Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with price breaking the ascending trend channel, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 1.07910 at the swing high to the support at 1.06185 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and overlap support. Additionally, there is a bearish divergence on the RSI indicator which further supports our bearish bias. Alternatively, price may reverse and rise to the resistance at 1.09570 at the overlap resistance.
M6E1! trade ideas
Potential Bullish Momentum On the h4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will bounce off the overlap support at the buy entry at 1.07430 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and rise to our take profit at 1.09480 in line with the overlap resistance. Alternatively, price may break support structure at our buy entry and drop to the stop loss at 1.06565 at the horizontal support.
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EURO FX FUTURES (6E1!), H1 Potential for Bullish MomentType : Bullish Momentum
Resistance : 1.07570
Pivot: 1.07085
Support : 1.06155
Preferred Case: With the MACD having a bullish momentum and prices moving above the ichimoku cloud , which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.07085 in line with overlap support to our 1st resistance at 1.07570 where the 61.8% fibonacci projection and swing high resistance are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1.06155 in line with the overlap support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 38.2% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: The most recent ECB announcement points to a rate rise in July. The pace is projected to be moderate, given the dangers of a recession based on the situation of the long-running conflict in Eastern Europe. As a result, we have a weak bullish bias.
EURO FX FUTURES (6E1!), H1 Potential for Bullish MomentType : Bullish Momentum
Resistance : 1.07570
Pivot: 1.06715
Support : 1.06155
Preferred Case: With the MACD having a bullish momentum and prices breaking the ichimoku cloud, which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 1.06715 in line with overlap support to our 1st resistance at 1.07570 where the 61.8% fibonacci projection and swing high resistance are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1.06155 in line with the overlap support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: The most recent ECB announcement points to a rate rise in July. The pace is projected to be moderate, given the dangers of a recession based on the situation of the long-running conflict in Eastern Europe. As a result, we have a weak bullish bias.
Volatility 19 May 22 Currency Futures Eur, Gbp Aud, Chf YenAUD Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5397 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.96%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 1.21%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.008
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 0.704
BOT 0.687
GBP Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5408 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.78%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.98%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.012
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1.246
BOT 1.222
EUR Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5408 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.65%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.82%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.009
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1.056
BOT 1.039
CHF Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5399 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.58%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.73%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.007
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 1.02
BOT 1.006
YEN Futures Futures 19 May 2022
Based on the HV measures from the last 5399 candles our expected volatility for today is around 0.75%
However, in order to increase our accuracy I am going to use a 1.25x multiplier => 0.93%
This is translated into a movement from the current opening point of 0.007
With this information our top and bottom , with close to 81% probability for today are going to be
TOP 0.0078 + 0.008
BOT 0.0078 - 0.008
EU Futures Full Fulcrum formedEntered 05/05/22 but will offer more entries next week unless Fulcrum is broken.
Reason For Entry: Full Fulcrum was forming with low probability of breaking due to volume during the Fulcrum so risk was limited. You will note we have weekly lows at the same level for 2 consecutive weeks followed by a considerable rally.
Timing is everything! While the general direction for the US Fed and the ECB are similar, their timelines differ greatly!
On the US Fed (USD) front, we are days away from the next FOMC meeting (4th May 2022) where market participants are expecting a 50 bps hike. On the ECB (EUR) front, the ECB is expected to taper its asset purchase program by early Q3, before it will consider any rate hikes.
The difference in timelines of the Fed and ECB could provide some interesting hints on where the EURUSD is heading in the short term. With the Dollar being the first mover here, we expect strength in the dollar to drive the EURUSD lower over the short term before the ECB firms up its hike schedule.
The EURUSD pair is also trading just below the 7- year support level. Zooming in on a shorter timeframe, we also spot a breakout and retest at this level, suggesting the move has begun.
Entry at 1.08070, stop above 1.12080. Targets are 1.06760 and 1.03835.
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Bullish Divergence in Euro FuturesBasically the same idea that I posted last week about the Bearish Divergence in $DXY but more time has passed, and it looks even more pronounced in the Euro itself.
Pick your poison: /6E, /M6E, EURUSD are all good Long candidates to play this idea. Another good option could be to short /SFX - which is the Small Exchange's US Dollar Futures contract. If you don't know about The Small Exchange, I'd highly recommend looking into their products.
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Controlling TL since Feb 10thTechonomic Trading Strategies has been looking for an area to short (scalp) the Euro. We shorted (@1.10755) after the second failed retest on the hour chart of a controlling TL that has been in place since Feb. 10th. In such volatile markets it's a double edge sword to have a such a tight stop @1.11020. However, during such volatile times, preservation of capital with tighter stops is a must in order to trade again another day.
Front running CPI on Thursday with analysis of strong CPIFeb 8th Techonomic Trading Strategies posted we were reversing our long position from a bounce off a multiyear trendline with anticipation of strong resistance holding with a hot CPI. Not only did we get it right, then Fed Gov. Bullard made comments of a 50-basis point hike in March and with the addition of possible Russian invasion of Ukraine this week in the news seemed to put wind to our back for this trade. We've held our position through the weekend an expect the yearly lows to be tested with-in the coming weeks. Techonomic Trading Strategies, 90% Technical Analysis with 10% Fundamental Analysis. Trading made simple.
Multiyear Trendline confluence Bounce updateOn January 31st and February 2, Techonomic Trading Analyst posted a confluence of 2 multiyear Trendlines coming together for the Euro with a clear divergence in Price and RSI. Additionally, we posted that in our opinion this move had legs on that merit alone and that the ECB rate Decision and follow up jargon by the ECB could add strength. Techonomic Trading Sytems (90%) Technical Analysis with (10%) Fundamentals. Trading made easy.