ES UpdateIndicators aren't showing much but gap did fill.
My SPY chart is wrong because the gap happened during the one hour break, and futures dropped before the break.
ES1! trade ideas
Earnings this week pushes Spy upSpy will see more upside this week with Meta earnings tomorrow after market close. Google was already a good tone setter of this week.
Are We Close Making Third Lower High ?Staying long XLF SPY UVXY Short MAGS IWM
Have my hedges on be ready a drop can happen anytime 565 target can we get their
Will know by Friday Big Earnings This Week.
Cautiously longThe S&P 500 daily chart indicates buyers are present but the overall structure implies we should be cautiously long at these levels. We still have a lot of fundamental information and economic information coming out this week that can stimulate this market in either direction.
Weekly Price Action: S&P500 Emini Futures ES1! Tuesday 4/29/2025In this video, we will be looking into the potential price action ES1!.
Bullish Price Delivery on MESIn this week's analysis of the ES futures contract, it still looks reasonable to expect bullish price action.
Given the price delivery over the past few weeks, it appears that large institutions are continuing to push the market higher — a strong signal to maintain a bullish bias!
Key levels I'm watching:
Bullish target: 5,590 (with potential for even higher moves)
Support zones:
First support around 5,497
Stronger support around 5,447 in a worst-case scenario
While it's important to recognize that we may be approaching a "high" within the larger downtrend, from a short-term perspective (this week), I expect these support levels to hold and for bullish momentum to continue.
Of course, as with all speculation, we’ll monitor closely and react accordingly — always studying price action one candlestick at a time!
April 29, 2025 - Waiting for the Crash or the Miracle?Hello everyone, it’s April 29, 2025. Yesterday’s market session was about as exciting as watching paint dry. After months of Trump-fueled chaos, investors seem almost relieved that… nothing happened. Indices barely moved: TVC:DJI up 0.28%, SP:SPX up a pathetic 0.06%, CME_MINI:NQ1! down 0.10%. In short: we’re falling from a 150-story building, and so far, so good — but we know the real pain comes when we hit the ground.
Markets are clinging to hopes that Trump’s trade war with China might get a Hollywood-style happy ending. He’s calmed down a bit. Stopped slamming Powell, flirted with diplomacy, and softened up on auto tariffs. But with an avalanche of critical economic data coming (Consumer Confidence, GDP, PCE, Jobs) and Magnificent Seven earnings, no one’s taking big bets right now. Everyone’s waiting to see if the economic parachute opens, or if we get pancaked on impact.
Meanwhile, US macro isn’t looking great. Confidence is sinking — 53% of Americans say their finances are worsening, a record since COVID. Consumer spending is stalling, companies like NASDAQ:AAL and NASDAQ:DPZ are canceling forecasts, and the real estate market is coughing. Even hardcore Trump supporters are starting to sweat. The US might still technically be growing, but psychologically, the recession has already started.
OANDA:XAUUSD is holding strong at $3,321, BLACKBULL:WTI is around $61.57, and BINANCE:BTCUSDT is cruising near $94,400. Futures this morning are flailing between -0.6% and +0.2%, dancing to the tune of whatever headline drops next.
On the political front, Trump pulled a classic backpedal on auto tariffs: no double penalties for carmakers, partial refunds on tariffs already paid, and promises of time for US production reshoring. Nice words but rebuilding car factories will take years.
As for NASDAQ:NVDA , it’s under pressure after China banned sales of its H20 chips. Huawei’s Ascend 910D chip is stepping in — good for China, but too slow and too pricey for the rest of the world. Nvidia stays king globally for now, but the tech war is heating up.
Today, eyes are on key numbers: US Consumer Confidence (expected 87.7) and JOLTS job openings (expected 7.49M). Also, a heavy lineup of earnings: NYSE:V , NASDAQ:SBUX , NASDAQ:COKE , NYSE:PFE , NYSE:SNAP , and more.
For now, we’re still in free fall, hoping there’s a giant crash pad waiting at the bottom. Hang tight — it’s going to be another wild one.
Enter short at level 5540 I will entry short at 5540 because option market and block trades told me that condition are good for a retracement.
