SP500 is now Net-ShortSP500 is now Net-Short on the regression break.
The bond markets have also increased in value and risk off build.
ES1! trade ideas
ES Morning UpdateOn Friday, after breaking below 6104 support, ES delivered a rare trend day. This set up a rally to kick off the week, with a reclaim of 6042 acting as the long trigger around 6pm. The first target of 6068 was hit exactly.
As of now:
• Hold the long runner.
• As long as the market stays above 6042, 6068 again, then 6092 and 6104 next up, and the bullish move remains intact.
• If 6042 fails, expect a dip toward 6020.
Weekly Analysis + Yearly Review Part 1A look at the major indexes for short to medium term action along with a recap of some previous longer term ideas I've posted over the past 8-9 months or so. This is part 1 going over ES, NQ, VX, TNX, and NVDA.
Part 2 including AMD, XRP, BTC, MSTR, PLTR, CVNA, and GME coming shortly.
Can ES Hold Steady? This week’s data and Nvidia earnings (Feb 26) are pivotal.
Options Positioning
Volume: High, with daily averages ~1.5M contracts (CME data trends). Expect ~1.7M this week due to macro catalysts.
Call vs. Put Skew: Call-heavy (1.4:1), reflecting hedging against a pullback and speculative upside bets.
Key Strikes:
NTM (6,000–6,050): GEX high (+$300M), IV ~25%, DEX balanced. Gamma pinning likely keeps NYSE:ES stable early week (Feb 24–25) unless data shifts sentiment.
OTM Calls (6,100–6,150): GEX moderate (+$150M), VEX positive, IV 30%. Heavy OI (40,000 contracts) at 6,100 suggests a volatility spike target if Nvidia beats and PCE cools.
OTM Puts (5,900–5,950): GEX low (+ LSE:80M ), VEX flat, IV ~20%. Put buying reflects downside hedges if PCE surprises hot (>2.7%).
Term Structure: March futures (~6,050) in slight contango, but a volatility event (e.g., Nvidia miss) could flip to backwardation, boosting OTM call IV.
Key Data Releases and Impact
Feb 25 – Consumer Confidence: <110 lifts NYSE:ES to 6,000; >115 pushes to 6,100.
Feb 26 – Q4 GDP: <2.5% supports 5,950–6,000; >3% pressures to 5,900 on inflation fears.
Feb 26 – Nvidia Earnings: Beat holds 6,050–6,100; miss drops to 5,900–5,950.
Feb 28 – PCE: <2.5% lifts to 6,150; >2.7% sinks to 5,900, spiking OTM put volume.
Forecast: Range: 5,900–6,150. Base case: 6,000–6,050 unless PCE or Nvidia disrupts.
S&P Daily Chart Analysis2-23-25
Last Thursday was an implied H1, late in a wedge expecting another leg up, a low probability buy. Bears sell aggressively. Price is in the middle of a tight TR, expect disappointment and failed BOs.
Bulls are stuck at higher prices and will scale in looking to get to BE and entry, so sellers above. Bears that are short will scale in looking for a 2nd leg down.
Weekly chart gives good context for continuation downward.
Expect small continuation, possibly even an inside bar to start the week, pullback, then price to begin a wedge down to test the lower levels of the TR. A breakout above a bad buy signal bar is a magnet and likely to get tested.
S&P weekly Analysis 2-23-25Bear sell signal in the middle of the Trading Range and just above EMA. Many bulls will buy at the EMA, which has been support since November 23. However, context is good for a MTR. Market is at the top of a Spike and channel parabolic wedge. After wedge completion, expect Price to retest the start of the channel.
This Friday is month end, adding to potential end-of-week vol. Bears may sell here, but that would create a moment of clarity. Such moments get a pull-back 80% of the time. So better bearish trade would be to let the next weekly bar form for more information. Sell a PB after continuation.
The market is in a Trading Range, and in tight TRs, expect disappointment and for breakouts to fail. Look for 2-push moves to the extremes of the Range. Last week's bearish bar is strong enough to expect continuation, and if we get continuation, expect a PB or hesitation, and then another leg down.
Weekly Outlook 3rd Week of FebruaryCovering NQ and ES on weekly outlook and overall draw for the upcoming weeks. Prepare for a massive meltdown
S&P 500 mostly neutral heading into summer 2025All the usual disclaimers:
1. I am not registered with FINRA. I am not a financial advisor.
2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
3. This post is not and is not intended as financial advice. Instead, this post shares speculation upon hypothetical possible future outcomes.
4. This post uses purely doodling and technical analysis. It is not based to any extent upon education from news sources, information releases from underlying firms, nor upon microeconomic nor macroeconomic principles.
5. This scrying is unlikely to predict price action and VWAP vectors (direction and magnitude) within 50% accuracy over any specific interval.
