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ES1! trade ideas

Could we have bottomed early?Local maximums don't tend to follow the pattern of respecting overextensions like minimums do. This is mostly based on the positive bias people have of the future. Seeing a close this strong is a strong enough sign for the indicator of short term trend to become positive. If this is true then we should start pushing to new high, but if the market does so it risk overextending again but with the coming elections one could expect for the incumbent party to try to inflate stocks to have strong image heading into the polls. But by doing so it creates a high risk of over estimulation which could result in a time of euphoria followed by a crash. It's been 4 years since the 2020 crisis. The mode for recessions is every 3 to 4 years. If technicals begin to overextended and fundamentals to keep up, we might be headed to a new crisis. Technicals need to reset before going forward.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
Live Trade Analysis on MNQ Using PO3, FRVP, Goldbach and ICTHello traders, Today, I'm excited to share a detailed analysis of a live trade I executed on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 (MNQ) futures market. This trade exemplifies the fusion of several advanced trading concepts: PO3, Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP), Goldbach, Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodologies, and Fair Value Gaps (FVG). Let's dive into the trade, the rationale behind it, and the results. Setting the Stage PO3 (Power of Three) PO3 is a concept that identifies three key phases in market movements: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution. Recognizing these phases helps traders anticipate market moves and identify optimal entry and exit points. Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) The FRVP is a powerful tool that shows the volume distribution over a specific range of price data. It helps in identifying high volume nodes (HVNs) and low volume nodes (LVNs), which serve as potential support and resistance levels. Goldbach Goldbach's trading strategy revolves around statistical probabilities and mathematical models to identify high-probability trade setups. It complements other technical analysis tools by adding a layer of probabilistic insight. Inner Circle Trader (ICT) Concepts ICT concepts emphasize understanding market structure, liquidity, and order flow. Key elements include liquidity pools, market maker buy/sell models, and institutional order flow. Fair Value Gaps (FVG) FVGs occur when there is a price gap between consecutive bars, indicating areas of potential liquidity. These gaps often serve as magnets for price, offering opportunities for reversals or continuations. The Trade Market Context Today's trade setup began with a thorough analysis of the MNQ market during the pre-market hours. Using the PO3 concept, I identified the accumulation phase as the market consolidated within a tight range. This was followed by a brief manipulation phase, marked by a false breakout to the downside, which quickly reversed. Volume Profile Analysis Using the FRVP, I identified significant volume clusters that aligned with the accumulation zone. The highest volume node (HVN) within this range acted as a critical support level. Conversely, the low volume nodes (LVNs) highlighted potential areas of resistance where the market might struggle to break through. Goldbach and ICT Confluences I overlaid Goldbach's probability models onto the existing market structure, which provided additional confirmation of the high-probability zones identified by the FRVP. ICT concepts further reinforced these levels by highlighting liquidity pools and likely institutional activity. Identifying the Fair Value Gap (FVG) During the manipulation phase, a noticeable FVG formed as the price swiftly moved down and then reversed. This gap indicated an area where price was likely to return, providing a prime entry opportunity. Execution Entry I entered the trade as the price retraced to the FVG, aligning with the HVN identified by the FRVP. The confluence of these factors—volume profile support, FVG, and the probabilistic edge from Goldbach—provided a robust entry signal. Management and Exit The trade was managed using a trailing stop approach, initially set below the HVN to protect against adverse moves. As the price moved in favor of the trade, I adjusted the stop to lock in profits, eventually exiting at a significant resistance level identified by the LVN on the FRVP. Results and Reflection The trade concluded with a solid profit, showcasing the power of combining multiple advanced trading concepts. The integration of PO3, FRVP, Goldbach, ICT, and FVG provided a multi-faceted approach that significantly enhanced the trade's success probability. Key Takeaways Confluence is Key: Combining multiple concepts and tools increases the reliability of trade setups. Volume Profile Insight: The FRVP is invaluable for identifying support and resistance levels based on actual market participation. Liquidity Awareness: Understanding liquidity pools and gaps helps anticipate market movements and avoid traps. Mathematical Edge: Goldbach's probabilistic models add a quantitative layer to traditional technical analysis. This trade is a testament to the effectiveness of a well-rounded trading strategy that leverages diverse methodologies. I encourage fellow traders to explore these concepts further and integrate them into their own trading plans for enhanced performance. Happy trading, Lord MEDZ
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Skinwah
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 06.02 - 06.07Last Week : Last week market opened up outside of Value, build some more supply then started the correction lower, we were able to move down to VAL where we found our first Support where we were able to do some covering but eventually we broke, held under and go continuation towards the Lower Edge, we were able to test its bottom where we ran out of Supply and got a sharp reversal back inside Value for a big move from VAL to VAH. This Week : Going into this week if we look at Structure we can see we did a look below VAL and fail which gave a return trip to VAH which we tagged, build more supply under and Failed which gave another round trip back to VAL and this time we tagged Key Support at 5249.75 - 44.75 and it acted as proper Key Support giving another big bounce all the way back towards Key Area and as we can see end of day push over 5295.50 - 90.25. Globex consolidated over Key Area but was not able to hold and we got a flush back inside the Means of 5295.50 - 44.75 Range. This to me screams balance, and I think market will want to stay around these areas going forward until we will build up enough supply to accept under VAL or get stronger buyers to give us acceptance over VAH. My bias is that we might not see higher prices over 5320-40s for some time but of course we never know and have to trade what market gives, for now I believe this current intraday range can finally become our balance range which we haven't gotten in some time, we have been moving ranges back and forth without spending too long in each and I think its about time we get some good balance action that can last a while. The way I will be trading this we have our intraday range means at 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 this is the area where price might want to keep returning back into, pushes out of them can go towards the Key Edges of 5295.50 - 90.25 as our Resistance and 5249.75 - 44.75 but this is the time to be careful with looking perfect tags or too much continuation outside of Key Edges because if we have found balance we will look for any pushes out of the Means to return back either from failures at/above/below Key Support/Resistance or we could even see pushes out of means that will consolidate above/below without tagging Key Edges and then return back in, and when price is between this will be our balance/build up area. Will continue trading this range until we can see clear acceptance Over or Under Key Support/Resistance and holds over/under VAH/VAL. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5295.50 - 5244.75 Means 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75- 60.75 Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support 5249.75 - 44.75 IF we do happen to leave balance and accept under/over the ranges would be Above : 5341 - 36 Key Resistance 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means 5295.50 - 90.25 Below : 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Means 5204.25 - 5199.75 Key Support
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn