MCD1! trade ideas
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77305
Pivot: 0.76450
Support : 0.75615
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76450 where the overlap resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection are to the 1st support at 0.75615 in line with the swing low support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77305 where the swing high resistance is.
Fundamentals: As a result of the BoC rate increase of 100bps recently, we have a bullish bias on the Canadian Dollar. We'll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77305
Pivot: 0.76850
Support : 0.76430
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76850 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.76430 where the swing low support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77305 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: The BoC is expected to increase rates to 2.25%, a 75 bps increase, giving us a bullish bias on the Canadian Dollar .
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77305
Pivot: 0.76850
Support : 0.76430
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76850 in line with the pullback resistance to the 1st support at 0.76430 where the swing low support, -27.2% fibonacci expansion and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77305 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: The BoC is expected to increase rates to 2.25%, a 75 bps increase, giving us a bullish bias on the Canadian Dollar.
Canadian Dollar Futures (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77125
Pivot: 0.76835
Support : 0.76460
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 0.76835 in line with the overlap resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 0.76460 where the -27.2% fibonacci expansion and swing low support are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77125 where the pullback resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are.
Fundamentals: As sentiment over the BoC increasing rates by 75bps continues to grow, we have a bearish view of the canadian dollar.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77755
Pivot: 0.77410
Support : 0.76840
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline , we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 0.77410 in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 0.76840 where the swing low support and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head to the 1st resistance at 0.77755 where the swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci projection , 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Recent Canadian Dollar strength had been slightly reversed with Canadian GDP month-on-month being released at 0.3% (Previous: 0.7%) indicating a slow down in economic activity and growth, giving us a medium bearish view on the Canadian Dollar .
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77755
Pivot: 0.77410
Support : 0.76840
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline , we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 0.77410 in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 0.76840 where the swing low support and -61.8% fibonacci expansion are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head to the 1st resistance at 0.77755 where the swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci projection, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Fundamentals: Recent Canadian Dollar strength had been slightly reversed with Canadian GDP month-on-month being released at 0.3% (Previous: 0.7%) indicating a slow down in economic activity and growth, giving us a medium bearish view on the Canadian Dollar.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.78315
Pivot: 0.77760
Support : 0.77475
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and has broken out of descending trendline which supports our bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.77760 where the swing high resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Once we have upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.78315 in line with pullback resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 0.77475 in line with the overlap support.
Fundamentals: As oil prices climb due to the introduction of more sanctions from the G7, and as sentiment for a 75bps rate hike firms, look for the CAD to continue strengthening against the USD, giving us a medium bullish view.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 0.78315
Pivot: 0.77760
Support : 0.77475
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and has broken out of descending trendline which supports our bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.77760 where the swing high resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Once we have upside confirmation, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.78315 in line with pullback resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension .
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 0.77475 in line with the overlap support.
Fundamentals: As oil prices climb due to the introduction of more sanctions from the G7, and as sentiment for a 75bps rate hike firms, look for the CAD to continue strengthening against the USD, giving us a medium bullish view.
Canadian Dollar Seasonal PatternsCanadian Dollar Seasonal Patterns
Hey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Canadian Dollar Futures and Forex Market. The Canadian Dollar aka (The Loonie) follows an annual seasonal pattern with is also correlated with Oil prices. Knowing when to find these seasonal patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading of the Canadian Dollar.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 0.77455
Pivot: 0.76955
Support : 0.76460
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving below the ichimoku cloud and along the descending trendline which gives us a bearish bias that prices will drop to the pivot at 0.76955 where the 50% fibonacci retracement and swing low support are. Once there is downside confirmation that price has dropped to pivot , we would expect bearish momentum to carry prices to 1st support at 0.76460 where the swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance level at 0.77455 in line with the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection .
Fundamentals: A stronger than expected CPI data (Actual: 1.4% Expected 1.0%) overnight helped the CAD find some strength against the USD. With the CPI data reinforcing market expectation for the BoC to hike rates by 75bps at the next meeting, look for the CAD to continue strengthening into the US session, giving us a medium bullish bias for the canadian dollar.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77520
Pivot: 0.77025
Support : 0.76450
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving below the ichimoku cloud which supports our bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 0.77025 in line with the overlap resistance, 23.6% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 0.76450 in line with the swing low support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break through pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance level at 0.77520 in line with the overlap resistance and 78.6% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: There is an expectation of a rate hike of 75bps from the BoC in July and the markets might be starting to price in the policy adjustment which gives us a weak bullish bias.
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (6C1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum
Resistance : 0.77520
Pivot: 0.77310
Support : 0.76480
Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our pivot at 0.77310 in line with the swing high resistance to the 1st support at 0.76480 in line with the 161.80% fibonacci extension, 100% fibonacci projection and swing low support.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break the pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 0.77520 in line with the overlap resistance and 78.6% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: The prospect of a more aggressive Fed saw further gains in the USD/CAD pair. At the same time, an oversold CAD is deemed from the equally hawkish BoC and firm oil prices resulting in mixed to weak bullish view for the Canadian Dollar Future.
6C1! increase in the pricewe will see a continuation of the downtrend after the confirmation of the range breakout
6c1! increase in the priceafter having a forceful break of a strong resistance from a large candle with a large volume we will see an increase in the price
Short Canadian Dollar vs USD Low volume today on the CAD Futures.
Volatility contraction before the expansion. Negative divergence is also obvious.
Looking for /6C to move down about a cent from .795 to to about about .785 - back to the 50% Retracement
Can easily move down two cents though to .77435 - that will depend on the SPX
Six hour chart.
6C1! increase in the priceafter having a forceful break of a strong resistance from a large candle with a large volume we will see an increase in the price
6C1! increase in the pricewe will see an increase in the price after the breakout with strength of the range
High probability for reversal move next weekstrong support at level 0.77320 . rebound on it more than five time .
Canadian Dollar: anticipatory Symmetrical Triangle
Major Pattern: Weekly Descending Triangle
Anticipatory: Daily Symmetrical Triangle
Trigger points: 0.7821 or 0.7913
Detailed explanation of the harmonic model 5-05-0 pattern discovered by Scott Carney and published in his book “Harmonic Trading, Volume Two”
It is a unique model that has precise corrections of the Vibonachi ratio to check the health of the model.
Although the 5-0 pattern is a reflective pattern, because the 50% recovery level is the most important in the possible reflection area, and the correction ratio is slightly different from the Bat or Gartley pattern.
The 5-0 category falls within a family of 5 point harmonious reflection models and is essentially defined by the B point, which is mandatory for all compatible patterns.
The basic pattern assumption is to determine reactions after finishing the opposite direction, and 5-0 patterns usually represent the first retreat to reflect the large direction.
In many cases, the AB rib of structure is the final failing wave of direction.
“The buying pattern”
-Rib 0X beginning of formation of model structure.
XA rib does not require a certain correction, but provided it does not break the top of the rib 0X.
- AB rib between fibonachi extensions 1.13 to 1,618 from XA rib.
-C point between fibonachi extensions 1.618 to 2,224 from AB rib.
-Dot D from here we need to see one lower final comeback complete at the BC Correction Level 50.
- CD rib should D be equal in AB rib length.
“The Selling pattern”
-Rib 0X starting to be the model structure.
The XA rib does not require a certain correction, but provided that the bottom of the rib is not broken.
- AB rib between fibonachi extensions 1.13 to 1,618 from XA rib.
-C point between fibonachi extensions 1.618 to 2,224 from AB rib.
-Dot D from here we need to see one lower final comeback complete at the BC Correction Level 50.
- CD rib should be equal in AB rib length.
Take a look at some of our previous analyzes with this analysis
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Canadian Dollar - Short
With four naked points of control below - which is very unusual it's safe to say the CAD has some backtracking to do.
Most likely they will be taken out all very quickly.
News bomb like a high CPI number might do the trick to send the DXY higher and the CAD lower.
Personally I am short in the futures marketing targeting the last VPOC.
MCD1 CADUSD Bullish ReversalCad USD is reaching an important area in where price could stop the bearish price action and reverse. It is important to watch carefully the area in order to determine if there is a valid bullish opportunity. Target one is the previous high, target two is the marked area.