The gray scrying upon CME_MINI:ESH2025 foreshadows replay of VWAPs starting since November and December. Both converge in early summer 2025 that appears slightly bullish during their +3 month windows, but they also return to the current price zone of contention. Referring to "2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance," even when lightning strikes multiple times, it never follows the exact same path.
The daily normal range (orange for post, pre, and early trading) and daily extreme range (red for normal and late trading) boxes appear to have been sufficiently calibrated for ESH2025. They may need to be recalibrated each quarter.
High pullback probability environment, 60-80% prob. for 5% gain We have just saw a clear daily trend reversal rejection bar and price move on Friday 21st of February the same as for S&P and the Dow Jones whether moves on Dow Jones were more powerfull.
Looking at the charts the price levels which were respected all the time from 2020 by the market are related to the Covid 2020 market crash move down and it is part of the retracements, recovery and over-extension from these levels. We had a nice 5 strong moves up with the extension of leg 3 Fibbo move and 5 from 5362 levels.
What we can see now is the rejection of 3.272 Fibbo level commonly used as the target price when 2.618 is expected. I see this as an overextended move with 20-40% probability of breaking up. There might be 60-80% chance of the pullback. There are very nice RSI and MACD weekly divergences.
Targets depended on the price action could be in 5750-5300 and we still may stay in strong uptrend. If we break below 5350 levels the follow through to 4900 levels might be in place and must be holded. If failed, maybe that is just all and we might see 2020 lows in years to come.
Lot of work needs to be done and the pullback can be interesting for weeks to come.
For now, 60-80% probability to reach 5700 levels. *Daily 200 + Weekly 50*
Short SPY 6100, 6000 in put options.
ES NQ AND RTY FUTURES SHORTSIDE MOVE WITH TARGETS HIT Targets hit and levels to watch on es nq and rty futures. Enjoy the show :)
ES Morning Update OPEX FridayYesterday, 6109 served as both the sell target and support in ES, and that level held all day. I was targeting a move to 6129, which was hit, and then the market rallied close to 6145, just a few points shy. After a backtest, 6129 held overnight.
As of now:
• OPEX today—avoid overtrading and simply hold your runners
• 6129 is key; it keeps 6145, 6156, and 6161+ in play
• If 6129 fails, expect a dip to 6116
ES NQ AND RTY QUICK UPDATE AND LEVELS TO PLAYLevels to watch on es nq and rty and whats ahead. Key levels of support and resistance explained
ES! CHART TO WATCHES! CHART TO WATCH
Possible fake out break out
Possible intraday oversold bounce to just below .68 FIB zone
wedge lines formed confluence for bounce zone
ES NQ AND RTY FUTURES SHORTSIDE TARGTS AND RANG TO EXPECTQuick look at es nq and rty futures and what to expect
ES Morning UpdateIt’s been three days of trading within the 6120-6154 range in ES. Yesterday, I was watching for a test of 6129 with a final target at 6154 and a bonus at 6168. 6129 held precisely, and the market rallied to 6167.
As of now:
• Let the runners work—avoid overtrading
• 6145 is acting as weak support, keeping 6154, 6167, and 6185 in play
• If 6145 fails, expect a dip toward 6133, then 6123
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/19/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/19/25
📈6150-6155
📉6120-6115
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ReCap from this morning!trade explanation going over why i had a bullish bias this morning. going over my loss of -$300 to a win of +$1,162 putting me at a profit of $866 for the morning.
Conservative movement to the upside is expectedAnother small conservative move to the upside in the S&P 500 is expected for Thursday with the close above 6175.
S&P Weekly chart analysis2-19-25 S&P Weekly chart
Jan 13 week, trap reversal. Two strong bars and pullback needs a 2nd leg up, in progress. Bears have NOTHING to sell. Bears had a chance with the Feb 3rd week, gapping down, but still closing bullish. Bulls will buy everything and pushing hard for targets above.
Still, price seems labored and days see bulls taking quick profits.
S&P Monthly chartLikely to form a period of consolidation, 2 more legs up followed by larger reversal. Monthly chart looking like a mature parabolic wedge.
ES NQ AND RTY FUTURES LOOK AT TODAY with TARGETSQuick look at ES NQ and RTY with full extension and dropside targets. Prio video from earlier today never uploaded.
Seeking a breakthrough within the fluctuation range.Using this indicator, Seeking a breakthrough within the fluctuation range.
Strength in NQ futuresHi Fellow traders
I'll be starting my regular post of my bias of the market. Using Futures market as a indication of potential strength and weakness of the market.
Bias will be bullish into the open on NasDdaq as you can see from the comparison of Nasdaq VS S&P that there is a bullish divergence between NQ and ES. which is in alignment with the higher time frame draw
Specifically Long Nasdaq > S&P
My prediction would be that market will open to push for higher high
