GBP/USD Strategic Insights: Q3 Breakouts and Q4 ProjectionsAnalyzing GBP/USD: A Journey Through Accumulation, Breakouts, and Forecasting
Q2 2024: The Accumulation Phase
During the second quarter of 2024, the British Pound entered a pronounced accumulation phase. Institutional buyers were actively engaged, positioning their trades to capitalize on future movements. This period set the stage for subsequent price actions and was crucial in understanding the currency's resilience.
Q3 2024: Strategic Movements and False Breakouts
As the third quarter commenced, the GBP/USD experienced a deceptive breakout to the downside, aligning perfectly with the Camarilla pivot support levels at S3 and S4. This false move highlighted the strength of these levels as key support zones, underscoring why initiating short trades—common among retail traders—was strategically questionable at this juncture.
By June 2024, the GBP/USD climbed towards $1.2800, briefly entering a distribution/accumulation phase, which prepped the market for an anticipated bullish continuation.
Mid-Q3 Breakout and Profit Realization
By mid-August 2024, propelled by institutional trading, GBP/USD convincingly broke past the R4 Camarilla level at $1.2950. This breakout targeted the R5 level at $1.3200, identified as the optimal take-profit point. This movement marked a significant transition from the previous range-bound market conditions, showcasing the effectiveness of strategic pivot level monitoring.
Anticipating Q4 2024: Calm Before the Next Move
Looking ahead to September 2024, expectations are set for subdued trading activity, with the GBP/USD likely oscillating between $1.3000 and $1.3200. This forecasted lull suggests another accumulation/distribution phase that could serve as a precursor to more definitive movements in the fourth quarter.
Conclusion and Forward Outlook
The trajectory of GBP/USD points towards stability in the near term, with potential gearing up for another significant movement as we approach the end of 2024. Traders should monitor these pivotal levels closely, as they offer valuable insights and strategic entry points. Given the currency’s recent history and the robust support demonstrated at key Camarilla levels, a bullish bias may be advisable heading into the next quarter, with careful attention to any shifts that might suggest a different course.
Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to navigate through these dynamic market phases and extract actionable insights to enhance our trading strategies.
M6B1! trade ideas
GBP/USD:Anticipating a Bearish Scenario for the British PoundFollowing our successful forecast on the British Pound (link below), we are now poised to take advantage of another shorting opportunity as the price retests the previous supply area. This retest suggests a possible bearish scenario on the horizon.
Our analysis is further supported by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates a notable increase in retail long positions. This influx of long positions among retail traders often precedes a bearish reversal, providing additional validation for our anticipated market movement.
As the British Pound retests the supply area, we foresee a potential new bearish impulse forming. This aligns with our strategic outlook, where we aim to capitalize on the expected downward momentum. The convergence of technical analysis and trader sentiment data strengthens our confidence in this bearish forecast.
In summary, we are preparing for a bearish scenario for the British Pound, leveraging the retest of the supply area and the insights gained from the COT report. This approach ensures we remain well-positioned to take advantage of the expected market movements. Stay tuned for further updates and detailed analysis.
Previous Forecast:
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British Pound (GBPUSD) is getting close to 2007 crash!!!
CoT index shows Commercials(blue line) are in 3-year extreme low AND Retailers(green line) are in extreme high. Almost every time we are in this situation the asset goes down. The last time was May 2021 you can see what happened afterwards.
This is the CoT indicator of commercials net positions. Commercials net position is getting close to 2007 level where the big sell off took place.
Here is the 5, 10, and 15-year seasonality trends indicating that the market typically reaches a peak around August first. Therefore, it is expected to decline from that point onward.
GBP (GBPUSD, 6B1!) Weekly Forex Forecast.... BULLISH!Bias is Bullish, overall.
Price has formed several +FVGs on the way to the DOL.
Potentially, a pullback to one can propel price higher to the draw on liquidity at 1.2810.
I do not think price pullback further than this +FVG at 1.2745. This is also the location of the
Volume Imbalance seen on the Daily TF.
3:1 RR on British Pound Futures Hey everyone, Lord MEDZ here! In today's video, I'm going to break down an exciting trade I caught on Pound Futures this past Friday. Utilizing the smart money concept and the Wyckoff aka Turtle Soup setup, I'll walk you through my thought process, entry points, and strategy. Don't miss out on this detailed analysis and how you can apply these techniques to your own trading. Let's dive in!
GBP (GBPUSD. 6BM2024, GBP FUTURES)... BULLISH!Bias is Bullish.
Came very close to the DOL, and
barely missed the FVG. I expect
both will be tapped next week.
The IFVG, price trading through
the swing high, and the +FVG, are
multiple confluences that support
the idea that price will find support
at these levels and continue higher.
Expecting price to tap the +FVG
before heading higher.
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May profits be upon you.
GBP (GBPUSD, 6B1!) From Bullish to BEARISHPrice is currently in a W/D1 -FVG. Therefore, I am Bearish.
Look at the position of price in the trading range. Reached into Premium last week, then back into Discount a bit. We Open this week with price heading up, in the near term.
Looking for the signature for sells.
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GBP (6B1!, GBPUSD) ... BEARISH!Bearish.
Price has raided an old swing
low, and then mitigated a +OB.
Expecting a bullish reaction in
the near term, up to the local
lows. The market will resume
the bearish trend afterwards.
I enjoy any feedback or questions in the comment section.
All opinions are welcome!
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GBP futures 4/11/2024Prior to CPI and Prior to 4 weeks before the CPI of 4/11/2024
We had 4 weeks of sell signals through COT report.
Date - Net position
03/19/24 -78,920
3/12/24 -78,920
3/5/24 -64,123
27/2/24 -51,590
Because of these net position changes I have decided to short GBP.
So far Cotton short trade is correct currently making 4%
AUD Lost .5%
EUR Lost .5%
POUND FUTURES SELL SHORTWaiting for rejection off the liquidity zone.
Then I will look to sell from that zone.
Selling only after the break below the HMA and the retest of the liquidity zone
**This is just my trading thought process and does not constitute as financial advice.
**Please trade with proper risk management*