I will enter short at this level 5540 stop loss 25 points
target 15 points
after 5/7 points i will protect my position managing my stop loss in order to gain some points and broker's fees.
Retracement Lower Before Continuing HigherThis week could be another bullish week.
The move down yesterday could be our manipulation to continue higher later this week. As we had a sweep on a daily level, I will be looking for retracement lower (today) before finishing the week higher.
Where Is Market Going ? Hint Have A Hedge SmallMarkets in no mans land looking 565
Then dump break make new lows
lets see how we do tomorrow .
April 28 Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +1228
Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
Signals were pretty on point today, almost all of them worked out effectively, I mainly use the signals to guide my direction and 20pt stoploss to prevent the position from blowing up.
**Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System**
— 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal, (B+ Set up, triple sell)
10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
12:35 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Double signal)
— 2:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal
2:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Over 5470 = Bullish, Under 5470 = Bearish
Video Recap -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
S&P futures ES1! .. or SPY parallel channels for this weekNot much to explain here...since so many these days can't last through even a half a paragraph....but, the two lines capture a decent amount of stuff and show the most recent action of today with the ping-pong whipsaw.
Does it hit the question mark or stay in the lower parallel...it all depends on how Amazon and Apple can 'Tim cook-their books' and show the world that raging credit defaults and stagnating US with tensions going to hell around the globe doesn't matter.
Would guess from Wed-Thursday that:
Microsoft dips early and then trends sideways before a slight tilt down....
Meta just rips cause I have no idea how they achieve anything except cooking so...
Qualcomm makes up a guidance that show modest 2nd half recovery after "The current tariff uncertainty is stabilized and the need for technology advancement outshines global tensions" or something to that affect.
Amazon and Apple are a repeat of what I said before....Amazon will say they had strong buying heading into the tariffs but they see a slight pull back in consumer willingness to spend. Their cloud-whatever will somehow deliver them through the earnings call with some like 2.37% beat or some crap- but they will probably use 3 words that some algo doesn't want to hear and their stock will initially pop and then retrace the pop and pullback the equivalent move but to the downside. And lastly, Apple....don't care for them and will just say this- "We see strong foreign demand for the iPhone abroad with a high interest from India now that manufacturing will be shifted to that market(minus the fact it is only for the US market...all foreign production will be in China still and the "made in India" will be a quasi fulfillment slight of hand). While we are wading through the uncertainty of China-US relations in regard to tariffs- we see a sustained interest in iPhone sales with an increase in Apple cloud/whatever they call it- services maybe- from foreigners". So.......Apple goes initially down on some like margin metric being a miss or like revenue being like .8% off...but then Cook squeaks a fat steamer on the intercom which allows for the short reversal to the upside, which will kinda die out by next Monday.
Or.....All the above get slammed and the puts go into the weekend happy. Check OptionCharts.io for the open interest for the 30th and may 1st...decent action on the put positions already hitting almost 3/4 million...also just be understanding that Wednesday may be window dressing day for monthly hedge fund/brokerage portfolio allocations...So if there are bad earnings they may dump stock to let their people know they aren't exposed as heavy...but if good earnings you may get a ripping short squeeze from them trying to load up their customers with the big 7...so be careful out there...
Play with the money you have...and not with the money you can't afford to lose....for margins make marginal gains and massive losses when things go wrong- just see the Japanese Pensions unloading treasuries...some benefit...many lose... :)
5 min view:
Addition of one more parallel on the 30 min:
and a 5 min view of the one above on this week's lines:
A market setting up.Monday in the S&P 500 daily chart indicates that buyers bought the break in this market setting up a bullish bias in a week that is filled with economic and equity reports which create a tremendous amount of uncertainty.
S&P 500 ... ES1! ... SPY... a Gann review from 2000Basically performed another Gann Box copy-n-Stack technique and have aligned everything exactly on the daily and then switched to the 4hr
Some interesting levels occur and seems like that gap fill at 5566.25 or so or possible run to 5600 would be in the cards...but a lot of levels are smashing all together.
