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ES1! trade ideas

zone trading using fib zones The premise of the zones is as follows : the zones , which are the orange boxes, present a target for price expansion. Once price CLOSES outside of any zone, not just the wick but the candle, there is a 70% chance it will travel that path to the next zone, before closing out from the zone which it came from. There is a caveat, for the orange line on the chart, between two of the zones, there is a 70% chance price will reach the orange line, not follow through to the end, though it may , as per my backtesting its not as certain as simply assuming it will touch the orange line. Furthermore, If price reaches the end of one zone, and RSI + MFI are both overbought or oversold, this is a good indicator price may reverse to the zone start. A good time to take profit for me is if price reaches the end of a zone, or if the MFI and RSI are overbought or sold against my position, I usually exit as that is a deccent signal for price reversal. The zones should be used as a DIRECTIONAL BIAS , meaning that if the zones are for the hourly chart, you should be looking to enter on a lower timeframe, using your own trading strategy, this simply confirms you entry and tells you which trades might be good to avoid. It can be used as a standalone strategy but I prefer to use it's bias for a few quick trades on a lower timeframe rather than wait the entire zone or risk a spike out, where price might enter the stop loss area, but not close on that end of the zone, and go the way it was predicted, this as you can guess, is a valid trade idea for a high RR trade reversal! Dont just take my word for it..... look at the proof ......
CME_MINI:MES1!
by user2839409
Recap: Weekly Trade Plan March 10th, 2025CME_MINI:ES1! In this TradingView blog, we will recap our trade plan posted on March 10th, 2025. Please note that this is a recap, and since then, we have also published our updated price map and weekly plan for the current week. Today is also the Federal Reserve's decision day. Here is our updated price map from the weekly plan published on March 10th, 2025: Our updated price map for ES Futures Key Levels: • Important Level to reclaim if no correction: 5795.25 - 5800 • Key LVN: 5738 - 5696 • Mid 2024 range: 5574.50 • Key Support: 5567.25 - 5528.75 • 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5449.25 • 2022 CVAH: 5280.25 It is important to note that when we provide our thoughts and reasoning for the levels we map in our recap, we have the benefit of hindsight. Likewise, when we publish our weekly trading plan and share our thoughts at the start of the week, we are anticipating potential market movements on the hard right edge. This is where randomness and uncertainty are key points. If we were to rank our process chronologically, this is how we note the importance of each component that makes up our plan. 1. Big Picture 2. Key Levels/Price Map 3. Scenarios Our big picture is based on how we view the global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Key levels are mapped utilizing our methodology considering market auction theory and volume profiling. Note how our key level, 'Mid-range 2024', on higher time frame provided support. At times you may see two scenarios, at other times three. Scenarios are just an anticipation which a trader should adjust should any new information come to light. Although you may note that our scenarios play out mostly from reviewing our blogs. Our aim is to help you create a process for yourself. Note how we anticipated near-mirroring price action for the week, though our reasoning was influenced by higher inflation data. However, the inflation reading came in lower than expected. Fast forward to today, all eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, SEP, and the FOMC press conference scheduled for later today.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ES, Mar 19, 2025With today's FOMC Federal Funds announcement, I expect CME_MINI:ES1! to sweep liquidity below the current range, tapping into the daily liquidity level and daily average sweep zone before reversing higher. From there, I anticipate a push through the 4H Imbalance (IFVG) and continuation toward the daily average expansion area, which aligns with key daily buy-side liquidity. This move would follow a classic liquidity grab and expansion pattern, with price reclaiming key levels and driving higher as liquidity unlocks. If buyers step in as expected, ES should have the momentum to reach and potentially exceed the daily expansion target. Note weekly FVG above daily expansion level. However, if ES fails to displace above the 4H IFVG, it would signal a lack of strength to sustain a move higher. In that case, a rejection at this level could trigger a shift in momentum, increasing the likelihood of further downside as liquidity is redistributed lower. If that happens, I will be targeting the daily average expansion level at $5,600.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by dekatrades
1
S&P 500 E-mini Futures VWAP Breakout Strategy Sharing a solid intraday idea for you all – something I’ve been running on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures (30-min chart) lately, and it’s been delivering clean setups. VWAP Breakout Play I’m focusing on simple VWAP-based breakouts. Here’s the breakdown: The setup: • Wait for price to break above or below the VWAP with strong momentum (big candles + solid volume). • I always confirm with a momentum indicator like MACD or RSI to filter out the noise. Entries: • Breakout Long: When price pushes above VWAP + momentum aligns. • Breakout Short: When price dumps below VWAP + momentum confirmation. Exits & Stops: • Scale out at session highs/lows or key pivots. • Stop-loss goes just beyond VWAP to keep the risk tight. • If momentum fades, I’m out. Why I like it: VWAP attracts institutional flow, and combining it with momentum gives this strategy a solid edge, especially around U.S. session opens when volatility kicks in. Give it a try and tweak it to your liking!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by CatalystNKD
All Relevant ES Levels Near Current Price (June Contracts)If you want to copy and paste these levels on your chart for the new June contracts: - Scroll to the bottom outside of this chart publication and look for three dots (…). - Click on those dots and select the option that says “Make it Mine” or “Grab this Chart”. This will instantly apply my whole chart setup to your own TradingView account. Of course all you need is the levels, so you can adjust the colors or whatever else to your liking if need be.
CME_MINI:ESM2025
by ESMorg
ES/SPY PathLatest outlook analysis. Possible paths. (two main ones in my view) See how it has exited the channel? This could be good to free itself and produce upward movement out of the W pattern. Or of course it could paint a larger W even with a big exhaustion push down stopping out all the bottom pickers and scooping up all their shares before ripping higher. Of course there are those that speculate we are now transitioning into a bear market. Could they be right? Sure. could they be wrong? Yes. Could we be suck here for a while? Sure. I hope not!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by tbuckle
1
S&P - Will we follow 2020/2021?The S&P has been trading in a rising pattern for over 700 days, similar to the rising pattern observed in 2020 and 2021. In that instance, the price of the S&P broke below the support trendline and lost all SMA support, while also making a lower low. This has not occurred since the start of the current pattern. Could a deeper correction follow? Blue line = 50-day MA Red line = 100-day MA Yellow line = 200-day MA Analysis of the 2020/2021 Price Action We can conclude the following five points: 1. The rising wedge lasted for nearly 700 days. 2. The price consistently made higher highs and higher lows. 3. The S&P found support on the SMAs and never broke below the 200-day MA. 4. After approximately 700 days, the S&P broke below the rising wedge, lost all key SMA support, and made a lower low. 5. During the retest of the rising wedge and key SMAs (which had turned into resistance), a bearish cross (50-day SMA below the 100-day SMA) occurred, leading to a downtrend. How Does the 2020/2021 Price Action Correlate to 2023/2024? We can conclude the following five points: 1. The rising wedge lasted for approximately 750 days. 2. The price continued making higher highs and higher lows. 3. The S&P found support on the SMAs and never broke below the 200-day SMA. 4. After around 750 days, the S&P broke below the rising wedge, lost all key SMA support, and made a lower low. 5. A bearish cross between the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA is currently forming. When we overlay the bar pattern of the 2021 bearish price action onto the current chart, it suggests that a revisit to 4,750 is possible. This level is both a technical support and the point where the S&P started its downtrend in 2021. Conclusion Will the S&P follow the 2021 price action, resulting in a sustained downtrend, or will it reclaim all lost SMA levels and continue its uptrend? The price action suggests that there is a real possibility of weakness in the coming months.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Youriverse
7
ES futures update 18/03/'25In today's market update, I maintain a neutral stance. While we saw a breakout yesterday, price has since been rejected at the 1-hour resistance. The key area I'm watching is the 4-hour demand zone. Since the overall trend on higher timeframes remains bearish, I plan to wait until price reaches this level—I'm cautious about entering long positions. If price clearly rejects bullishly from the 4-hour demand zone, I will go long. However, if the 4-hour demand zone breaks down, I'll look for a short position on a retest of this zone.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by YungZkittlez
ES futures update 17/03/'25Last week, I mapped out some trading zones that are still valid and unchanged. The 4H supply zone has broken out, so I will be looking for a long position after a retest of this broken supply zone, which should now act as support. My last trade was a short from this zone, resulting in a small profit since market closing prevented reaching the full take-profit target. Let's see if the bullish momentum can hold during the retest entry. As always, follow for more market updates.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by YungZkittlez
ES Futures Market Outlook & Key LevelsCME_MINI:ES1! As we discussed in last week’s TradingView blog, the ES futures are currently undergoing a 10% correction. You can access the full context through the link here. Rollover Notice: Today marks the rollover of ES futures to the June 2025 contract. The rollover adjustment using Friday’s settlement prices for ESH2025 and ESM2025 is +52.25. To map out the new levels for ESM2025, simply add +52.25 to the levels on ESH2025. Note: TradingView will roll over the continuous ES1! chart on Tuesday, March 18, 2025. Key Events This Week: This week, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision , FOMC press conference , and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP ), which includes the Fed’s dot plot, inflation expectations, and growth forecasts for the next two years. This release will set the tone for market movements, at least until the clarity of the looming reciprocal tariffs deadline on April 2, 2025. Key Levels to Watch: • Bullish LIS / Yearly Open 2025: 5,949.25 • Key Level to Reclaim: 5,795 - 5,805 • Resistance Zone: 5,704.50 - 5,719.75 • Bearish LIS / Mid Range 2024: 5,574.50 • 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5,449.25 • 2022 CVAH: 5,280.25 Market Scenarios: Scenario 1: Fed Support ("Fed Put") The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week. However, markets are forward-looking, so the key focus will be on the updated SEP forecast and the Fed’s press conference. A dovish stance and flexibility to support the US economy, including rate cut expectations moving to the May/June meetings, will drive sentiment. This would imply markets pricing in more rate cuts throughout 2025. The CME Fedwatch tool is a useful resource for tracking Fed fund probabilities and comparing these with the dot plot projections. Scenario 2: Trade War 2.0 If the Fed remains in a "wait and see" mode, maintaining a restrictive stance while uncertainties surrounding Trade War 2.0 persist, markets may face heightened volatility. The combination of a restrictive Fed policy and geopolitical tensions could act as a double whammy for markets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear