long position on RTYMy strtegy is based on price action with the reading of certain indicators that I like whilerespecting all the values that define the stock maket
M2K1! trade ideas
small cap setupBuy: 1768 or lower
Stop: 1751
Notes: maybe small caps get close some of the wide performance gap so far this year
The model:
The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell.
On winning trades after 1 day take at least ⅓ of the position off and move stop to breakeven
Russell2000 H4 Potential Pitchfork Play Targeting 1850In this update we review the recent price action in the #Russell200 emini futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
RTY UpdateES and NQ MFI are creeping up because they went oversold yesterday but RTY MFI is dropping because it hi overbought this morning. Also, FDAX MFI hit overbought, so high probability of a gap down tomorrow or every index.
ES and NQ might melt up today but watch out for the gap tomorrow and I'd shy away from small caps.
Still all cash, waiting for Friday CPE numbers.
RTY UpdateThe algos are pumping money into RTY trying to hold that blue line. You can see MFI climbing.
Problem is MFI will go overbought Monday so we'll see a drop Tuesday, if not Monday afternoon. Plus Euro markets tanked so we might even see a gap down Monday. Seems to me garbage stocks are done tanking so there's really no choice but to go long here.
Crappy whipsaw market to trade.
RTY UpdateNo idea what the other indices are doing, looks like a melt up on ES and NQ because MFI is dropping while RSI is rising.
RTY is oversold, and PTON is up so it means short squeeze time, lol. Small long position, don't need the heartburn.
Elliott Wave Projects Zone where Russell (RTY) Rally May FailRussell 2000 (RTY) ended a 3 swing corrective rally from 10.13.2022 low at 2016.90 on 2.2.2023 high. From this level, the Index declines lower with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 2.2.2023 high, wave ((i)) ended at 1906.2 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 1970.10. The Index resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 1728.5 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 1800.8. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 1708 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Rally in wave 2 is now in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes.
Internal subdivision of wave 2 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 1779.4 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 1750.40. Wave ((c)) higher is in progress as 5 waves. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 1808.2 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 1785.30. Expect the Index to extend higher before it completes wave ((c)) of 2. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). This area comes at 1821.4 – 1865.4 where the rally in Russell may fail and the Index starts to resume lower. As far as pivot at 2.2.2023 high at 2016.9 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.
RTY UpdateAppears to be a complete pump and dump failure. I got bullish because of the buy volume the past couple of days, but it hit overbought on MFI and now is dropping. i think there's potential for it to stay oversold for a day or two when it gets there because it's dropping on much lower volume. Those that bought have to sell, and volume isn;t matching up yet.
Continued weakness on small caps or we could see reversal soon.?REjection of support level 3 (1730) three times in a row.
I think we could see this moving higher at least for short term.
Russell2000 False Break PlayIN this update we review the recent price action in the Russell2000 emini futures contract and identify a high probability trading pattern and price objectives to target
RTY UpdateRSI oversold again, but I wouldn't consider going long until ES and NQ also go oversold.
ES MFI has a LONG way to go before it hits oversold. Plus the market gave up on the short squeeze and lost all interest in garbage stocks. PTON down 7% now. Friday is when funds rebalance their portfolios, and I'd imagine they'd want to get rid of garbage stocks and move to dividend stocks. Flight to safety trade tomorrow, I think. Problem is ES MFI needs to go down....
RTY UpdateRSI hit oversold, MFI has stayed oversold.
No idea about gap direction tomorrow, but I'm sure this throws a reversal pattern.
looks creepysad but true salaries are runteeo rodeo onward, how to spend money when you are a fraud? wisely, yes...
RTY UpdateNot at all what I expected today, small caps leading the market down. I don't recommend a long position until RTY goes oversold.
Asia and Europe usually don't pump small caps, so it's probably toast this week. Chart pattern is extremely bearish.
Russell breaks-out of rangeThe Russell2000 CME_MINI:RTY1! breaks-out of range defined on the weekly timeframe with an upper limit ~1890. Additional the 18EMA crosses the 200EMA, which is also a bullish sign. SInce the last two days were very bullish, a small reversal may occur and offer oppertunity to enter trade. Additionally the COT commercial index for NASDAQ signals a bullish direction (Since a comparison of las Swing Highs and Lows of NASDAQ and Russell) exhibits a stronger uptrend for Russell, the Russell may out perform the NASDAQ.
About the timing: SInce the last days were bullish, I would wait for a small reversal into the last support area 1900-1930.
SL: 1830 (prior swing low)
1. Target: 2032 (last major high)
RR:~1.75
Manage your risks and make your own decisions.
RTYH2023 02 MAR 2023 (Candle basics)Some candle basics that are worth revisiting.
It almost seems intuitive. A long wick can very well represent a drastic change of course. Using the 1 and 4 hour is usually the better time frames to use when looking for major changes in direction.
If you rely only on wicks on smaller time frames, you can be deceived so its important to start with the bigger time frame and wok your way down.
You can see the situation here with the current candles. This would be a bad place to short. It May continue down sure, but with candles like this, the probability of this going higher does increase.
Look for wicks at previous demand and supply zones.
R2K trading at the 0.50 FibTrades at the most common retracement price. Risk equities may soon become less popular.
Amazing how these small caps appreciated from the COVID lows. Price may be expected to seek fair valuation...
somewhere in between.
Elliott Wave Projects Russell (RTY) Should Resume HigherCycle from 12.20.2022 low in Russell (RTY) ended with wave 1 at 2016.97 as a 5 waves impulse structure. The Index then pullback in wave 2. Subdivision of wave 2 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave (i) ended at 1986.3 and wave (ii) ended at 2015.60. Wave (iii) ended at 1938.8, wave (iv) ended at 1984.20, and final leg wave (v) ended at 1906.20 which completed wave ((a)).
Rally in wave ((b)) ended at 1970.30 with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure Up from wave ((a)), wave (w) ended at 1964.1 and dips in wave (x) ended at 1921.30. Wave (y) higher ended at 1970.30 which completed wave ((b)). The Index has resumed lower in wave ((c)) with internal subdivision as an impulse. Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 1931.3 and wave (ii) ended at 1968.60. Wave (iii) ended at 1885.4, and wave (iv) ended at 1921. Expect the Index to resume lower within wave (v) of ((c)) to complete wave 2. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)), which comes at 1791 – 1860.
Russell To Test Equality ObjectiveIn this update we review the recent price action in the Russell2000 futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
RTY 1 BUYPeace be upon you, merchants. An opportunity to buy. With a breach of support in 1915. As well as penetrating the descending channel. Which humiliates the power of buyers in the market. The price is moving up. In the coming days we can see. Price 2120. And the price of 2200
Russell 2000 - Potential Upward MovementRussell 2000 will continue its upward trend. Exit at 3rd supply zone