Make sure to expand the chart by using you mouse along the bottom of the scale, pull it left to expand or right to shrink....
Make sure to also click in the bottom right corner, hover you mouse over where price meets the date on the scale and click the "L" Log function to see if anything else comes up that different from my yellow "attention getting" marks.
Well....that's about all I got for doodles for tonight....enjoy.
weekly view to see the stacking and the duration of this run since 2000..thats quick high up eh??
1 hr view with gap highlighted:
5min close up with lower gap highlighted....so green path if good earnings week/economic data, or red path which trends to that gap fill...the choice is the investor's
$ES = More downside, the bear flag and $3914 - $4376 targetsIf you look at the chart, you can see that ever since April 7th, we've been consolidating in a bear flag.
I think what's most likely here is that we break down and hit one of the targets below. The reason being, if we look at the chart since the start of the correction, we've seen 4/5 waves so far, so it would make sense that there'd be a final leg down.
Let's see if we end up hitting one of the targets. If we do, it'll mark the bottom of the correction.
ES Futures: Upcoming Mag 7 Earnings and NFP Report
This week, although there was not much market-moving macro newsflow over the weekend, we are approaching month-end. In addition, several key catalysts are on the horizon, including earnings from the Magnificent 7 and the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which typically arrives on the first Friday of the month.
The Federal Reserve is currently in its blackout period ahead of the interest rate decision scheduled for May 7th, 2025.
As part of our process, we will be reviewing technical levels and drawing a plan based on current market structure. ES futures are currently trading above the March 2025 lows. A “death cross” — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average on the daily timeframe — was recently observed. This pattern is commonly touted by analysts as a bear market indicator.
However, in a macro-driven environment, this could potentially be a false signal.
Key Levels:
• mCVAL: 5622
• Upper Neutral Zone: 5620 -5585
• March 2025 Low: 5533.75
• 2022 CVAH: 5384.75
• Lower Neutral Zone: 5171.75 -5150.75
Our scenarios are as follows:
Scenario 1: Range-bound price action
A P-shaped micro composite profile suggests resistance at our neutral zone. It is labeled neutral because the price is trading above the March 2025 lows. However, if the level above acts as resistance, we expect further range-bound price action. Markets may trade below the mCVAL for further price discovery and potentially establish a new short-term range, with the 2024 lows acting as downside support.
Scenario 2: Mag 7 and NFP as bullish catalysts
Four of the Magnificent 7 companies are reporting earnings this week. The Mag 7 collectively represent around one-third of the S&P 500 index by market capitalization. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to report on Wednesday after the close, while Amazon and Apple report on Thursday after the close.
On Friday, the NFP data will be released. This could serve as a fundamentally net-positive catalyst for U.S. markets, especially in light of recent shocks that have weakened sentiment.
In this scenario, we will be closely watching our neutral zone and mCVAL as potential areas to initiate long trades.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
Blue Zones: Neutral zones.
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
VAL: Value Area Low
VAH: Value Area High
VP: Volume Profile
CME_MINI:ES1!
SP500 Weekly Action Areas & Price Targets 28/04/25In this update we review the recent price action in the emini SP500 futures and identify high-probability action areas and price objectives for the trading week ahead. To review today's video analysis click here!
SP 500 - Look Out Below!Downward possibilities for SP can be breathtaking. 1000 point drop possible. Cheap puts can score big.
Perhaps Friday's job report will be the trigger??
ES April 28 - May 2 review and weekly planES multiple time frames review and the plan for upcoming week. Waiting for the retrace lower on Monday,Tuesday and then move higher
S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing.
This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound.
Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points.
The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650.
Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones.
From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments:
Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection.
Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667).
The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift.
📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short.
Summary:
The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate.
We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone.
COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal.
However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000.
Current Strategy:
Slight bullish bias above 5,500.
Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650.
Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023.
Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450.
Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
Stock market, fundamental highlights to watch this weekWhile equity markets have rebounded from their low point in early April, this week, straddling the end of April and the beginning of May, sees the release of top-tier fundamental data.
The trade war is the new dominant fundamental factor. But the market is most interested in the impact on US inflation and the US labor market.
The US PCE inflation report on Wednesday April 30 and the NFP report on Friday May 2 should therefore be kept under review.
Only the path of trade diplomacy can keep the trajectory of US disinflation intact and thus enable the Federal Reserve to resume cutting its federal funds rate for a sound reason (i.e. inflation trending towards 2% and a stable unemployment rate of around 4% of the working population). This resumption of the Fed funds rate cut is essential to validate the S&P500's major low on the 4800 point support.
Here are 4 reasons why we believe the trade war is unlikely to cause a second wave of inflation. The PCE index on Wednesday April 30 should see a resumption of the decline in the nominal inflation rate towards 2%.
Reason 1: The first all-out trade war between China and the USA between 2017 and 2019 did not cause an inflationary wave, and even ended with a trade agreement between China and the USA in December 2019 (Phase One Trade Deal)
Reason 2: The trade war directly concerns agricultural products and manufactured goods, but no services are directly affected. Services account for 70% of the calculation of US inflation rates, and the USA is a service economy accounting for 80% of its GDP.
Reason 3: With the risk of a global economic slowdown against the backdrop of the trade war, the price of oil has plummeted on the stock market, and this will have a strong downward impact on the nominal inflation rate, with a direct + indirect effect estimated at 10% in the calculation of inflation rates.
Reason 4: Disinflation in the real estate sector is structural, accounting for 30% of the inflation calculation, and has no connection with the trade war.
The NFP report on Friday May 2 will enable us to assess whether or not the trade war has already begun to damage the US labor market. This is the ultimate barometer for assessing the likelihood of an economic recession.
CONCLUSION: this week, we'll be keeping a very close eye on US PCE inflation, the NFP report and, of course, all the news surrounding trade diplomacy and the Trump/Powell relationship (ahead of the FED's decision on Wednesday May 7).
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Weekly Chart Shows Buyers Holding, But Resistance TightensMarket Overview:
Futures are hovering at a crucial zone. In this update, we analyze the evolving trend structure, dissect price action at Fib resistance, and highlight what levels matter most heading into the next session.
Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis
Trend Condition:
Bullish Trends: 8
Bearish Trends: 6
Overview: The market is currently bullish, with 8 trend lines signaling upward momentum. However, the presence of 6 bearish trends shows that mixed conditions remain across different timeframes.
Price Action and Momentum Zones
Current Price and Change:
Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,520.25, down by 32.25 points or -0.58%.
Market Behavior:
The weekly chart shows consolidation just below major resistance, with sellers maintaining pressure near the 23.6% retracement zone. Price action remains choppy after several weeks of volatility.
Momentum Zones:
Price is stuck within a corrective zone between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels. In this context, these zones act as countertrend resistance, and bulls need a clean breakout above 5,537 to shift sentiment more decisively.
Fib Retracement Levels
Current Position Relative to Levels:
The market is currently just below the 23.6% retracement level.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
23.6% → 5,537.68
38.2% → 5,148.66
50.0% → 4,834.25
61.8% → 4,519.84
Analysis:
A clear breakout above 5,537.68 would indicate a more meaningful recovery attempt. Failure here could send price back toward the 5,148 or 4,834 retracement levels if momentum fades.
Overall Market Interpretation
While the broader trend is still bullish on this timeframe, the failure to reclaim 5,537 suggests caution. Consolidation below major Fib levels implies that buyers are struggling to regain control. A breakout or breakdown from this range will set the next directional tone.
Summary
The S&P 500 Futures are showing mixed strength early in the week. The broader trend remains bullish overall, but the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is acting as resistance. This level will likely determine whether consolidation continues or a stronger move higher begins.
Weekly Market Forecast: Buy Stocks! Sell Oil! Buy Gold!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Oil, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of April 28 - May 2nd.
Markets are looking tradeable again.
The indices look bullish, creating +FVGs as they move higher.
Oil has corrected a bearish impulse, so it could be poised to move lower from the Daily and Weekly -FVG.
Gold took a breather last week and could move higher from the Weekly +FVG it just created.
Let's go!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Thank you so much!
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