longs are risky do to chasing. Shorts are risky due to being against the trend. And because of these two, the chance for chop is VERY high. Keep this in your head today…and after day after rallies. As of now: Continue holding runners if you have them from yesterday. Expect chop between 6009-5979, with 6000 acting as a mid-pivot point. Levels to watch are 6009-13, and 6035-38 if we push higher. If 5978 breaks, a dip is finally on the table.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg