Short trade
5min TF overview and entry
Sellside trade
Tue 19th Nov 24
4.30 pm
NY Session PM
5min TF entry
Entry 5939.75
Profit level 5930.50 (0.16%)
Stop level 5945.00 (0.09%)
RR 1.76
Reason for entry: chasing sellside liquidity...
ES1! trade ideas
Positive close on FridayThe positive close on Friday implies that buyers are willing to hold a position in the S&P 500 daily over the weekend. This would imply follow-through to the upside on Monday but not a big day up. The objective is 6000.
20241122 ESI anticipate more upside and reversal to the downside after. The +DOL is NWOG and possible bs raid. Reversal after HI news. With new LOW as -DOL. If PA showes more upside before HI news that will be a good sign for the later downside reversal. PA can go higher than it is anticipated at the moment. This upside move is to seduce the retail into the late longs, their stops will be raided on the move to the downside later. I anticipate that the post-election downside move is not finished and there is more downside to be delivered.
S&P will grab downside liq. and rally higher, risk 1-3 %we see a downside imbalance and liq sitting at the lows where i put the line as you can see, on a daily we are bullish so we are looking for buys, as well, the buy zone is likely where the price reacts so that would be an extra confluence for us to take a trade. This is a rough analysis we clearly have to see how the market will move as the us session open at 15:30 ( german time ).
Es Morning UpdateYesterday (as mentioned in the plan sent out Wednesday’s), I was anticipating a rally to 5993, the flag resistance from the November high in #ES_F. After an 80-point move, buyers got to 5986 and sold off.
As of now: 5961 and 5954 are key supports. Holding above keeps 5972 and 5980 in play. Consolidation here could set up 5998+. If 5954 fails, expect a dip to 5942, then 5917. Protect capital.
es! to the moon!A Santa Claus rally is the sustained increase in the stock market that occurs around the Christmas holiday on Dec. 25. Most estimate these rallies happen in the week leading up to the Christmas holiday, while others see trends that begin Christmas Day through Jan. 2.
ES Price action review thursday RTH & Overnight 11-22-24Going over the price action from yesterdays RTH session and the overnight session ES looking for clues the market is leaving us and making sure we put time in the film room. only A+ trade setups today. no setup no trade.
Buyers are here butBuyers are here in the S&P 500 daily chart but can they maintain this momentum going into the weekend with a positive close. 6000 is the next objective for a close going into the weekend.
2024-11-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral below 5990, max bullish above. Bearish only below 5900. I have the close near a bear and a bull trend line, so tough spot for any prediction. I do think after so many attempts by the bears, they have given up and we are now free to do the second round of this blow-off top. Consider me surprised if we continue in my drawn bull channel and bears can get this down 60+ points again.
comment : Daily chart tells you 4 consecutive bull bars on increasing volume. Very high chance tomorrow the bears will give up and we test 6050+ again. The bear trend line could still be valid or not, we will only know tomorrow. Above 5980/5990 we will see an acceleration upwards. On the 1h tf you can make a case for 5980 being at the crossing of bull and bear trend line but we will have an answer tomorrow morning.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5855 - 6100
bull case: Higher lows and higher highs. Bulls want a retest of the ath and above. I have a measured move target at 6150 and even above 6300. Bulls have all the arguments on their side for a second leg up but to get it, they would have to prevent the market from getting another strong move down to below 5920. It should probably stay above 5950 to trap many bears who sold the highs again.
Invalidation is below 5940ish.
bear case : Bears do not have much tbh. They sold every high the last days but selling is getting weaker and they can only do it so often before they stop and will only try higher again. Best case for bears is to stay below 5990 and do what we did the whole week, sell the highs for at least 60 points.
Invalidation is above 5990.
short term: Bullish. Above 5990 uber bullish for new ath. Neutral below 5950 and below. Only below 5800 I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Same as dax. Yesterdays’ lows held and longs around 5905 were beyond amazing.
ES Morning Session Review 11-21-24Going over the morning session ES looking back for clues as to what the market was telling us. extremely difficult day. did barely any trades today. got stopped on a bunch of swing longs but keep working hard. tomorrow is a new day. taking it light rest of the day unless we get some A+ setups after 2pm EST
s&p lunchbreak, or major pullback?it doesnt seem like the consolidation in major indices has been destructive in terms of major disruption due to current volatility according to these machine learning and adaptive trend based algorithms. as long as we stay above a rising average we should trend toward the mean of the channel provided there isnt a major destabilizing event geopolitically or otherwise. its looking more and more like a weekly higher low is more or less set, and the index wants to return to around the 6020 level. if we fail to break the day high here, i would look for any daily higher low above tuesdays low for bull continuation.
SPX - Downside into Thanksgiving?It's a great day in the world and I hope you're having a great day as well. I'm looking at the potential for SPX to make a downward move going into next week as it has in prior years.
I'm looking at a 5 wave structure down from the highs in early November followed by what currently appears to be a 3 wave structure up into where we currently are.
If the structure is correct, we should move up a little bit today into the golden zone that I've outlined on the chart and reject from there. If we do get that rejection and we start to take out some of the pivots which I outlined in the video, we should have increased confidence in the short idea.
Nothing is certain and all trades should have risk managed in some way or another, but we should see a move down to 5800 if this holds true. It's about a 180 point move from where we are now with only about 25 point risk.
Trade carefully and always ask questions in the comments below if you have them.
ES morning update Nov 21This week has revolved around one key levels: 5886, the “money magnet.” Bulls dominate above it, bears take over below. Late yesterday, I was anticipating a rally to 5908, 5922, and 5942+, and we hit those levels and more.
As of now: 5942 is weak support. Holding above keeps 5960 and 5971+ in play. If 5942 fails, expect a dip to 5932, then 5908-11.
Overnight ES price ACtion REview 11-21-24Going over Price Action ES overnight session looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we are going to trade today. we are Risk Mangers first and foremost.
The S&P Mini11 21 24 I spent a lot of time looking at bigger time frames on the S&P because they can show you very good reversal setups and they're clean. you can also find very good ABCD patterns that that you can miss on the lower timeframes. I would like to show you the detailson a four-hour chart and how you can stay out of trouble when this Market actually expanded which completely changes the way you should look at the market especially when you're trying to find trade location.
Not expecting volatilityThe structure on the daily chart of the S&P 500 implies an inside type day which means were not looking for a dramatic increase in volatility to the upside or downside unless we have new news to motivate the market for a directional move.
ES price Action REview 11-20-24 RTH NVDA Earnings AfterHoursGoing over the ES price action RTH 11-20 Wednesday looking for clues the market was leaving us. replaying the day multiple times today. replaying the open. replaying the morning session replaying the entire day. get your film review time in every day.
ES to rally
ES could reach R6 tomorrow or monday, if you swing trade it doesn't matter
daytradi g is inherently dangerous and high risk. yes it is more fun, but develop the self control to ride the waves, measures by EWT and the Pivots and make bigger profits
learn patience and discipling to win.
The buy was signaled yesterday at S6, the crazy looking pattern on the chart is 5 waves up, followed by an ABC down, followed by a bounce of S3 ( buy level ) now on wave to up on 30m
ES/SPX Morning Update Nov 20thYesterday, buyers delivered a textbook setup: a Failed Breakdown at the key 5886 level, which triggering longs. The 5956 target, as outlined, was hit perfectly overnight.
As of now: Let runners ride until the move concludes. Supports are 5943 (weak) and 5928. If we base here, 5963 and 5972+ are the next targets. A failure of 5928 would signal a deeper dip.
ES Bear FlagES is sitting smack in the middle of its range. I'm bearish for now but would wait for a break to do anything. A break below would likely lead to a flush back to low of day around 5880 and maybe ever lower. To the upside, watching 5931 for potential resistance.
OverNight ES Price ACtion Review 11-20-24Going over the Overnight Price ACtion looking for clues as to what the market wants to do for the morning session. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong.
Andrews pitchfork and powerline bouncees 7 am start session enter break of fork
stop below low target top channel
