Morning Session Review ES RTH 11-25-24Going over the Morning RTH price action looking for clues the market was leaving us and now putting together a plan for End of Day. no A+ setups no trades. we are risk managers first and foremost.
ES1! trade ideas
Es/SPX Morning Update Nov25thBuyers let patience pay off. Last week (and the week before) had formed a 2-week bull flag with 5980 resistance. Mentioned that if 6002 clears if could give us momentum to 6017. Buyers gapped up over night and now we are sitting exact at 6017.
As of now: Let runners ride if you have them. 6009 (weak) and 6002 are supports. Holding above keeps 6027-32, 6046+ in play. A failure at 6002 could lead to a gap fill lower.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 11-25-24 MondayGoing over the Futures Open from Sunday to now looking for clues the market is leaving us and coming up with a plan for today. always remember we are risk managers but this week is very bullish. good luck today and make sure you do all your work.
SP500**SP500:**
This week's forecast is for the price to rise slightly to the area between 6011.75 and 6046.25.
#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Bullish. 5 consecutive days where bears tried and bulls closed at the highs. Buy signals do not get better than this. Above 6000 we see 6050 and most likely an acceleration up to new highs. 6100 and 6150 the obvious next targets. Bears need a daily close below 5850 and would still have a bigger bull trend line to break there so the downside is likely limited.
Quote from last week:
comment: 50% retracement hit and market closed above it on Friday. My preferred path for next week is a huge bull reversal higher. Is this likely after 2 strong bear days? No it’s not, so I have to wait for either side to show a clear new direction or continuation. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell.
comment : Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels : 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6200)
bull case: Last hurrah. 6100 is my first target but can absolutely go beyond 6200. Anything below 5800 would be the end of this. I don’t feel the need to explain this further. The chart is crystal clear. I have written about this blow-off top for many weeks. Just don’t forget to take profits before this turns badly. I do think the odds of this closing 2024 below 6000 are low but can absolutely happen. These bullish profits since August are outrageous and once the run for the exits begins, it will be ruthless.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears gave up on Friday. If they can’t get below 5900 on Monday, we will see a meltup. No bear will come around big time before 6050 and even then I think they will let the bulls show signs of exhaustion before they be aggressive.
Invalidation is above 5800.
outlook last week:
short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5896 and now we are at 5987. Perfect outlook. Hope you made some.
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6100+ are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added potential bullish 5-wave series.
NQ! longsLooking to Take NQ longs Into the 6018.25 Zone it’s Rejecting off a Daily IFVG. the move up is more possible Due to Several Equal Highs and Equal Opens which Means Liquidity = Resting Stops and Orders
ES1! WEEK OF 11/18/24ES1! WEEK OF 11/18/24
To maintain simplicity, once the price moves beyond the WHITE range, monitor for a potential retest of the breached level.
Be prepared to initiate long or short positions targeting the YELLOW ranges.While prices may surpass the YELLOW range targets, these levels provide a robust framework for securing profits. 🎯🫡
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Full Game Plan for Monday Nov 25thPlan for Monday’s Session
Supports:
• Major: 5972, 5945, 5933, 5908, 5899, 5884-5882, 5869, 5855, 5845, 5828, 5818, 5802, 5782, 5760, 5752, 5731, 5709-11, 5691, 5683.
• Minor: 5980, 5967, 5961, 5957, 5948, 5944, 5928, 5922, 5914, 5904, 5893, 5878, 5865, 5850, 5839, 5835, 5812, 5806, 5793, 5777, 5740, 5721, 5702, 5695.
Resistances:
• Major: 5988, 6002, 6017, 6027, 6032, 6050, 6070, 6082, 6093, 6111-13, 6132, 6138, 6172, 6189.
• Minor: 5993, 5998, 6009, 6023, 6038, 6046, 6056, 6062, 6075, 6101, 6117, 6146, 6156, 6165, 6178.
**Context and Strategy:**
ES is coming off a strong Friday close at 5988, right at a key resistance zone. Price action remains in a clear uptrend, but with no major pullbacks or basing structure formed, actionable setups for Monday will require patience. Those who have been here should know what I'm going to say. My absolute least favorite time to trade is days after trend leg. My job is to get in before these big moves. After they play out, my job is done, and I just need to sit and wait for the next setup to appear. This requires one of two things 1) A sharp pullback or 2) Structure (basing to form). If we just keep trending up, there is nothing for me other than holding my runners and letting them do the work. Patients will be verified on Monday.
**Key Levels for Monday:**
1. First Support at 5972: A dip and recovery here could provide a solid base for continuation higher.
2. Major Support at 5945: If 5972 fails, 5945 becomes the next key level. This area has been well-tested and could provide a reaction or bounce, but the cleanest trade would come from a failed breakdown here.
3. Resistance at 6002: A breakout above this level opens the door for higher targets, including 6017 and 6027.
**Bull Case for Monday:**
• Hold Above 5972: Bulls maintain control as long as price holds 5972. A flag or consolidation at this level would create a strong base for a push higher.
• Breakout Through 6002: Reclaiming 6002 and holding above it could fuel momentum toward 6017 and 6027.
• Structure Above 5988: Building a base above 5988 and below 6002 creates a launchpad for further upside.
**Bear Case for Monday:**
• Breakdown Below 5972: A failure at 5972 would likely lead to a test of 5945. I’d need to see a good bounce attempt here and/or failed breakdown (something like test 5967 then recover 72). After this, I’d short below wherever the lows are (probably something like 5964).
• Failed Breakdown at 5945: As always, breakdown trades carry higher risk. Same drill at a 5972 short...A dip below 5945 that recovers quickly could signal a trap for shorts. Wait for confirmation (e.g., a bounce that pays out buyers and then a loss of the lows) before entering.
• Exhaustion at Resistance: Bears can also look for sell reactions at key resistances (6002, 6017) to test lower supports. I never short resistances. Win rate is too low for my liking
**Summary for Monday:**
• Bullish Lean: As long as 5972 holds, the short-term trend remains intact. Watch for opportunities to break out above 6002, targeting 6017 and 6027.
• Bearish Lean: Bears need to break below 5972 or 5945 to regain control and push the market lower toward 5933 and 5908. Failed breakdown setups, however, remain the safer option for entering long positions.
Reminder:
Patience is critical. It’s safer to wait for failed breakdown setups than longing after direct tests, especially at key supports, and confirm with volume before entering long positions if you want to be super precise. Avoid chasing momentum and let the market come to you.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.24 - 11.29.24Last Week :
Sunday Globex opened and held over lower ranges Value which put is in this 940 - 880+/- Distribution Balance, holding under 930s Edge kept giving us weakness into lower VAH but Tuesday Pre Market move into Value failed after tagging the Mean, prices were able to hold and climb back over the Edge which brought stability and more buying to close things up with a push/hold inside above Value.
This Week:
We have a tricky week coming up as we have End of the Month Week, Holiday, Supply inside and above current Value and buying/cost basis that we built up under 940s. This could lead towards slower back and forth trading inside/around this Value. Probably not a week to push for too much continuation on either side and maybe watch for smaller ranges. We are now inside 970 - 620 Intraday Range and if we have enough supply around/above it and buying under that could keep the price balancing around it. Unless volume comes in to knock us back down under VAL and can get us under 940s or make a push over 620s and start holding over 630+ then id be careful on holding too long or looking for big moves on either side, might be more of consolidation choppier trading.
On Daily TF we have again made a move under Smaller MA, made a push for but no tag of anything bigger under and popped back out to finish the week, we may require more sideways action in this current HTF Range of 930s - 650s +/- Before we would be ready for any bigger corrections and this could take time to set up, and of course we arent looking for much higher prices unless we can built up under above Edge and get a good push through it with a hold without coming back in. Time to be careful and tighten up.
S&P 500 emini futuress / US500 short setupS&P 500 e mini futures
Short setup for6000 rr 3.35
pos close around 5780
S&P 500 - weakening ahead of year end?So, a small pull back completed after the 6000 mark, but looking in a wider range, we can see the initial target (5750), after breaking the cup and handle, was passed and stretched for quite some time now.
We are now in the mid of the thanksgiving rally, which will completed probably at the end of the upcoming.
And to be honest, as i read it, and a i already mentions in the nq 100 analysis, the bulls are trying to understand what to do next, and we can see also with the actions on nvda, goog, etc.
my read on this, there is going to be another attempt to push to the top, maybe it will create double top, and then profit taking steps.
I think first target will be around the 5600, to close the gap over there, and depending on the its strength, i think it can go as low as 5200-5400.
Stay safe
Short trade
5min TF overview and entry
Sellside trade
Tue 19th Nov 24
4.30 pm
NY Session PM
5min TF entry
Entry 5939.75
Profit level 5930.50 (0.16%)
Stop level 5945.00 (0.09%)
RR 1.76
Reason for entry: chasing sellside liquidity...
Positive close on FridayThe positive close on Friday implies that buyers are willing to hold a position in the S&P 500 daily over the weekend. This would imply follow-through to the upside on Monday but not a big day up. The objective is 6000.
20241122 ESI anticipate more upside and reversal to the downside after. The +DOL is NWOG and possible bs raid. Reversal after HI news. With new LOW as -DOL. If PA showes more upside before HI news that will be a good sign for the later downside reversal. PA can go higher than it is anticipated at the moment. This upside move is to seduce the retail into the late longs, their stops will be raided on the move to the downside later. I anticipate that the post-election downside move is not finished and there is more downside to be delivered.
S&P will grab downside liq. and rally higher, risk 1-3 %we see a downside imbalance and liq sitting at the lows where i put the line as you can see, on a daily we are bullish so we are looking for buys, as well, the buy zone is likely where the price reacts so that would be an extra confluence for us to take a trade. This is a rough analysis we clearly have to see how the market will move as the us session open at 15:30 ( german time ).
Es Morning UpdateYesterday (as mentioned in the plan sent out Wednesday’s), I was anticipating a rally to 5993, the flag resistance from the November high in #ES_F. After an 80-point move, buyers got to 5986 and sold off.
As of now: 5961 and 5954 are key supports. Holding above keeps 5972 and 5980 in play. Consolidation here could set up 5998+. If 5954 fails, expect a dip to 5942, then 5917. Protect capital.
es! to the moon!A Santa Claus rally is the sustained increase in the stock market that occurs around the Christmas holiday on Dec. 25. Most estimate these rallies happen in the week leading up to the Christmas holiday, while others see trends that begin Christmas Day through Jan. 2.
ES Price action review thursday RTH & Overnight 11-22-24Going over the price action from yesterdays RTH session and the overnight session ES looking for clues the market is leaving us and making sure we put time in the film room. only A+ trade setups today. no setup no trade.
Buyers are here butBuyers are here in the S&P 500 daily chart but can they maintain this momentum going into the weekend with a positive close. 6000 is the next objective for a close going into the weekend.
2024-11-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral below 5990, max bullish above. Bearish only below 5900. I have the close near a bear and a bull trend line, so tough spot for any prediction. I do think after so many attempts by the bears, they have given up and we are now free to do the second round of this blow-off top. Consider me surprised if we continue in my drawn bull channel and bears can get this down 60+ points again.
comment : Daily chart tells you 4 consecutive bull bars on increasing volume. Very high chance tomorrow the bears will give up and we test 6050+ again. The bear trend line could still be valid or not, we will only know tomorrow. Above 5980/5990 we will see an acceleration upwards. On the 1h tf you can make a case for 5980 being at the crossing of bull and bear trend line but we will have an answer tomorrow morning.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5855 - 6100
bull case: Higher lows and higher highs. Bulls want a retest of the ath and above. I have a measured move target at 6150 and even above 6300. Bulls have all the arguments on their side for a second leg up but to get it, they would have to prevent the market from getting another strong move down to below 5920. It should probably stay above 5950 to trap many bears who sold the highs again.
Invalidation is below 5940ish.
bear case : Bears do not have much tbh. They sold every high the last days but selling is getting weaker and they can only do it so often before they stop and will only try higher again. Best case for bears is to stay below 5990 and do what we did the whole week, sell the highs for at least 60 points.
Invalidation is above 5990.
short term: Bullish. Above 5990 uber bullish for new ath. Neutral below 5950 and below. Only below 5800 I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Same as dax. Yesterdays’ lows held and longs around 5905 were beyond amazing.
ES Morning Session Review 11-21-24Going over the morning session ES looking back for clues as to what the market was telling us. extremely difficult day. did barely any trades today. got stopped on a bunch of swing longs but keep working hard. tomorrow is a new day. taking it light rest of the day unless we get some A+ setups after 2pm EST
s&p lunchbreak, or major pullback?it doesnt seem like the consolidation in major indices has been destructive in terms of major disruption due to current volatility according to these machine learning and adaptive trend based algorithms. as long as we stay above a rising average we should trend toward the mean of the channel provided there isnt a major destabilizing event geopolitically or otherwise. its looking more and more like a weekly higher low is more or less set, and the index wants to return to around the 6020 level. if we fail to break the day high here, i would look for any daily higher low above tuesdays low for bull continuation.
SPX - Downside into Thanksgiving?It's a great day in the world and I hope you're having a great day as well. I'm looking at the potential for SPX to make a downward move going into next week as it has in prior years.
I'm looking at a 5 wave structure down from the highs in early November followed by what currently appears to be a 3 wave structure up into where we currently are.
If the structure is correct, we should move up a little bit today into the golden zone that I've outlined on the chart and reject from there. If we do get that rejection and we start to take out some of the pivots which I outlined in the video, we should have increased confidence in the short idea.
Nothing is certain and all trades should have risk managed in some way or another, but we should see a move down to 5800 if this holds true. It's about a 180 point move from where we are now with only about 25 point risk.
Trade carefully and always ask questions in the comments below if you have them.
