6EH3 High: 1.0835 Low: 1.0600 HigherWeekly Kickoff levels are longer timeframe levels where we believe longer time traders will adjust inventories.
M6E1! trade ideas
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.07935
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish. To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.07935 where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly break the pivot at 1.05085 where the previous high was before heading down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.07935
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.07935 where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly break the pivot at 1.05085 where the previous high was before heading down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.07935
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.07935 where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly break the pivot at 1.05085 where the previous high was before heading down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.07935
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.07935 where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly break the pivot at 1.05085 where the previous high was before heading down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
6EH3 High: 1.0835 Low: 1.0600 HigherWeekly Kickoff levels are longer timeframe levels where we believe longer time traders will adjust inventories.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.07935
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.07935 where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly break the pivot at 1.05085 where the previous high was before heading down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.06680
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.06680 where the previous swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci line are located.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly break the pivot at 1.05085 where the previous high was before heading down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.06680
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.06680 where the previous swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci line are located.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly break the pivot at 1.05085 where the previous high was before heading down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Analysis of the trend and possible movements of the euroEuro trend according to the movement made, we can have an upward movement of the euro this week according to the hourly and daily trends.
(By following my page in Trading View, you can benefit from good signals, specialized in Euro )
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.06680
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the pivot at 1.05085, where the previous high is before heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.06680 where the previous swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci line are located.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.06680
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly break the pivot at 1.05085, where the previous high is before heading towards the 1st resistance line at 1.06680 where the previous swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci line are located.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the support at 1.03315, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
As we approach the last Fed/ECB meetings of the year.Last week, while the Federal Reserve changed its rhetoric from ‘hiking to fight inflation at all cost’ to ‘slow the pace of rate hike’, seismic waves rolled over the markets.
As we approach the last central bank meetings of the year, the ECB meets on (15th Dec), Fed on the (14th Dec). A temperature check on the expected path of rates for the 2 major central banks would give us a good sense to position ourselves.
The Fed
After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech last Wednesday at the Brookings Institution in Washington, one line in particular (“The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”) shifted the market’s perspective. With the USD weakening further and terminal rates repricing slower and lower than expected, markets seem to have priced in a 50-basis point hike by the Fed in its December meeting. A slowdown from the back-to-back 75 basis point hikes we have come accustomed to.
As noted in the chart above the EURUSD pair has generally moved alongside the dollar direction, should the dollar continue its tumble downwards, the EURUSD is likely to trade higher.
The ECB
After raising rates by 75 basis points in the last meeting to 1.5%, the ECB still faces mounting inflation. Market expectations still swing between a 50 to 75 bps hike for the upcoming ECB meeting as the Eurozone still struggles with high inflation. The ECB may also have more headroom to maneuver as current rates remain below the expected terminal rate and the 200 basis points hike still pales in comparison to the Fed’s 375 basis points move.
However, we do have to caveat that intricacies matter here, for example, the inflationary effects in the US are largely driven by the demand side, while in the Eurozone are driven by supply-side effects. Regardless, the next few days will remain key for any policymaker comments to guide the markets as the meeting date nears.
Policy timing and direction uncertainty put the EURUSD pair on our watchlist. The last time the 2 central banking policy timelines diverged, we called it out on one of our previous ideas. You can check out here .
Additionally, we spot an ascending triangle pattern on the chart which generally signifies a bullish continuation. With the previous ascending triangle breaking out in a textbook manner, we will watch if the current setup trades the same. Prices have also broken a previous support-turn-resistance level, which could prove as further conviction of the upward move.
With a clear technical setup and the potential for the ECB to surprise hikes to the upside, we lean bullish on the EURUSD pair. We set our stop at the 1.0440 level, and take profit level at 1.0900, with each 0.00005 increment per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equal to 6.25$.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Sources:
www.cmegroup.com
www.ecb.europa.eu
www.federalreserve.gov
Euro ready to continue decline - according to COT Data COT Data is pointing to the Euro ( CME:6E1! ) to continue its fall after seen a brief rally
For the last couple months, the large speculators have been accumulating so much Euro that is is becoming over-crowded (See the green line in the NET COT FO graph on the weekly chart). A small catalyst could send this currency back into a downward spiral, fueled by the speculators being overly long. I will be looking for my proprietary reversal signal to enter the trade and use sound risk management thereafter
Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
- Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.06680
Pivot: 1.05085
Support: 1.03315
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.06680 where the previous swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci line are located.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 1.05085, where the previous high is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
6E and EUR/USD short setupPrior volume has formed resistance at prices 1.05 and above. The most recent movement of price into this resistance area was followed by immediate rejection. The trade setup is a short entry at or close to 1.05, with a target price of 1.03; just above support.
Below 1.03 there are multiple supports that be broken: 1.01, and possibly 1.0 if 6E and EUR/USD return to the short-trend channel established August through November.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.05090
Pivot: 1.01315
Support: 1.03600
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.05090 where the previous swing high is located.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down breaking the support at 1.03600 where the 161.8% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the pivot at 1.01315, where the previous swing high is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.05090
Pivot: 1.01315
Support: 1.03600
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.05090 where the previous swing high is located.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down breaking the support at 1.03600 where the 161.8% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the pivot at 1.01315, where the previous swing high is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.05090
Pivot: 1.01315
Support: 1.03600
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish . To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.05090 where the previous swing high is located.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down breaking the support at 1.03600 where the 161.8% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the pivot at 1.01315, where the previous swing high is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1.05090
Pivot: 1.01315
Support: 1.03600
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bullish. To add to this bias, the price is currently above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.05090 where the previous swing high is located.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down breaking the support at 1.03600 where the 161.8% Fibonacci line is before heading towards the pivot at 1.01315, where the previous swing high is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: EURO FX Futures ( 6E1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 1.05090
Pivot: 1.01315
Support: 0.99625
Preferred case: The current bias for 6E1! on the H4 chart is bearish . To add to this bias, the price is currently crossing below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If the bullish momentum continues, expect price to possibly head towards the 1st resistance line at 1.05090 where the previous swing high is located.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down towards the pivot at 1.01315, where the previous swing high is located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
