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ES1! trade ideas

#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Max bullish. New ath is done, now I have two upper targets left for this year. We have 2 decent upper bull trend lines where only the #1 target of 6300 fits. The other would be 6450 but too far and too low probability for now. Bears would need anything below 5850 to kill the rally. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again. comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs . current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6500) bull case: Last hurrah. 6150 is my next target and if we don’t stop, 6500. Is this a bubble? Yes. Can you short this? No. Trends can go much further than anyone can imagine and your account can not sustain the drawdown of early shorts. Breakout is clear, as is the chart. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Non-starter is this here. Daily close below 5850, then I start looking at this with a bigger bullish eye. Invalidation is above 6070. outlook last week: short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now. → Last Sunday we traded 5987 and now we are at 6051. Perfect outlook. short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Full Gameplan For Monday Dec 2ndPlan for Monday **Supports:** • Major: 6045, 6032, 6024, 6014, 5988-93, 5983, 5961-5959, 5954, 5943, 5933, 5914, 5893, 5878-81, 5859-62, 5843, 5820. • Minor: 6038, 6033, 6018, 6009, 6002, 5976, 5972, 5948, 5928, 5922, 5921, 5908, 5904, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5854, 5850, 5836, 5828. **Resistances:** • Major: 6063, 6088, 6100, 6119, 6131, 6143, 6162, 6181, 6195-6200, 6223, 6242, 6253, 6274-78. • Minor: 6055, 6072, 6093, 6106, 6123, 6153, 6168, 6172, 6190, 6206, 6217, 6233, 6260, 6264. **Market Context and Strategy** Current Position: I am still trailing my 10% long runner from the 5988 reclaim last Monday, with adds already completed at 6002 and 6025. Last week was an extremely profitable session, and now is a time to sit back and wait for new opportunities. This means there is nothing for me to do until price resets. This means either 1) A sharp selloff or 2) ES starts to build another consolidation that gives me some structure to work with. Closing at all-time highs limits actionable trades at the open: 1. Longs: Risky due to potential retrace as normal volume returns Monday, and no current structure supports a strong continuation without price discovery. 2. Shorts: Not viable for my strategy as they go against strength and the prevailing uptrend, which is a very low win rate strategy. 3. Consolidation Risk: Very High, due to shorts and longs being of high risk... ultimately giving the need for the market to digest the recent parabolic move. Additionally, “Hangover Mondays” often see ES retrace a significant portion of a holiday rally, reflecting the shift from low-volume, artificial, hype holiday trading turning to real money trading basically. Of course this doesn’t always happen (there is no always in markets), but its a fairly strong seasonal tendency particularly after Thanksgiving week. **Bull Case for Monday:** The bull case depends on defending Friday’s breakout levels while building structure for continuation. Key zones for bulls to hold include: 1. 6045 (Major Support): The first key level to test. A flush and reclaim here or tight flagging would signal continued strength. 2. 6032 (Major Support): A failed breakdown at this level would confirm strong demand, providing an opportunity for longs. Upside targets: • Initial resistance at 6063. If bulls can consolidate or break through here, the next moves aim for 6072, 6088, and eventually 6100. Structure to watch: • A tight flag or basing above 6045 but below 6063 going into monday would signal readiness for a breakout continuation. **Bear Case for Monday:** There is no significant bear case unless 5993 fails, but short-term bearish setups could emerge if: 1. 6032 Breaks Down: A loss of this level would invalidate Friday’s breakout, signaling that the holiday rally may have been fake. 2. Sharp Flush to 6024: This would align with the typical “hangover” effect, where ES retraces the low-volume holiday move. Watch for failed breakdowns or reactions at this level before shorting below it. **Key to trading breakdowns:** • Do not chase. Look for: • A flush to 6024, followed by a reclaim and bounce, or • A failed breakdown at 6032 to gauge where buyers step in. • If these recalims subsequently fail, momentum could build toward lower supports like 6014, 5988-93, or deeper levels. My Short Entry Strategy: Wait for a final bounce attempt at the level (traps happen more than anything, so in order to short, you need to wait for a trap to happen first), then short after sellers flush the lows of the structure. This ensures demand has been exhausted first. More on this in Private group **Summary for Monday:** A light trading day with the following key takeaways: • Bullish Lean: Hold levels like 6045, 6032 (failed breakdown possible) to resume the breakout and test 6063, 6088, 6100+. • Bearish Risk: A failure of 6032 invalidates Friday’s breakout, likely leading to a deeper retrace to 6024, 6014, or lower. Be patient and wait for price discovery to reveal the next structure for setups. Avoid chasing moves in either direction and focus on clear opportunities with defined risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
ES1! Futures Mini Hourly Trade (ICT Rejection Block?)Short and simple, just here to track this trade idea officially using ICT concepts. Although my Intermediate analysis is Bearish for ES1! I do believe there is some reason to be Bullish in the short term . Missed most of the move but this trade is would be more of a scalp /short swing if youre into that. This would be off the most recent 1H Bullish OB and targeting the unmitigated highs from Nov 11 7am ( 6,053 level ) which coincedentally is an unmitigated Rejection Block (**unverified**), seems like the only area with Buy Side liquidity left before ranging back down into discount or establishing a new high before retracing. It seems like price strength doesn't much area to move because I believe this is the most recent move away from EQ in this current weekly range. Interested to see how this develops. Entry: 6,030 Stop: 6,020 PT 1: 6,035 (0.6 RR) PT 2: 6,044 (1.38 RR)
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EaszzzyE
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures - Same as for dax. Retest of yesterday’s open price and bears could only correct sideways and biggest dip was 5 points. Big bull trend line was support and we are on our way up. I expect 6040 and probably higher. If not tomorrow then next month. We have a perfect channel upwards which leads 6100+. I don’t think bears can even get below 6015 again. If they do, 6000 has to hold or we could have seen the highs. comment: Not much difference to my dax outlook. Relentless buying today, ath in sight and a decent channel upwards. Bears need something below 6000 to make bulls cover. Big bullish bias for me. Possible that we stay around 6000-6050 for November, to then do the Santa rally somewhere in December. Closing 2024 above 6000 would be amazing for bulls. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 6000 - 6050 (above 6050 comes 6100 in play) bull case : Higher lows and higher highs. Clear invalidation price given and big resistance above. I doubt bears can get this below 6010/6015 tomorrow. Only longs for me. If we stall around 6040, you should have a tight stop and from a r:r perspective, new longs above 6040 are bad. Invalidation is below 6010. bear case: Bears need something below 6000. That’s it. How likely is that? Look at the daily chart. Is there any bearishness in there? Invalidation is above 6050. short term : Bullish. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Class A/B RSI Bearish Divergence on SPY Futures?Really posting here to see if anyone would validate this for me but I was looking on the chart and this idea came about. On the weekly chart for ES1!, there seems to be class A or B Bearish Divergence developing on the Weekly timeframe. Listen, of course we all know SPY trends upwards over time but is this an indicator of a larger sell the market needs to go higher every once in a blue moon? This is guarenteed a macro trend and I probably will have to wait a year for this analysis to play out but hey, at least we're here. (***ponders on how I charted Gamestop at $10 but never traded because of lack of knowledge***) Anyways, this is something I will of course monitor but let me highlight instances in history this has happened. Please feel free to give your input on this analysis! Jan 1998 thru Apr 2001 (News Driver: Dot-Com Bubble) Price makes higher highs from Jan 98' thru Mar 00' From Mar 98' thru Mar 00', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) on Sep 00'. Fails to make new all-time high From Sep 00' to Apr 01' price moves down as much as 30% over the next 224d Jan 2013 thru Feb 2016 Price makes higher highs from Jan 13' thru May 15' From May 13' thru Jun 14', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) Jul 15' and a following lower high on Nov 15' From Jul 15' to Aug 15' (42d) (News Driver: Lagging China Market) price moves down as much as 14% and as much as 14% on the Nov '15 lower high to Jan 16' (78d) (News Driver: Oil Prices) Current: Jan 24' thru Nov 24' Price has been making higher highs all year From Mar 24' thru , the RSI has been making lower highs while price is making higher highs We are now at a point where price is pushing to go higher but what I would want to see based off of historical data is for price to consolidate or some type of Bearish Turtle Soup forming. If this happens and the RSI returns to Fair Value, we could be in for a sizeable sell of for at least a couple of weeks in the near future. I will come back to this in the next few months. Happy Trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EaszzzyE
Holiday Trading Plan Nov 28th & 29thNOTE: This trade plan is for the next two days. Both Thursday and Friday are half days for futures closing at 1pm EST. The NYSE is closed tomorrow, but open for a half day Friday. Volatility and volume will be very light and setups will be limited. The below levels are also for two sessions, which means they may be less precise than usual as I am basically averaging two days. I will post any real-time revisions and updates in private group as the day goes on. Plan for Thursday and Friday’s Sessions Supports: • Major: 6009, 5993-89, 5963, 5952, 5933, 5921, 5908, 5878-5880, 5850-55, 5837, 5818-22, 5802, 5773, 5757-59. • Minor: 6002, 5998, 5981, 5972, 5967, 5957, 5942, 5928, 5902, 5892, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5842, 5828, 5812, 5806, 5790, 5782, 5766. Resistances: • Major: 6025-28, 6045-50, 6069, 6089, 6112, 6121, 6134, 6152, 6185, 6195, 6214, 6232, 6245, 6263, 6271-76. • Minor: 6017, 6033, 6039, 6055, 6062, 6076, 6082, 6095, 6117, 6142, 6163, 6171, 6200, 6208, 6225, 6238, 6256. Context and Strategy: The market remains in a large consolidation base between 5993-89 and 6045-50, with numerous key levels within this congested range (6009, 6025). I am still holding my 10% long runner from the ~6002 add this afternoon. With the next two sessions being holiday trading days, do not over-trade. These sessions will likely have low volume, low liquidity, and a higher failure rate for setups due to the absence of substantial institutional participation. Most holiday sessions tend to drift higher, but this is not guaranteed. Friday morning could see some better moves, but my bias is to avoid entries until Monday and let my runner continue working. Key Levels to Watch: 1. 6009 (Major Support): This is the first downside test, but it has been heavily worked already. Unlikely to provide a strong setup without fresh demand. 2. 5993-89 (Critical Support): A retest here provides a safer long opportunity if bulls defend this level again. Look for a possible Failed Breakdown at this level to confirm demand remains intact. 3. 6025-28 (Major Resistance): This area remains a key upside test. Reaction here could determine whether bulls can push higher or if the range tightens further. Scenarios for Thursday and Friday: Bull Case: 1. Hold 5993-89: As long as bulls defend this zone, the range remains intact, and ES can build structure for another push higher. This could look like a test of 6025-28, a minor dip, and then a re-test of 6045-50. 2. Breakout Above 6045-50: If bulls clear this resistance, the next targets are 6069, then 6089. Further upside could extend toward 6112 and beyond. 3. Ultra Bullish Scenario: ES skips further downside tests entirely, flagging above 6009 and pushing directly to test 6025-28. A breakout here sets the stage for continuation toward the highs. ** I’d normally give a spot to add on strength but we have two holiday sessions ahead so this is impossible to do without seeing the action real-time. Bear Case: 1. Breakdown Below 5993-89: For a short setup, patience is critical. The ideal entry comes after: • A final bounce attempt at 5993-89, or • A failed breakdown of today’s low that fizzles out, ensuring the demand from this level has been exhausted. Enter short only after sellers flush below the structure’s lows (e.g., 5986 or higher), confirming that demand has been taken off the table. This reduces the risk of being trapped by a reversal. Refer to Edu Section for example. 2. Targets on Breakdown: If 5993-89 fails and momentum builds, watch for a test of 5963, 5952, or even a failed breakdown recovery around 5972. Be cautious as breakdown trades are low win-rate setups and prone to trapping shorts unless confirmed. Summary for Thursday and Friday: • Bullish Lean: As long as 5993-89 holds, the market remains in consolidation. This favors a move toward 6025-28, followed by an eventual breakout to 6069, 6089, and higher. • Bearish Risks: A loss of 5993-89 could trigger a deeper sell-off to 5963, 5952, or beyond. Short setups require patience and confirmation of seller strength. Holiday trading requires extra caution. Avoid chasing moves, focus on high-probability setups, and let price confirm structure before taking trades. Remember: Low liquidity can lead to erratic moves. Stay disciplined and prioritize capital preservation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg