CAD longincredible rally on oil this morning, CAD has not budged at all, good chance it may follow up on oil. Will be monitoring the euro (for USD strength) to make sure it doesn't make new lows
MCD1! trade ideas
Canadian Dollar Futures: Possible Lower Move IntradayLooks like an incomplete correction. Price could be doing an EW 3 wave retracement with the channel as the second wave. If price takes out the topside of the channel the idea is wrong. The risk is therefore limited. Crude oil being up today will not help this cause.
Week Plan: Probably still bullishIt's on the 5th wave but it could definitely go farther because it has a POC as a target and a 1.618 extension as a target.
Will really be watching to see what it does if it hits the POC. Expecting sharp down move from there.
CAD SHORTCad is about to puke, only worry is oil currently ripping, euro is at lows, obv is crushing new lows, overall downtrend.
Bullish on double bottom at value area low clusterTwo volume profiles agree on the value area low region which also maps to a fib pullback area.
Looking for double bottom type price action in the green box zone for a long.
Bullish if double bottomComing into fib zone and value area low. Double bottom would be good area to find a long
CANADIAN DOLLAR FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, CMETrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 0.7549
Stop Loss (SL) : 0.75685
Take Profit (TP) : 0.74975, 0.74245
Description
D6H2019 formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (0.7549) and place stop after 0.618 level (0.75685). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (0.74975) and 0.74245
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $280,000
Risk Management (1%) : $2,800
Position Sizing
$0.00005 = +-$5/std-contract
Commission fee = -$4.94/std-contract
EP to SL = $0 = -$195
Contract size to open = 14 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.01 = +$515
EP to TP#2 = $0.01 = +$1,245
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$69.16
Loss = -$2,730
Gain#1 = +$3,605
Gain#2 = +$8,715
Total Gain = +$12,320
Risk/Reward Ratio = 4.4
Range tradingPlanning to trade the range shown by red and green rectangles.
Will not blindly fade the range but only with shorter time frame signal as confirms.
Large attractor POC above should be respected, it could definitely pull price up there.
Also the huge low volume pocket below should be respected and could send price shooting below if n support is found when price tests there.
Will be trading under the assumption that price recently made a large move and therefore needs to consolidate. Will trade the edges of the range with small stops because if it breaks the range there's no point in standing in front of the potentially large move.
Too close to POC for swing trade6C recently completed a 5 wave impulse down then sharply retraced almost back to the large POC.
Expecting it to build a base for a while before making another large move like it did at the end of the 5th wave.
The fact that it's right next to the point of control makes that a likely next target, and if it gets sucked into the value area convincingly then it would make sense for it to try for the value area high.
The value area low might provide good support.
Overall kind of bullish but the value area low support at 0.74260 is pretty far away. If it goes there it could be a good buying entry.
Is too close to the POC right now to be a good swing trade.
ShortShort from .75620 earlier today, made chart late. Plan to hold to near session end around 3:30 or target
CANADIAN DOLLAR STRENGTH IN 2019D61!
looking at a completed correction on the cad futures; today there's big news so we should expect a massive pop in the canadian currency.
December Canadian Dollar Bearish GartleyAfter strong gains by the CAD and news of the USMCA the CAD is setting up for a bearish Gartley. RSI is nearing top levels. New pivots have been created. CAD having trouble staying above R2 at .78255. Estimate fall back to pivot and bottom channel.
Buy D61! @ .78185Buy D61! @ .78185
RSI14 crossed above 60 level.
Drive by resolution of trade issues between USA and Canada.
December Canadian Dollar downtrend - Head and ShouldersThe Canadian Dollar is trapped in a downtrend and is building out the last shoulder of an H&S. A break through R1 and out of the downtrend would negate the head and shoulders. R1 at .77195 is significant resistance for upward movement. Waiting for confirmation of H&S when the market reverses down toward pivot at .76560 and continues through. Since the right shoulder is not very high, expect drop to S2 at .75530. Outside chance of a double bottom at .75020, unless of course the USD goes up and Oil drops significantly, then we might have a larger than expected run.
D6U2018 (1d)Trading Signal
Long Position (EP) : 0.7632
Stop Loss (SL) : 0.76095
Take Profit (TP) : 0.7703, 0
Description
D6 formed Double Repo Failure Buy at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Buy Limit at 0.382 Level (0.7632) and place stop after 0.618 level (0.76095). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (0.7703) and 0
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $150,000
Risk Management (1%) : $1,500
Position Sizing
$0.1 = +-$10 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.47/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $0.00225 = -$225/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 7 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.0071 = +$710 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $0 = +$0 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$34.58
Loss = -$1,575
Gain#1 = +$4,970
Gain#2 = +$0
Total Gain = +$4,970
Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.09
Canadian Dollar Futures D6U2018 D1Trading Signal
Long Position (EP) : 0.76325
Stop Loss (SL) : 0.76095
Take Profit (TP) : 0.7722,
Description
D6U formed Double Repo Failure Buy at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Buy Stop at 0.382 Level (0.76325) and place stop after 0.618 level (0.76095). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (0.7722) and
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $48486
Risk Management (1%) : $484.86
Position Sizing
$0.00005 = +-$5 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.47/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $0 = -$230/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 2 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.01 = +$895 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $0 = +$0 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$9.88
Loss = -$460
Gain#1 = +$1790
Gain#2 = +$0
Total Gain = +$1790
Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.81
September Canadian Dollar ChannelCAD is a trapped in a three drives downward channel. RSI is really close so either we will get a breach of the channel above pivot, or another lower run below pivot to S1 at .75111
CAD Future SEP18 (1d)Trading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 0.76095
Stop Loss (SL) : 0.7632
Take Profit (TP) : 0.75455, 0.74815
Description
D6 formed Double Repo Failure Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (0.76095) and place stop after 0.618 level (0.7632). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (0.75455) and 0.74815
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $133,000
Risk Management (1%) : $1,330
Position Sizing
$0.1 = +-$10 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.47/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $0.00225 = -$225/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 6 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.0064 = +$640 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $0.0128 = +$1,280 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$29.64
Loss = -$1,350
Gain#1 = +$1,920
Gain#2 = +$3,840
Total Gain = +$5,760
Risk/Reward Ratio = 4.18
CAD Future SEP18 (1d)Trading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 0.76105
Stop Loss (SL) : 0.76325
Take Profit (TP) : 0.75455, 0.74815
Description
E6 formed Double Repo Failure Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (0.76105) and place stop after 0.618 level (0.76325). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (0.75455) and 0.74815
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $133,000
Risk Management (1%) : $1,330
Position Sizing
$0.1 = +-$10 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.47/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $0.0022 = -$220/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 6 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.0065 = +$650 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $0.0129 = +$1,290 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$29.64
Loss = -$1,320
Gain#1 = +$1,950
Gain#2 = +$3,870
Total Gain = +$5,820
Risk/Reward Ratio = 4.31
Canadian Dollar: Trade for Bearish Continuation I have a conditional order placed - if a new high is made before then I will wait for the next set-up.
Canadian Dollar Bear CypherSeptember Canadian dollar tracks sideways and lower. As Crude goes, so goes the CAD. If production is increased overseas, this market will continue to trend lower. Bear target right now is S2 .76480, followed by S3 at .75755. RSI triangle will need to be breached for any significant downward action. 20 day MA becomes resistance for any upward movement. This is also were major trades had taken place. Watch for false break outs above the 20 day MA.
