2024-06-18 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Nothing fancy to report here either. Market is in balance and bulls poking at 5560. They want a break above for 5600 and will probably get it soon. Bears shorting the resistance at 5558ish and making money but will be quick to give up, if this trades above 5563/5565.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks.
key levels: 5540 - 5600
bull case: Perfect buying at the 1h 20ema today for another ath 1 point above. Bulls want 5600 next. I leave room for 1 more leg up but that’s it. No more after that.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears need to stop the higher highs and trade below the 1h 20ema. Until they do that, max bullishness. Don’t make it more complicated. Can literally buy every pullback and make money.
Invalidation is above 5565.
short term: As bullish as one can be. Ride it up. 1 More leg possible to 5600 but that should be it.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 5543 or near the 1h ema or literally every 15m bear candle and scalp.