HOD today, so far, is the POC from range 5/26/22 - 6/10/22See if this HOD holds and if so, I expect more downward pressure
M2K1! trade ideas
RTY: Top of the Channel ShortSeems like we are re-testing the top of the channel; good place for good return/risk ratio to target bottom of the channel.
Fundamentally, Russell should be strongest of the major indicies - being longest dollar (versus more internationally exposed names in S&P500 and NASDAQ100); technical targets are somewhat the same across the 3 indices; each targeting 14-16% downside from here assuming the floor breaks.
RTY UpdateOverbought again after the morning dip, looks like a melt up and 4 day short squeeze so not shorting anything at the moment aside from the put leg of my BITO strangle. Calls are now in the money so hopefully crypto goes pumptarded on Ponzi payday Friday.
I'm 75% sure this is a melt up, but if you're long I suggest some protection.
7/27/22 Breakout of mid and Long term balanceWill watch today for acceptance or failure out of mid and long term range.
M2K Swing trading Micro E-mini Future Russell 2000M2K 2022-07-25 Swing trade M2K 1 contract
Trend
- At the pane below, all indicators are beginning to reverse to a down trend
- All the moving averages (Ma-18-21, 50, 100, 200) are trending down, and in a synchronize
inverse order
Special condition
-The result reports of many big companies may influence this trade
Orders
- Short executed for 1 contract of the Future M2K, at 15h59 July 25 2022
- Stop order waiting placed over the recent high
- Lmt order waiting near the Bollinger-Low-Band
Money in play
- If stop exec -168$ (1817.0 - 1851.0) *5$ * 1 ctr minus 2$ (fees, slippage)
- If Lmt exec +578$ (1817.0 - 1701.0) *5$ * 1 ctr minus 2$ (fees, slippage)
Current Range PreFOMC morningHere is where we are prior to FOMC. Will FOMC move us out of current range?
M2K - Daytrading - Micro E-mini Future Russell 2000M2K 2022-07-26 15 min Daytrading 3 wins / 4 trades +100$
Each trade is explained on the chart
RTY UpdateNQ is tanking but RTY has more of a wave 4 type pattern, so small caps probably rally on the Fed tomorrow. MFI hit oversold, but the index didn't sell off much. IWM has a bullish pattern on the daily and intraday.
Small caps are relatively strong despite most garbage and retail stocks being in the category. Strange.
Anyways, bullish on small caps tomorrow for the usual Fed pump. Will wait for tomorrow and day trade I think.
So Far, we have returned and are staying in BalanceWe rejected higher so far, how far lower do we test?
RTY Daily down channelThe RTY daily time frame is in a down channel.
The market is at the top of the channel. If
resistance holds. The research says to expect the
market to push bearish towards the bottom of
the channel price point 1554.6 about -2,620
ticks below the market.
It will be a good idea to wait for the market to
close below the short term up trend line before
turning to the one hour time frame to look for
selling ideas towards the bottom of support.
RTY1! - Weekly Market Update, 7/25Dow futures remain contained this week by the GREY channel formation.
Channel structures have been adjusted accordingly for your reference.
Daily RTY , Do We Breakout?Todays close should give clues if we breakout or if we return to balance.
RTY - Will We Break Out of Range or Fail Back Into RangeI am waiting to see if we break out of range or fall back into range.
RTY UpdateRTY hit my first target, overbought on RSI and MFI along with NQ and ES
Funny thing is, I totally called market direction wrong on open, but made money by picking the right stock. That's the opposite of what usually happens to me when I call the market direction right but pick the wrong stock, lol. PDD is still red and looks like crap.
Not expecting a tank but I do expect at least a dip tomorrow because everything is overbought, TSLA earnings tonight, ECB tomorrow morning, and Thu is usually the weakest day during a bull run.
Chinese ADRs look pretty weak, will go down further with the market if it reverses here.
And oh, BTW, the gap filled as promised, lol. Keep an eye on futures gaps. Only works for US indices though.
Russell To Rollover From 1830'sIn this update we review the recent price action in the Russell2000 futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
RTY UpdateRSI overbought but it's obviously going for the gap fill
I guess I should've stayed bullish, lol. Wasn;t really sure yesterday.
I was expecting a gap down then up move yesterday and the market did the exact opposite so left me a bit confused, lol.
Missed this Ponzi Tuesday rally, not gonna chase it at this point. Gonna stay cash and wait until NFLX and TSLA earnings tonight, hopefully they tank the market so we can buy the dip. Bullish until RTY gap fill.
Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P and RussellHow to use related markets to complement each other? Definitely you can apply this technique to other related markets.
In this tutorial, I am seeing Nasdaq as a leading indicator for the rest may likely to follow.
i) Nasdaq bear trend was nicely formed, but not yet for the Dow Jones, S&P and Russell.
ii) Nasdaq in the short-term has also a confirmation for a rebound, and I believe the rest of the indices likely to follow subsequently.
Discussion:
• Drawing primary and secondary trendline
• Nasdaq has broken above, the rest should catch-up, why?
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Feel free to leave any comments below, I love to exchange ideas with you.
RTY UpdateRTY remains the only index futures with an open gap, but it looks like it's coiling.
Not really sure what the heck this market is doing, might be easier to buy back in when it goes oversold again since it still needs a gap fill. I think I'm gonna take a break this week.
Long Russell! - Trading w Commercials - Fading Speculators (COT)Looking at the net positions of the Commercials (Red Line), the Russell 2000 is at record high levels. Additionally, the small speculators (Blue Line - tough to see but it's blown up on lower indicator)) are very short compared to historical levels. The COT index on the bottom shows dark green when both commercials are maxed net long and small speculators are maxed net short. Use a daily chart with your favorite indicator/candlestick pattern to look for entry - be patient - don't forget a stop. See below for explanations of what you're looking at and what I'm talking about with COT
RISKS: The trend is down which makes this counter-trend trade
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
RTY1! - Weekly Market Update, 7/18/22Russell Futures remain bound by support below and resistance above which leaves us little to no opportunity to confirm a trade idea for this upcoming week.
This market like the other indexes remain very rangebound seeking a catalyst to drive prices in a direction.
Support and resistance structures have been adjusted accordingly for you review and reference.
I do not see any actionable ideas at this time. I will update midweek if need be.
Wish you many blessings and much prosperity!
